Game Thread: Saints in Arrowhead

[Fountain City Blues]

Raiders and Broncos seem like solid bets to win. Keep pace. Buffalo is increasingly concerning me as a team that may have gotten their shit together, that would make the WC race a pain in the ass.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Playoff Odds coming into 10/18 per FO in the AFC West. One thing to note here is KC's DAVE actually goes up 2.0% to put them over at 10.8% (9th overall) against Denver's 10% in week 9 if Justin Houston returns.

Division

KC: 37.8%
Den: 34.3%
Oak: 21.3%
SD: 6.7%

Playoffs:

Den: 60.2%
KC: 58.3%
Oak: 49.1%
SD: 20.8%

Bye:

Den: 24.0%
KC: 22.0%
Oak: 14.8%
SD: 3.4%

Basically, it's still pretty crowded, and nobody has really separated themselves in particular with the exception of SD already have 2 divisional losses, and being 2-4. The AFCW overall has some teams that compel in certain directions. We will see where it takes us.

DAVE:

Den 10.0%: 10th
KC 8.8%: 12th
SD: 5.9%: 13th
Oak: -0.7%: 18th

DVOA:

Den: 12.0%: 9th
SD: 7.8%: 13th
KC: 6.7%: 14th
Oak: -0.2%: 18th

 

[cdumler7]

Playoff Odds coming into 10/18 per FO in the AFC West. One thing to note here is KC's DAVE actually goes up 2.0% to put them over at 10.8% (9th overall) against Denver's 10% in week 9 if Justin Houston returns.

Division

KC: 37.8%
Den: 34.3%
Oak: 21.3%
SD: 6.7%

Playoffs:

Den: 60.2%
KC: 58.3%
Oak: 49.1%
SD: 20.8%

Bye:

Den: 24.0%
KC: 22.0%
Oak: 14.8%
SD: 3.4%

Basically, it's still pretty crowded, and nobody has really separated themselves in particular with the exception of SD already have 2 divisional losses, and being 2-4. The AFCW overall has some teams that compel in certain directions. We will see where it takes us.

DAVE:

Den 10.0%: 10th
KC 8.8%: 12th
SD: 5.9%: 13th
Oak: -0.7%: 18th

DVOA:

Den: 12.0%: 9th
SD: 7.8%: 13th
KC: 6.7%: 14th
Oak: -0.2%: 18th

It is interesting that they view Oakland as the worst team in the league by some of the stats out there. Honestly I would agree with some of that as some of their wins are just unsustainable and I could see them drop a few here. 2 straight games on the East Coast where they have struggled and then home game against the Broncos. Going to be a fun race for sure but these next few weeks I do think we will start to see some separation by a couple of games from the top-2 teams in the division and the bottom-2.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

It is interesting that they view Oakland as the worst team in the league by some of the stats out there. Honestly I would agree with some of that as some of their wins are just unsustainable and I could see them drop a few here. 2 straight games on the East Coast where they have struggled and then home game against the Broncos. Going to be a fun race for sure but these next few weeks I do think we will start to see some separation by a couple of games from the top-2 teams in the division and the bottom-2.

As much as I am down on Oakland, those two Florida teams aren't very good and profile as teams the Raiders should beat as much as I want to put them down as losses. Both Bortles and Winston are prone to backbreaking turnovers and neither team will stop Oakland's offense in my opinion, especially if Murray is back. If I am Oakland I am just hoping the longer the season goes the better the defense gets discipline wise.

I suspect the Broncos will thump Oakland pretty bad in the first meeting unless something changes for them on defense. That defense looking at the game is extremely predictable and easy to manipulate. OC's around the league are going to be giddy if basic motion presnap can get matchups like Albert Wilson on... Khalil Mack. No Bueno.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

My favorite play of the game, btw.

 

[cdumler7]

As much as I am down on Oakland, those two Florida teams aren't very good and profile as teams the Raiders should beat as much as I want to put them down as losses. Both Bortles and Winston are prone to backbreaking turnovers and neither team will stop Oakland's offense in my opinion, especially if Murray is back. If I am Oakland I am just hoping the longer the season goes the better the defense gets discipline wise.

I suspect the Broncos will thump Oakland pretty bad in the first meeting unless something changes for them on defense. That defense looking at the game is extremely predictable and easy to manipulate. OC's around the league are going to be giddy if basic motion presnap can get matchups like Albert Wilson on... Khalil Mack. No Bueno.

Part of me wonders how Del Rio got this reputation for being a good Defensive minded guy. His defenses are not hard to figure out and he just keeps pounding this idea that players are required to fit his scheme not the other way around. And he also did that quite often with Von Miller here in Denver of sending him out in coverage instead of getting after the QB. I understand doing it maybe a handful of times a season just to shock some people like the Broncos did in the AFC Championship game this past year where Von shocked Tom Brady when he dropped into coverage and picked off a pass but every game as Broncos fans we would see multiple plays with Von in coverage.

I guess to me I see the Raiders losing to Jacksonville. They have the offensive fire power to stick with the Raiders and defensively they have shown just a bit better than the Raiders so far this year. Throw in the 10 a.m. start time and homefield advantage I just think the Jaguars could find a way to get a win. Wouldn't shock me to see Oakland win both but I think they go 1-1 on this road trip.

And I hope you are right about the Broncos thumping the Raiders. The more I watch the Raiders honestly the less I am impressed. They have a good not great offense and might be the worst defense in football or at least pushing New Orleans for that honor.

 

[cdumler7]

My favorite play of the game, btw.

Like I said that system is a mess. You throw in just how many new players they have and all the miscommunications going on and it is a recipe for disaster as we have seen. I did hear a Raiders media guy get after the fans this past week about how they keep saying just have patience with this unit as they are too talented not to get it together and the guy ripped on the fans saying "it is not happening this year they are a bad unit and will be a bad unit throughout the season so just get used to the offense having to win the game."

 

[Black Adam]

Raiders and Broncos seem like solid bets to win. Keep pace. Buffalo is increasingly concerning me as a team that may have gotten their shit together, that would make the WC race a pain in the ass.

not so sure about the Raiders as they kinda got exposed a bit last Sunday...

imo the Jags have a good shot to win this one. course I COULD be wrong...

 

[Black Adam]

Part of me wonders how Del Rio got this reputation for being a good Defensive minded guy. His defenses are not hard to figure out and he just keeps pounding this idea that players are required to fit his scheme not the other way around. And he also did that quite often with Von Miller here in Denver of sending him out in coverage instead of getting after the QB. I understand doing it maybe a handful of times a season just to shock some people like the Broncos did in the AFC Championship game this past year where Von shocked Tom Brady when he dropped into coverage and picked off a pass but every game as Broncos fans we would see multiple plays with Von in coverage.

I guess to me I see the Raiders losing to Jacksonville. They have the offensive fire power to stick with the Raiders and defensively they have shown just a bit better than the Raiders so far this year. Throw in the 10 a.m. start time and homefield advantage I just think the Jaguars could find a way to get a win. Wouldn't shock me to see Oakland win both but I think they go 1-1 on this road trip.

And I hope you are right about the Broncos thumping the Raiders. The more I watch the Raiders honestly the less I am impressed. They have a good not great offense and might be the worst defense in football or at least pushing New Orleans for that honor.

you wouldn't be the only one. guess we'll see, though...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Sigh, Gaines is out again.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

It counts, but oh man Zombo and White are bad.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Quarterback grade: Alex Smith, 70.7

Alex Smith was his typical self, as he didn’t push the ball down the field aggressively, but was able to keep the chains moving with his efficiency. On throws that traveled less than 10 yards through the air, he completed all but one of his 14 attempts. He had a perfect QB rating (158.3) against the blitz, as he completed seven of nine throws when faced with an extra rusher for 120 yards and both of his touchdowns.

Top offensive grades:

RB Spencer Ware, 75.9

TE Travis Kelce, 73.1

OT Mitchell Schwartz, 72.5

WR Jeremy Maclin, 72.2

WR Chris Conley, 71.0

Strong O-line play keeps Smith clean

Despite Smith completing just 17 passes, five different receivers tallied multiple catches. RB Spencer Ware had the most productive day through the air, as his 46-yard screen pass TD in the first quarter put the Chiefs on the scoreboard quickly. While the only offensive linemen to make the top five grades was RT Mitchell Schwartz, the line’s outstanding pass blocking left Smith with plenty of time to find open targets. The Chiefs yielded just three total pressures on the day, with no player giving up more than one.

Top defensive grades:

S Daniel Sorensen, 86.2

ILB Ramik Wilson, 82.8

S Ron Parker, 82.6

DE Jaye Howard, 82.4

CB DJ White, 80.8

Second-year ILB Wilson has career day in first appearance of the season

ILB Ramik Wilson played just 21 total snaps, but seemed to make an impact on every play. Despite the low volume, he racked up eight solo tackles (10 total) with three total defensive stops. While he gave up catches all three times he was targeted, he yielded a grand total of just 13 yards. S Daniel Sorensen also had a huge day, as he had an interception and a sack to go with four total defensive stops.

I haven't seen anything but the broadcast view, but I don't believe DJ White was the best CB on the field for even a nanosecond.

 

[Clayton]

I haven't seen anything but the broadcast view, but I don't believe DJ White was the best CB on the field for even a nanosecond.

White was the one that got trucked near the end of the game giving up a big play, right? I tend to agree that he can't be #1.

Berry and Parker caused the turnovers IIRC so that's big. Contributions all over but Ware is playing like a top 5 rb