royals trade with tampa bay

[Illinest]

Not particularly important to go through all of the nuts and bolts. basically Dayton Moore traded the best pure hitting prospect in the minors and a few other prospects of fair to good potential for Shields and a relief pitcher.

KLaw remarked that this is the kind of trade that GMs make when they're under pressure to improve the team's performance quickly and he suggests that this will be the trade that provides final justification for Dayton Moore's firing. Not now of course, but a year or two from now when Shields hasn't helped as much as they thought he would and Wil Myers is tearing up the majors.

It reminds me of a certain Matt Morris trade and the decision to draft Moskos over Wieters.
It also makes me wonder how long it'll be before NH starts to panic. When that happens are we going to see Josh Bell and Alen Hanson traded for a geriatric Roy Halladay?

 

[thecrow124]

I would be on the phone now with Tampa to see if they would take Garrett Jones for Odorizzi. Probably wouldn't happen, but it would be worth a shot. Tampa still needs a bat to compete and the Pirates need pitching.

 

[element1286]

Not particularly important to go through all of the nuts and bolts. basically Dayton Moore traded the best pure hitting prospect in the minors and a few other prospects of fair to good potential for Shields and a relief pitcher.

KLaw remarked that this is the kind of trade that GMs make when they're under pressure to improve the team's performance quickly and he suggests that this will be the trade that provides final justification for Dayton Moore's firing. Not now of course, but a year or two from now when Shields hasn't helped as much as they thought he would and Wil Myers is tearing up the majors.

It reminds me of a certain Matt Morris trade and the decision to draft Moskos over Wieters.
It also makes me wonder how long it'll be before NH starts to panic. When that happens are we going to see Josh Bell and Alen Hanson traded for a geriatric Roy Halladay?

Not concerned with NH doing something like that. He is smart enough to know that would end his career as a GM forever. While NH may not be a great/good GM, but he is certainly competent. Dayton Moore has shown proclivities to be an idiot even when not under pressure for his job.

Anyway, horrendous trade for KC. Tampa seems to have tremendous rep, as they always win every deal, and have some of the dumber GM's falling over themselves to give away their best prospects or good but not great players, re Matt Garza to Cubs.

 

[stillmatic32]

Yeah when someone is ready to make that move, the Rays will always be there. Somehow.

 

[thecrow124]

Looking back I don't really think this is such a bad idea for KC. They have shown an ability to develop hitting prospects and graduate them to the major leagues. At the same time they have shown an ability to not develop pitchers, other than Greinke.
While it is not ideal to give up a guy like Myers, it also sin't like he is Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera or Albert Pujols. He may develop into a very good player but there is also a 50% chance that he flames out.
That being said when we look back in a few years, the numbers may skew toward Tampa, but when you have the offensive core that KC has you can't continually play for next year, at some point you have to nut up and make moves to fill the holes you have. I say this basically there is going to come a day when the Pirates are going to have to trade pitching to fill the holes they have from their inability to develop hitters.

 

[element1286]

To me it's a math equation:

Wil Myers: 15% complete bust (0 WAR/year) + 15% below average regular (1 WAR/year) + 25% average regular (3 WAR/year) + 25% all star (5 WAR/year) + 20% super star (7 WAR/year) = 0 + .15 + .75 + 1.25 + 1.4 = 3.55 WAR/year for 6 years at minimal cost.

James Shields: Average WAR/year past 5 years = 3.92 WAR/year
So I would probably go with this type of projection for Shields: 10% injured/bust (0 WAR/year) + 25% slight dip in performance (3 WAR/year) + 25% same performance (4 WAR/year) + 25% slight improvement in performance (5 WAR/year) + 15% large improvement (7 WAR/year) = 0 + .75 + 1 + 1.25 + 1.05 = 4.05 WAR/year for 2 years, at 10+ million per.

I know KC got Davis as well, but the Rays also got a few more good prospects. So I think this is a clear win for Tampa.

Plus KC is a below average team, Davis and Shields don't make them even a playoff team, not sure it makes them a .500 team. If they were a 90-win team, and this put them over the top, I wouldn't hate it, but I would understand it.

 

[thecrow124]

Element I am not so sure I agree with you last statement. KC was a poor team last year, but I expect Homer and Moustakas to rebound this year and Davis and Shields are not the only pitchers added. Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie are also in the rotation. Guthrie has had his problems, but has good enough stuff and Santana is only 1 year removed from being a very good pitcher and is a candidate for a big bounceback.

If Myers is as good as I think he can be, he could price himself out of Tampa by season #4.

Like I said though Tampa probably wins the trade in the long run, but if KC makes the playoffs then it was probably a worthwhile trade.

 

[element1286]

I agree Hosmer and Moustakas should rebound, although I'm not sure how much.

Ervin Santana was horrendous last year, and is losing velocity on his FB, and gaining velocity on his slider/change, which is a very worrisome. Even if he rebounds, I can't imagine he is more than a 1-2 WAR pitcher. Guthrie is what he is 2 WAR a year.

Both improvements for sure, but best case scenario they are an 85 win team, IMO. And the organization isn't deep in the high minors. Anyway, we'll probably have to agree to disagree here.

 

[thecrow124]

On a tangent from the original post, looking at the price of starting pitchers right now, I see 2 things.

1. We got a steal in our trade for Wandy Rodriguez.

2. We should be actively trying to trmade Wandy Rodriguez, AJ Burnett and James McDonald. Maybe not trade all three, but the return we could get for one or two of them could fill our holes over the next couple seasons.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah starting pitching is going at a very high premium right now. I agree if the can find a taker for any of the three and get high value that will help this team 2 years from now with Cole and maybe the arrival of Taillon that would be smart. I doubt this year coming up they will be much of anything.

Back to the topic I doubt NH would do something like this because what made this trade look even worse for the Moore and Royals was the fact he tendered Hochevar out of desperation prior to the trade. The reports are he might make 4.4 Million next season.

 

[magnumo]

The starting pitcher market makes cutting Karstens look worse and worse.

The ONLY thing that will make me believe otherwise is if Karstens turns out to have some kind of long-term physical issue. Presumably, we will discover whether that's the case before the off-season ends.

On one hand, I haven't read about any interest in Karstens from other teams.

On the other, Huntington has recently been quoted as saying that the Pirates are continuing to stay in touch with Karstens, and would like to re-sign him (presumably, at a salary less than he would have received in arbitration).

 

[thedddd]

The starting pitcher market makes cutting Karstens look worse and worse.

The ONLY thing that will make me believe otherwise is if Karstens turns out to have some kind of long-term physical issue. Presumably, we will discover whether that's the case before the off-season ends.

On one hand, I haven't read about any interest in Karstens from other teams.On the other, Huntington has recently been quoted as saying that the Pirates are continuing to stay in touch with Karstens, and would like to re-sign him (presumably, at a salary less than he would have received in arbitration).

Thats what I find interesting, there has to be something going on. Almost like teams know he is coming back to Pittsburgh or there is an injury.

 

[thecrow124]

I think the deal with Karstens is simply that he sees himself as a starter and every team in baseball sees him as a reliever. He wants starter money, which is why we non-tendered him, and no one wants to pay him that. I could be wrong, but that is my best guess.

 

[thedddd]

Very valid point crow.

It is bit interesting the value of some Pitchers recently:
Gorzelanny: 2yrs 6 million
Mike Adams: 2 yrs 12 million
Pelfrey: 1 yr 4 million
Villanueva: 2 yr 10 million
Francis: 1yr 1.5 million
Don't get me started on Correia Twins must like overpaying see Pelfrey also!

Honestly I think all overpaid but with those numbers out there I don't blame Karstens wanting more. When I get a second I will look at the WAR values of each to see where he would fit in.

 

[thedddd]

Very valid point crow.

It is bit interesting the value of some Pitchers recently:
Gorzelanny: 2yrs 6 million
Mike Adams: 2 yrs 12 million
Pelfrey: 1 yr 4 million
Villanueva: 2 yr 10 million
Francis: 1yr 1.5 million
Don't get me started on Correia Twins must like overpaying see Pelfrey also!
added - Lariano 2yr 14million by the Pirates
Honestly I think all overpaid but with those numbers out there I don't blame Karstens wanting more. When I get a second I will look at the WAR values of each to see where he would fit in.

..

 

[thedddd]

Villanueva 1.5
Karstens 1.45
Mike Adams 1.05
Francis .95 (L)
Gorzelanny .75 (L)
Pelfrey .45
Correia -.15
Liriano -.15 (L)

Wasn't that much but all I did was average out their last two years of service and put them in order of WAR. Not sure what Karstens WAR would be as a straight reliever but with his value over the rest of these players I am surprised he is still out there.

The Pirates and Twins really messed up with their signings of Correia and Liriano.

 

[thedddd]

Villanueva 1.5
Karstens 1.45
Mike Adams 1.05
Francis .95 (L)
Gorzelanny .75 (L)
Pelfrey .45
Liriano .15 (L)
Correia -.15

Wasn't that much but all I did was average out their last two years of service and put them in order of WAR. Not sure what Karstens WAR would be as a straight reliever but with his value over the rest of these players I am surprised he is still out there.

The Pirates and Twins really messed up with their signings of Correia and Liriano.

Corrected...

 

[thedddd]

Well not sure where that site got their numbers so I just went to fangraphs (like I should have in the first place.


Francis 2.2 (L)
Liriano 1.45 (L)
Mike Adams 1.35
Karstens 1.3
Villanueva .9
Pelfrey .65
Gorzelanny .45 (L)
Correia .4

Francis is the best value but Liriano is a little better than my original numbers but not worth 7 million for two years.