Regular season -- 2nd half

[JohnU]

It's apparently lights out now in Wrigley.
Contending depends partly on the competition. I am not liking our chances for the next 4 years if the Cubs can sign AC.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's better to have a guy like Chapman than to be facing him in a one run game, but the Cubbies success over the next few years is dependent on all the same factors that can derail any other team.

Injuries, especially to a team's rotation can lay to ruins the best laid plans. The Cardinals looked like world beaters last season and were bounced from the playoffs in the first series. Now that great 2015 pitching staff looks like a distant memory.

 

[JohnU]

Gotta agree that the Cubs are apparently in it to win it this year. Their rotation will soon need an upgrade, but who knows ... maybe all of them will. I have not counted the Cardinals out this year -- yet.

 

[JohnU]

Events of the past couple of days cause me some pause over the idea that "it's a business."
Clearly it is the sort of "business" that values many of the same qualities that McDonald's promotes.
The idea that the Reds will improve their "business" because they can trade Jay Bruce for 2 or 3 other guys we never heard of ... how in fuck does that fucking help the fucking Reds?
Bruce naturally is putting on a show-me clinic in SF, probably getting groover balls from pitchers who want to see him traded to the Giants.
I am also reminded that Chapman, despite his aura, never won a ring with the Reds either.
A 103 mph fastball is about the same as a 69 mph curve if the guy can't hit.

 

[eburg5000]

I haven't seen anything, that makes me think Cody Reed is ready for the Big Leagues. At least Lamb put together some good games. But I am not sure what the Reds can do. If they send Reed down they will be short 2 starters, and Finnegan seems to be running out of gas

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Cody Reed has the velocity and repetoir to be a good MLB starter. What he hasn't figured out is how to pitch. He throws hard and harder. When he learns how to throw his secondary pitches at the speed they are most effective he will be fine. He over throws his slider early in games and it doesn't react the way it should. It's in the mitt before it breaks. Dropping a few MPH 's would allow it to have good depth breaking through the hitting zone.

Should he be learning at the MLB level or MiLB? MLB service time is worth the price of gold. The other question is are these guys getting MLB quality coaching at the developmental level and MLB level?

 

[eburg5000]

It's either they are not getting quality coaching or the players are stupid.

Then it's easy for me to sit here and judge. At the ML level, They are a lot of guys that can throw the ball through a brick wall, but not as many who can hit their spot. location is the key, and that can't be taught. If a pitcher misses just an inch the wrong way. it could be hit out of the ball park. Part of the coaches job is finding the spots, and making sure the pitcher knows where they are.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Location, location, location...
Couldn't agree more Mr. Eburg.

With the amount of data out there, I'm sure scouting reports are pretty definitive on hitters with a big enough sample size. No pitcher hits his intended location everytime and hopefully his stuff is good enough to get away with it when he doesn't.

Everyone loves the hard throwers, but if they can't mix in change of speeds with good location it's tough having success as the lineup turns over a few times relying solely on their velocity.

Some people believe relievers are failed starters due to a lack of quality stuff. I don't agree with that notion. Good relief pitchers have great stuff, they may not have the stamina or the temperament to be a starter, but nonetheless can be highly effective in shorter stints.

There are a few examples of guys that improved velocity through coaching. Logan Ondrusek comes to mind, but generally you don't see a big jump. But the same can be said for command. Throwing hard doesn't mean you'll ever harness it. The Reds have gambled drafting hard throwing reliever types with the hopes of turning them into SP. It has yielded much success with the guys we're seeing early on.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

That is meant to say...
It hasn't yielded much success...

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Looks like Homer will make his return Sunday. Caleb Cotham to the 60 DL to make room on the 40 man and Kyle Waldrop optioned to AAA to make room on the 25 man. I don't expect him to be very sharp, but it'd be nice to see him make it through the remainder of the season healthy.

I see MLB shuffled the top prospect list around as they always do. Senzel to number 1 with Winker dropping to #5. What's it all mean? Nothing really.
Rankings are about as worthless as an IOU from someone filing bankruptcy.

The Reds have won the first 4 series coming out of the break. A few bad teams and a struggling Giants club, but it's still nice to win. The club's they've beaten were probably expecting to win those series from a bad Reds' team.

 

[JohnU]

I think the upward trend actually started in Chicago the weekend before the ASG. I had the chance to be at the July 6 game that the Reds won and I recall the fans around me (lots of them) just being smugly expecting the Cubs to bash the Reds' brains in. After Cozart hit the leadoff homer, the place got real eerie. AFter Barnie's dinger, I think a lot of people were realizing that they were seeing a little better Reds team. Disco was pitching.

The series in SF was quite refreshing again as the bullpen, except for the mess in Game 2, continued to look pretty sharp.

Cotham on the 60-day is painful for one reason -- he's part of the "haul" that inevitably sent Chapman to ... um ... the Cubs. Obviously Caleb is no Missile but he had promise.

Bailey's rehab shows he's pretty smart, I think. His number were really bad which is nice because he could get better knowing he wasn't trying to make the club or avoid losing his job. That $107 million is a nice carrot.

I never got the rationale the Reds have used for bringing bench bats to the big club, giving them 8 at-bats and then dispatching them back to minor league hell. Waldrop is on a long list there.

I am quite disappointed that the 3 quality lefties we got for Cueto are all bonking their heads against the outfield wall. Of the 3, Finnegan probably needs to be sent down before he is shut down. Cody Reed probably just needs to get his fastball hammered until he learns to pitch. Lamb might invent himself into a lefthanded Bronson Arroyo.

Talk about dealing Cingrani is sort of curious. Seems like dealing him would be an admission that the Reds coaching staff can't teach a guy to pitch.

Curious about the output Bruce had in the Bay considering some of the scribes are saying the Giants are interested in him. What better way to improve his odds than by giving him some ripe taters to hit into the ocean.

Take from that what you want, but if I wanted a guy on my team and knew he needed to impress the people who do the hiring ... just saying.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds did win 2 of 3 in Wrigley, but followed that up by getting swept by Miami. The Cubbies were coming off being swept by the Mets, so they were struggling at the time as well.

The Reds always seem to have trouble with the Padres. The Padres scheduled SP isn't formidable, but the ballpark isn't homer friendly. The Reds have been scoring a lot via the long ball. Let's see if they can put some rallies together versus some 4.0+ ERA types.

Finnegan, Disco, and Homer for the Reds. Should win the middle game. . the other two are most likely bullpen games.

The bullpen has been better, but the talent level has been upgraded over what we were seeing out of ST. We all knew some of the projected SP would end up in that role, but it's starting to look like quite a few of them may end up in that role in Cincy or elsewhere.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

So much for a bullpen game. Finnegan threw 6 scoreless innings and the offense scored 6 runs without homering.

The Padres aren't very good, but it's an improvement to see the Reds beating teams in the bottom third of the league. A few trades could put a dent in the nice run they're on.

 

[JohnU]

Hamilton still seems to fall into those habits where he thinks he can drive balls to the gaps off the fence.
I do think the offense is putting together a nice combination where it's not as likely they will go 12 outs in a row. The 6-8 hitters are vastly improved over a year ago.
Lorenzen and Iglesias seem to be building a nice bullpen resume. Blake Wood is better now. Cingrani is still a puzzle. Straily, Disco and hopefully Homer ... this team could approach .490 for the duration of the year. Stephenson soon? I guess we're stuck with the rest of these guys.

 

[JohnU]

If Jumbo can't lose it, nobody can.

 

[JohnU]

I guess we know what the plan for Jay Bruce was.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Reports make it sound like Bruce to NYM and Cozart to Seattle. They should write that stuff on a quality toilet paper in case they have to wipe their ass with it if the rumor fizzles out.

The story I saw stated the Reds have found Nemo.
Brandon Nimmo that is.... a 23 year old OF and a couple prospects.

Another series win for the boys. Not too much scoring without the long ball as usual. But the pitching was good for the men in Red.

Homer was surprisingly sharp for his first outing post surgery. Giving up the tying run while walkig off the mound wasn't a highlight...... oh wait a second, Yes it was! That's Homer in a nutshell. When the guy is focused he's tough as nails, but when he's not all bets are off.

 

[JohnU]

Homer is probably trying to remember that he needs to throw the ball toward the catcher. I can imagine, though, what he was thinking about. Another elbow blowout and his career is probably over.

People who are rationalizing a Bruce trade are going to bobblehead when somebody says a prospect is that good. For what it's worth, it will take a lot of outfielders to equal one Jay Bruce.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm convinced Reds recent trades have been less about return value, than immediate payroll value.

Cozart makes less than half of the MLB average ($2.9M), but as he was arbitration eligible in his best year, they were scared they might have to pay him the MLB average salary ($7M). Bruce's salary looks like a can of tuna compared to Heyward's, and Bruce has the most HR in the NL over the last half decade. The real irony is, even if they shed both these guys, the Reds still owe about $54M/year to just 3 players- Votto, Bailey and Phillips. That leaves about $48M/23players=....you you guessed it, $2M/ each. It's one of those tricks of math the Reds can't seem to grasp...no matter who they cut other than Votto and Bailey, they just can't pay more than an average salary somewhere south of $3M/yr.

Now, I get that the MLB minimum is less than half a Mil a year...and the "idea" is to fill about 20 roster spots with guys between MLB minimum and an average first or second arbitration salary, but unless they unload those big contracts, the $3M/year line is the "must trade" barrier for all others. When does it stop ? Probably not until attendance does...or they are lucky enough to have a roster full of pre-arbitration youngsters and castoff reclamation projects that ALL have career year breakouts, all in the same year...similar odds to winning Mega Millions, Publisher's Clearing House, and the Preakness, all in the same year.

Even if all those planets align in this lifetime, then you gotta PAY many of them, or start all over. Trading for a farm system is pretty short lived.... So, I'd suggest the Reds start BUILDING a long term producing farm system NOW, because by then, they might not have any Cueto's or Chapmans or Bruces to trade for one.

Although it is theoretically possible to win cheap, you just can't keep winners cheap, for very long.

BTW, it isn't cutting payroll or even filling minor league rosters with other teams prospects that lead to winning- only TALENT can do that.

It's a catch-22 situation that isn't easily solved by teams or swallowed by fans.

 

[eburg5000]

I'm convinced Reds recent trades have been less about return value, than immediate payroll value.

So true