Reds-Flatfish discussion thread

[JohnU]

Me: Evidently Jose Fernandez has some bad-ass stuff but could get a little on the wild side. So I vote we walk on the wild side and light up the smokestacks in center field. Maybe even let somebody win that Tundra for a change.

1507: Cingrani just needs to throw ground balls.I like Cingrani's pre-game attitude. They asked him what his goals were today (dipschidt question, IMO) and he jokingly said "perfect game" ? Then gave the double-A cliché, "Just want to give my team a chance to win". He's got a big-baratone baddazz voice. I'm hoping he has a big day.

 

[redlegs@hokies]

should be an exciting matchup of young, talented pitchers tonight. Reds need to trounce the fish.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Both high expectation pitchers in absolutely opposite situations:

Fernandez is going to be in the rotation on a bad team unless injury or inning limits prevent it...a 5.00 ERA isn't likely to send him down. Cingrani is filling in for the #1 SP on a team with designs on a Championship, and it's going to require someone else to fall down for him to stay up all year, IMO.

I'm convinced the odds are overwhelmingly AGAINST a team winning a World Series, without a lefty starting pitcher...because 90% of the last 50 Series Champs haven't done it. Cingrani is a lefty. They sent Chapman to the bullpen...so I'm hoping come playoff time, Cingrani is someone the Reds can't ignore.

 

[JohnU]

Part of what needs to happen tonight and in upcoming games is Cingrani needs to convince the ump that he has control over his pitches. If he's aiming at the low outside black, and he hits it three times in a row, the ump will give him the low outside black. If not, he will have to earn strikes the hard way. Even against the Flatfish, a 2-seamer at the hips-up isn't going to stay in the GABP.

 

[redsfan03]

I'm really pulling for Cingrani to impress while replacing Cueto. I'm with 1507 in that it's always helpful to have a lefty in the rotation when possible. Leake did have a great start last night against the Phillies, but I'm not sold him even as the fifth starter. Guy has a heck of a bat though. I think Cingrani's got more dynamic stuff than Leake (especially that fastball). Cingrani's issue in spring training seemed to be more command than anything. It helps that Cingrani's first two starts will be against two pseudo-AAA teams.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Cingrani does well and Cueto returns. Does Leake get relegated to long relief duty? Do the Reds demote Cingrani even though he did well? Couple of interesting dilemmas although that's looking way ahead and making some general assumptions.

 

[JohnU]

Well, Cingrani has to do well enough to be better than Leake. If not, he has to be better than the next guy in the bullpen. If he has big-league stuff, he's not going to get better by beating Toledo.

 

[Redsfan1507]

On one hand, it's nice to have pitching "depth"...even though I believe you never have enough pitching. On the other, contracts and minor league options often complicate doing what seems to be the best thing right now. Leake has shown flashes before, and I'm not saying he isn't one of the best 25 on the Reds, I'm just skeptical a guy with his stuff can ever be more than a marginal back of the rotation guy, so he's the one I'm looking to replace in the rotation if there is a higher upside (especially a LEFTY) pitcher available. I think he'd be a good long reliever, to say nothing about how impressive the rotation would be, if he wasn't good enough to be in it.

In the longer term, it is unlikely the Reds will try to extend Bronson Arroyo beyond this year given the cash it would require to keep him. If true, there will be another rotation opportunity for another (lefty please) pitcher, again. I'm impatient about this because every team has a talent life span, and our Reds can't keep postponing opportunities to win something, or they may run out of them.

 

[JohnU]

As usual, we generally warp the topic but I do think the Cingrani issue has a lot of variables.

First, let's assume that nobody on the current roster drives head-first into a hurricane or gets caught with PED's in a shoe box. That would mean that what we have on the field is generally what we can expect for the near future. Unless somebody does a Ludwick and totally wrecks his arm/brain/both.

Arroyo probably won't sign again. He's as much as said that.

Choo is still a guy we can sign. If not:

The upgrades after that depend on whether Hamilton can hit, whether Mesoraco can catch and whether Neffy Soto or Donald Lutz are good enough to play LF or 3B.

Cingrani and Corcino are legit pitching prospects.

The decline in skills for every player begins to show at some point but with half this roster under 26, that's not as likely as it would with somebody like the Phils or the Mets.

What would make me happier is to see Cingrani go after the closer's job and send Chapman back into the rotation mix. The Reds would be in a position to negotiate from strength ... If Chappy doesn't want to start, the Reds simply offer to trade him. What's he worth?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Tonight's game should get an attendance boost from walk-ups to see Cingrani. The real treat might be seeing Jose Fernandez.

Jose Fernandez is a 20 year old Cuban born right-hander that went to High School in the U.S. He was the 14th overall pick in the 2011 June draft. He's a big kid at 6'2 240 and has a fastball that has topped out at 99. He mixes it well with a curveball, change-up, and occasional slider. With the Reds' struggles against right-handed pitching and the Marlins' struggles against everybody, this game will probably be decided by the bull pens.

The Marlins have a bad bull pen, the Reds ??? It's been shaky to start the season. Chapman has been shut-down, but it's hold your breathe beyond that thus far. With or without a left-hander, if the bull pen doesn't return to or close to the 2012 version results, it all going to be moot.

 

[JohnU]

The trick is to get consistent pitching so that the bullpen can be used consistenly, not like it was for a week or so there.
The other trick is to get consistent hitting so that when the pitching isn't consistent, you consistently still have a chance to win the game.
See how easy that is?

 

[JohnU]

Still have 2 or 3 guys over on CBS groaning about the way the team plays.

Meanwhile, Sean Marshall is expected to come off the DL on Tuesday. I'd guess Freeman heads back downstream after that.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Sounds easy in theory, application is a bit more of the problem.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The last few years, it's been a crapshoot for wildcard spots, with division winners given no real tangible advantage in the playoffs. You gotta get there first. The NLC isn't that tough, and hasn't been. If you win 90 games, you're in the hunt.

Until a few more teams win World Series WITHOUT a lefty starter, I think it's a prerequisite, and unless it's Cingrani, Chapman or a yet to be seen trade piece, the Reds DON'T have one.

Relievers (bullpens) are important, but they are paid a fraction of rotation pitchers for a reason. A good starter on a roll doesn't always need the bullpen, but the bullpen almost ALWAYS needs the starter to do well (to win). Besides, I don't think there is much wrong with the Reds bullpen that a little better rotation and offense won't make insignificant.

IMO, one of the keys to making this offense move is going to be the 2 hitter, the guy in front of Votto. last night, Cozart hit well there, and the Reds won big, even without a lot from Votto. I say that because the normal opposition shutdown plan revolves around not letting Votto beat them, and the real idea of winning is to make the other team do things they don't want to do...namely pitch to Votto with runners on, or have runners on (including Votto) in a situation where the 4 or 5 hitter can just lift a flyball and score a run. You don't do that often with 2 outs, and Choo isn't going to hit .400 forever. The Reds need to continue to get something out of the 2 hitter...and I'm hopeful, but definitely not sure Cozart is the guy, yet.

 

[JohnU]

Did anybody notice the last 2 AB's by Votto last night? He seemed hopelessly fooled or indifferent to the outcome. Will be interested to see what he is doing to adjust. I think he's getting to a point where he'd rather not amble to first base three times a night.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think Votto will be fine.

I see no good coming out of him becoming a swingaholic, just because he is tired of walking. No reason to if the Reds offense is getting consistent churn. He's the new Barry Bonds- not the PED's or even the HR's, just the one of the most walkable guys in the NL (IMO, after Buster Posey)- due to his potential damage, and the relative lesser damage by making someone else in his lineup beat them. Lately, Brandon Phillips is at least making them think about it...and if the 1-2 hitters can get on, not likely to walk Votto with no outs...and then you will see Votto be more Votto.

 

[ckhokie]

He seemed hopelessly fooled or indifferent to the outcome.

It's never been his style to show much emotion, good or bad

 

[Hit-n-Run]

He's had some awkward looking swings this year. Hard to get in a groove when you're seeing as many marginal strike/balls as he gets thrown. I'd compare it to facing a pitcher that's wild, it's hard to get comfortable.

Nolan Ryan made a "Hall of Fame" career out of being just wild enough to make hitters uncomfortable while having great stuff. I've always thought the no-hitters were a result of not only his stuff, but his wildness.

 

[redsfan03]

Yeah, Votto's problem is that pitchers are throwing so much junk to him. It's tough to get in a groove. It seems like he's seen so many bad pitches that he's having trouble recognizing juice balls until it's too late. Imo that's why he's been slapping a lot of his hits to left. I think he may start seeing some better pitches if BP continues to hit well in the cleanup spot. Obviously, that's a big "if," but BP has done pretty well thus far.

 

[JohnU]

I think so far the lineup churn has been pretty decent.

 

[Ryanballa]

Good to see you JohnU and all you other guys that I used to post with on CBSSPORTS, Glad that we could find another forum.But for tonights game its gonna be really interesting to see Cingrani pitch, The kid gots quite of bit of hype about him going into tonights start.