Prospects

[Showtime1908cubs]

We have a bunch of prospects that will be brought up this year i am hoping. I understand they still need developed but Baez and Bryant are the two that seem most ready why not bring Bryant up atleast because as well all know 3rd base in a major concern and if not then Baez can play about anywhere on the infield y not bring him up early.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Baez, Alcantara and Kyle Hendricks will all start in AAA and probably be up at some point this year. Bryant and Soler will start in AA and probably be up in 2015. Almora will start in high-A and could be a late 2015 arrival. Neil Ramirez is another that will start in AAA. C.J. Edwards will be in AA. Hopefully, Mike Olt wins the 3B job and shows that he is fully recovered and the player he was expected to. Vizcaino probably starts in middle relief with a chance to become the long-term closer.

It is unlikely Bryant ends up at 3B. He will be a very good defensive LF, but the best he'll be at 3B is average. If Olt doesn't lock up 3B, which he probably won't, then Baez will go to 3B with Alcantara playing 2B. If Olt does lock up 3B then Baez probably goes to 2B with Alcantara probably learning CF. Another, out of the box, option is moving Castro to CF. No matter where they end up the Cubs have a ton of prospects to throw out there over the next three years that will hopefully end up providing a very good line-up.

The Cubs have somewhere around 25 prospects worth getting excited about right now. The only issue is that 20 of them are position players. They will still need to add some rotation help through FA or trades at some point. A rotation of Wood, Samardzija, Hendricks, EJax and Arrieta won't be good enough. However, a rotation of Scherzer, Wood, James Shields, Hendricks, EJax/Arrieta would be a contending rotation next year if some of the bats do as expected.

 

[Showtime1908cubs]

Then trading a guy like soler seems like a smart move to grab a pitcher.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Trading any of them at this point makes no sense. After you have a clearer idea of what you actually have in your prospects then you can move some. Vogelbach is the only one that is a lock to get traded unless the NL adds a DH. Candelario and Amaya probably end up being traded unless Baez, Alcantara and Bryant flame out. There are way too many variables and teams do not trade elite young pitching so you aren't going to find the type of fit they would like on the trade market right now. Prospect for prospect trades are also very rare. Once some of the guys are up and other knocking on the door then they will have maximum value and potentially be used in trade for pitching at that point.

It is still much more likely that they fix the top of the rotation with FA signings, short-term. Giving a guy like Scherzer a 5 year deal and Shields a 2-3 year deal doesn't hurt you when you. Outside of Wood the Cubs do not have anyone in their rotation that is really better then a #4 pitching on a playoff team. Maybe Kyle Hendricks becomes a legitimate #1 starter and they no longer have that need. Maybe Arrieta puts it all together and becomes a legitimate #2. If those two things were to happen, which are unlikely, then suddenly the rotation looks good without having to make major trades until they are ready to push the team over the top in 2016 or 2017.

 

[anotheridiot]

well, I just dont want to hear this we need to wait to call them up to save a year of arbitration. If they are the best we have they should be here. I dont think it will be an issue this year, but next year I want them here from day one. I hope Alcantara has a good first half and the cubs can deal mr gold glove barney to a contender that needs a late inning defensive replacement. I think that Bryant and Baez need to start getting a defined position or can play so well they define their position here. That will either allow the castro move to second or trade castro and barney and finish the year with Baez and Alcantara. I think its bullshit that people are putting Bryant over Soler in right field. You have the best arm in the system and a career outfielder should shove Bryant to left, not right or leave him to battle with Almora for center field.

as far as ex prospects, I wish they would have let Vitters get a shot at third base this year, not just call him an outfielder now, the most crowded area on this club. I would also have liked to see BJax get a last shot to fill in this year in the outfield instead of resigning sweeney and getting the guy from miami. I think there will be more flips with position players this june than pitchers though.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I see Baez playing 2nd before I see him at 3rd.

 

[anotheridiot]

I see Baez playing 2nd before I see him at 3rd.

I think that loses too much value for them to go to second. Alcantara is good enough to keep second, if not then they may choose to ship castro to second if they cant trade him.

I just want him here, he is probably gonna be better than anyone we have at any position on the major league roster right now.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I see Baez playing 2nd before I see him at 3rd.

It largely depends on Olt. If Olt's vision is fixed and he shows he's a long-term starter at 3B then the Cubs ether move Castro to keep Baez at SS or move him to 2B. If Olt doesn't stick at 3B then Baez slides there where he will be much better defensively then Bryant can ever dram of being. Bryant will end up in LF with either Olt or Baez at 3B. The real question is where does Alcantara go if Olt sticks at 3B. I'm going to guess they throw him in CF where he has the tools to play. They could do something really out of the box and throw Castro in CF leaving Baez at SS with Olt at 3B and Alcantara at 2B.

No matter what the Cubs have a ton of talent to throw out there over the next 3 years to see exactly what sticks and how good some of these youngsters can be. If one fails they have another ready to come up and give it a shot. It's just a matter of how fast guys develop and where they ultimately end up on the line-up card.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I don't see Alcantara being a Cub for much longer.

I definitely see us trading for some pitching, and I wouldn't be surprised if Alcantara and Soler are packaged.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

What pitchers do you think are on the market or will be that the Cubs could pursue? If they trade Samardzija they will get pitching prospects in return. They have Wood, EJax and Arrieta for 3+ more years. They have Kyle Hendricks in AAA who pitches a lot like James Shields with better control. C.J. Edwards will probably be up in 2015. You still have Pierce Johnson in AA who made Baseball America's top 100 list. The Cubs don't have the depth in high end pitching prospects that they have in offense, but they have some quality arms.

I don't see them trading prospects until they have their offense/defense set in the majors. Assuming Olt doesn't pan out and Baez goes to 3B then Alcantara at 2B is like having Barney's glove with an average, at worst, bat. I really do not see them moving Soler at this point. His value is a bit down from getting hurt last year and power hitters are becoming more rare. The Cubs have a chance to have plus power all over the field with Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Olt, Alcantara and Soler. All of those guys profile as high OBP and SLG players along with plus defenders, assuming Bryant moves to LF.

This year they have to figure out where Lake, Olt, Baez, and Alcantara fit long-term. The answers could range from not on the team to starter at a specific position to bench player. They also have Logan Watkins who you could argue should get some playing time to see what he has. Then they have another wave of prospects for next year in Bryant, Soler, Almora and maybe Christian Villanueva. Then in 2016 guys like Candelario, Amaya, Vogelbach, etc will be knocking on the door. So the Cubs have enough prospects at every level that they can wait to trade for veterans until they are actually ready for them. They will have plenty of prospects to trade no matter when they decide is the right time.

I'm completely ignoring a lot of intriguing young guys like Vitters, Szczur, Ha, etc. Not because I don't think some of them could be quality big league players, but because the Cubs have legitimate potential impact talent at EVERY position. I really want to see Vitters get playing time and prove that he can play in the majors, but I'm afraid the injuries ended up costing him his window. Vitters initial big league struggles do not concern me as he struggled through his first 150 PAs at every level then he adjusted and crushed the ball. Szczur is someone I've never been high on, but he has some tools like Lake, and I still would like to see him get a couple of hundred PAs this year or next to see what he can do.

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm completely ignoring a lot of intriguing young guys like Vitters, Szczur, Ha, etc. Not because I don't think some of them could be quality big league players, but because the Cubs have legitimate potential impact talent at EVERY position. I really want to see Vitters get playing time and prove that he can play in the majors, but I'm afraid the injuries ended up costing him his window. Vitters initial big league struggles do not concern me as he struggled through his first 150 PAs at every level then he adjusted and crushed the ball. Szczur is someone I've never been high on, but he has some tools like Lake, and I still would like to see him get a couple of hundred PAs this year or next to see what he can do.

That is why there was no reason to sign Sweeney again, not trade Nate when his value was high, this year they bring in that guy from the marlins to play outfield. You have these guys, plus BJax that are gonna be missing their window. Lake led this team in almost all offensive categories second half last season and most fans are not even expecting him to be here much longer. So why sign the miami guy then to replace him. Logan Watkins should have been a platoon guy with barney last year. I think the cubs were too focused on trying to get him back to back gold gloves and cost watkins 60 to 80 games. This is the worst year for Vitters. Most probably his best chance to be the opening day third baseman, but he is told he is now an outfielder. I will take Vitters at third over Valbuena 7 days a week.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Vitters should have been moved off 3B years ago. Scouting reports when he was drafted said he was going to end up in LF. BJax can't put a bat on the ball and while I always thought he'd make an adjustment in the upper minors instead his K rate jumped up in AAA and hasn't gone back down. Lake managed to maintain his poor contact rates without getting worse which is why he has a chance to be a quality starter. Schierholtz will hopefully be moved early in the season. Ruggiano is also a mid-season trade candidate, although he would also make a good 4th OF as he can play all 3 positions and has 20-20 ability. Basically, Ruggiano is what Brett Jackson would be if he cut his K rate in half.

Valbuena offers a lot more value at 3B then Vitters. Even if Vitters were to come up and be solid, i.e. .270/.330/.450 the defensive difference would still have Valbuena more valuable as the SLG difference wouldn't make Vitters more valuable with similar OBP and massive difference on defense. I expect Olt to be the starting 3B and he should have an even bigger gap between him and Vitters then Valbuena would because Olt has more power, better on-base skills and better defense then Vitters. I would really like to see Vitters and Lake force the issue this spring so they end up in CF and LF with Ruggiano and Schierholtz in a RF platoon. Although, I do believe that is a dream and has almost no chance of becoming reality. Someone will probably have to get hurt, either a Cub or someone on a contender who then feels the need to make a move early, for Vitters to get much playing time this year. Even though I don't believe Lake or Vitters offer value as starters, long-term, I still want to see them get a chance to surprise me before they end up as bench players for the next 4-5 years.

 

[anotheridiot]

Soler already penciled in AA, Baez in AAA. They have things to work on.

I say who cares, if they are in the best 15 we have, they should come north.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Soler already penciled in AA, Baez in AAA. They have things to work on.

I say who cares, if they are in the best 15 we have, they should come north.

That sounds like something taken out of the Marlins handbook on how to run the worst organization in baseball. It certainly isn't something the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Cardinals believe. I'd basically prefer to not be like the Marlins who are a huge example of how to minimize your resources by starting player clocks early and having to pay them early and, in their case, trading them sooner. On the bright side, it means the Marlins will probably be trading Jose Fernandez before the 2016 season when they could have waited until some of their other players were ready to come up mid-season and gotten an extra year before arbitration from Fernandez and maybe made some miracle run.

Cano made AA his play toy, like Baez did, after a mid-season promotion and the Yankees sent him back there the next season then half a season at AAA then started the next year at AAA to avoid super 2 status. The Red Sox have a history of a slow approach with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks etc. The Rays limited the service time of Chris Archer and Wil Myers last year. Myers might be the best prospect comparison to Baez as he had 37 HRs between AA/AAA in 2012 and still had to spend a chunk of 2013 in AAA. Then when Myers got called up he did nothing but hit, because he had been forced to refine his approach before getting called up.

The Cardinals almost never start the season with a player on their roster that hasn't played in the majors. Wacha was a mid-season call up. Shelby Miller, Kolten Wang and Matt Adams all got broken in as September call-ups. Rosenthal and Lance Lynn were first called up in the middle of the season. Even the Dodgers held back Puig last year.

 

[Mitziman]

That sounds like something taken out of the Marlins handbook on how to run the worst organization in baseball. It certainly isn't something the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Cardinals believe.


A team that has only been in the league since 1993, and has 2 World Series Championships...is the worst organization in baseball? I'd take that. Marlins have a different philosophy when it comes time to paying its star players, trade em for more prospects....but, know one can argue the success they've had letting their top young players develop at the major league level instead of the minor leagues.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Except the owner of the Marlins, John Henry, when those two World Series teams were built and those front offices were in place now owns the Red Sox. That same owner oversaw the Red Sox winning two Wold Series as well. So I'm going to stand by my statement that, at present, the Marlins are the worst run franchise in baseball. Ownership matters and the runs the Marlins made, over a decade ago, don't have anything to do with the current state of that organization and present ownership.

 

[Mitziman]

Except the owner of the Marlins, John Henry, when those two World Series teams were built and those front offices were in place now owns the Red Sox. That same owner oversaw the Red Sox winning two Wold Series as well. So I'm going to stand by my statement that, at present, the Marlins are the worst run franchise in baseball. Ownership matters and the runs the Marlins made, over a decade ago, don't have anything to do with the current state of that organization and present ownership.

John Henry was owner of the Marlins from 1999-2001. Marlins won world series in 1997 and 2003.

 

[anotheridiot]

That sounds like something taken out of the Marlins handbook on how to run the worst organization in baseball. It certainly isn't something the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Cardinals believe. I'd basically prefer to not be like the Marlins who are a huge example of how to minimize your resources by starting player clocks early and having to pay them early and, in their case, trading them sooner. On the bright side, it means the Marlins will probably be trading Jose Fernandez before the 2016 season when they could have waited until some of their other players were ready to come up mid-season and gotten an extra year before arbitration from Fernandez and maybe made some miracle run.

Cano made AA his play toy, like Baez did, after a mid-season promotion and the Yankees sent him back there the next season then half a season at AAA then started the next year at AAA to avoid super 2 status. The Red Sox have a history of a slow approach with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks etc. The Rays limited the service time of Chris Archer and Wil Myers last year. Myers might be the best prospect comparison to Baez as he had 37 HRs between AA/AAA in 2012 and still had to spend a chunk of 2013 in AAA. Then when Myers got called up he did nothing but hit, because he had been forced to refine his approach before getting called up.

The Cardinals almost never start the season with a player on their roster that hasn't played in the majors. Wacha was a mid-season call up. Shelby Miller, Kolten Wang and Matt Adams all got broken in as September call-ups. Rosenthal and Lance Lynn were first called up in the middle of the season. Even the Dodgers held back Puig last year.

Thats the difference between being in a small market with no fan base and being in a big market with a huge fan base. The cubs would be so lucky to build this team like tampa and miami built theres, but then paying these kids so they dont leave. I dont think Tampa was crying about having to trade or lose carl everett or bj upton to free agency.

People expect the cubs to pay 150 million payroll to have a good team, I say as long as its when you extend baez, soler and bryant among others. Vizcaino, CJ Edwards, Hendrick and if shark performs as the ace this year him too. Thats the big difference, teams that can pay and choose to buy other teams players or teams that can pay and pay their own.

Seattle has gone the route of paying everybody they could and then deal them away. buying free agents are short term fixes for positions you are weak at. when the cubs choose to sign a free agent, like shierholtz, ruggiano, sweeney, you are doing nothing but taking playing time away from Sczcur, Jackson, Lake and Ha who we will never see here, not to mention guys that will be moved to the outfield in Bryant, Vitters and even Alcantara. Can you win 60-70 games with Shierholtz and sweeney, or with Scuzzy, Bjax and lake? The guys that are due to be making this club are blocked by betterans. I just hope the gold glove wears off and barney barney isnt hitting his weight he is platooned this year with a lefty bat, who should have been Watkins last year. Just hope this mentality changes this offseason or when Ruggiano, sweeney and shierholts are traded its to let our kids play, not bringing in more veterans.

 

[NCChiFan]

After what I've seen so far, the farm system can't start producing players soon enough.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Baez struggling early in AAA. Alcantara has been solid. Soler is still hurt. Bryant is smashing in AA, .290/.416/.538, and should be in AAA in mid-June or early July. Almora started off hot, but has cooled and needs to make some adjustments if he's going to move to AA at mid-season. Vogelbach started off cold, but has started hitting and if he can move up to AA and hit there he could be a big trade chip this off-season. Gioskar Amaya hitting over .400 so far in Daytona and could end up as another trade chip for the off-season if he keeps it up. Amaya isn't ever going to be a stud, but he should be a solid everyday player.

Some pitching prospects are starting to emerge, although none of the high-end arms project to be up until at least next year. Jen-Ho Tseng is off to a great start and has ace potential, but is 19 and a few years away. C.J. Edwards has pretty much picked up where he left off last year, 2.61 ERA, in AA and should see AAA this year. Paul Blackburn, Corey Black and Ivan Pineyro are all off to strong starts.