Playoff Push

[Taz_Hokie]

There is still a lot of baseball to be played, but we're in the thick of it at the end of August.

Both Tampa Bay lost and Detroit is losing, so that helps widen the tiny gap in the wild card race. But we have 7 games against the Yankees in the next 10 games, so we can make a legitimate push for the AL East crown. I don't think there is any way we take all 7, but I think we can go 4-3 or even 5-2.

Here's a look of the remaining series for the O's, Yankees, Rays and A's (including them for the wild card race)

Orioles
@NYY(3), @Toronto(3), NYY(4), Rays(3), @A's(3), @Mariners(3), @BoSox(3), Jays(4), BoSox(3), @Rays(3)

Yankees
O's(3), @Rays(3), @O's(4), @BoSox(3), Rays(3), Jays(3), A's(3), @Twins(3), @Jays(4), BoSox(3)

Rays
@Jays(3), NYY(3), Texas(3), @O's(3), @Yankees(3), BoSox(4), Jays(3), @BoSox(2), @White Sox (4), O's(3)

Athletics
BoSox(3), Angels(3), @M's(3), @Angels (4), O's(3), @Detroit(3), @NYY(3), @Texas(4), M's(3), Texas(3)

Just from looking at the remaining schedule, I'd say that the A's have the toughest road followed closely by the Rays. The Yankees slate actually looks pretty easy. We have a rough stretch the next 16 games or so, but I still think it goes A's > Rays > O's > Yanks.

 

[jeffro151]

There is still a lot of baseball to be played, but we're in the thick of it at the end of August.

Both Tampa Bay lost and Detroit is losing, so that helps widen the tiny gap in the wild card race. But we have 7 games against the Yankees in the next 10 games, so we can make a legitimate push for the AL East crown. I don't think there is any way we take all 7, but I think we can go 4-3 or even 5-2.

Here's a look of the remaining series for the O's, Yankees, Rays and A's (including them for the wild card race)

Orioles
@NYY(3), @Toronto(3), NYY(4), Rays(3), @A's(3), @Mariners(3), @BoSox(3), Jays(4), BoSox(3), @Rays(3)

Yankees
O's(3), @Rays(3), @O's(4), @BoSox(3), Rays(3), Jays(3), A's(3), @Twins(3), @Jays(4), BoSox(3)

Rays
@Jays(3), NYY(3), Texas(3), @O's(3), @Yankees(3), BoSox(4), Jays(3), @BoSox(2), @White Sox (4), O's(3)

Athletics
BoSox(3), Angels(3), @M's(3), @Angels (4), O's(3), @Detroit(3), @NYY(3), @Texas(4), M's(3), Texas(3)

Just from looking at the remaining schedule, I'd say that the A's have the toughest road followed closely by the Rays. The Yankees slate actually looks pretty easy. We have a rough stretch the next 16 games or so, but I still think it goes A's > Rays > O's > Yanks.

Here is Detroit's for good measure.
CWS (3), CLE (3), @ LAA (3), @ CWS (4), @ CLE (3), OAK (3), MIN (3), KC (4), @ MIN (3), @ KC (3)

They have a easy road to go, but seem to be struggling as of late.

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Looking at quality opponents (teams that are in the hunt for the playoffs), I'd say:

A's - 23 games
Rays - 19 games
O's - 16 games
Yankees - 16 games
Tigers - 13 games

I'm including the Yankees, White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Orioles, Rays, Tigers and Angels. You could almost even through the Mariners in there as they have been playing some good ball lately even though they are pretty much out of the race.

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Just saw "Hunt for October" on ESPN and we were pretty spot on for the difficulty of the schedules.

Here are the winning % of remaining opponents as of right now:

A's - .534
Angels - .530 (not sure why we didn't list them, but I guess they do have an outside shot)
Rays - .525
O's - .513
Yankees - .500
Tigers - .475

MLB Hunt For October - MLB Playoff Predictions - Major League Baseball - ESPN

It also states home vs away games.

 

[jeffro151]

Just saw "Hunt for October" on ESPN and we were pretty spot on for the difficulty of the schedules.

Here are the winning % of remaining opponents as of right now:

A's - .534
Angels - .530 (not sure why we didn't list them, but I guess they do have an outside shot)
Rays - .525
O's - .513
Yankees - .500
Tigers - .475

MLB Hunt For October - MLB Playoff Predictions - Major League Baseball - ESPN

It also states home vs away games.

ESPN pisses me the fuck off. They still give us the least chance of making the playoffs out of all of the contenders.

TEX-98.5%
NYY -94.1%
CWS-83.9%
OAK-77.0%
TAM-58.4%
DET-40.8%
BAL-31.1%

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Yeah, I ignore that type of shit. I try to only read box scores or factual numbers. The formula they use relies heavily on run differential and ours is pretty abysmal.

ESPN can eat a dick in general though.

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Taking 4 out of 6 on that road trip was about as much as I wished for. It would have been nice to sweep the Jays, but I'll take the series victory. The next 7 is going to decide our season I think. We can either take a commanding lead over the Yanks and Rays, or fall by the wayside. Being the pessimistic O's fan that I am, I'm just waiting for the latter to happen.

 

[ThruTheEyesOfRuby]

Taking 4 out of 6 on that road trip was about as much as I wished for. It would have been nice to sweep the Jays, but I'll take the series victory. The next 7 is going to decide our season I think. We can either take a commanding lead over the Yanks and Rays, or fall by the wayside. Being the pessimistic O's fan that I am, I'm just waiting for the latter to happen.

It's easy to feel that way considering the lack of success we've had the last 15 years. I don't expect NY to roll over, so I kinda feel we'll end this series at about the same place in the standings as we are now.. but I would love 3 out of 4 and a one game lead over NY in the standings at some point in the series, just to see it!

It does hurt that Tampa is playing Texas.. I still think we'll be in pretty good shape by the time the weekend is done.

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Updated for the West coast trip...

Orioles - Opp. win avg - .490
@A's(3), @Mariners(3), @BoSox(3), Jays(4), BoSox(3), @Rays(3)

Yankees - Opp. win avg - .481
Rays(3), Jays(3), A's(3), @Twins(3), @Jays(4), BoSox(3)

Rays - Opp. win avg - .502
@Yankees(3), BoSox(4), Jays(3), @BoSox(2), @White Sox (4), O's(3)

Athletics - Opp win avg - .555
O's(3), @Detroit(3), @NYY(3), @Texas(4), M's(3), Texas(3)

Angels - Opp win avg - .523
@Kansas City(3), Texas(3), White Sox(3), Seattle(3), @Texas(3), @Seattle(3)

Detroit is 5.5 games out of the wild card with Tampa and LA ahead of them, I think their likeliest shot at the Playoffs as this point is winning the central from Chicago (who are 4.5 games out of the last wild card currently).

edit - Holy shit, we're down to the final 6 series?!!?!

 

[jeffro151]

ESPN pisses me the fuck off. They still give us the least chance of making the playoffs out of all of the contenders.

TEX-98.5%
NYY -94.1%
CWS-83.9%
OAK-77.0%
TAM-58.4%
DET-40.8%
BAL-31.1%

Updated

TEX- 98.7%
OAK- 89.7%
NYY- 86.3%
BAL- 72.0%
CWS- 61.3%
DET- 41.3%
TAM- 26.9%

 

[jeffro151]

Tampa up on NYY 5-2 T8

 

[jeffro151]

Shit. Skanks score 2 in B8. 5-4 Tampa in 9th

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Orioles - Opp. win avg - .473
@Mariners(2), @BoSox(3), Jays(4), BoSox(3), @Rays(3)

Yankees - Opp. win avg - .469
Jays(3), A's(3), @Twins(3), @Jays(4), BoSox(3)

Rays - Opp. win avg - .495
BoSox(4), Jays(3), @BoSox(2), @White Sox (4), O's(3)

Athletics - Opp win avg - .552
@Detroit(3), @NYY(3), @Texas(4), M's(3), Texas(3)

Angels - Opp win avg - .537
Texas(3), White Sox(3), Seattle(3), @Texas(3), @Seattle(3)

Texas - Opp win avg - .542
@Angels(3), @Seattle(3), A's(4), Angels(3), @A's(3)


Currently, we're a game and a half back of Oakland and 3 games ahead of the Angels as the second Wild Card. Texas has 2 series against each of those teams so they could help us out if we're unable to catch the Yanks , though we're only .5 games back atm.

I REALLY don't want the second Wild Card (but I'll take it if the other option is being left out) as we would play in Tampa on Oct. 3rd then fly to Oakland for the Wild Card Game on Oct 5th, then back to Baltimore on the 7th against the Rangers, that's if current standings hold.

If we can snag the East, we would travel to Chicago for 2 games then back to B-more (second seed, what?!).

I'm going be very interested to see how these final 5 series play out for the Rangers.

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Oh, and they've now bumped us up to 80% of making the playoffs.

TEX- 99.3%
OAK- 93.9%
NYY- 93.5%
CWS- 85.4%
BAL- 80.1%
LAA - 21.5%
DET- 18.3%
TAM- 8.1%

 

[jeffro151]

Skanks scored 3 in B1, but Toronto has scored 2 in T8 and they are still threatening.

 

[jeffro151]

Toronto has bases loaded w/2 outs

 

[jeffro151]

Damn, Rajai Davis flies out to left.

 

[Taz_Hokie]

Cot Damn, the Blue Jays are terrible.

 

[jeffro151]

Playoff chances:
TEX- 99.5%
NYY- 97.4%
OAK- 91.3%
BAL- 90.0%
CWS- 81.0%
DET- 21.3%
LAA- 15.5%
TAM- 4.0%

 

[Taz_Hokie]

LOL @ the AL Central