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MHSL82
Well-Known Member
Interesting article written last week, not saying I agree:
You have to lose to win in NFL
Through 11 weeks of the season, the Broncos and the Seahawks look like the NFL's two best teams and are prohibitive favorites for the Super Bowl. Near-locks, even. Right?
Ha. No. Not even close. The Broncos and Seahawks have almost zero chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. And you would know that if you knew anything about NFL history.
Each of the past eight Super Bowl champions have been awful for stretches of the second half of the regular season. Each of them have had THEY'RE DONE AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE FIRED columns penned about them.
Last year's Ravens? They lost four of five in December and fired their offensive coordinator. The 2011 New York Giants lost five of six in November and December. The 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers lost three of four in November and December. The 2009 Saints lost their last three games. The 2008 Steelers lost two of three in late October and early November. The 2007 Giants -- the team that created the 18-1 New England Patriots -- finished the regular season 4-4. The 2006 Colts lost four of six in November and December. And the 2005 Steelers lost three in a row from late November into December.
History proves that if you want to be great in January and February, you'd better not be in November and December. The formula is: start well, then stink, then ... profit!
With that in mind -- and with the 9-1 Broncos and 10-1 Seahawks essentially eliminated -- who are the best Super Bowl bets?
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have lost two in a row and, at 6-4, are on the verge of falling out of the final wild-card spot in the NFC. The offense continues to struggle to put up points and Colin Kaepernick doubters are flourishing (giving Kaepernick many tweets to favorite). The 49ers' stock is way down. That's why it could never be higher.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 5-5 after losing three in a row and Aaron Rodgers to injury. It's easy to make the argument that Mike McCarthy has just been riding Rodgers' coattails since arriving in Green Bay. All hope appears to be lost. It might be time to plan the parade route.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs lost their first game of the season and all of their critics are yelling about their easy schedule and how they've been feasting on backup quarterbacks. Plus, what has Andy Reid ever won? Next week the Chiefs face Philip Rivers and the week after that the Broncos and Peyton Manning again. Not exactly Jeff Tuel and Jason Campbell. If Kansas City can lose those two games to make it three in a row, they're as strong a Super Bowl lock as you'll ever see.
That's it. Those are the three and only three Super Bowl favorites. Sure, fans of the Cowboys, Jets and Lions might say: "What about us? We're in playoff contention and people are writing us off! We're losing! Don't we have the Super Bowl formula?" No. You don't. Sorry. If we're using recent history as a guide to pick the Super Bowl favorites, we can't ignore history as a guide to pick the Super Bowl favorites: the Cowboys, Jets and Lions aren't getting anywhere near a Super Bowl.
But nothing is set in stone. Sports are unpredictable. That's part of what makes them so great. Maybe the Broncos and Seahawks still have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. But they need to start losing. And fast.
You have to lose to win in NFL
Through 11 weeks of the season, the Broncos and the Seahawks look like the NFL's two best teams and are prohibitive favorites for the Super Bowl. Near-locks, even. Right?
Ha. No. Not even close. The Broncos and Seahawks have almost zero chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. And you would know that if you knew anything about NFL history.
Each of the past eight Super Bowl champions have been awful for stretches of the second half of the regular season. Each of them have had THEY'RE DONE AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE FIRED columns penned about them.
Last year's Ravens? They lost four of five in December and fired their offensive coordinator. The 2011 New York Giants lost five of six in November and December. The 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers lost three of four in November and December. The 2009 Saints lost their last three games. The 2008 Steelers lost two of three in late October and early November. The 2007 Giants -- the team that created the 18-1 New England Patriots -- finished the regular season 4-4. The 2006 Colts lost four of six in November and December. And the 2005 Steelers lost three in a row from late November into December.
History proves that if you want to be great in January and February, you'd better not be in November and December. The formula is: start well, then stink, then ... profit!
With that in mind -- and with the 9-1 Broncos and 10-1 Seahawks essentially eliminated -- who are the best Super Bowl bets?
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have lost two in a row and, at 6-4, are on the verge of falling out of the final wild-card spot in the NFC. The offense continues to struggle to put up points and Colin Kaepernick doubters are flourishing (giving Kaepernick many tweets to favorite). The 49ers' stock is way down. That's why it could never be higher.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are 5-5 after losing three in a row and Aaron Rodgers to injury. It's easy to make the argument that Mike McCarthy has just been riding Rodgers' coattails since arriving in Green Bay. All hope appears to be lost. It might be time to plan the parade route.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs lost their first game of the season and all of their critics are yelling about their easy schedule and how they've been feasting on backup quarterbacks. Plus, what has Andy Reid ever won? Next week the Chiefs face Philip Rivers and the week after that the Broncos and Peyton Manning again. Not exactly Jeff Tuel and Jason Campbell. If Kansas City can lose those two games to make it three in a row, they're as strong a Super Bowl lock as you'll ever see.
That's it. Those are the three and only three Super Bowl favorites. Sure, fans of the Cowboys, Jets and Lions might say: "What about us? We're in playoff contention and people are writing us off! We're losing! Don't we have the Super Bowl formula?" No. You don't. Sorry. If we're using recent history as a guide to pick the Super Bowl favorites, we can't ignore history as a guide to pick the Super Bowl favorites: the Cowboys, Jets and Lions aren't getting anywhere near a Super Bowl.
But nothing is set in stone. Sports are unpredictable. That's part of what makes them so great. Maybe the Broncos and Seahawks still have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. But they need to start losing. And fast.