Playoff Picture

[MHSL82]

Interesting article written last week, not saying I agree:

You have to lose to win in NFL

Through 11 weeks of the season, the Broncos and the Seahawks look like the NFL's two best teams and are prohibitive favorites for the Super Bowl. Near-locks, even. Right?

Ha. No. Not even close. The Broncos and Seahawks have almost zero chance of winning the Super Bowl this year. And you would know that if you knew anything about NFL history.

Each of the past eight Super Bowl champions have been awful for stretches of the second half of the regular season. Each of them have had THEY'RE DONE AND EVERYONE SHOULD BE FIRED columns penned about them.

Last year's Ravens? They lost four of five in December and fired their offensive coordinator. The 2011 New York Giants lost five of six in November and December. The 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers lost three of four in November and December. The 2009 Saints lost their last three games. The 2008 Steelers lost two of three in late October and early November. The 2007 Giants -- the team that created the 18-1 New England Patriots -- finished the regular season 4-4. The 2006 Colts lost four of six in November and December. And the 2005 Steelers lost three in a row from late November into December.

History proves that if you want to be great in January and February, you'd better not be in November and December. The formula is: start well, then stink, then ... profit!

With that in mind -- and with the 9-1 Broncos and 10-1 Seahawks essentially eliminated -- who are the best Super Bowl bets?

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have lost two in a row and, at 6-4, are on the verge of falling out of the final wild-card spot in the NFC. The offense continues to struggle to put up points and Colin Kaepernick doubters are flourishing (giving Kaepernick many tweets to favorite). The 49ers' stock is way down. That's why it could never be higher.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 5-5 after losing three in a row and Aaron Rodgers to injury. It's easy to make the argument that Mike McCarthy has just been riding Rodgers' coattails since arriving in Green Bay. All hope appears to be lost. It might be time to plan the parade route.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost their first game of the season and all of their critics are yelling about their easy schedule and how they've been feasting on backup quarterbacks. Plus, what has Andy Reid ever won? Next week the Chiefs face Philip Rivers and the week after that the Broncos and Peyton Manning again. Not exactly Jeff Tuel and Jason Campbell. If Kansas City can lose those two games to make it three in a row, they're as strong a Super Bowl lock as you'll ever see.

That's it. Those are the three and only three Super Bowl favorites. Sure, fans of the Cowboys, Jets and Lions might say: "What about us? We're in playoff contention and people are writing us off! We're losing! Don't we have the Super Bowl formula?" No. You don't. Sorry. If we're using recent history as a guide to pick the Super Bowl favorites, we can't ignore history as a guide to pick the Super Bowl favorites: the Cowboys, Jets and Lions aren't getting anywhere near a Super Bowl.

But nothing is set in stone. Sports are unpredictable. That's part of what makes them so great. Maybe the Broncos and Seahawks still have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. But they need to start losing. And fast.

 

[MHSL82]

NFC Playoff Picture

NFC Winning Magic Numbers

NFC Losing Magic Numbers

 

[MHSL82]

Really cool, recommend: 2013 NFL Playoff Machine

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think the Denver defense is really an unknown as they really haven't been healthy/available all season, but I suppose most teams have some significant injury at this point. KC needs to make sure Hali and Houston are healthy for this playoff run, if not, I don't see this squad making it past the 2nd round which says more about how weak I feel the 3-6 seeds look right now. I really do believe that this Chiefs team is a contender if it can be healthy come playoff time.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Really cool, recommend: 2013 NFL Playoff Machine

It is very interesting to use this and project out to the conclusion of the regular season. I had some peculiar playoff picks I honestly would not have done had I not gone through this. For example, I have San Diego as the 6th in the AFC seed despite being 8-8. Dallas wins the division, and oddly enough, San Francisco sneaks in as a 6th seed... at 12-4.

2013 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

 

[Black Adam]

I think the Denver defense is really an unknown as they really haven't been healthy/available all season, but I suppose most teams have some significant injury at this point. KC needs to make sure Hali and Houston are healthy for this playoff run, if not, I don't see this squad making it past the 2nd round which says more about how weak I feel the 3-6 seeds look right now. I really do believe that this Chiefs team is a contender if it can be healthy come playoff time.

To be honest I'd say if anything kills our chances it'll be because of the things that we've all seen as problems for this team more than anything else...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

To be honest I'd say if anything kills our chances it'll be because of the things that we've all seen as problems for this team more than anything else...

After Sunday, it seems to me Schwartz needs more playing time. Perhaps at LG?

 

[MHSL82]

I think the Denver defense is really an unknown as they really haven't been healthy/available all season, but I suppose most teams have some significant injury at this point. KC needs to make sure Hali and Houston are healthy for this playoff run, if not, I don't see this squad making it past the 2nd round which says more about how weak I feel the 3-6 seeds look right now. I really do believe that this Chiefs team is a contender if it can be healthy come playoff time.

If they are borderline (either individually), this would be a damn tough decision for Kansas City. You want to rest them if you were playing Jacksonville (who don't look now but have won 2 of 3, lol). The best chance the Chiefs have is for them to be in, if their injured selves are better than their replacements. But KC has a good chance of losing against Denver even with them, so risking injury when the big picture is playoffs? You need them healthy for the playoffs. You saw how quickly they went from healthy to this, how fast could it turn from this to season ending? (This is true for healthy players, too, of course; pre-injured players might be closer to worse injuries or may compensate for the injury, and thus injuring elsewhere.)

P.S. I love your avatar, but think your signature is outdated, albeit true. For awhile, SF considered changing their "Who's got it better than us?" chant to "Hey, it could always be worse." The Niners played better last night. Washington should be in further disarray when KC plays them, just hope that the cold weather and bad reputation for field conditions are safe for the players.

 

[cdumler7]

Sounds like Houston has already been ruled out for the Broncos game. Hali who knows. Definitely a tough call on whether to play Hali or not even if he is say only 75% for the game. Winner has the clear path to homefield and 1st round bye which can be huge. Loser most likely has to spend the playoffs on the road. Still I think if he isn't say 90% it is worth sitting him. I would rather if I were the Chiefs have him 100% for the playoffs than try to win this one game and maybe see him keep hurting that ankle more. Pass rushers especially on defense require good lower body strength to do what they do and an ankle can be crippling to what Hali likes to do.

 

[Black Adam]

After Sunday, it seems to me Schwartz needs more playing time. Perhaps at LG?

Was thinking the same thing...

We'll see if the coaching staff agrees...

 

[NJBuckO's]

Even if we win on Sunday, if they end up tied in record somehow Denver earns the tiebreaker based on divisional record, assuming they beat SD and KC beats Oakland. According to the ESPN Machine. Stinks.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Even if we win on Sunday, if they end up tied in record somehow Denver earns the tiebreaker based on divisional record, assuming they beat SD and KC beats Oakland. According to the ESPN Machine. Stinks.

Which is why this loss to SD absolutely sucks on every level.

 

[NJBuckO's]

Essentially losing the SD game cost them a chance at basically clinching home field against Denver.

 

[Black Adam]

Essentially losing the SD game cost them a chance at basically clinching home field against Denver.

definitely a game the Chiefs should've won imo but it is what it is. nothing to be done for it now...

still, 5 games left in the season and a lot can still happen...

 

[NJBuckO's]

At least they control their own destiny which is all you can ask.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

At least they control their own destiny which is all you can ask.

Yeah, the strange thing though is we could lose out and the Chiefs probably exceeded most of our preseason expectations.

 

[MHSL82]

Even if we win on Sunday, if they end up tied in record somehow Denver earns the tiebreaker based on divisional record, assuming they beat SD and KC beats Oakland. According to the ESPN Machine. Stinks.

If KC beats Denver, even knowing it was in the comforts of Arrowhead, they should win out, no tie-breaker necessary. Not saying that no one could beat a Denver-beating KC, just that no one else on the schedule should be favorited to win, even at home (Chiefs on the road).

 

[cdumler7]

If KC beats Denver, even knowing it was in the comforts of Arrowhead, they should win out, no tie-breaker necessary. Not saying that no one could beat a Denver-beating KC, just that no one else on the schedule should be favorited to win, even at home (Chiefs on the road).

Don't the Chiefs still have to go to San Diego? Unless some serious injuries happen I would bet the Chiefs will not be favored in that one.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Don't the Chiefs still have to go to San Diego? Unless some serious injuries happen I would bet the Chiefs will not be favored in that one.

That would be true, but I think most of us are pretty confident ( maybe too confident) the Defense can somewhat contain the Chargers if Houston and Hali are healthy to provide a respectable pass rush. I wouldn't be shocked if the Offense racked up 30 on the Chargers again for the simple fact they are ranked Dead Last in DVOA.

 

[cdumler7]

That would be true, but I think most of us are pretty confident ( maybe too confident) the Defense can somewhat contain the Chargers if Houston and Hali are healthy to provide a respectable pass rush. I wouldn't be shocked if the Offense racked up 30 on the Chargers again for the simple fact they are ranked Dead Last in DVOA.

I agree completely. Those two going out completely changed the outcome of that game. Now I will say Rivers is actually having a pretty darn good year so I can see him having success even with those two in but not the tune that they did on Sunday. IF the Chiefs offense plays like it did then yeah the Chiefs should dominate against the Chargers.

This should be a fun race clear to the end!