Paul Goldschmidt: Worth 2nd Pick?

[molsaniceman]

CJ Cron is the only other power guy... And Cole Calhoun is probably the next best hitter...

So yea, the angels team stats(runs and RBIs) should not be too great this season...

Trouts been between calhoun and pujols for the last 2 years hasnt hurt him

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Trouts been between calhoun and pujols for the last 2 years hasnt hurt him

sort of did last year, he had his BEST OPS season, but his WORST runs(hitting middle lineup is big reason) and RBI season...

 

[Omar 382]

A three year track record is much more predictive of future success than a one year span. Think of all the guys who have had one great, monster season in the last 5 years and then didn't produce nearly as high in subsequent years (Jose Abreu, Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Hamilton, etc.) and then compare them to players who have had 3 or more great, monster seasons and see how they did in subsequent years (Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, etc.). For fun, I'll run the numbers. I'll take the WARs of the (arbitrary and random but also a representative sample) players I picked from each group. In the first group, I'll record their WAR's in their great year, and then take the average of the WAR's for (up to) their next three years. Then I'll look at the WAR's of players with THREE great seasons, and then take the average of their WAR's for (up to) their next three years. For purposes of this thread, I will call a breakout season a season in which they had a WAR above 5, and to qualify to be admitted into the breakout group, their WAR had to be at least 2 wins lower than their breakout season.

Group 1
Average best season WAR average: 7.5
Subsequent seasons average WAR (up to three succeeding years): 3.3

Group 2
Average best season WAR average: 8.3
Prior seasons WAR average (up to three preceding years) 5.6
Subsequent seasons average WAR (up to three succeeding years): 5.8

 

[Omar 382]

Trouts been between calhoun and pujols for the last 2 years hasnt hurt him

Yeah, that .307 OBP from Pujols really scared the daylights out of pitchers last year

 

[redseat]

(12 Team H2H - Snake Draft)

C: D'Arnaud
1B: Goldschmidt
2B: Neil Walker
3B: Todd Frazier
SS: E. Andrus
2B/SS: Peralta (Yes I know he is out for a little while, he was my last pick)
1B/3B; Valencia
OF: Springer
OF: Heyward
OF: Dickerson
OF: Pillar
OF: Soler
UTIL: A. Garcia
Bench: Mauer (2nd to last pick)
Bench: M. Semien

P. Bumgarner
P.C Carraco
P. Cueto
P. A.J. Ramos
P. Teheran
P. J. Ordorizzi
P. Leake
P. J Hahn
P. R Osuna
P. R Madison

 

[TKOSpikes]

(12 Team H2H - Snake Draft)

C: D'Arnaud
1B: Goldschmidt
2B: Neil Walker
3B: Todd Frazier
SS: E. Andrus
2B/SS: Peralta (Yes I know he is out for a little while, he was my last pick)
1B/3B; Valencia
OF: Springer
OF: Heyward
OF: Dickerson
OF: Pillar
OF: Soler
UTIL: A. Garcia
Bench: Mauer (2nd to last pick)
Bench: M. Semien

P. Bumgarner
P.C Carraco
P. Cueto
P. A.J. Ramos
P. Teheran
P. J. Ordorizzi
P. Leake
P. J Hahn
P. R Osuna
P. R Madison

I've noticed you have a lot of Teheran and d'Arnaud whenever you post a team, whether some are mocks or not idk, but may I suggest to take a peek at OF and/or 2B around the time you would normally take those two... you might like the outcome.

 

[redseat]

I've noticed you have a lot of Teheran and d'Arnaud whenever you post a team, whether some are mocks or not idk, but may I suggest to take a peek at OF and/or 2B around the time you would normally take those two... you might like the outcome.

Most of the time when I take D'Arnaud he is the "best" catcher available

 

[TKOSpikes]

Most of the time when I take D'Arnaud he is the "best" catcher available

I just think what you lose by waiting on catcher and pitching is not nearly as big to how you can upgrade one (or two) OF spots and/or 2B/mi.

Obviously, if you think d'Arnaud will break out and play a full season, you're not alone. Teheran though, would have to be masterful in order to enjoy a great season. Wins will be hard to come by and he's already been regressing.

...not sure where you drafted them, but I'm sure there are comparable players later... your OF seems to be lacking punch. Then again, I'm way further down on Heyward and Dickerson than most.

 

[redseat]

I just think what you lose by waiting on catcher and pitching is not nearly as big to how you can upgrade one (or two) OF spots and/or 2B/mi.

Obviously, if you think d'Arnaud will break out and play a full season, you're not alone. Teheran though, would have to be masterful in order to enjoy a great season. Wins will be hard to come by and he's already been regressing.

...not sure where you drafted them, but I'm sure there are comparable players later... your OF seems to be lacking punch. Then again, I'm way further down on Heyward and Dickerson than most.

I am certainly counting on him to perform that is (d'Arnaud)... I am thinking with Heyward's move to Chicago his numbers should increase and I like Dickerson, not that highest on him but I think he can produce

 

[tlance]

I disagree. You reach in the first round and grab a guy who doesn't perform, or breaks, and you're more or less fucked.

I get the feeling a lot of people are going to get more or less fucked by taking Stanton early. The guy mashes, but he's also a one-man MASH unit.

Not true.

Last year I finished 2nd in a 15 team expert league with Rendon and Cano as my first 2 picks. I have also won leagues with worse starts than that.

Good management can absolutely make up for multiple early misses. The thing is, if you busy on your first couple picks, you better hit big on multiple sleepers. It is doable though, especially in baseball.

Also, I would take Goldy #1, even in a 5 OF league. Kershaw would be 4th for me in category leagues and first in points.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

My 5 is Stanton. And then I think there is a HUGE drop in value.

I get the feeling a lot of people are going to get more or less fucked by taking Stanton early

As of this morning, Stanton is tied with Joey Rickard and Dae-Ho Lee in my leagues. And just think, he hasn't even broken yet this year!

Glad as fuck that I traded him off when people thought he was a top 10!

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

As of this morning, Stanton is tied with Joey Rickard and Dae-Ho Lee in my leagues. And just think, he hasn't even broken yet this year!

Glad as fuck that I traded him off when people thought he was a top 10!

And.... Now he's broken.