OFFICIAL Post-Draft Analysis

[Paper Tigers]

There may be other pretenders, but there is only one post-draft analysis.

Own Team Analysis:

- Unlike previous drafts, this was a draft where every time I wanted a guy and thought he might get taken (Howard, Carrington, Coley, and a few other spots) they ended up still being available. Started off with two mediocre keepers though. Probably toward the bottom of the keeper pile, but not at the very, very bottom. I feel confident that QB Skyler Howard will be a good QB1. After that, I think Joel Lanning and Trevor Knight will alternate starts depending on schedule. Lanning really runs a lot and should run in some TDs while down 31-14 to the TTEch, Baylor, Oklahoma States of the conference. Knight has some opponents that are tough to play against like Bama, Tenn, Miss, LSU. Also could see Blough getting a couple starts. RB is the weakness here and could make or break season. Nick Wilson, if healthy, will do fine, but that’s if healthy. It seems like LJ Scott will be the guy but MSU offense could go back to being anemic like a few years ago. I drafted Webb to be a 100 yard and hopefully a TD guy when I need a start. The main issue is if one of top two go down, I may need Webb or someone else to break through to be 2nd RB. I designed team to start 4 WRs. I like the top 3 a lot. Pringle was probably earlier than necessary but it just seems like a perfect situation there. My hope is that two of Carrington/Coley/Pringle turn into stars and can ride big WR games when Webb is playing and only gets me 4 points.

Favorite of Own Picks:

- Round 2 – Skyler Howard. I thought he’d be a first rounder. Last year he played mediocre at best and still put up over 20ppg. With a weaker D and Smallwood gone, Howard should be in some shootouts and be a QB a bit below the Falk/Watson/Mahomes level but with the next group.

- Round 18 – David Blough – If you put them together, Purdue’s QBs actually went for about 19 ppg. They have an easy schedule. Games against teams like Indiana, Nebraska, Cincy, EKU are possible spot starters. I think its rather clear he’s the starter.

- Round 23 – Derrick Green – At this point, why not? Guy who was heavily recruited in a new setting. No established RB there. Should get goalline carries if he gets anything. If he becomes the #1 back, albeit unlikely, there would be great value.

Least Favorite of Own Picks

- Keeper Decisions? I still think my decisions were OK but it was really surprising to see James Conner go first round and then Davis Webb go 2nd. I don’t think that Nick Wilson or Trevor Knight would have gone as early as those guys which means my decisions obviously don’t jive with some of the other league member views. It will be very interesting for me to see if Conner outperforms Wilson and whether Webb outperforms Knight. I felt like Conner carried so much risk with Ollison there, no receiving threats, a tougher schedule, and coming over bad injury/cancer and then Webb has the tough schedule and unknown weapons.

- LJ Scott – 3rd Round – I was deciding between River Cracraft and Dede Westbrook. Was leaning toward Dede Westbrook after analyzing Wazzou #s, then decided on LJ Scott because the RBs seemed to drop off after him. Quotes seem to indicate MSU wants a single RB to rely on and most everyone sees that as Scott but it is still quite risky in the 3rd round. If I went Westbrook it would have been a long time until my next pick in late Round 4 for my RB2 and I’d have to rely on the unreliable Wilson too much.

Favorite of Other Team Picks: (FOR THE RECORD, MY 5 PICKS LAST YEAR IN THIS CATEGORY WERE RIVER CRACRAFT, STORM WOODS, GERONIMO ALLISON, CHARLES JONES, AND LESHUN DANIELS. DO NOT GET DEPRESSED IF YOUR SLEEPER IS NOT ON THIS LIST)

- Round 3 – California Raisins – Dede Westbrook – As noted above, I liked him a lot. Only really proven guy at WR. There should be plenty of scores to go around. I could see something like 70-1000-9 or so.

- Round 4 – End Zone Divas – Tommy Armstrong – For all the criticism, the other QBs haven’t shown much and he’s probably still the guy. Puts up good fantasy numbers when he’s in there.

- Round 5 – Smurf Turfers – Justin Stockton – So much potential here between rushing/passing. Seems to be a division in Red Raider fanbase as to whether they will split carries or if Stockton will be the clear #1.

- Round 9 – Drunk Jocks – Reginald Davis – Seems like he is a dog-house resident but hard to argue with a TTech WR who had 8 TDs in Round 9.

- Round 12 – Winsley Warriors – Mitch Leidner –Easy schedule, good arm, more open offense, healthy to run like 2014. Won’t be a star but I’m very confident he’ll be useful.

- Round 15/16 – Drunk Jocks – Manny Wilkins/Brady White – This will work out as long as they don’t platoon and ASU normally hasn’t done that too much.

Other Team Picks I don’t like so much

- Round 2 – Winsley Warriors – Justin Jackson – This pick was so bad I should have it in its own category. Northwestern offense has been anemic. They can’t get in the endzone. They ran him through a wall last year. At his size, I can’t believe he’ll get 300+ carries again. He is basically similar to Mike Warren drafted in 3rd round and hasn’t really done much of anything Ralph Webb hasn’t done.

- Round 4 – Smurf Turfers – Brad Kaaya – I just think the upside is limited here. I picked his top WR so I don’t think he’ll be bad but without running as a QB, to be worth a 4th round pick you have to launch it a lot and Richt has too many RBs to play with to get Kaaya past the 20ppg mark.

- Round 6 – Vampire Ducks – Austin Allen – I think Arkansas will run the ball and that last year was an enigma. You Austin are no Brandon.

- Round 6 – Orgy of Evil – Mack Hollins – Just too many weapons on UNC with a tougher schedule this year.

- Round 13 – Skeet Shooters – Gerald Wicks – Feels like a wasted pick to select a Wazzou RB. I can’t imagine them using him enough to start him.

 

[Paper Tigers]

Team by Team Rundown:

Asian Alley Cats: 1-2 punch is very strong at QB. Would be interesting if Kelly went down considering no other QB on the roster is guaranteed a job. Probably will have a lot of interesting lineup decisions at RB as I wouldn’t be surprised if #4 Ford has as many points as the first two drafted RBs on the team. Very interesting depth at WR with Noah Brown and Amara Darboh. With Ateman out for awhile, that should only help Washington. The biggest strength here is the 1-2 at QB. That’s why this team had by far the most points last year.

Vampire Ducks: I don’t think there are many sure things on this team outside of Elijah Hood who should put up huge numbers. Considering FSU’s running attack, I’m not so high on the WRs. I think Prukop was a great pick in Round 3 but he better be because Allen and Garretson are questionable behind him. Some big upside guys in Weber and Williams. Godwin was good value in the 5th. Who knows what to expect of Hilliman coming back from injury. Did not like the Austin Allen selection as I think Arkansas will go back to running more with good depth at RB.

Orgy of Evil: Russell will be QB1 and then good idea in locking down USC’s QBs. Probably they will settle on one. Only concern there is the brutal schedule facing some very good defenses. I like the top 3 RBs a lot although there is a huge dropoff after that. Barkley/Gaskin/Stockton is terrific. Might not need anyone else. Tavares Martin and Derek Willies are big upside picks at WR and Scott was sensible value in 4th round. Ford may see numbers drop if VTech selects one of the more run-happy QBs.

Heisman Hopefuls: Probably the strongest team in the league if just considering QB/RB. Falk and Trubisky are wonderful 1-2 combination and Ertz should be a fine spot start against the right matchups. Who knows on Conner. I did not see him going that early but if he returns to form, he is a top fantasy RB. Very solid quality depth at RB as well. WR will be the question. If Geno Smith got pinched out of Penn State rotation, I’m not convinced he’s putting up big numbers with Oklahoma. I think Hunter is very good starter on one side but who the other two starters are I am not sure. They may emerge with 4 Big 12 guys drafted in Zamora, Gray, Cantrell, Gonzalez.

Drunk Jocks: DeShaun Watson is an awfully nice place to start. Nifty pickups with the Arizona State QBs. I was trying to do the same thing but waited too long. AZState always produces points at QB. Some guys with a lot of downside at top of RB position in Clement and Jovon Robinson. KD Cannon will have a huge year. Cracraft is guy I thought about both of last two years but looking at Leach’s time at Wazzou the big numbers have come from the outside, not the inside. I liked the value on both Westerkamp and Davis when they were picked.

Crime Dogs: Interesting QB situation after Mayfield. Brian Kelly scares me with capable backups. Can picture him pulling Kizer out of games out of nowhere. We will see if Sirk is healthy. I saw the quotes but 7 months is very quick from Achilles tear. At RB, Dayes was very good per game although he could lose some carries to the freshman. Maybe Robert Martin ends up being a guy that can get starts against the better matchups. It’s time for Shell to shine or be replaced by a younger RB. WR is OK but not special after Schuster-Smith.

End Zone Divas – Couple picks I liked here, a couple picks I did not. Tommy Armstrong and Travis Jonsen both very good value to me. Armstrong could lose his job at some point but with Huskers running him a bit more, he could put up nice numbers. I do not see a great WR on the roster here unless Lauderdale steps up but who knows if he will be the guy for TTech. Reynolds is a tough keeper to have. Potential for big 1-2 punch at RB. I thought that was early for Davis Webb (which is why I didn’t keep him). Brutal, brutal schedule, no proven targets at WR and he doesn’t run a lick. Could be a good number of 300 yard games but I’d be concerned about them throwing in one of the younger guys if they are like 2-6.

Winsley Warriors – Very structured QB position. A clear #1 and a clear #2. I love Leidner pick. He was banged up last year, they face an easy schedule and Minny opened up the offense a bit. He may push Dobbs to start at times here. Freeman and Hurd are a good top 2 at RB. Justin Jackson is a fine 3rd RB but had no business going as the 13th overall pick. Horrendous selection. WR is weak. No way around that. Strength of team is at RB. I actually do like Lazard but would prefer as a WR2. Those 3 Indy WRs may cancel each other out and I’ll believe it when I see it with Oregon State. I could see one of the later picks like Massington end up as a consistent starter though.

Skeet Shooters – Before writing this paragraph, I sat and waited for 10 minutes in honor of JonBlaze’s drafting pace. Waited a bit on QB 2 after keeper Barrett. I’m scared that Dak was so good and replacing him will be tough especially against SEC West defenses. John Franklin is definitely a Skeet Shooter type. QB2 worries me. RB1-2 punch is quite strong. We will see what happens when Camion Patrick returns to Redding. Mizzell was great value at that point. He had a very high PPG last year its just a matter of how he is used. I’m not really a big fan of this wide receiver core. Ishmael should be OK but I’m not buying the hype. If I’m playing this team, I’ll take my chances agains the Fitzgerald-Ross combo beating me. Stovall good upside pick.

Smurf Turfers – Better you than me with Lamar. Enormous upside but will probably have his off days. Two reliable QBs behind him in Kaaya and Browning with minimal upside. I don’t think this draft is bad but its hard with the two weak keepers. Really needs some of the upside guys like Kyle Hicks and Cameron Batson to break through. I hope my QB Lanning steals Warren’s TDs but nice pick in the third round there.

California Raisins – A classic Navin squad filled with very talented players who are not always in the easiest positions like Ridley and Dupre. Not a great team at QB but makes up for that at RB and WR. Best 1-2 combo in league at RB probably with Leo and Gallman. Dede was nice pick. I considered him strongly. Should burst into a WR1. I also liked Ke”shawn Vaughn with Illinois going to the run more. I had Clayton Thorson in Round 24 or so. Best hope that Solomon keeps his job to start next to Rosen.

NEW THIS YEAR

Bovada Soul-12 Championship Betting Odds

Asian Alley Cats: 7-2
Heisman Hopefuls: 13-2
California Raisins: 8-1
Drunk Jocks: 10-1
Skeet Shooters: 12-1
Paper Tigers: 12-1
Orgy of Evil: 12-1
Crime Dogs: 12-1
Winsley’s Warriors: 15-1
Vampire Ducks: 20-1
End Zone Divas: 22-1
Smurf Turfers: 22-1

 

[Draft Crazy]

Very good run down Steve. Agree with a lot of this.

Few points just sorta random I will add to this.

Austin Allen- I do agree with Steve it was a bit too early for Allen who plays QB for a system that loves to run the ball. In defense of the pick for Skins. Arkansas has 4 pretty nifty WR's (3 drafted, 1 not drafted) so he does have nice weapons. However, he loses his top weapon in TE Hunter Henry. My other thought for Skins is that the Arkansas has a very bad defense and gave up a ton of points last year and I don't see it improving much so they may be forced to pass. At the same time they may try to control the clock a bit more then they did last year.

James Washington/Ateman. I am not sure if the Ateman injury is good or bad for Washington fantasy wise. Last year Washington did really well with Ateman in the lineup. Seemed like the combo really started to get going last year when the team relied moreso on them then the other two WR's they had there. Having Ateman could take more attention away from Washington. Washington really put up his best numbers with Ateman in the lineup. As with Washington relying on the deep ball it appeared as if the threat of Ateman underneath allowed Washington a lot of man to man coverages and that is a nightmare for any college DB.

When I took Keith Ford I felt the same way. I felt it might turn out the best of the RB picks between he , Linwood and Richard. but I was also to scope about where their draft projection was to know the order in which to take them. I was debating the 3 and knew I was taking 2.. I felt Ford had the best chance of making it back to me knowing draft trends.

I thought Torii Hunter was the biggest reach early on in the draft but it could also pay off big for Q.

I also was a bit surprised at Devine Redding that early, but Indiana likes a bell cow and they will run a ton and Redding is built to carry the ball a lot, so it could be a nice pick. I see what JB was thinking when he went there.

I obviously loved the Derrick Willies picks, but I am with you on the ASU QB's. To get both that late was pretty good because ASU has an easy schedule and both of those QB's are talented, so whatever one wins the starting job could be a consistent fantasy player for a team that already has two good QB's assuming Kenny Hill goes back to his old form of his early Texas A&M days. Not the Kenny Hill of the 2nd month of the season.

Guru has some really nice RB's especially if Whaley is the real deal from the start, but those WR's would really concern me. I don't like Lazard fantasy wise as much as others and I really don't like him as a #1 WR on a fantasy squad. But this is also coming from a guy who has never drafted an Iowa State player.


I really liked the Demore'ea Stringfellow pick, Willies, ASU QB's, Shannon Brooks, Melquise Stovall, Brandon Holloway (that late in the draft), Reginald Davis (a guy I had last year but used very little because of my WR situation, but he was also very inconsistent, came on late in year. Texas Tech has been playing musical WR's, but he is the SR of the squad and while Jakeem Grant had been good in previous years he really took off last year)...

I also like the Ahmad Callaway pick late. Callaway will not be a fantasy STAR by any means, but for getting him where he was selected is great value. A great filler if needed at WR. Michael Rector still available in round 24 also surprised me. A guy who caught 7 td passes last year as a #3 WR. He’s got a younger QB and on a team centered around McCaffrey but he should post decent WR numbers, a guy you can start here and there. Quincy Aybedejeo was a nice pick. 7 touchdowns last year with Treadwell and Cody Core ahead of him.

I am a big fan of NDame RB Josh Adams this year. I had a hard time passing him up but I had to narrow down my RB’s. Travon McMillian was a nice pick too. I may feel a bit partial to him because he arrived to the AAC last year and filled my only real hole which was a consistent 3rd RB. I really like Snow’s squad if River Cracraft can score. Also like Steve I will throw some love out there for the Justin Stockton pick. Guy who fits that offense great, with big play ability and good receiving skills out of the RB position. I think Mitch Trubusky is in for a great year fantasy wise too even with a tougher schedule. His ability to pass and run (Williams couldn't pass) and he should be in a lot of high scoring affairs.

I don't know what to make of Davis Webb. Tony was smart in drafting his backup. He will be good fantasy wise but he will also turn the ball over beings possible he could be replaced.

 

[The Q]

Fair comments on my team, Stevie. Although I'm disapointied the were no barb about how it will eventually fall apart for me.

K-State plays Missouri St and Iowa St during Falk and Trub's bye weeks. So I'm feeling pretty good about my QB production (as opposed to Wes Lunt sucking HUGE donkey balls and costing me games against the worst S12 team ever last year).

I'm really happy with my depth at RB. I was taking Conner or Clement at RB in round 1 so it seems you'd hate either. But Connor was such an absurd stud when he was healthy (and he didn't have a major knee injury like an ACL so I suspect he'll be fine...he's a full go for camp already).

i do regret taking Thompson for Willies becuase of my WR situation.

But man the WR spot did not fall in any kind of value to me. The middle of the draft all the value was at RB. I took a lot of big swings. The Baylor WR2 is usually a very startable player and Gray was the #2 before getting hurt in 2014. He's also playing Doctson's old X WR position. I took my shot at the TTech situation with

DC getting Linwood that late is flat out the SOD. It will probably win him the division. it seems many got scared off by that flukey wildcat QB game by Jefferson in the bowl. And with Chafin gone he'll get 15-20 TDs.

As for others:

- I've said what a great pick LInwood was

- Skyler Howard was so wildly inconsistent that i'm not sure he's worth where you took him. He also is living off an insane bowl performance to blow up his numbers. And with the sick RB depth WV has now, they should run it more in the RZ.

- I'm curious what Syracuse looks like this year. Do they have the talent to make that system work when basically everyone besides BC is more talented than they are in that conference?

- JB's team is so boom or bust. He could be unstoppable or it could be a repeat of last year.

- I took liked RS snagging the ASU QB spot.

- Drew morgan falling so far was interesting considering his production last year. Clearly the league doesn't believe that Ark is gonna throw it nearly as much. Their RB situation is murky as well.

 

[Red Snow]

Overall I like my draft. I felt like I did a good job taking players about the time they should have gone or grabbed some that fell through the cracks a bit.

Other picks I liked based on value:


Shock Linwood
Justin Stockton
Chris Godwin
Keith Ford
DeShone Kizer
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tim White
Janarion Grant
Ralph Webb
Mark Thompson
Noah Brown
Steven Mitchell
David Blough


Reaches

Eric Dungey
Torii Hunter
Brad Kaaya
Stacy Coley
Nick Fitzgerald (will he even start?)
Byron Pringle
Joel Lanning
Thomas Sirk
Stanley Williams
Keon Hatcher
DeAngelo Yancey
Clayton Thorson

 

[Paper Tigers]

Howard was inconsistent last year, but many players have 1 or 2 games pump up their numbers. "Sick RB Depth"? They have Rushel Shell, who averaged 4.4 yards per carry in the Big 12 last year (which is hard to do) and a bunch of guys who have never played in college before (none of which are super high recruits). I don't see how you can look at that team and think RB is the stronger than receivers returning

 

[Paper Tigers]

Overall I like my draft. I felt like I did a good job taking players about the time they should have gone or grabbed some that fell through the cracks a bit.

Other picks I liked based on value:


Shock Linwood
Justin Stockton
Chris Godwin
Keith Ford
DeShone Kizer
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tim White
Janarion Grant
Ralph Webb
Mark Thompson
Noah Brown
Steven Mitchell
David Blough


Reaches

Eric Dungey
Torii Hunter
Brad Kaaya
Stacy Coley
Nick Fitzgerald (will he even start?)
Byron Pringle
Joel Lanning
Thomas Sirk
Stanley Williams
Keon Hatcher
DeAngelo Yancey
Clayton Thorson

If Torii Hunter is a reach and DeShone Kizer is a good pick, who is going to catch the ball for Notre Dame?

 

[The Q]

I think Hunter vs. Ishmael will be an interesting one to watch this season.

I think Hunter will out produce him, but maybe neither was an idea pick.

I admit it was kind of a oh crap I need a WR pick, when Linwood was clearly the highest ranked player left on my board.

 

[The Q]

If Torii Hunter is a reach and DeShone Kizer is a good pick, who is going to catch the ball for Notre Dame?

Holmes.

He just forgot to list him as a sleeper.

 

[Paper Tigers]

All you both need to know about my sixth round pick is this.

Phil Steele mentioned two player names in his 10-team Big 12 Forecast.

Patrick Mahomes
Byron Pringle

 

[The Q]

All you both need to know about my sixth round pick is this.

Phil Steele mentioned two player names in his 10-team Big 12 Forecast.

Patrick Mahomes
Byron Pringle

I like the thought process, I don't love the value.

you probably could've waited.

plus all of K-State's QBs are more run oriented. Ertz should score about 30 TDs on the ground this year, including 14 the 2 weeks I need him to start.

 

[Red Snow]

If Torii Hunter is a reach and DeShone Kizer is a good pick, who is going to catch the ball for Notre Dame?

About 8 different players. That's right Kizer will be a good fantasy player and Notre Dame will have 2 decent WR's, none of which were worth a 4th round pick because will spread it out. I don't see Will Fuller there. Just my take. Could be wrong. Look at my QB DeShaun Watson. He was a fantasy star last year. Not one Clemson WR was good fantasy wise on a consistent bases last year.

 

[Red Snow]

I like the thought process, I don't love the value.

you probably could've waited.

plus all of K-State's QBs are more run oriented. Ertz should score about 30 TDs on the ground this year, including 14 the 2 weeks I need him to start.

Agree. Had it been 5 rounds later he wouldn't have been on my "reach" list. Pringle could turn out to be a great draft selection. If he is, then who cares if you could have waited 5 rounds or not. I just felt for pre-season wise, I need to include him beings I really didn't expect him to go that early. I can't see Ertz running for 30 touchdowns though.

 

[Draft Crazy]

While I agree the Pringle pick was a bit earlier then I expected, I also think as a true player it was a pretty good pick. Ertz is coming off a knee injury and won the High School Golden Arm of the year in the state of Iowa (throwing corn on the cob into the wagon basically). So I expect him to sling it pretty well. He is sort of like Jake Waters at KS.

He won't be Collin Klein running the ball, but I think more of a combo of Jake Waters who threw over 20 TD passes and ran for 10 or so more, and if Pringle doesn't pan out Deante Burton probably will which will cancel out the picks and reverse them so the pick is fine to me. If you really like a guy take him where you know you can get him. You don't want to regret it by waiting too long.

 

[The Q]

While I agree the Pringle pick was a bit earlier then I expected, I also think as a true player it was a pretty good pick. Ertz is coming off a knee injury and won the High School Golden Arm of the year in the state of Iowa (throwing corn on the cob into the wagon basically). So I expect him to sling it pretty well. He is sort of like Jake Waters at KS.

He won't be Collin Klein running the ball, but I think more of a combo of Jake Waters who threw over 20 TD passes and ran for 10 or so more, and if Pringle doesn't pan out Deante Burton probably will which will cancel out the picks and reverse them so the pick is fine to me. If you really like a guy take him where you know you can get him. You don't want to regret it by waiting too long.

This is seriously a thing?

 

[The Q]

Agree. Had it been 5 rounds later he wouldn't have been on my list. Pringle could turn out to be a great draft selection. If he is, then who cares if you could have waited 5 rounds or not. I just felt for PS wise I need to include him beings I really didn't expect him to go that early. I can't see Ertz running for 30 touchdowns though.

That last part was sarcasm.

 

[Draft Crazy]

This is seriously a thing?

No, but the hay bale toss contest is.

Iowa LB James Morris now with the Cowboys won it this year.

 

[JonBlaze]

Personally I really disliked my draft. Wasn't very prepared and able to put in the time like I usually do. I think it showed, especially when guys I were targeting were getting sniped right ahead of me. Frantically trying to search for picks half awake because DC texts me or during a meeting hoping no one catches me sucks.

Stevie hated my Wicks pick and I totally agree! LOL, after I posted that I was like WTF did I just do... I wasn't thrilled about picking Fitzgerald either. Replacing a legend and not even a guaranteed starter. I felt a bit of pressure since my plan was to take the ND QBs and then SS sniped him right in front of me. But we'll see. A few times I took some fliers on some unproven SEC QBs it panned out ok.

 

[The Q]

Personally I really disliked my draft. Wasn't very prepared and able to put in the time like I usually do. I think it showed, especially when guys I were targeting were getting sniped right ahead of me. Frantically trying to search for picks half awake because DC texts me or during a meeting hoping no one catches me sucks.

Stevie hated my Wicks pick and I totally agree! LOL, after I posted that I was like WTF did I just do... I wasn't thrilled about picking Fitzgerald either. Replacing a legend and not even a guaranteed starter. I felt a bit of pressure since my plan was to take the ND QBs and then SS sniped him right in front of me. But we'll see. A few times I took some fliers on some unproven SEC QBs it panned out ok.

I was ONE FUCKING PICK from Cam Newton.....

 

[JonBlaze]

I was ONE FUCKING PICK from Cam Newton.....

haha...yeah buddy. Cam was one of my favorite picks ever. Right next to Dexter "WR" McCluster