Next Year Will Be Exciting

[Omar 382]

Jvett's logic: [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO5sxLapAts]South Park Underpants Gnomes Profit Plan - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Omar 382]

You make absolutely no sense, number1. The blind can't see.

How do I make no sense? Can you please explain why Revere is in the negatives for every offensive stat I've seen?

 

[jvett77]

jvett, following your logic (not easy), the braves would've won 115-120 games...remember they had their share of injuries as well.Washington would've won 105-110 games.

Your numbers are all wrong and appear to be guesses. It takes a little time to look at the rosters and tabulate the months of downtime for the frontline players. Neither ATL nor WSH were devastated by injuries like the Phillies with 9 player position months lost. Understand that I'm just using general subjective logic that's an interesting curiosity not suggesting it's a mathematical theory.

WSH 86-76 3 position player months lost. Could have had 3 to 6 more wins 89-73 or up to 92-70
__________(Werth, Zimmmerman, Harper)........All starting pitchers healthy.

ATL 96-66 4 position player months lost. Could have had 4 to 8 more wins or 100-62 or up to 104-58
__________(Freeman, McCann, J. Heyward, Uggla).......All starting pitchers healthy.

 

[jvett77]

How do I make no sense? Can you please explain why Revere is in the negatives for every offensive stat I've seen?

I've cited many stats for Revere that obviously show how excellent a hitter he is, especially vs DY, the comparison of which serves no practical purpose. You're pulling out obscure stats no one readily has a feel for to argue with the positive stats of Revere that I cited. Let's just agree to disagree. Watch Revere next year.

 

[jvett77]

Jvett's logic: South Park Underpants Gnomes Profit Plan - YouTube

Ha, ha. I'm sure you're not a pervert. But yeah, you're a teenager.

 

[Omar 382]

Ha, ha. I'm sure you're not a pervert. But yeah, you're a teenager.

I have absolutely no clue what you are talking about.

 

[Omar 382]

I've cited many stats for Revere that obviously show how excellent a hitter he is, especially vs DY, the comparison of which serves no practical purpose. You're pulling out obscure stats no one readily has a feel for to argue with the positive stats of Revere that I cited. Let's just agree to disagree. Watch Revere next year.

No, let's not agree to disagree. Let's agree that a pure singles hitter who doesn't walk and plays less than average defense is a less than average player. You do realize that hitting .300 doesn't mean you are a good offensive player, per se? When 95% of the hits are singles, only so much production can be provided. In Revere's case, it is less than average.

 

[jvett77]

No, let's not agree to disagree. Let's agree that a pure singles hitter who doesn't walk and plays less than average defense is a less than average player. You do realize that hitting .300 doesn't mean you are a good offensive player, per se? When 95% of the hits are singles, only so much production can be provided. In Revere's case, it is less than average.

You said you didn't have time for this. Anyway, Revere's a leadoff hitter. Getting on base is everything for this type of hitter. Shouldn't you expect the rest of the lineup to make a contribution to produce some runs? You're expecting him to be a slugger also. Rather have JRol or Mayberry leading off, or ah, Delmon? 200 hits next year is a certainty for this guy. You can't beat that for your leadoff hitter or any spot in the lineup..

 

[Omar 382]

You said you didn't have time for this. Anyway, Revere's a leadoff hitter. Getting on base is everything for this type of hitter. Shouldn't you expect the rest of the lineup to make a contribution to produce some runs? You're expecting him to be a slugger also. Rather have JRol or Mayberry leading off, or ah, Delmon? 200 hits next year is a certainty for this guy. You can't beat that for your leadoff hitter or any spot in the lineup..

1. I don't expect him to be a "slugger" lol

2. No, J-Roll nor Mayberry nor Delmon Young should not leadoff

3. Revere isn't a top 15 leadoff hitter in baseball

 

[jvett77]

Number1:

1. "I don't expect him to be a "slugger" lol" - Then why compare him with DY? (Earlier, it seemed like you felt Amaro should have dumped singles wimp Revere instead of slugger Delmon)

2. "No, J-Roll nor Mayberry nor Delmon Young should not leadoff." - Great. Then you're happy with Revere in the top position..

3. "Revere isn't a top 15 leadoff hitter in baseball" - Who cares? 96 hits in 88 games does it for me. 200 in 2014, really.

 

[jvett77]

It's like you aren't even watching the same sport as the rest of us.

You should be looking at the all important production decline in hits (70) and runs (80) that I listed. Did this cost the Phillies any games in your opinion? The Phils lost 27 one run games. Here's an even clearer picture of what happened. As I said, five key position players missed a total of 9 man-months of baseball. Look at the stats for their partial seasons. (I didn't include this in the original thread so it wouldn't be too long)
__________Out_____Games Played_____stats
howard__3 months______80________76 hits, 11 hr, 33 xbh its, 43 rbi, .266
revere___2 1/2 mos_____88________96 hits, 22 sb, .305
ruiz_____2 months _____91________83 hits, 5 hr, 21 xb hits, .269
utley____1 mo total___130________131 hits, 18 hr, 68 rbi, .282
brown___3 weeks_____135________146 hits, 27 HR, 82 rbi, .274

In general, those 9 lost man-months were responsible for the steep loss in production and therefore, wins. Throw in Halladay's loss for 3 months and include the 1 month loss of Delmon for April. A steady diet of Mayberry at .227 subbing for DY and Revere was a disaster. It really is safe to say that this likely caused a loss in 9 wins or more, at the minimum. How could it not?

 

[Retroram52]

jvett, I think they have a similar category in labor analyses at the department of Labor in D.C. I know I have read similar findings. The question then becomes, how do you change the trend you have concluded? What would you do to fix this and get the Phils back to better labor production?

 

[jvett77]

jvett, I think they have a similar category in labor analyses at the department of Labor in D.C. I know I have read similar findings. The question then becomes, how do you change the trend you have concluded? What would you do to fix this and get the Phils back to better labor production?

As stated on CSN awhile back, there are a lot of "ifs" and I'm not saying anything new here. They have to come back healthy. That alone takes care of much of the decline in production. Revere should be OK since he's young. Go with Ruiz (sign him up) and Rupp at catcher. Much in 2014 depends on Asche and Ruf improving. Brown must recover his hitting form. Hope that Rollins, Utley, and Howard do the job and be ready to replace them with guys like Hernandez, Franco (pending his efforts in ST), and possibly another hitter from a winter move. Hope that the OF can improve their play. If Howard cannot hit, Sandberg should bench/platoon him.

They need to somehow dump the dead weight on the bench and get someone who can hit LHP. I think pitching is the scariest. Halladay is the big unknown and it doesn't look good so I guess they'll try to pickup some help there over the winter. With Wade advising Amaro anything can happen. Any other suggestions out there?

 

[northeastphillyguy]

Let us keep in mind that Amaro is not sold on Asche,and he does not like Ruf. Neither one of those players will get a fair chance to be full time players with the Phillies. My guess is that Amaro will try to trade both of them. When it comes to pitching, Halladay should not be offered a contract. Amaro can find another pitcher who is healthy and one that costs a lot less than 20 million. Also,jvett77, Hernandez will be nothing more than a utility player in 2014, 2nd base or outfield fill in. Amaro is a scary and inept GM, he is the wrong guy period!

 

[Cedrique]

Let us keep in mind that Amaro is not sold on Asche,and he does not like Ruf. Neither one of those players will get a fair chance to be full time players with the Phillies. My guess is that Amaro will try to trade both of them. When it comes to pitching, Halladay should not be offered a contract. Amaro can find another pitcher who is healthy and one that costs a lot less than 20 million. Also,jvett77, Hernandez will be nothing more than a utility player in 2014, 2nd base or outfield fill in. Amaro is a scary and inept GM, he is the wrong guy period!

He almost has to go with Asche, unless he is planning to unleash Polanco 3.0 .

 

[Omar 382]

He almost has to go with Asche, unless he is planning to unleash Polanco 3.0 .

 

[jvett77]

Let us keep in mind that Amaro is not sold on Asche,and he does not like Ruf. Neither one of those players will get a fair chance to be full time players with the Phillies. My guess is that Amaro will try to trade both of them. When it comes to pitching, Halladay should not be offered a contract. Amaro can find another pitcher who is healthy and one that costs a lot less than 20 million. Also,jvett77, Hernandez will be nothing more than a utility player in 2014, 2nd base or outfield fill in. Amaro is a scary and inept GM, he is the wrong guy period!

Asche played very good at 3rd in 50 games and though he only hit .235, you want to see him play a full season and judge his performance. Similar situation with Ruf, .257 in 2 partial seasons of 12 and 73 games, and 17 homers. If they trade these two, they're idiots and then it's just more musical chairs and nothing is accomplished. Hernandez is still young and can afford to take a utility role since he's shown he can hit and field IF/OF. Because of all the "ifs", I still think and hope Franco can play a role next year.

 

[northeastphillyguy]

Amaro will not be able to find a decent free agent 3rd baseman, those who are available in 2014, are all in their 30s,and are defensive liabilities. Mark Reynolds can still hit some bombs, but has little to no range at 3rd. However,maybe Asche and Galvis could share some time at 3rd. Amaro seems to think that players from the farm system should always perform like a high paid Veteran. When they don't show instant success, he uses it as an excuse to buy or trade for an aging Vet,who then blocks out our potential talent from getting playing time. I hope that franco lights it up in spring training,but I think he will need some more time in triple A. By the way,did I say that Amaro is the wrong guy? I never hear him say positive things about our young players,he finds fault in all of them, but he did like Michael Martinez. Go figure!

 

[Retroram52]

How about if somebody shoots brain-dead right between the eyes and flushes Wade down the River??

 

[northeastphillyguy]

That is a bit harsh Retroram52, however,the thought of being stuck with Amaro for years to come can cause frustrating thoughts.