Next Year Will Be Exciting

[jvett77]

The loss of Howard, Revere, and Ruiz for 2 to 3 months each, along with nearly a month of downtime each for Utley and Brown, resulted in 9 player-months lost of your best players. This caused a steep dropoff in hit and run production, 70 hits and 80 runs. And the replacements could not make up for that. The slide in pitching was equally dramatic, especially with the 3-month loss of Halladay.

_______W/L____hits____runs___hr___BA__ERA___ER
2011....102-60..1409.....713....153....253..3.02...495
2012.....81-81...1414.....684....158....255..3.83...618
2013....73-88..1345....605... 139...248..4.28. .677

I think it's safe to say that for each player-month lost, the Phillies probably lost 1 to 2 games, that is 9 to 18 games. And remember, the Phillies lost 27 one run games. Therefore, with a healthy roster, their 73-88 record could well have been 82-80, or even 91-71.

So next year, with the healthy return of all players, plus some positive off-season moves, the Phils will be very much improved. Book it, slam it, rub it down, bank on it.

 

[Omar 382]

I disagree with so much of this. Reply if you would like me to elaborate.

 

[WestCoastPhan]

" Therefore, with a healthy roster, their 73-88 record could well have been 82-80, or even 91-71. "



wowow! LMFAO lolol

 

[jvett77]

I disagree with so much of this. Reply if you would like me to elaborate.

Stand up and be counted. What do you think these discussions are for? Feedback is cool. + or -.

 

[jvett77]

" Therefore, with a healthy roster, their 73-88 record could well have been 82-80, or even 91-71. "

wowow! LMFAO lolol

Glad to have made you laugh, westcoast. I'm so lousy at telling jokes. Feel free to elaborate. There're no boring games left to watch.

 

[Omar 382]

Full seasons from Howard, Halladay, Revere and Ruiz might add 5 wins to our total, but there's now way we are a 90 win team. Halladay was awful, Howard was mediocre, Revere was mediocre, and Ruiz was good. I said at the beginning of the 2013 year, Howard needed to hit 35 home runs (didn't), Revere needed to hit .300 and swipe 50 bags (didn't steal 50 bags), Halladay needed to have an ERA around 3.50 (didn't), Kendrick needed to build on a decent 2012 (didn't), Adams and Paps needed to be lights out (weren't), and the rest of the bullpen needed to be decent (wasn't) in order to make the playoffs.

Furthermore, you act as if it is a sure thing that every single Phillies player will definitely be healthy next year. Fat chance, with Howard, Brown, Utley, and probably Ruiz on the roster. Also, I am not sure what positive moves you are alluding to. Ruiz will probably be resigned to a multi-year contract, and a fringe MLB player will probably be in right field.

 

[jvett77]

Number1, you haven't enlightened me at all. It's hard to steal 50 bases in 88 games. You fail to understand the value of a .354 lead off hitter (scrub april); he excelled, or the value of a .280 catcher in his prime without adderall and injury free. The Phillies were in those 27 1-run losses, many of which the bullpen blew. The missing hits and runs in the table above explain a lot of that.

Who knows what moves, if any, will be made over the winter. Maybe they'll get some pitching help via a surprising trade. What happened to Ruf in right field?

 

[Omar 382]

I realize that he can't steal 50 bags in half a season, I was saying he would have to be healthy enough to do so. You overrate Revere a lot. He's mediocre in the field, and mediocre at the plate. Even with how he caught fire towards the end of the year, he still finished with an OPS+ of 91, which means that he is a less than average hitter. A hitter's task is to create runs, and this is extremely hard to do when you have no power whatsoever. Revere would basically have to hit .330 and steal 50 bases to be considered a good offensive player. Look at Delmont Young, a hitter whose batting average finished over 50 points below that of Revere, and he still finished with an identical 91 OPS+ because of his power.

 

[Omar 382]

Also, do you honestly think that Ruiz will be injury free in 2014? And how do you know if he is Adderall free? He probably went and got a prescription for it.

 

[Retroram52]

Adderall doesn't hang around long in one's system that is for sure, Number 1.

 

[jvett77]

I realize that he can't steal 50 bags in half a season, I was saying he would have to be healthy enough to do so. You overrate Revere a lot. He's mediocre in the field, and mediocre at the plate. Even with how he caught fire towards the end of the year, he still finished with an OPS+ of 91, which means that he is a less than average hitter. A hitter's task is to create runs, and this is extremely hard to do when you have no power whatsoever. Revere would basically have to hit .330 and steal 50 bases to be considered a good offensive player. Look at Delmont Young, a hitter whose batting average finished over 50 points below that of Revere, and he still finished with an identical 91 OPS+ because of his power.

Why are you concerned that he lacks power? He's a lead off hitter and never will be a slugger. Overall .302 (less than avg?). Take away April he's .346 with OBP close to .400. Hits RHP .285, LHP .370. April was .200, May - July was 312,.354,.388. You can't beat that. Revere's task is to get on base not specifically to drive in runs.

OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played. You should look simply at his OPS which is .691, then delete his bad .200 April start and it's .712, .805, and .857 for May thru Aug. Those stats are the real measure of this player because he was still improving his average when he went down. No point at all comparing him with Delmon.

 

[Omar 382]

Why are you concerned that he lacks power? He's a lead off hitter and never will be a slugger. Overall .302 (less than avg?). Take away April he's .346 with OBP close to .400. Hits RHP .285, LHP .370. April was .200, May - July was 312,.354,.388. You can't beat that. Revere's task is to get on base not specifically to drive in runs.

OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played. You should look simply at his OPS which is .691, then delete his bad .200 April start and it's .712, .805, and .857 for May thru Aug. Those stats are the real measure of this player because he was still improving his average when he went down. No point at all comparing him with Delmon.

You're totally missing the point. Revere is a less than average hitter. A hitter's job is not solely scoring or driving in runs-this is part of the job, but the whole job is to create runs. It doesn't matter if Revere hits .360. He might lead the league in hitting, but he is no more valuable than a hitter who had a low batting average who had a lot of RBI's and runs scored.

Demon Young 2013: .260 batting average, 68 runs plus RBI's, 98 wRC+
Ben Revere 2013: .305 batting average, 54 runs plus RBI's, 92 wRC+

Who do you think had a better offensive year? Don't get me wrong, Revere is a better player than Young, but not by much, and his production certainly isn't something "you can't beat."

I also find it humorous that when you evaluate Revere's stats, you throw out his bad April and deem it a fluke, but then include stats from months when he hit .354 and .388. You have to look at the whole picture. Revere probably will fall in between these two extremes, so you have to stop looking at just 2 and a 1/2 months of play. Your love affair with Revere has to stop. He's a decent player with a great attitude, but if you are counting on him to carry the 2014 Phillies to the playoffs then you are delusional.

 

[Caligula]

The loss of Howard, Revere, and Ruiz for 2 to 3 months each, along with nearly a month of downtime each for Utley and Brown, resulted in 9 player-months lost of your best players. This caused a steep dropoff in hit and run production, 70 hits and 80 runs. And the replacements could not make up for that. The slide in pitching was equally dramatic, especially with the 3-month loss of Halladay.

_______W/L____hits____runs___hr___BA__ERA___ER
2011....102-60..1409.....713....153....253..3.02...495
2012.....81-81...1414.....684....158....255..3.83...618
2013....73-88..1345....605... 139...248..4.28. .677

I think it's safe to say that for each player-month lost, the Phillies probably lost 1 to 2 games, that is 9 to 18 games. And remember, the Phillies lost 27 one run games. Therefore, with a healthy roster, their 73-88 record could well have been 82-80, or even 91-71.

So next year, with the healthy return of all players, plus some positive off-season moves, the Phils will be very much improved. Book it, slam it, rub it down, bank on it.

It's like you aren't even watching the same sport as the rest of us.

 

[jvett77]

You're totally missing the point. Revere is a less than average hitter. A hitter's job is not solely scoring or driving in runs-this is part of the job, but the whole job is to create runs. It doesn't matter if Revere hits .360. He might lead the league in hitting, but he is no more valuable than a hitter who had a low batting average who had a lot of RBI's and runs scored.

Demon Young 2013: .260 batting average, 68 runs plus RBI's, 98 wRC+
Ben Revere 2013: .305 batting average, 54 runs plus RBI's, 92 wRC+

Who do you think had a better offensive year? Don't get me wrong, Revere is a better player than Young, but not by much, and his production certainly isn't something "you can't beat."

I also find it humorous that when you evaluate Revere's stats, you throw out his bad April and deem it a fluke, but then include stats from months when he hit .354 and .388. You have to look at the whole picture. Revere probably will fall in between these two extremes, so you have to stop looking at just 2 and a 1/2 months of play. Your love affair with Revere has to stop. He's a decent player with a great attitude, but if you are counting on him to carry the 2014 Phillies to the playoffs then you are delusional.

I already stated why Revere is an excellent hitter. I showed how he clearly improved his hitting - .200, .312,.354,and .388 - 96 hits in 88 games. That is the whole picture. Hitting .300 is vital for a lead off hitter. You say Revere is less than average. No one can believe that when the opposite has been clearly shown. The lead off hitter "creates runs" by getting on base. He likely would have finished the year much higher than .305; that is not delusional, but probable.

Delmon was always a slugger. He would have done better as a Phillie by leading off? It's just dumb trying to compare the two. Revere is a leadoff hitter. It took a month for him to find his comfort zone with a new team and new park. That's the psychological aspect to baseball.

By the way, since you like the comparison, in 88 games (incl April), Revere was .339 with runners on and .352 w/risp; hitting with 2 outs .341; scoring posn, 2 out .441. Delmon in 80 games was .229 with runners on and .256 risp; hitting with 2 outs, .235, scoring posn, 2 out .313. Revere wins over the slugger. lol. What else can I say.

 

[Omar 382]

I already stated why Revere is an excellent hitter. I showed how he clearly improved his hitting - .200, .312,.354,and .388 - 96 hits in 88 games. That is the whole picture. Hitting .300 is vital for a lead off hitter. You say Revere is less than average. No one can believe that when the opposite has been clearly shown. The lead off hitter "creates runs" by getting on base. He likely would have finished the year much higher than .305; that is not delusional, but probable.

Delmon was always a slugger. He would have done better as a Phillie by leading off? It's just dumb trying to compare the two. Revere is a leadoff hitter. It took a month for him to find his comfort zone with a new team and new park. That's the psychological aspect to baseball.

By the way, since you like the comparison, in 88 games (incl April), Revere was .339 with runners on and .352 w/risp; hitting with 2 outs .341; scoring posn, 2 out .441. Delmon in 80 games was .229 with runners on and .256 risp; hitting with 2 outs, .235, scoring posn, 2 out .313. Revere wins over the slugger. lol. What else can I say.

I don't have time for this. Why is every single statistic that measures a player's offensive contribution- offensive war, OPS+, wRC+, batting and base running combined- in the negatives? And it is extremely stupid to throw out the first month because he didn't perform well. If you do that, you have to throw out the month that he performed best. Overall, he is a less than average offensive player, and every stat I've given you proves that. I don't care about batting average. He can hit .450 for all I care, but if he can't create runs, he is not a good offensive player.

Also, keep in mind that Revere got very lucky this year at the plate. He had a .344 BABIP this year, far off his career mark prior to 2013 that was below .300 (Fangraphs won't give me the exact number).

 

[jvett77]

You make absolutely no sense, number1. The blind can't see.

 

[Caligula]

You make absolutely no sense, number1. The blind can't see.

"I think it's safe to say that for each player-month lost, the Phillies probably lost 1 to 2 games"

Yeah, lol...

 

[jvett77]

"I think it's safe to say that for each player-month lost, the Phillies probably lost 1 to 2 games"

Yeah, lol...

Excellent analysis. JUADROFLOL

 

[WestCoastPhan]

jvett, following your logic (not easy), the braves would've won 115-120 games...remember they had their share of injuries as well.Washington would've won 105-110 games.

 

[jvett77]

jvett, following your logic (not easy), the braves would've won 115-120 games...remember they had their share of injuries as well.Washington would've won 105-110 games.

Interesting, westcoast. I haven't looked at their injury tally yet. Atlanta had virtually no decline in hits and runs and won 2 more games over 2012. However, Wash had 103 less hits and 75 less runs, resulting in a loss of 12 games over 2012. Key hitters lost for a significant time matters if they are your top players, and of course, who replaces them.

ATL 12 1341 hits 700 runs 94-68 ERA 3.42
......13 1354 hits 688 runs 96-66 ERA 3.18

wsh 12 1468 hits 731 runs 98-64 ERA 3.33
......13 1365 hits 656 runs 86-76 ERA 3.59.....(103 less hits, 75 less runs - 12 less wins)