Leake is a Bird

[JohnU]

5-year deal ... seems a rather odd signing. I bet they could have had Cueto if they hadn't been such assholes about it.

 

[Redsfan1507]

5 Years / $80 Mil. BP has had a hardon for Castellini ever since he signed that kind of contract. Think hLeake will be pissed off like BP if they sign next years MVP to a $200 M deal ?

The money these days is ridiculous. Leake is a number 4 pitcher on a good staff. That's not a knock, just that $80M for a top 125 pitcher is stiff, IMO. Jason Heyward looks like Tarzan, hits like Jane...and got the Cubbies for $184 M. If that's market rate for a good outfielder with a great arm, average power and average speed, and might hit .255-.285, Votto is worth $300M.

I think there was some uncertainty about why Cueto went from unhittable as a Red, to frequent batting practice pitcher with the Royals. I'd suspect a potential injury, but I guess a physical including a MRI wouldn't be too much to ask before you sign the guy ?? If Cueto is healthy, he may be a Cy Young winner in SF.

Fans hate Cueto in St. Louis. They can sell Mike Leake there at half what they had to pay Cueto. They need another hitter there, and can stil buy, or at least trade for and pay one.

The Reds are looking to trade the batboy for a Little Leaguer to Be Named Later because they can't afford HIS salary.

 

[JohnU]

Leake should give them 200 innings. He doesn't walk people and stays healthy. Not sure where the Birds bullpen is going to land but he can get them to the 7th inning if they score runs better than the Reds did, when Leake was the 4th best hitter in the lineup.

St Louis is still not solid in the rotation ... Garcia hasn't shown he can stay healthy and if Martinez really did fuck up that shoulder, his career numbers will be very fluid. Waino will be OK, I assume. Wacha might have hit a ceiling. They need to find another arm.

I don't doubt they will, but maybe not for another year.
Leake is a nice signing for them.
I agree, the wages of fun are pretty high now and I'd wonder what these contracts really look like.

On the Reds front, no such dilemmas this year. If they unload BP, they can keep Bruce. If they keep BP, they can deal Bruce. That's fairly simple Castellini math, though evidently BC vetoed the Bruce trade last year to the Mets.

Whatever that means.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Mets believe all that young pitching means they don't have to hit, I guess. Reds knew their players stunk, but gotta keep a couple fan fav's just to sell a ticket. Personally, I saw Bruce go a month without tossing a ball into the RF stands, first time ever for that...so something is different there. Fans love Billy, but won't forever if he hits like a pitcher. Votto is a social enigma, but possibly the best all around Reds hitter ever. BP's big problem is the Reds always ask him to be something he isn't, and he's out of time- he's 34. WHO "LEADS" on this team ? Mesoraco is the obvious answer, IF he can get more than 300 AB. THAT means he has to do something other than just Catch 3 days a week and DH in a dozen interleague games.

It's a long way from opening day, and you don't know how it all shakes out, but the Cards and Cubs look like playoff teams. Cubs are done, but Cards look like they will add another player before ST. I think the Pirates lost more with Russell Martin (and Walker this year) than it appears on the stat sheet Their SP isn't great, and they don't have much power without Alverez- who they are almost guaranteed to part with. I think they are a 3rd place team. Brewers can't pitch and the Reds can't hit. If they combined into 1 team, they still wouldn't be a lock to play .500.

 

[Clayton]

St Louis is still not solid in the rotation ... Garcia hasn't shown he can stay healthy and if Martinez really did fuck up that shoulder, his career numbers will be very fluid. Waino will be OK, I assume. Wacha might have hit a ceiling. They need to find another arm.

I don't think they need to find another arm in FA but I also don't think they can expect the same results from the staff that they got last year. Cardinals will still probably have a top 6 pitching rotation but not a top 2 pitching rotation. They'll need bats and they'll need the Cubs to screw up. Division is currently tiered out:

Cubs
Cards,Pirates

Reds, Brewers


So Cardinals need another bat. There is an argument that the Cardinals can get improvement from their younger players but that will likely be met with regression from their younger players and at best is a push.

 

[JohnU]

Well, actually everybody except maybe the Cubs can use another bat in an era when pitching is specialized. There are a few marginally good hitters out there and a couple of steals. The trick is to get one without having to waste the top half of the farm system.

The other question is how much the rest of the NL-C improved.

I don't follow the Brewers much until March but they have a real overhaul ahead of them. Cincy is conceding 90 losses.

I might get an argument but I think the Parrots will miss Neil Walker more than the fans will.

I still need to see this Cubs pitching staff again -- I ain't buyin' it yet. I think it's odd that they let Samardzija walk a couple of years ago and could have him at basically discount price if they'd hung onto him.

Cubs may end up trading Soler despite what Theostein is telling us.

 

[JohnU]

Alllllll-though ... was this a smart move by the Giants to sign Samardizjia instead of Leake? They would have gotten Leake for less and IMO, Leake is a better pitcher.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Good question John.

Unless Jeff Samardzjia is simple going to improve by moving back to the NL, the Giants have signed a pitcher trending in the wrong direction that is entering his age 31 season. Couple that with a degree of uncertainty associated with Cueto's injury history and poor 2nd half performance and the Giants could go either way.
.
I'm a little surprised Leake landed in St. Louis and the $80M is slightly more than I thought he'd get. The Cards have missed out on a few FA this off season and settled for a second tier FA. There's a level of uncertainty to their rotation for me. Wacha is trending somewhat like Shelby Miller when they decided to trade him. Martinez finished injured and Wainwright is returning from injury and a late season reliever role. Lynn is out and Garcia never seems to be healthy. Molina just had a second surgery on his thumb and probably won't be ready by OD and would have to be a question mark moving forward at his age. They've struggled offensively the past two seasons and I haven't seen any acquisitions that have addressed the issue.

The Pirates look more like a franchise trying to navigate through the financial mine field that so many small teams fall victim to and may be taking a step back before trying to move forward. The Cubs on paper look to be holding a rather large stack of chips and I see them as the big stack in the Central. The NL- E teams look to be status quo while the NL- W is the division loading up this off season. There may be a power shift in the NL divisions that may not necessarily be reflected in the standings due to the top NL - C teams getting to beat up on the Reds and Brewers. Whose going to be worse, the Reds- Brewers or Rockies- Padres? The answer to that question may be the deciding factor in the wild card?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The most important fact concerning the question of Leake or Samardzjia would be whether there was mutual interest. Without being privy to conversations Mike Leake's agent may or may not have had with SF, it could be Leake had no interest in remaining there. All early reports had him trying to hook up with Arizona.

 

[JohnU]

I imagine the D-Backs were a bit surprised that they were able to land Greinke, but that likely would have shoved Leake off the table. Yeah, just because a team needs a guy doesn't mean the guy needs the team. Can't blame Leake for eyeballing St. Louis. They win the divisional title almost every year.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Haven't been as many position player big signings. There's still some fairly big fish out on the market....Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler.


The signing that surprised me was the Cubs paying 34 year old Ben Zobrist 4 yrs/ $56M. He still has descent slash numbers, but there's been a obvious decline in power and speed. I guess Joe Maddon really likes the guys makeup, but seems like a questionable signing at 4 years.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Cubs have a history of overpaying. So does Theo Epstein. Whatever you raised up around, is normal to you...

Not to disrespect the Cubs chances- I'd easily pick them as the NL favorite at this stage.


There is a lot of disparity in the NL now. Most of the worst MLB teams are in the NL- sadly I count the Reds among them.