How bad is bad?

[JohnU]

I've seen this before, but mostly in expansion years back in the 1960s, when really bad teams would lose 100 games and the top teams would all win at least 95. The 1961 Yanks won the AL pennant by about 8 games over the Tigers, who won over 100 games to finish second.

The point: Miami is awful. The Mets are awful. I think Colorado is awful. San Diego appears to be awful. Lucky for us, Houston moved to the AL, where they can be awful all on their own.

Studying Miami, which will lose at least 110 games this year and the Mets might lose 95, that would mean that the other teams in the NL-E are feasting.

In the Central, the Cubs are probably a 90-loss team but everybody else is probably at least .550.

In the West, the Padres are better than people think, and probably so are the Rockies. NL-W is going to be a dogfight.

It's going to take at LEAST 92 wins to make a wild-card. The 19 games the teams play inside their own division will mean a lot of teams in the East will be beating Miami and the Mets. It's the same thing we had last year in the Central with the AAAstros and the Cubs.

 

[eburg5000]

The Cubs might lose 90 plus games, but the Cardinals Pirates and Brewers are all looking good right now. This is going to be a tough division to win.

 

[JohnU]

I am assuming that none of them get too many injuries. Already, the Reds are dodging some bullets with way too many guys on the hurt list. If the Parrots lose anybody from their lineup, that could unravel pretty fast.

I am still a little awed by the way the Rockies started out but they can't sustain that, can they? I mean ... really?

 

[Tubbs1518]

When the season ends I only expect 2 teams to be above .500 in this division. 3 tops. I think the Reds win this division by probably 8-10 games. I don't think the Cards or Brewers stay above .500. I'm not sure the Pirates do either honestly. They were supposed to finish over .500 last year too remember?

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think there are only 6 teams in real contention over the NL season, even if some aren't currently. I don't believe in the Rockies, 4 months from now. I'm not overly impressed with any teams other than the Reds in the NLC, but they can't keep getting swept by teams like the Pirates. If you are content with hanging around .500 early, it just makes it easier for another team to put up a late charge. Much like a lineup wins more by leading early, the psychological pressure on teams way behind usually helps the front runner. On the flip side, you aid a teams momentum ( Cardinals normal M-O) by not burying them by August.