Series Thread: Fierce Carp Vs Large angry cats

[Cbrower91]

im guessing Jones vs Rinne

No line up changes that I've seen

 

[Cbrower91]

Well I can't edit that to GDT

 

[sjrules99]

just got back... Not a terrible game, a few little mistakes cost em but not too bad. Pretty much an even game I'd say. A few observations:

First the good:

1. Pavelski is the captain. he is the heart and soul and is just unquestionable in his heart. You all know he's been my boy for like a decade dating back to wisconsin and he still is the Big Pavelski.

2. Jumbo played well as did Donskoi. In fact donskoi looks like he really could be the real deal with some NHL experience, confidence, and chemistry time. He is clearly a great fit on line 1.

Now the bad:

1. Tommy wingels. He was horrific, many goofs, bad plays with the puck, fumblesa, half assed plays. He looked like he was playing with the flu. He is swiftly become a nieto + some physicality. neither he nor nieto is factoring in offensively at all, and its making what should be a good third line with tierney rather useless.

2. patrick marleau. again. he wasnt god awful, but again several poor plays with the puck, not using his speed much, and just overall disappointing. Sorry, but his production is just getting worse and worse. On the bright side, he was not a minus! yaay!!

3. The PP. It blows. or namely, the 2nd unit blows. Basically after the first unit gets one minute or so, the rest of the PP is over. They have NO chemistry or system. This is partly players, largely deboer...

4. Deboer and the after-tie let down. The sharks battled respectable this game throughout the first two periods and to start and end the 3rd. BUT, after they tied it, they spent the next 5 minutes running around the own zone as nashville's possession game dominated them. I thought they had battled so hard to tie, and then, in typical shark fashion, went into fucking hibernation. Basically they gave a 50 minute effort and the 5 minute let down after the goal cost them the game. I was PISSED because I had watched that shit show the last two years, but the 60 minute game just wasnt there.

Deboer looked like a total genious out of the gate. then injuries hit, but now everyone is back aside from cooch. and the team has one win in regulation in the last 6 and has been outscored by a billion over that stretch. Deboer has not rediscovered the chemistry or handled adversity at all. You knew adversity would come and now they are showing the true colors.

5. 15,200 fans. Roughly 2,400 empty seats, and another L. 1-2 on the homestand, and after the collapse vs. la, the shiot show of a summer, the disaster of last season, the fans are tired of it. Now they are just 2-2 at home, and if they dont win at SAP, 15,200 will be 14 and then 13,000 soon. Its real trouble, and it makes me fear that hasso will start getting cheap and doug will start getting desperate. $$$ talk and 15,200 leaves about $200k per game on the table. over the season, the team's revenues may easily fall 8-10 million. it wont be long before the salaries follow suit.

Losing begets losing, so this is a HUGE season for the long term trajectory of the franchise.

 

[MrFlyingV]

Deboer = TMac = RWilson....

Nothing changes, because the core hasn't changed and the Sharks continually can't develop young offensive talent. It is rare. Pavelski, maybe Couture...but other than that nothing since Marleau. They start bright and they fade. Nieto, Hertl, Wingels are currently on the fence. They are starting to bore me those 3. Are they the next Seto, Cheech, Bernier, Michalek, and so many others I can't remember. Sharks are the same old same old every year. Marleau is drifting in old age much faster than Thornton. Another year of this same old and same old and next year too maybe. Where is the hope and bright young star on the Sharks? There is no Curry, Carr or Posey here. No one is excited about Barclay Goodrow. What actually is a Barclay Goodrow anyways? Even had a John McCarthy sighting this week. Woo hoo. Watching John McCarthy play is like watching grass grow. The (fairweather) fans are running out of gas and are no longer interested in the same old shit show. A dramatic change will bring them back but that is not in the cards for awhile.

See 49ers for the same thing. Levi Stadium is really going to be empty too now. Hey, you have the Warriors and the Giants here. You have to keep up with the Jones and compete and put out an exciting product to tap into the fickle Bay Area dollar. It is expensive here. Who wants to waste their hard earned money on shit shows like the Sharks, A's, and 49ers now.

 

[Cbrower91]

Eh I'll take the wait and see approach, believe it or not the Preds are a top 5 team in the league now and the sharks are not 2-1 loss not the end of the world. Contour is a massive loss when your next 3 forwards behind him only produce half his numbers. It screws up the PP and PK. Also no Ralphie no Melker that's 3 of your top 12 out and they are still putting a competive team on the ice.

Marleau and Thornton are 36 and they can no longer carry the team and Pavelski can't do it on his own and he needs couture.

 

[sjrules99]

Eh I'll take the wait and see approach, believe it or not the Preds are a top 5 team in the league now and the sharks are not 2-1 loss not the end of the world. Contour is a massive loss when your next 3 forwards behind him only produce half his numbers. It screws up the PP and PK. Also no Ralphie no Melker that's 3 of your top 12 out and they are still putting a competive team on the ice.

Marleau and Thornton are 36 and they can no longer carry the team and Pavelski can't do it on his own and he needs couture.

Its true that 3 solid top 9 forwards are out (I would say torres, melker and cooch are all better than the stardard 4th liners). That said, their D depth lacking is glaring. I had high hopes for nieto, wingels, and hertl (as well as karlsson) and so far none are doing too much. This is a Huge year for all 4 as last year, none of them hit so far as 20 goals, which is a reasonable 3rd line player. Wingels had 16 goals, then 15 goals, so if he is a 15goal, 35 pt player, then hes an average 3rd liner and nothing more. Nieto had 10 goals in each of the last two years, and if he continues that, then he is arguably not even a 3rd line talent. Hertl started amazing, but he is now 1.5 yrs from the injury and still looks like a fragment of the old hertl. Better than last year, but far from dominant. melker had a solid 13 goals last year, but still hasnt played yet, so the jury is out. if those young players dont get better than the potential of 4 top 9 (or possibly top 6) forwards fizzles into a few mediocre 3rd liners.

btw, they havent just failed to develop good forwards. They also havent developed much on D. Vlasic is the best they've done, probably ever and with all due respect to pickles, he's a great defensive Dman but nowhere near a true star capable of being a top pairing on a good team. The sharks have literally never created a top pairing Dman in the NHL in their history. Bozo was the closest but he was nowhere near norris caliber.

Also, they have likely never created a single to-be-hall of famer. Patty is the closest, but all due respect to him, he is a minus player in the thornton era and was nothing much until jumbo arrived on the scene. He is really not a real 1st line player either and really belongs on a 2nd line on a good team. pavs is good, but HOF is a major stretch.

Basically, they have never created internally a star. I would have to check but I would guess that no internal candidate has ever been in the top 10 for MVP voting or top 10 for the Norris. that's piss poor.

 

[sjrules99]

speaking of the fans, tortora talked about better engagement. I havent noticed. I met him at the Season ticket holder event over the summer and told him about my 4 year old who loves the sharks. he said email me and Ill send him something. I did, tortora didnt respond, and I got nothing. What a fuckface.

If the sharks make the PO's, fans will likely come back, but if they suck and continue to lose with regularity at home, then the 11-12k season ticket holders will quickly dwindle to 8-9k and attendence could be in the 13-14k range. Not to mention, the much cheaper AHL is in the same building competing with them. Ticket prices are high and the team is gunna be in big big trouble if they go into any prolonged slump. 2 more years of missing the PO's and the retirement of patty and jumbo could leave that building half empty and the roster way cheaper. argh!

 

[Cbrower91]

Its true that 3 solid top 9 forwards are out (I would say torres, melker and cooch are all better than the stardard 4th liners). That said, their D depth lacking is glaring. I had high hopes for nieto, wingels, and hertl (as well as karlsson) and so far none are doing too much. This is a Huge year for all 4 as last year, none of them hit so far as 20 goals, which is a reasonable 3rd line player. Wingels had 16 goals, then 15 goals, so if he is a 15goal, 35 pt player, then hes an average 3rd liner and nothing more. Nieto had 10 goals in each of the last two years, and if he continues that, then he is arguably not even a 3rd line talent. Hertl started amazing, but he is now 1.5 yrs from the injury and still looks like a fragment of the old hertl. Better than last year, but far from dominant. melker had a solid 13 goals last year, but still hasnt played yet, so the jury is out. if those young players dont get better than the potential of 4 top 9 (or possibly top 6) forwards fizzles into a few mediocre 3rd liners.

btw, they havent just failed to develop good forwards. They also havent developed much on D. Vlasic is the best they've done, probably ever and with all due respect to pickles, he's a great defensive Dman but nowhere near a true star capable of being a top pairing on a good team. The sharks have literally never created a top pairing Dman in the NHL in their history. Bozo was the closest but he was nowhere near norris caliber.

Also, they have likely never created a single to-be-hall of famer. Patty is the closest, but all due respect to him, he is a minus player in the thornton era and was nothing much until jumbo arrived on the scene. He is really not a real 1st line player either and really belongs on a 2nd line on a good team. pavs is good, but HOF is a major stretch.

Basically, they have never created internally a star. I would have to check but I would guess that no internal candidate has ever been in the top 10 for MVP voting or top 10 for the Norris. that's piss poor.

Marleau was a first line player on any team, now he's where he should be on the second line. That being said I'm over Neito package him with Dillion to land competent #5 dman. Wingels overall body of work gives him a few outs, he's having a slow start it happens. Hertls doing fine, once he can drop back down to the 3rd line he's going to take off. Melker as long as he keeps doing what he did he will be good for 20/20 40 pnts

 

[sjrules99]

Marleau was a first line player on any team, now he's where he should be on the second line. That being said I'm over Neito package him with Dillion to land competent #5 dman. Wingels overall body of work gives him a few outs, he's having a slow start it happens. Hertls doing fine, once he can drop back down to the 3rd line he's going to take off. Melker as long as he keeps doing what he did he will be good for 20/20 40 pnts

Anyone with jumbo in his prime was a first liner. Prior to jumbo, the patty had never got more than 57 pts in a season. Here are his points at EV since he entered the league (excludes shortened season):

25, 35, 30, 40, 36, 34, 35, 42, 41, 31, 22, 45, 54, 44, 39, 45, 33

Do you notice anything? Only one season above 45 points at even strength. virtually no difference between the pre-jumbo and post-jumbo era (maybe an average of 5-10 pts higher.) His whole "1st line" argument centers around the PP, which is bascially 100% jumbo related, because the sharks have been among the best PP teams since jumbo joined.

Patty is a 2nd liner who has paraded as a 1st liner sucking on Jumbo's pwerplay prowess titties. He has averaged .46 even strength points per game or roughly 38 EV points per 82 games. Wow. impressive.

For comparison:

Couture: .497 (roughly 41 EVP/82)
Jumbo: .619 (roughly 51 EVP/82)
Pavelski: .449 (roughly 37 EVP/82... Though this number is rising steadily as the last 5 years have seen: .54, .48, .51, .56, and .48 respectively)

Outside the sharks:
Stamkos: .649 (53 EVP/82)
Ovie (a PP wizard): .707 (58 EVP/82)

Or a more realistic comparison of vets truly in patty's class (or better) at EV:
Justin williams: .462 (38 EVP/82)
Mike Ribeiro: .484 (40 EVP/82)
Loui Eriksson: .503 (41 EVP/82)
Jiri Hudler: .44 (36 EVP/ 82)

I could go on, but the numbers dont lie. Patty is in the class of guys like Justin williams, Mike Ribeiro, or Loui eriksson. Good players for sure, but not 1st liners aside from maybe one or two good years (like patty had 5 years ago in 09-10). patty's career .46 is miles and miles below real 1st liners like the aforemention stamkos or ovie or sid (.82). Or even good aging vets of similar age and games played like hossa (.58), lecavelier (.51), Taguay (.57), gagne (.47), gomez (.47)... patty is lower than all of them.



So, obviously patty doesnt totally suck, but he is well below cooch and jumbo's career EV production and well below each of the last 5 years of pavelski's. Hell, even hertl is at .39 (32 EVP/82) not far behind.

Add in the +/- numbers and it highlights even further that patty is a PP specialist in essence with mediocre EV abilities (about par with a standard 2nd liner)

 

[Cbrower91]

So let me get his straight Pavelski riding shot gun with Thornton is a bona fide first liner but when it's patty not so much lol

 

[sjrules99]

So let me get his straight Pavelski riding shot gun with Thornton is a bona fide first liner but when it's patty not so much lol

1. Pavelski has better EV numbers than patty averaging .52 over the last 5 years (43EVP/82)
2. Pavelski is superior in other aspects of the game:
-he's career +80 and has never had a minus season. Ever.
- Since 2010-11, when pavs really started playing with jumbo, he's +69, patty is -15 over the same span. Cooch, who has not played with jumbo at all at EV is +43. Those arent simply matchups or a few bad line changes, that's a difference of 84 goals or 17 goals per season between pavs and patty. That's a huge number and probably translates to at least 5+ more wins (10+ more points.). last year especially was a +12 for pavs vs. -17 for patty. that's 29 goals difference, which is probably around 8-10 wins, or on the low end of 16 points difference. that's the difference between making and missing the PO's last year.
- pavs has heart. Its unquestionable. he gives it his all, every game. every shift. he is the "swiss army knife", the guy everyone talks about wanting on their team. patty, on the other hand, floats around alot, is called gutless not just by JR, but around the league he's been highly questioned many times. He's not known at all for his heart or his effort. He's got better size, speed, and raw skill than pavs hands down, but pavelski is captain now (about two years too late) because he has heart and patty does not.

Anyways, I am not saying that Patty is a bad player. He's just not the 1st liner that everyone thinks he is or that his overall numbers can suggest at a glance. He is a reasonable 2nd liner with some defensive holes, who is a sniper on the PP. His PP work is not useless as a PP goal counts the same as EV, so I am not saying that he is worthless at all. Just that he is not really a 1st liner on his own right. I think pavs is and pavs can carry a line on his own, much like jumbo can, but patty cannot.

 

[sjrules99]

1. Pavelski has better EV numbers than patty averaging .52 over the last 5 years (43EVP/82)
2. Pavelski is superior in other aspects of the game:
-he's career +80 and has never had a minus season. Ever.
- Since 2010-11, when pavs really started playing with jumbo, he's +69, patty is -15 over the same span. Cooch, who has not played with jumbo at all at EV is +43. Those arent simply matchups or a few bad line changes, that's a difference of 84 goals or 17 goals per season between pavs and patty. That's a huge number and probably translates to at least 5+ more wins (10+ more points.). last year especially was a +12 for pavs vs. -17 for patty. that's 29 goals difference, which is probably around 8-10 wins, or on the low end of 16 points difference. that's the difference between making and missing the PO's last year.
- pavs has heart. Its unquestionable. he gives it his all, every game. every shift. he is the "swiss army knife", the guy everyone talks about wanting on their team. patty, on the other hand, floats around alot, is called gutless not just by JR, but around the league he's been highly questioned many times. He's not known at all for his heart or his effort. He's got better size, speed, and raw skill than pavs hands down, but pavelski is captain now (about two years too late) because he has heart and patty does not.

Anyways, I am not saying that Patty is a bad player. He's just not the 1st liner that everyone thinks he is or that his overall numbers can suggest at a glance. He is a reasonable 2nd liner with some defensive holes, who is a sniper on the PP. His PP work is not useless as a PP goal counts the same as EV, so I am not saying that he is worthless at all. Just that he is not really a 1st liner on his own right. I think pavs is and pavs can carry a line on his own, much like jumbo can, but patty cannot.

One other key difference: faceoffs

Pavs career %: 55.9% (never less than 51.8% in any year).
marleau: 51.6% (under 50% the last 3 years).

 

[Cbrower91]

Marleau is 36 Pavelski is 30, Pavelski has never played on a bad sharks team where as Patty has been on some pretty horrendous teams that's why the stats are never going to tell the whole story