fantasy football question

[maniax]

I figured I'd ask here since this is a neutral site, fantasy wise, for me.

I'm playing in standard ESPN rules, no PPR, 2 starting RBs 2 starting WRs.

My RBs are: Rice, Charles (IR), Starks, Lynch, Pierre Thomas, Helu.
My WRs are: Calvin Johnson, Britt, AJ Green, Julio Jones plus guys like Roy Williams and Crabtree are on the waiver wire.

I have a trade proposal for Ryan Mathews for Calvin Johnson straight up.

Do you guys think after last week Mathews is gonna take the job from Tolbert? He's definitely the more explosive of the two.

So either I decline the trade and go with starters:
RB: Rice, Starks, unproven backup
WR: Calvin, Britt, AJ Green

Or accept it:

RB: Rice, Mathews, Starks
WR: Britt, AJ Green, unproven backup

 

[maniax]

I'm kind of in a waiting pattern for some of my backup RBs to take off.

Starks still have to yank the job away from Grant, Pierre Thomas has to beat out Ingram, Helu has to beat out Hightower.

 

[PWilly52]

I would reject. Chragers dont run a whole lot and the Lions are primarily a passing team. Youd be giving up prob the best reciever in the game for not even a top 15 RB

 

[maniax]

Ok but then I'd be going with Rice and Starks as my starting RBs the whole season, and a bunch of guys who are kind of mediocre right now (Lynch, Pierre Thomas, Helu).

If Mathews can take over the starting job completely from Tolbert he's a top 10, maybe top 5 back.

Plus at WR I still have Britt and AJ Green, and Julio Jones, Roy Williams, etc. as backups.

 

[clyde_carbon]

How the hell were you able to get Rice and Charles?

 

[SY8goat]

I ran across this on Insider. Hope it helps!
Pass It On

This section uses tape review and metrics to help make a trade recommendation for a player whose recent performance suggests he is either a buy-low or sell-high candidate.

Ryan Mathews

Mathews has posted solid fantasy numbers the past two weeks, but Mike Tolbert has him beat in targets (18 to 14) and receptions (17 to 10), and has nearly equaled him in rush attempts (21 to 24).

Those numbers make it look like this will be a 50/50 platoon situation for the rest of the year. But Mathews' showing in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric indicates that could be changing soon.

GBYPA measures how productive a ball carrier is when he receives a good blocking situation. A season-ending mark of 6 yards in this category is considered solid, with less than that being subpar and more being above average.

Look at Mathews' and Tolbert's numbers after two games:

Mathews: 11 good blocking attempts, 90 yards gained, 8.2 GBYPA

Tolbert: nine good blocking attempts, 30 yards gained, 3.3 GBYPA

While it's a very small sample size, with that kind of variance in productivity it won't be long before Chargers head coach Norv Turner will have no choice but to start giving Mathews a higher percentage of the workload. That makes him a great trade target.

 

[maniax]

How the hell were you able to get Rice and Charles?

Auction draft. Here's my draft recap. I dropped Daniel Thomas unfortunately because stupid Reggie Bush had that huge first week so I dropped him and he's gone.

7 Jamaal Charles*, KC RB $61
12 Ray Rice, Bal RB $59
25 Matthew Stafford, Det QB $3
26 Calvin Johnson, Det WR $40
73 Kenny Britt, Ten WR $3
86 Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB $3
90 Owen Daniels, Hou TE $7
91 Patriots D/ST D/ST $2
95 James Starks, GB RB $2
96 Pierre Thomas, NO RB $1
101 A.J. Green, Cin WR $2
106 Julio Jones, Atl WR $1
110 Daniel Thomas, Mia RB $6
114 Mason Crosby, GB K $1
122 Zach Miller, Sea TE $9

 

[clyde_carbon]

Gotcha

 

[deep9er]

IMO its a no brainer, keep Calvin Johnson.

 

[PWilly52]

britt for matthews is way more even of a deal. He prob wont do it but the other is an attempt to rip u off.

 

[cwrector77]

britt for matthews is way more even of a deal. He prob wont do it but the other is an attempt to rip u off.

Britt is gonna be a beast all year too. I think I would just stick with your current roster. Starks isn't a terrible option, and I heard Helu may be over taking Hightower soon. Just be patient, guys are gonna get hurt and you wanna have your depth.

 

[maniax]

It's a tough call. I'm gonna have to sleep on it. Today, it does seem like a bit of a rip off for me.

But if Mathews does take over and get 80% of the action, he's gonna be a real beast, possibly top 3 to 5 RB.

It's a matter of trading receiver depth for running back depth.

 

[Smoke]

Now way I'd do it. Tolbert is and will get the majority of the goal line carries.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

How the hell were you able to get Rice and Charles?

I was wondering the same thing. And Megatron? Sign me up for that league.

Re: the offer, I wouldn't take it. Mathews is still a pretty big question mark, and Megatron is looking like one of the top receivers. I'd still look for an upgrade, of course, but I don't have all that much faith in Mathews.

 

[SRPnVA]

IMO its a no brainer, keep Calvin Johnson.

LOL it really is a no brainer. 4 TDs in 2 weeks.

 

[maniax]

I'm thinking today about counter-offering:

I give up:

Calvin
Marshawn Lynch (he's not bad but Seattle's running game is the worst I will never trust this guy enough to start him, he could lay an egg any week)
Titans D

I get:

Ryan Mathews
Brandon Lloyd
Packers D

So my starting RBs are: Rice, Mathews, then backup is Starks
My startings WRs are: Britt, AJ Green, then backups Lloyd, Julio Jones

 

[threelittleturds]

You'd be crazy to get rid of Megatron. He's a TD machine and their primary weapon in the redzone. The Chargers are looking for Gates or Jackson in the redzone, they might run it in from time to time to keep defenses honest.. but for the most part they'll take advantage of those big body receivers.

Plus, with Tolbert's 3 TDs on the year to Matthews 1. It seems like he is their goalline RB. Matthews may end up being their workhorse, but Tolbert seems to be their money back.

 

[Badger8843]

Tolbert will be the goaline back in SD for the entire year, that wont change, he is also the best protector meaning a lot of 3rd downs. mathews is very very overrated

 

[SRPnVA]

Don't trade Calvin when your QB is Stafford. Wouldn't make sense. That's guaranteed numbers every week!

 

[maniax]

So am I the only one who sees fantasy superstar potential in Ryan Mathews?

So far he's way outperforming Tolbert, and Tolbert is questionable which opens the door for Mathews.

Tolbert is a bruiser but he lacks the speed and home run threat of Mathews.


Here are there stats through 2 games, Mathews is averaging 2x of Tolbert:

rushing
Ryan Mathews 24 109 4.5 21 1
Mike Tolbert 21 45 2.1 13 1

receiving:
Mike Tolbert 17 131 7.7 21 2
Ryan Mathews 10 135 13.5 37 0