Choo choo

[JohnU]

Get used to it. We need a center fielder.

Choo is a Ranger.

 

[anotheridiot]

You think your speedster Billy Hamilton will get a chance or do you reds fans want him to? I hope he gets a shot of being more than a late inning pinch runner. Its exciting to watch.

 

[JohnU]

You think your speedster Billy Hamilton will get a chance or do you reds fans want him to? I hope he gets a shot of being more than a late inning pinch runner. Its exciting to watch.

Reds front office doesn't think he's ready. Whatever that means. He needs to work on his hitting, not his baserunning, so having him as late-inning speed doesn't really help. He needs to learn to bunt if he hasn't. The problem is, I don't see anybody in the organization who can play CF, unless it's a Heisey-Schumaker platoon. (Be still, my heart.)

So there may be a deal in the works.

I would love to see Hamilton get a shot at it. He's a game changer.

On base, and it's an 80 percent chance of being a double.

 

[tlakes20]

Maybe it's just me, but I think that is way overpaying.

 

[kramer1]

Reds front office doesn't think he's ready. Whatever that means. He needs to work on his hitting, not his baserunning, so having him as late-inning speed doesn't really help. He needs to learn to bunt if he hasn't. The problem is, I don't see anybody in the organization who can play CF, unless it's a Heisey-Schumaker platoon. (Be still, my heart.)

So there may be a deal in the works.

I would love to see Hamilton get a shot at it. He's a game changer.

On base, and it's an 80 percent chance of being a double.

Jocketty thinks he's ready and was quoted as saying he's the CF'er come opening day.

He can't hit a lick, though. The BHam experiment will fail.

 

[JohnU]

Jocketty thinks he's ready and was quoted as saying he's the CF'er come opening day.

He can't hit a lick, though. The BHam experiment will fail.

I read that last evening, which is a change of opinion from November. I honestly think WJ is guessing at it. He's also managing the team, which will create a ton of problems unless Price has an opinion that nobody is asking.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Walt's flip flopping like a politician on Hamilton. In November when he thought he could trade for a CF/ lead-off hitter, "Hamilton wasn't ready". Now all of a sudden "Hamilton is the man" when the trade front turns cold.

 

[JohnU]

A lot of that going on. I noticed the Orioles accidentally coincidentally found a "closer" after somebody decided they'd fucked up and offered Balfour too much money. So Baldy trumps up an issue over an injury and ... voila! they suddenly, the next day, decided they had a closer in Hunter.

Walt is doing the same thing. Hamilton was supposed to be ready in 2014 and somebody obviously thought they could confuse that a little. Well, no ... he isn't.

Well, we couldn't unload Phillips so I guess we have to go back to the original premise. Why, yes ... Hamilton is ready.

The more I see this stuff, the more amusing it becomes.

NL teams are not buying free agents this year.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

You need a bullshitter decoder ring to translate what Walt is saying.

He'll say, "We're not in talks with anyone about trading Phillips".
What it really means: "How could I be in talks with someone else, I'm talking to you at the moment....excuse me I'm expecting a call from the Yankees".

Or on BP's status with the team: "Brandon is a part of this team".
In other words: "I've been trying to trade him, but nobody will take him".

My personal favorite: "We like our everyday club".
Walt meant: "Haven't been able to improve the club, hope I don't get fired".

 

[JohnU]

I think the offensive strategy is for Hamilton to improve his OBP from .310 to .423 (to equal Choo's) by bunting more. He will then steal second. Phillips, hitting 2nd, will pop out. They'll walk Votto and Bruce and Ludwick will strike out.

 

[eburg5000]

I think the offensive strategy is all built on hope. They hope Hamilton is ready, They hope Votto Bruce and Ludwick will hit 350 with 40 HR's They hope Cozart, Frazier and will hit better

 

[Hit-n-Run]

In the last four seasons I only consider the 2012 team as a serious contender to win it all. The 2010-11 teams didn't have the pitching and 2013 the team didn't have the roster depth or the remaining budget to over come injuries.

The 2012 team had big years from two players that weren't really expected. Ludwick's 26 HR's for $2M and Frazier's 19 HR's off the bench for the MLB minimum propelled that offense, especially during Votto's absence. Combine that with getting 30 starts from 5 SP's and a lights out bullpen, then you're cooking.

The 2014 Reds' are going to need the same kind of magic to be a serious contender. It's hard to imagine the pitching being as healthy after all the injuries last season, it's even harder to imagine two or three of the predicted everyday players having break out seasons that would propel this team to the pennant.

 

[JohnU]

I will not be surprised if it goes either way. One win a month more or less and you're either in first place or fourth place.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It could be worse. Dusty could still be here, without Choo, and with Hamilton. After a month of pressuring him to swing for homers, we'd have Corey Patterson back in CF.

I don't know if Hamilton can lead off, but I know Phillips can...I've seen him do it. Hamilton has better skills than Stubbs had, and at least now, he has a manager that won't try to make him into Matt Kemp. I don't know if Phillips .260/18 HR can hit cleanup, but I'm sure Bruce's 35 HR can. I don't know that the reason Homer Bailey refuses to sign an extension is that he wants to go be a free agent Ranger, but Id say a guy with 2 no hitters and 10 years of arm left can be traded for a better bat than Ryan Ludwick, and any old hack not named Dunn or Alonzo can play D in LF. Mesoraco will throw out a lot more runners catching someone besides Bailey, who is among the worst at holding runners, and Leake who no one ever passes up an opportunity to swing on rather than steal on. Cozart was a 20+ SB player in the minors, that was only allowed 3 attempts in 2 years by Dusty. The most dominant lefty arm in a generation was reduced to watching from the bullpen, without an impact appearence while zero home playoff games were won in 2 post season tries.

There is hope of lessons learned from an intelligent new manager that has had several years of lessons learned in what not to do... and a roster "void" or two gives necessity for new opportunity to win in ways doomed to lack of trying, in the status quo complacency of Dusty's world where stealing is a sin, lefties can't be trusted, and urgency was the enemy. The biggest gain might just be the subtraction of a constipated manager that refused to advance a runner without a 2 out hit or a homer, but was somehow always one more hitter short, even if they gave him another one every year.

The Cardinals survived without the greatest hitter in their history, the Braves still made post season without Chipper. The Redsox won a Series just giving up Popeyes and Budwieser, with a pitching staff they would trade for our Reds' in a second. It's not so much the number of tools, but the ability to use the ones you have. I wouldn't count the Reds out just yet.

 

[JohnU]

I'd agree that it isn't a given that Hamilton will lead off. There is some reason to believe he will hit 8th, which isn't ideal but it does negate the bunt a little if he gets on base.

Phillips leading off, moving Votto into the 2 spot, maybe Bruce next, then Ludwick, Mesoraco ... Bruce isn't a great 3 hitter but he's not awful.

I haven't heard. Jocketty ain't the manager and Price has been silent. Can't blame him. It's hard to do a lineup when you don't know who all the players are going to be.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Obviously, spring training will be required before Price knows what he has. I think Hamilton will get every chance to succeed, and that means trying to get him on base with an opportunity to steal bases. I'm not sure that relegating the only guy in the lineup averaging 20+HR and .300 BA (Votto) to a tablesetter role makes sense though.

Funny, lots of people are down on Votto because a single stat (RBI) was below expectations, but seem to be happy with Phillips when only one stat was at or above expectations (RBI). If Votto had posted Philips numbers (.260 / 18 HR ) in a full season, they would be ready to run him out of town. Votto being walked more than any NL hitter isn't just because he refused to swing- he struck out over 100 times. I believe the lineup spot means a lot about opportunity- and since Votto also was 5th in hits, and had good RISP stats, and still hit 24 HR in a down year, and the guy hitting behind him, Phillips hit into as many DP's as hit homers, while never walking and hitting .260, there was little reason to give him many pitches to drive. Phillips didnt walk because he's a swingaholic with less than elite power, and the guy hitting behind him, Bruce, was the MOST likely Red to hit a homer.

I don't believe pitchers in a small park fear giving up a 1 run single nearly as much as they fear a 3 run homer. That, IMO explains why Votto walks more than Phillips.

The 2 spot hit less than .230 in front if Votto for all but a month if the season. Choo was on base over 40% of the time, and that's the only reason Votto had as many RBI as he had. Phillips also benefited from Choo, but also from Votto, who set the all time Reds record for times on base in a season. That explains how a .260 / 18HR guy can wind up with 100 RBI.

Bruce also had 100 RBI- but hit over 30 HE again, and contrary to Dusty's fear if back to back lefty hitters in the lineup, Bruce also hit lefty pitchers better than either righty cleanup hitter BP or Ludwick. I see no reason to create a Dusty like void at the cleanup spot as long as Bruce is clubbing, and I never saw BP as a middle of the order hitter because he lacks the power for the job. I'd like to see Hamilton get on base to use his best weapon, but BP has to improve his ability to get on or hit more HR, and I see getting on base more as more likely. Dat Dude only avast ages about 15 HR a year, and he's no spring chicken anymore. Votto is the most complete hitter on the team, THE definition of a 3 hitter, and Bruce has the most power and RBI potential, THE definition of a 4 hitter. I think by default that makes BP a 1-2 hitter, and everyone else is 5-8.

Without Frazier and Ludwick hitting better, it's going to be tough to score more, regardless of what 1-4 hitters produce. If they improve a little, and everyone else does meet normal expectations, the Reds could go a long way.

 

[JohnU]

I also would like Phillips in the 2 spot but if Hamilton can't cut it, there's not much choice.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Parusing the stats- OBP...career numbers:

Votto .419, Schumaker .343, Bruce .330, Phillips .320, Frazier .318, the rest are pretty ugly- Heisey .307, Ludwick-.295,Cozart .287, Mesoraco .282.

I was surprised to see Skip that high, and that Bruce was higher than Phillips, and Frazier so close to Phillips. Obviously, "fat ass" Rosecrans might have a point about BP's relative absentee baserunner issue. His OBP isn't impressive after all. One word on Hamilton- he's had a couple of minor league seasons where he hit well above .300 and over .400 OBP- his AAA .250 BA last year wasn't impressive, but not horrible considering his first year at AAA, and he did get on base enough to steal all those bases. I like his chances better than Stubbs at getting on base anyway. Mesoraco has made big strides at every level in his 2nd full year, so maybe he's due for an uptick from his pedestrian numbers last year too. Cozart, not so much- but I like his D at SS, and the kid can steal a few bases if allowed. This lineup scares me if they have to live and die with a 2 out hit and solo homer philosophy, but if Price can get them to manufacture a few more runs, they can win some games with the pitching they have.

 

[JohnU]

I had mentiioned on another board about Skippy being a leadoff guy and got laughed off to the left margin. Putting it another way, WJ didn't sign this guy because he needed another Jack Hannahan.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Schumaker has spent half his career hitting leadoff, so I fail to see why anyone would not see him as a possible leadoff candidate. Most fans see BP as a table setter, I've always seen him as a 6-7 hitter that moved up in the order due to the lack of a better alternative. There's not too many players in the game today that have walked less than BP given the number of PA's he's had.

Looking at the career OBP's listed above, I thought Ludwick's sounded a little low. It's actually .332 which is third among the players listed.

The Reds' roster is redundant in a lot of ways. Other than Votto, most of them have poor plate discipline and don't walk enough leading to lower than needed OBP. They have below average team speed which hinders stealing bases and need to hit and run more, but is risky for a team with a overall unreliable contact rate. The overall team has small park power and poor instincts on the base paths. Not all of the poor base running is the coaches.