Choo choo

[eburg5000]

The Reds' roster is redundant in a lot of ways. Other than Votto, most of them
have poor plate discipline and don't walk enough leading to lower than needed
OBP. They have below average team speed which hinders stealing bases and need to
hit and run more, but is risky for a team with a overall unreliable contact
rate. The overall team has small park power and poor instincts on the base
paths. Not all of the poor base running is the coaches.

Hopefully better coaching will take care of most of that. Dusty's philosophy was swing for the fences, And that's what Brook Jacoby taught.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, I've rarely seen a team with as much talent as the Reds have, die as much from "Suicide by Stupidity" as they do...plate philosophy, baserunning and surprisingly bad situational play. It IS a team thing- I've seen gaffes from both players and coaches at a too frequent rate. There is no magic wand- improvements are usually made in small increments. Bruce improved again last year- didnt go through as many prolonged slumps and did walk a little more. I thought he drove in runs more consistently.

Cozart ended the season hitting a little better- maybe coincidence but I thought his move out of the 2 hole helped him. Bailey pitched better than his W-L suggests I think. Latos stepped up. Leake had a solid year. Parra did surprisingly well. Chapman is just dominant. Cueto's health is a concern considering his high ceiling, but if the rest of the rotation didnt step up the way they did, it would look far worse. Schumaker isn't going to be an MVP, but he does have some skills worth using. Frazier improved defensively, and still has time to hit better. Phillips is a gifted fielder that can hit pretty well for a middle infielder. Votto has HOF potential, and I don't think Bruce has had his best year yet.

I like this team better than the team Dusty started with. I also like chances of improvement without him, not so much because I think he was the cause of all problems, but because I just don't think he was a ever goibg to be a solution to the problems that could be helped.

 

[JohnU]

My concern is that the dugout staff will pin too much on the pitching and not enough on situational hitting. Pitching is predictable, situational hitting obviously requires several components to work together.

But if pitching is going to carry this team, it's clear that at least 4 or 5 other teams have strong rotations, including St. Louis and Pittsburgh. Hitting has to happen.

No telling what will happen in the next 40 days but I don't see a big upgrade. It's just not out there and to deal pitching to get hitting is a fool's errand.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Well its official. Walt Jocketty has said Hamilton will be your starting centerfielder on opening day. The question is for how long?

 

[JohnU]

Walt can say that because Price hasn't said that.
If Walt wants to manage the team, I think the worst of Reds baseball is in our immediate future.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You just never know. The Giants won 2 World Series lately with what might have been the 5th best AAA lineup. With any luck at all, the Reds should be able to put a lineup out there where the first 4-5 hitters make the opposition work a little. I'll be happy if they stop putting automatic outs in front of Votto, and hit a guy behind him that will hit a homer often enough to allow Votto more than 25 fat pitches a season. When the average catcher only throws out 1/4 of steal attempts, I'd like the 2nd highest SB guy to have more than 8 attempts all year too. Little things.

 

[chico ruiz]

the reds have a organizational problem. it's called misallocation of funds, and it has been brought to you by jocketty. you can kick and scream all you want to about dusty, but the biggest problem has been jocketty. baker's in-game moves frustrated many (me included), but take a real close look at the roster for 2013 and beyond. then, if you want to get nauseated, look at the rosters and minor league prospects of st. louis and pittsburgh. i'm like you guys. i love the reds. but, the truth is they aren't going to be very good next year. and god help them if they have any significant injuries, because there is no depth. zero.

i don't think walt jocketty is very good at his job in the year of our lord 2013. his negotiating skills seem to have diminished, if not atrophied. and i have some recent evidence to back up my claim. why was there such an urgency and premium put on signing ludwick? and why was broxton given a multi-year contract?


For 2014, Ludwick will make $7.5 mill. The remaining $4.5 mill is a buyout if the Reds turn down the $9 mill option for 2015. is there anybody on this board who thinks the reds will resign him for 2015? any way you slice it they're on the hook for 12 million. he also got a 2 million dollar signing bonus. if the reds want to trade this guy they'll have to eat a good portion of his salary. not going to happen. jocketty rolled the dice on this signing for a grand total of 15+ million american dollars. ladies and gentleman, ryan ludwick is the 2014 starting left fielder for the cincinnati reds. like it or not, a big part of the red potential success will ride with mr. ludwick. the reds are stuck with him. the reds aren't the yankees. they can't send a aj burnett to pittsburgh with a bag full of money. jonathan broxton. jonathan broxton? 21 million american dollars for 3 years. walt made this signing without chapman being ready to start. and, by the way, if price had really thought chapman was ready for the rotation, he would have started. bottom line; walt made 2 huge assumptions that have not worked out. the pieces had to fall together perfectly for this to produce a good team. a playoff winning caliber team. some of our more sick (and make no mistake, it is an illness) fellow contributors will say this was all dusty's fault. sure, dusty deserves some of the blame for no playoff advancement. but, this was not baker's doing alone. i wonder how jocketty sold this to castellini? i wonder further how he covered his butt on these disastrous signings? if you really believe a closer is a wasted roster spot, wait until broxton is closing, or trying to close, games in 2014 or 2015. i have no idea what walt could have been thinking. the reds already had a fastball / slider guy named hoover for a fraction of the price. not to mention the closers coming available at a fraction of the cost. rodney, benoit, etc etc. castellini should have made a clean sweep by firing both baker and jocketty. get a mgr/gm team that says, "screw it, let's run our opponents to death before they even get to votto and bruce. lets get gardner and nunez for phillips and a starter. we'll put hamilton and gardner at 1-2 and scare the crap out of every team we face. we'll steal 150+ bases and put on hit-n-runs until they're seeing cross-eyed, shaky neurotic, and out of breath. even the great y. molina will scream for assistance. why not? what did we have to lose?" the answer is: nothing. bailey will not be resigned for 2015. forget about the small ballpark crap. you play 81 games elsewhere. is this the game of baseball or home run derby? good lord, votto and bruce would see so many pitches that looked like softballs they might both have 100 rbi's. let's roll the dice on our homegrown players mesoraco, frazier, and cozart. let's put runners in motion before they even get on base. by god, we'll bring in dave martinez and turn GABP into a got-dam racetrack. we don't need more discipline. we just need to start playing 'baseball' again. singles are doubles for hamilton and gardner. take an extra base at every opportunity. actually, forget perceived opportunity, just take the extra base. take it. in fact, billy what are you doing standing there? run to the clubhouse and get me a cup of coffee and jujubes. brett, run up tell marty b. he doesn't have to shave his head ever again, and to screw himself. he thinks he knows more about baseball than he actually does. on the way back stop by his son's tv booth and punch him right in the mouth. then, get back here and chop one over the first baseman's head for a triple. billy, i said milk and sugar with that joe. back to ludwick again. no right handed bat with some semblance of power. sound familiar? only for the last decade and more. what do you think the chances of brandon being in the 4 hole again are? the ludwick and broxton contracts have hamstrung the organization. 22 million bucks worth for 2014, and you can count those beans any old way you want to. i think the game has passed walt by. now, there is only one team that can possibly entertain a trade for phillips. not a good negotiating position to be in for the reds. right? it's all about relationships. why do i get the feeling that jocketty isn't particularly well liked in and around mlb? who cares what the yankees leaked. it's your job to re-spin and negotiate walt. newsflash walt: this is how it works in 2013. get off your butt and get it done. it's not all about money. it's about putting together a team of good fitting parts. the 12 million dollar player named ludwick? you have to be kidding me. good work walt. keep your head down and continue making these deals. or stick your head in the sand and pretend we're still in the 1900's. or click your heels together and go all judy garland on us. or better yet, just retire. because, all i've seen the last few years is a gm getting out maneuvered and out negotiated by the rest of mlb. walt was too slow on the phillips for gardner + other players potential deal. walt has no leverage now to make any move concerning phillips. too slow.

losing arroyo is being treated as a afterthought by reds media and fans alike. i find that amazing. because, simply put - no arroyo. no 200 innings. no 15 wins. no guaranteed, without a doubt, every fifth day -come hell or high water- rubber armed starting pitcher on the reds roster. it doesn't seem like it, if you glance at arroyo's stats, but this is a huge loss. how do you replace that? cingrani? 200 innings? uh, yeah right. cueto, bailey, latos, and leake is what the reds can count on. if one of those guys goes down they are in serious trouble.


let me be fair to the organization: It is not even january yet, and the reds and walt say they are not done. But they are hinting at being done on relevant moves.
wasn't the walt promise that we have a big vision: restock the farm, regain financial equilibrium and then step on the gas pedal to relevance and contention.
implicit in making the promise is you know you are going to hate the costs. if that is unacceptable: 1) don’t make the promises or 2) get out of the baseball business.
the obstacles to delivering the goods did not sneak up on walt. he knew six years ago - at the outset of this process - free-agent prices were going to keep rising. which makes the backloaded ludwick deal even more preposterous. 21 million to broxton and a one year rental named choo were not very forward looking. these are the prices to sit at this particular casino — you don’t get to set the minimum at the blackjack tables or the left fielder market. at some point, this organization is going to have to rediscover its inner cincinnati reds — emphasis on cincinnati hard-nosed type baseball (frank robinson, pete rose, ron oester, ryan freel, etc.) coupled with a 100+ million dollar payroll. that's plenty of cash to put the right players together. jocketty simply has not done it. you ever seen those commercials saying no payments for 12 months? or the rent-a-center scam? eventually, you still have to pay. those payments for ludwick and broxton come due this year. roughly 20 million bucks worth.

 

[redsfan03]

^That is one GIANT paragraph...

I do agree that Walt's seat is getting hotter. I would think that if the Reds don't make the playoffs next year he could be gone. I may be wrong, but I think he only has a year left on his contract anyway.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm suprized Jocketty hasn't done more. I said when he fired Dusty, the rest was on himself, and he's fine very little. Not much he could go with Choo, or Arroyo if you look at the balance sheet, his age and the metrics of the remaining rotation members..Hamilton is the understandable first replacement choice, but I have always wondered what part of Walt's anatomy signed Ludwick to that fat deal.

Other than the Cardinals, who regrettably remain the high organizational bar for the Reds to strive for, the NL is largely offensively challenged. Maybe it's a sign of post-PED's, or just a cyclic phenomenon, but most lineups have holes. I believe Dusty is a big part of failure to achieve recent better performance, but that is ancient history now, and it's all about going forward. I believe to reach large goals, you have to have large expectations, AND have the goods to produce such results. It remains to be seen if we have the goods in 2014. This team hinges on pitching- they all do, and yes, there is pressure to produce from hitters that haven't been consistent producers... you think similar pressure isn't on any Pirates not named McCutcheon ?

Hamilton probably isn't going to be Rod Carew, but he's likely to be more than Drew Stubbs. Phillips, Votto and Bruce can just maintain and be fine. Ludwick and Frazier need to be better, and I'm never sure if that's a realistic hope. Cozart and Mesoraco are similar to their peers, and until the Reds get offense from the OF, I'll refrain from offensive criticism from SS and C.

The bullpen is fine, without Chapman, and better with him. Until some team wins a World Series without a LHSP more than once every ten years, I'd suggest the Reds find one though. To have a couple and not use them looks like ignorance or not trying to me.

Every team can improve, and making no changes in roster OR staff also looks like not trying. The Reds did NOT harm themselves by changing dugout staff, but the roster looks weaker. The Reds farm has a gap in talent at the upper levels, but the fact remains that it's unlikely the Reds would be better with any or all of the top prospects that have been traded in the last 3 years. I don't believe they've taken their new teams to the big dance yet either.

 

[JohnU]

Reds RH bats should produce about 100 home runs, total. That's just a number. They will also probably produce 200 doubles, which would be fine if a few hundred singles were included. None of those numbers tells us anything. They are just numbers.

OBP is a number, so are steals, walks, double plays, strikeouts ...

Situational hitting is a lot harder to define. Scoring 3 runs in a inning is situational, unless it's in the 8th and you're down 7-1 at the time. Then it's just a rally that came up short.

Get 3 runs in the first inning and the game is completely changed. The pitching staff and the defense take control of the whole process. Situational hitting is by definition, situational.

An old basketball coach once told me: Winning 29 out of 30 games is great, so long as you don't win the first 29.

So when I look at the Reds roster and wonder who is going to supply the offense, honestly, if it's just numbers, then the people who are likely to supply the numbers need to be better at it. Just sending guys to the plate, telling them to make contact -- hell, I could manage that team.

But please, stop giving away outs with ridiculous sac bunts by the No. 2 guy in the lineup. Not much here of any value, but it's musing. The Reds will be all right this year if they play better than they did part of last year.

90 wins is something you will take, most years.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I tend to believe people and teams like to do things they are good at, and try to do them more often. This team in the past anyway, appeared to believe the only way they could score was a 2 out hit or a homer. The exclusion of other ways to score led to a lot of droughts.

The Cardinals have lots of those 2 out hits and homers, but it doesn't stop them from throwing a couple of runs on the board in the first inning with a walk, a double and a couple of productive outs. Confidence comes from success. Scoring early is big...it does change the game, puts the opposition under more pressure and keeps your team playing to their game, instead of chasing theirs. It's also many times a bullpen saver.