Cautious Optimism, Not so Cautious Optimism, and the Kansas City Chiefs

[Fountain City Blues]

I am sometimes labeled as a sunshine pumper, and an eternal optimist- so be skeptical if you want. What I'll explain though is how this Chiefs squad in 2015 looks poised to cause serious damage. Here are the reasons I think the Chiefs can make a jump to be a legit contender. It's year 3 of the "DoReido" regime, and quite honestly my expectations was for this year to be the first year they start winning after 2012, but this team apparently is ahead of schedule. And the FO and coaching staff, has mostly gotten my backing.

• Year 3 of continuity with Reid and the rest of the coaching staff, and what that means historically
• Improved CB2 depth
• Return of DJ and DeVito; impact on run defense
• Takeaway regression; and why it isn't a very repeatable skill
• Special Teams Execution
• Improved WR's
• Year 2 of Kelce
• TTL, and what it means for the Chiefs.

HC/QB Continuity Since 2000
​

Many of these charts, among other datapoints, I will present are indeed from Head coach and quarterback continuity - The ever important third year - Arrowhead Pride , by Super_G.

In the first two years, under Reid, the Chiefs have averaged 10 wins. Teams in the 3rd year of HC/QB continuity average 9.74 wins. As this pertains to Reid, this was about the time with Donovan McNabb they made a run of NFC Title games, including a SB appearance in which they lost to the dynastic Patriots. So, the next logical step is to see what the odds are of making into the playoffs in year 3 of said continuity. And here is the chart for that.

A very solid looking graph if you are a Chiefs fan. The Broncos will be as stiff as any team in the NFL to take a division crown from, but a WC is very attainable- this team is after all averaging 10 wins going into its 3rd season of continuity. Here's how those playoff teams fared. And yes, there have been no SB losers thus far since 2000 from this specific sample.

Interestingly, 61.5% of teams with this kind of continuity did in fact win at least one playoff game. Many fans in the NFL take that for granted, but being starved of a playoff win for 20+ years, I would like to think we understand how difficult it can be to get those wins. From Lin Elliot, WD-40, to the implosion of 2013, it's always been something. Now, that's a nice couple of graphs and all, but that alone isn't elevating this team to real contender. So, I'll attempt to get into the nitty gritty as well.

CB2 Depth
​

Sean Smith was mostly lockdown on his side of the field, but CB2 was occasionally an issue. The list of CB2 starters was lengthy: Marcus Cooper, Ron Parker, Jamell Flemming, and Phillip Gaines. Steven Nelson and Marcus Peters were drafted, and given Peters was generally seen as the #1 CB in the draft prior to his outbursts, there's reason to be excited about his potential. Between Gaines, Peters, and Nelson, someone is taking hold of the CB2 job, and one of Gaines or Nelson likely will go to nickel. Given how much this team plays nickel, we really should see all of these guys quite a bit, and that's a lot more promising than seeing Marcus Cooper or Jamell Flemming out there. Depth is much deeper. This of course, was a team that was among the lead leaders in YPA against, so any upgrade at CB2 is a big, big deal.

The Return of DeVito and Johnson​

Run defense was middle of the pack by DVOA, but the ILB's were dreadful- just about every Chiefs fan will tell you how frustrating the run D from the ILB's was. While there's a lot of truth to the idea that nickel played a role in the woeful YPC allowed, but when you see stuff like this, you can see why even a more favorable review from DVOA is decidedly mediocre:

P.S. This and the Titans game killed a season

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Mauga straight up whiffed- badly. That was a theme for him and JMJ; you'll notice Poe got moved, which pretty much just says he is not god at NT. Kind of hard to blame Berry for trying to chase people with a gob of cancer in his chest, so... I'll give him a pass here. If nothing else, even after an achilles, Johnson can be relied upon to pick a gap- pick the right one, and attack it. Terrell Suggs is an example of an NFL player returning and providing serviceable production upon return. Given Johnson is replacing... replacement value, an upgrade is probably going to be noticeable here. Ramik Wilson and Alexander could get some time, but Johnson is the most important player right now.

Mike DeVito is a 3-4 DE run stuffer primarily, and is a cog you can really use well if you rotate him between Jaye Howard, et al. If he's right, he's not exactly useless is passrushing either. It's really unclear how effective he'll be after being a very valuable run stuffer in 2013, but it can't hurt to have him.

Why Takeaways will likely Regress
​

These guys will explain it much better than I can:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Guest Column: Turnovers and the Unpredictability of Defense

Now how that benefits the Chiefs is quite simple: The Chiefs were at the very bottom of the league, tied with the Jets, in takeaways. By sheer luck and variance, the Chiefs are due for significant positive regression. Now here's the kicker, giveaways are quite a bit more regular. Alex Smith has been among the league best in INT% for the past several years now. The Chiefs in general do not turn the ball over much. That's a very good sign as it pertains to winning the turnover battle. The fact the defense was 7th in PPD without the turnovers, and 2nd in PPG, would tend to imply the sky is the limit for this defense- and may be poised for an explosion into dominance with even league average takeaway rates, let alone sky high 2013 rates. Theoretically, anyways. That's all just wheelin' and dealin' analysis on my part, an amateur, but I find it interesting, anyways. Even if you don't buy this theory at all, the pass rush is top notch, the playmakers are there; there shouldn't be any reason to expect league worst takeaways again.

Special Teams
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Return Average: 28.0 2nd in the NFL

Punt Return Average: 12.1. 4th in the NFL

That right there screams explosive, and can quickly put the offense into a position where it can quickly get into FG range, if not score a TD.

Opp Punt Return average. 6.6. 6th in the NFL (T-4th in IN20)

Opp Kick Return average. 23.9. 18th in the NFL, probably the weakest aspect of the ST's unit.

Overall, it's a pretty solid unit, with the kick and punt returners looking like possible playmakers going into 2015.

WR's Over Replacement Value
​

The most curious stat of all for the Chiefs is probably not a lack of WR TD's, but instead they were 12th in points per drive with a bottom 5 OL, and the worst WR's I can really ever remember being on an NFL team. Seriously, Bowe might be the only guy who finds a job next year that entails "catching" the ball from last year's opening day lineup. It was that hysterically bad.

As to the PPD stat, hard to say if that's Smith, Reid, dumb luck, or some weird combination, but it IS there. So, it's worth mentioning. The Chiefs were 16th in PPG as well just for comparison's sake. This is the group which will need to step it up, along with the O-line.

First, let's visit Jeremy Maclin:

1.4 Drop %.

There was only four WR's I found that received over 80 receptions (#1 targets and beyond) and had a drop percentage of 1.5% or lower.

Emmanuel Sanders: No drops in 101 receptions.. um wow. Ok.
Jeremy Maclin: 1.4%
Golden Tate: 1.4%
Odell Beckham: 1.5%

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen at 77 receptions, 0.8%. This is in stark contrast to Bowe: 7.4% (actually pretty low for him) Then there's the obvious elephant in the room when comparing the WR's- one had over 1,300 yards, the other has been a #2 the past several years outside of 2010... and is much slower with age. I would say it's very safe to say Maclin is a good deal better than Bowe at this point in their careers. I strongly believe Maclin is a great fit for this WCO as a Z. Reliable, quick, and can get down the field in a hurry. Now, for everyone else.

Keep in mind with Conley he is replacing Junior Hemmingway/Frankie Hammond/AJ Jenkins/Donnie Avery. There's Avant if he isn't ready right away, but he'd have to be horrifyingly bad to be worse than those guys. So, with that in mind, it'll be hard to believe that Conley/Avant won't be an upgrade over those guys. It'll just be a question of how big. Here are two draftbreakdown videos I found for Conley. In the first one, he looks really sluggish, clumsy, and really, a J.A.G. 2nd Video shows some progress in that department, but it needs work to be NFL quality on a consistent basis. He can probably run a mean go route though. Also needs to work on beating press- as most young WR's need to.

Chris Conley | Draft Breakdown

He's a rookie, a raw one. So, it's completely out there as to what he actually does in the NFL, with an NFL QB, with an NFL surrounding cast, etc. Just for fun though:

Yellow is Conley. Ideal athlete for the X is there. Going to take some work to make him into a NFL receiver though it looks like. Getting an elite athlete like this at WR in the 3rd round is pretty rare. Even the guys like Coates and Perriman went as high as the 1st round. A 3rd round gamble seems prudent given the state of WR prior to the draft. It may take some time to get him acclimated to the Reid offense, but quite frankly, he's better than than half the WR's on the roster by default.

Albert Wilson is only 5'9," but he runs a high 4.3 low 4.4 time, and he was probably the best WR last year down the stretch. Not particularly an accomplishment, but something I guess. Albert Wilson grabbed 209 yards (3.5% drop rate) in the final 4 games of the season; also his only starts. He was shutout vs the Chargers, so that was disappointing. It's noteworthy that Chase Daniel, not Alex Smith, was starting that game vs the Chargers, however. Wilson managed to open up the offense just a tad drawing deep throws from Alex on multiple occasions. Including a connection with Oakland. Deep throws are always low percentage throws, and usually involve the grayest of calls from the refs, but it was progress just to see some attempts. Jason Avant even drew a 35+ attempt on a broken play vs the Cardinals. The sample is so small for Wilson that it's hard to say if he is for real, or just a flash in the pan. As with Conley though, the bar is so low, it's hard not to see an upgrade here. Just a question of if it will be marginal, or fairly significant.

If he is for real though, it would be a huge deal just to have a competent slot guy that can stretch the field when asked to do so. Like much of the WR corps, it's going to take some imagination to figure out what they're really going to do; mainly because it's a clean sweep from last year.

There's also DAT, but that's so out there in LF that I am going to save that for TC.

Travis Kelce's 1st Completely Healthy Year
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Travis Kelce did some very interesting and unusual things from the TE position. Take screens, lead TE's in YAC, 2nd in yards per route among TE's, and be a very solid blocking TE to boot. Now, here's the most curious thing about that- he was being eased in due to microfracture surgery in 2013; being on the field for less than 70% of snaps. Kelce put up 867 yards through 67 catches. He's more than likely the focal point of the passing game along with Maclin- so he should see plenty of playing time. Kelce looks to be the equivalent of Vernon Davis when Alex was the QB, so I have virtually no concern about Kelce's production on the field.

TTL, and Conclusion
​

Total talent level is often pretty subjective, and in the NFL, wins are just what you got in a 16 game sample- look at the 2010 Chargers for example. I'll make an attempt to quantify the 2014 TTL anyways, just for comparison purposes. Schedule usually makes a difference, but generally a strong point differential of 65 or above will generally predict a team with 10 wins; with some variance of 2 wins or so. The Chiefs of 2013 were at +72 with a stiff schedule, ahead of playoff teams in the Steelers, Panthers, Cardinals, Lions, and Bengals. With that in mind, this team 100% does have the talent to be a playoff team. And if PD implies anything, that can probably win a playoff game or two if they do get in- which is the most difficult obstacle to a season.

You can look at point differentials year to year with this 2014 NFL Regular Season Standings - National Football League if you want to investigate the same thing I did.

The 2015 team can very easily improve on that +72 10 win TTL team in my opinion, and if they avoid bad luck and injury may very well cause damage in the playoffs. Maybe that's just my sunshine pumper mindset to be an eternal optimist despite little success in the big picture, but it's better than being eternally grouchy I suppose.

Feel free to criticize or add if you wish. I guess I am just intrigued by the moves and roster this Chiefs team has. And impressed by the progress it has made since a pitiful 2012 season. And quite frankly, diving face first into textbooks and historical works can drive a person a little loopy after a while.

 

[MHSL82]

 

[MHSL82]

What is the ceiling for Kansas City Chiefs QB Alex Smith? - Arrowhead Pride

 

[Retroram52]

What I found absolutely optimistic is Bobby Bell when back and earned his Bachelor's degree from the University Minnesota, the school he was drafted from by the Chiefs, and graduated this month at the spry age of 74. Congratulations to a very class act!!

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The Chiefs of 2013 were at +72 with a stiff schedule, ahead of playoff teams in the Steelers, Panthers, Cardinals, Lions, and Bengals

Err, 2014- I can't claim to be the best editor in the world. But anyways, I made a preliminary search seeing if INT'able passes was a quantifiable thing, and here's what I found.



Now this of course isn't an attempt to say Alex Smith is elite or some such- I'd have him around 14th right now. In fact, the guy that made this is pretty critical, but It's useful information as it pertains to future giveaways for some of the more veteran QB's. For fun though, he actually took the time to determine if the INT was actually the QB's fault or not. Here's an example.



Also, wow, look at Bridgewater compared to Carr and Bortles. Surprised Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, and Colin Kaepernick were clustered next to each other. Jay Cutler next to Tom Brady? Well, that's going to raise a ton of questions for me. This is from what I can tell, an ongoing and evolving project, however. So, make of it what you will. It's interesting nonetheless though, so I'd take a look.

http://presnapreads.com/2015/05/28/the-interceptable-passes-project/

 

[MHSL82]

Pretty good read on how Reid gets his players to accomplish more by working to their strengths mostly and getting better at their weaknesses, rather than pushing his "system." That sounds so common sense, but I've seen square pegs trying to be forced into round holes many times by other coaches.

Entering year three, Chiefs coach Andy Reid has his quarterbacks’ trust

 

[MHSL82]

The Jeremy Maclin impact

 

[icefreeze57]

Hey, I'm an outsider but wanted to get your thoughts on Chris Conley for this season.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Hey, I'm an outsider but wanted to get your thoughts on Chris Conley for this season.

He's really raw from what I can tell. Route running is suspect, and is learning a pretty difficult offense for a WR. Has some really gifted physical traits to him, so there's potential which is why he was in the 3rd, not 6th. He's probably going to primarily be the X receiver when he sees snaps. He's probably going to need a year or two before expecting anything too crazy. He might get forced out there anyway with how thin and unproven WR is.

FWIW, he was catching passes from Aaron Murray at UGA, so I'd expect to see them try that a lot tonight.

 

[icefreeze57]

I'm asking mostly for the purposes of fantasy football. I'm doing my rookie draft, in the 4th round and I'm look to grab him. But only if you think he'll get action this year.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I'm asking mostly for the purposes of fantasy football. I'm doing my rookie draft, in the 4th round and I'm look to grab him. But only if you think he'll get action this year.

He'll likely get some action just because of how thin WR is (his competition is Jason Avant, Fred Williams, and Frankie Hammond Jr) but if you really need production right now, I'd wait a while. I'd have a hard time believing he gets it right away.

Not fantasy friendly.

 

[icefreeze57]

thanks for the advice. Good luck tonight, let's hope for no injuries on either side!

 

[randymon]

I'm asking mostly for the purposes of fantasy football. I'm doing my rookie draft, in the 4th round and I'm look to grab him. But only if you think he'll get action this year.

I would stay away from any Chief not named Charles,Kelce or your fg kicker. Seriously.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

@ChiefsLakers67

Did you see this on Rotoworld? I thought you'd get a kick out of this:

Dwayne Bowe played into the third quarter of Thursday's preseason finale, catching 1-of-2 targets for eight yards.

The grab was Bowe's lone catch of the summer. Despite the fact that Bowe missed Cleveland's first two preseason games with a hamstring injury, it's extremely bizarre for a nine-year veteran — one who received $9.5 million guaranteed in March — to play into the third quarter of the final preseason game. It lends some credence to the scuttlebutt that Bowe's roster is in danger, though Browns in-house analyst Nathan Zegura has insisted that's not the case. What is the case is that Bowe isn't going to be a fantasy option catching passes from Josh McCown.

 

[Black Adam]

@ChiefsLakers67

Did you see this on Rotoworld? I thought you'd get a kick out of this:

Dwayne Bowe played into the third quarter of Thursday's preseason finale, catching 1-of-2 targets for eight yards.

lol first I've seen of this, but thanks for bringing it to my attention...

and btw, doesn't surprise me in the slightest. this cat couldn't catch pneumonia in a blizzard...

 

[MHSL82]

Chiefs are third in the league with 16 pass plays that went 40 or more yards, and third in pass plays that went more than 20 yards, with 63.

Now, these aren't air yards, but this is what I'd want our offense to do, however we'd get it. But if I were you, I would like better red zone and third down conversions.

Pretty good article: Alex Smith is boring by design, and the Chiefs’ quarterback’s formula can win in playoffs