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2019 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds
Looks like it projects them for mid-80s in the win column (based on WAR).
Looks like it projects them for mid-80s in the win column (based on WAR).
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I like the changes in the coaching staff long term and players for this season. But the amount of one year team control acquisitions doesn't paint a Rosy Red picture for 2020. It has a July fire sale feel to it.
I'm not sure what to expect in 2019. I think at best high 90's at worst low 70's. Then you have the injury factor which can change everything. I don't know about Senzel I'd like to see him get a full year in AAA, injury free, and he is still very young
The Super 2 stuff will keep Senzel in the minors for a few weeks, but the Reds have every intention of calling him and putting him in CF.I don't think he needs a full year in AAA. He more than held his own in AAA last year, hitting .310/.378/.509 in 193 PA. I don't think he has much to prove other than health, but if he continues to hit then I don't see any reason not to bring him up. Steamer and ZiPS both project him to be an above average hitter.
I think the 79 up to about 83 is what the projections are. What isn't called into question is the plan after that. Finding decent starters as low-hanging fruit was pretty tough. There's a larger FA market next year, which will provide a lot of cutesy writing by the MLB scribes.God, I hate to say it, but saying this pitching staff is improved is relative to how bad it was last year. The rest of the NLC sure didn't get worse, and arguably, neither did the rest of the NL.
They haven't won 70 + games in what, 4- 5 years ? They won 67 games last year...If they improve 10-12 games this year, that would be a major improvement. 20 more wins might not get them to the playoffs, and 20 win improvements are RARE in MLB, folks.
Gray, Wood, Castillo, Roark and DeSclafani aren't going to win 15-17 games each, folks. They will have good years if they win 60 combined, and this bullpen isn't winning another 25-30. 85 wins is no lock to make a one game playoff, but that's a 18 win improvement over last year...I HOPE I'm wrong, but I think that's impossible even if those 5 SP ALL had career years.
I'll take the Reds to win 79 games, and finish 4th in the NLC this year. That's a dozen wins better than last year.
I'm not sure what to expect in 2019. I think at best high 90's at worst low 70's. Then you have the injury factor which can change everything. I don't know about Senzel I'd like to see him get a full year in AAA, injury free, and he is still very young
If they hit their projection of 80-81 and play 10 percent overachieving, they can get to 90. That might make a wild card game.I didn't mean to say high 90's I meant to say high 80's at best. I am way to negative to think the Reds will be that good. Especially when they are playing in the central division,