Who is Pablo really?

[nateistheshi]

Most of us probably didn't expect a .330+ average this year, but expecting 25+ homeruns from him was perfectly realistic. He has fallen far short in each of those categories, farther than most people could have foreseen of him. He's had a rough year emotionally off the field as well, there's the divorce, there's the growing pains of him adjusting to not playing everyday, and then there was the fire near his mom's house.

I read something interesting from Baggs, that I'm really hoping will fix the Panda:


"Sandoval said he reviewed video with hitting coach Hensley 'Bam Bam' Meulens and went back to a more open stance that worked for him last season. He’s planning to use it from both sides of the plate.

'I’ve changed,' he said. 'I’m more patient. I’m seeing the ball really well. I try to help the team.'

I have a hunch that Sandoval will be back in the lineup tomorrow, even if Freddy Sanchez returns. The upside is just too great if the Panda looks like he’s got his Kung-Fu grip back.

My beat colleague, Henry Schulman, drew some laughs in the postgame session when he told Bochy he had a three-part question about Sandoval. The first part: Would he have played if Sanchez were healthy?

'The first one I’m not going to answer … ' Bochy said, to more laughs.

The next two parts: Did Bochy see better swings when Sandoval got a few hits off the bench on the last road trip, and what would it mean to get him squared away?

'Yeah, you could see Pablo relaxing a little more,' Bochy said. 'He came off the bench with a couple hits and he slowed things down. I’m happy for Pablo. We need him. He can flat-out hit. It’d be so important if Pablo can stay within himself and contribute to this offense.

'Sometimes it’s good for a player to back off and get a mental break and realize you’ve been pressing. Hopefully that’s what you get with Pablo.' "


So Bam-Bam helped him find a difference in his swing between this season and the last, and now it looks like (or at least he's claiming) Bochy wants to play him as much as possible.

By no means do I expect him to return to the same form as he was in last year, but if he can get hot entering the playoffs and maybe be 80% of the player he used to be, then we actually would have an above average lineup of:
Torres
Sanchez
Huff
Burrell
Posey (yes I moved him out of the cleanup spot, he's been pressing lately and is under an enormous amount of pressure to produce.)
Sandoval
Guillen
Uribe

So my question to all of you is, how likely is it that Pablo starts producing like he was expected to? And what can we expect of him next year?

 

[SF11704]

I'm sorry to say this - but I think what we see now is what we have. I'd love to see the Panda return to his 2009 form but there seems to be so much that has changed. I can see having an off year in average, but it is the power outage that concerns me. I personally feel that the problem is a combination of his weight and his ego.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm sorry to say this - but I think what we see now is what we have. I'd love to see the Panda return to his 2009 form but there seems to be so much that has changed. I can see having an off year in average, but it is the power outage that concerns me. I personally feel that the problem is a combination of his weight and his ego.

Gotta agree here. It's so tantalizing to think you can just tweak this and watch this film and suddenly, hey, it's 2009 Panda. But the league knows he'll chase pitches around his eyes, and he had all year to adjust, and couldn't.

He's got enough talent to be a contributor, a 7 hitter doing maybe .265/.330/
.430 with 15 HRs, play decent 3B, bascially a Pedro Feliz (I keep harping on it but to me they are equally valuable players). But 2009 is probably not possible.

One of two things can happen here: I could be wrong, and would love that, or we could trade him for something we really need like a SS, to a team that thinks THEY can fix it.

 

[gp956]

My rule of thumb is you don't really know who a guy is until after 1500 AB.

 

[gp956]

Gotta agree here. It's so tantalizing to think you can just tweak this and watch this film and suddenly, hey, it's 2009 Panda. But the league knows he'll chase pitches around his eyes, and he had all year to adjust, and couldn't.

He's got enough talent to be a contributor, a 7 hitter doing maybe .265/.330/
.430 with 15 HRs, play decent 3B, bascially a Pedro Feliz (I keep harping on it but to me they are equally valuable players). But 2009 is probably not possible.

One of two things can happen here: I could be wrong, and would love that, or we could trade him for something we really need like a SS, to a team that thinks THEY can fix it.

I really disagree with this. I charted Pablo's batting average across multiple zones last year, very much like this Ted Williams chart:

except with pablo I had to extend the chart beyond one balls width off the plate, because Pablo's batting average was pretty consistently over .300 until the pitch was farther out than that. The bottom line, for me, is that it's not what the pitchers are doing to him - it's what Pablo has done to himself - either mentally of physically (his off-season lasik surgery perhaps).

 

[nateistheshi]

Personally, I think that he's had off the field problems all season. This has caused him to mess up his mechanics and fail to recognize patterns, for instance in every 2 strike count for about a 6 week period we all knew that a high fastball was coming and we all knew that he would chase it. Where his weight affects him most I think is in the field, not in the batter's box, hence the ever decreasing range. Now that his off the field issues are supposedly resolved, he hasn't bounced back yet, so either he corrects his mechanics and turns it around (I don't think he'll ever hit .330 or even close to it again) or we see that this guy is a total headcase without any discipline at all.
Msg I'd love for him to be that role player, because that is the safer route with him. If we hold onto him, he's either going to get his shit together and see all the things that everybody around him can see, or he's going to keep plummeting into mediocrity. I don't even see a floor for how low he can drop, just to give you an idea of how mentally weak I think he is. I just hope that he can put together a decent stretch to help the Giants in the playoffs and to not hurt his trade value anymore than he already has.

 

[nateistheshi]

I really disagree with this. I charted Pablo's batting average across multiple zones last year, very much like this Ted Williams chart:

except with pablo I had to extend the chart beyond one balls width off the plate, because Pablo's batting average was pretty consistently over .300 until the pitch was farther out than that. The bottom line, for me, is that it's not what the pitchers are doing to him - it's what Pablo has done to himself - either mentally of physically (his off-season lasik surgery perhaps).

Bringing up the lasik surgery is an excellent point GP. Does that chart vary significantly if you look at his lefty/righty splits?

 

[gp956]

Personally, I think that he's had off the field problems all season. This has caused him to mess up his mechanics and fail to recognize patterns, for instance in every 2 strike count for about a 6 week period we all knew that a high fastball was coming and we all knew that he would chase it. Where his weight affects him most I think is in the field, not in the batter's box, hence the ever decreasing range. Now that his off the field issues are supposedly resolved, he hasn't bounced back yet, so either he corrects his mechanics and turns it around (I don't think he'll ever hit .330 or even close to it again) or we see that this guy is a total headcase without any discipline at all.
Msg I'd love for him to be that role player, because that is the safer route with him. If we hold onto him, he's either going to get his shit together and see all the things that everybody around him can see, or he's going to keep plummeting into mediocrity. I don't even see a floor for how low he can drop, just to give you an idea of how mentally weak I think he is. I just hope that he can put together a decent stretch to help the Giants in the playoffs and to not hurt his trade value anymore than he already has.

Yeah, his failure to recognize patters was evident last year. Kruk said it might actually help - because he could not be set up. But at least one instance where it really hurt was a late season loss to Jimenez and the Rox, where Pablo lined out on a nasty 3-2 curve that started at his eyes and ended up at the dirt - how he managed to square that up is beyond my comprehension. But overriding that amazing ability to square up anything thrown, was the failure to recognize that Jimenez was going to walk him rather than throw anything in the zone. Pablo's just not a thinker.

 

[gp956]

Bringing up the lasik surgery is an excellent point GP. Does that chart vary significantly if you look at his lefty/righty splits?

As I recall, there was good symmetry between the splits. I lost the chart in an unfortunate hosing of my hard drive and backups at the beginning of the year. I'm still recovering (rewriting) a ton of programs/scripts and haven't gotten around to any baseball related stuff.

But at the end of the year, I want to recreate the original chart and compare it to a chart of this year.

 

[SF11704]

Throughout my years as a fan I've seen a few very good bad ball hitters. My personal choice would be Tony Gywnn. He was just amazing. I also remember Yogi Berra, Clemente and of course Vlad. All big time players. The thing I think that they had in common was exceptional hand and eye coordination coupled with great bat speed. This is where I think Panda has lost quite a bit because of his weight. I just don't believe that he can get the bat through the zone quick enough to reach some of these pitches. I think his hand and eye coordination is probably OK even with the surgery. I think his weight is restricting the speed of his swing. He's always swung at stuff all over the place. It just seems to me he's not catching up to it any longer.

 

[nateistheshi]

Throughout my years as a fan I've seen a few very good bad ball hitters. My personal choice would be Tony Gywnn. He was just amazing. I also remember Yogi Berra, Clemente and of course Vlad. All big time players. The thing I think that they had in common was exceptional hand and eye coordination coupled with great bat speed. This is where I think Panda has lost quite a bit because of his weight. I just don't believe that he can get the bat through the zone quick enough to reach some of these pitches. I think his hand and eye coordination is probably OK even with the surgery. I think his weight is restricting the speed of his swing. He's always swung at stuff all over the place. It just seems to me he's not catching up to it any longer.

There it is, just the Giants apparently haven't even been able to figure out if it's mental or physical, let alone home in on exactly what the problem is. I don't think the organization is capable of turning around a case like Pablo where he likely has many different factors leading up to the huge drop off he's seen, that's why in my eyes he's perfect trade bait.

 

[tzill]

My rule of thumb is you don't really know who a guy is until after 1500 AB.

That's a basic rule for scouts as well. I'm hopeful that Panda really gets serious this offseason, loses weight, and returns to the .300 25HR guy that he can be.

 

[nateistheshi]

That's a basic rule for scouts as well. I'm hopeful that Panda really gets serious this offseason, loses weight, and returns to the .300 25HR guy that he can be.

I hope so as well tzill, but at this point I'm not very optimistic about him. The Giants office should know by now that they sell the most Panda hats when he's playing and he can only play when he's producing, so they need to hurry up and diagnose him or try to trade him. I wonder if the Mets would swap David Wright for Panda and a decent but not great minor league prospect, like Francisco Peguero maybe.

 

[ElJimador]

I really disagree with this. I charted Pablo's batting average across multiple zones last year, very much like this Ted Williams chart:

except with pablo I had to extend the chart beyond one balls width off the plate, because Pablo's batting average was pretty consistently over .300 until the pitch was farther out than that. The bottom line, for me, is that it's not what the pitchers are doing to him - it's what Pablo has done to himself - either mentally of physically (his off-season lasik surgery perhaps).

I did my own research project at the end of last year using pitchf/x data to calculate Sandoval's BA and SLG on pitches inside the zone vs. outside. I'd have to dig to find the exact results but I clearly remember that Sandoval hit and slugged just over .300/.500 on pitches out of the zone. I also recall he had close to the same amount of ABs decided on pitches inside and outside the zone though I can't remember which one was the larger sample (outside, I think).

Without making a similar study this year and just based on my own observation I don't think Sandoval's struggles have anything to do with his plate discipline being any worse than it was last year. He was swinging at everything last year too and odds are he'll never change in that regard. Which isn't going to help him but is not really the problem either.

I also don't think it's his weight. Not that it would hurt him to get in better shape, of course. But he doesn't look to me to be any fatter than he was last year. I just think we overlooked it more (or found it endearing) when he was pounding the ball. Anyway, I don't think that's it either.

I think the problem is between his ears. When he suddenly lost his mechanics in May it was his first slump as a big leager and really the first adversity he'd faced since anything was expected of him as a ballplayer. Then he became overanxious and started lunging at evertything, which just made it worse. Now he's had hints from time to time that he's found his swing and is coming out of it. August especially when his slash line was about the same as it was last season. But his confidence is so shot that as soon as he has a couple bad games he loses it again.

What Pablo needs is to get tougher mentally and while I wouldn't put it past him I don't know any easy fix for that either. For the rest of this season, however far the Giants can go, it's a crap shoot what you're going to get from him. More likely he'll be too anxious and wind up back on the bench by the time the playoffs even start. But I also wouldn't put it past him to come up big if he does start. He's still a very talented, natural hitter and in the playoff glare when everyone else has a bit of the jitters too (including the opposing pitcher) maybe it evens out and that talent comes out on top. If so it could do wonders for his confidence going into next season. The alternative I don't really want to consider so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[gp956]

I did my own research project at the end of last year using pitchf/x data to calculate Sandoval's BA and SLG on pitches inside the zone vs. outside. I'd have to dig to find the exact results but I clearly remember that Sandoval hit and slugged just over .300/.500 on pitches out of the zone. I also recall he had close to the same amount of ABs decided on pitches inside and outside the zone though I can't remember which one was the larger sample (outside, I think).

Without making a similar study this year and just based on my own observation I don't think Sandoval's struggles have anything to do with his plate discipline being any worse than it was last year. He was swinging at everything last year too and odds are he'll never change in that regard. Which isn't going to help him but is not really the problem either.

I also don't think it's his weight. Not that it would hurt him to get in better shape, of course. But he doesn't look to me to be any fatter than he was last year. I just think we overlooked it more (or found it endearing) when he was pounding the ball. Anyway, I don't think that's it either.

I think the problem is between his ears. When he suddenly lost his mechanics in May it was his first slump as a big leager and really the first adversity he'd faced since anything was expected of him as a ballplayer. Then he became overanxious and started lunging at evertything, which just made it worse. Now he's had hints from time to time that he's found his swing and is coming out of it. August especially when his slash line was about the same as it was last season. But his confidence is so shot that as soon as he has a couple bad games he loses it again.

What Pablo needs is to get tougher mentally and while I wouldn't put it past him I don't know any easy fix for that either. For the rest of this season, however far the Giants can go, it's a crap shoot what you're going to get from him. More likely he'll be too anxious and wind up back on the bench by the time the playoffs even start. But I also wouldn't put it past him to come up big if he does start. He's still a very talented, natural hitter and in the playoff glare when everyone else has a bit of the jitters too (including the opposing pitcher) maybe it evens out and that talent comes out on top. If so it could do wonders for his confidence going into next season. The alternative I don't really want to consider so I'll just leave it at that.

Excellent post.

About the only thing that I can think of that might have been been different in the way pitchers were working him - at least early on - was they were throwing him more off speed pitches. That was just a feeling i had when the slump first started - but as the slump continued it was pretty evident that he wasn't squaring up much, and swinging through a lot of fastballs in the zone (and the latter hardly ever occurred last year).

I'll probably break that down in the off-season.


edit: As for the mental side of the game. I've always felt that talent trumps mental toughness, but where mental toughness plays a huge roll is in doing the day to day work. The endless drills necessary to hone your craft. I'm not sure where Pablo sits with that.