The season has started

[JohnU]

If this season continues like the way it has. Price will be gone before the end of the month. It's not so much his fault, but that's the way crap flows.

The Reds had 13 hit last night, but only 3 runs. If it wasn't for Gallardo, we would be talking about that.

I think there is a lot of teams losing money, because of starting the season early. They was not many fans there last night despite how well the Pirates are playing right now.

Weather has been murder on the contractors who run the in-park vending, for sure.

As for the Reds, I have seen them play like this before and snapped out of it in brief bursts. In the past, they lacked the talent to endure it. Looking at the starting pitchers, I am not going to be too hard on them for trying to throw in this weather. Yes, the 13 hits the Reds got suggested the Pittsburgh pitchers weren't exactly carving them up either. It's a matter of them hitting' where they ain't and that's not always a matter of purpose.

The lineup is struggling to get situational hits and the teams that win somehow can count more of them. It's sometimes luck, sometimes just freaky matchups (luck). Castillo is not the problem, and neither is Bailey. Romano, Mahle, Garrett, and Iggy are all very good pitchers. We will see a lot of sunshine there barring the inevitable injuries.

Back to the rest of the roster. The bench has been good enough, better than a cheap market team ought to have. It's a cheap bench.

But is it practical to back up the truck on the bullpen again? Gallardo has an MLB contract, somehow. Quack has experience. Peralta is unpredictable but not terrible if you like a Loogy on staff. Hughes hasn't had an opportunity. He will be OK, I think.

Injured guys again put us on the edge of the cliff. Geez, is getting "somebody else" any better? I know in 2013, the Reds were faced with upgrading in LF and in pitching but the decision was, after Cueto and Ludwick came back, they were up to speed. So they let Marlon Byrd get away. Marlon is a cheater. The 2013 season went to hell in one weekend. I don't know if this is a comparable topic, but it's where the team appears to be sitting again -- keep what you have and wait, or act now and wonder. It's hard to DFA a pitcher who might be a week from getting his stuff together.

But I'd punt on Disco ... and give Finnegan another month.

Right now, only one of them can make this rotation and it's up to Cody Reed right now to make his case. I don't like those odds.

 

[chico ruiz]

interesting discussions. excellent posts by all. wish it were easier to draw baseball-centric posts out of 1507 like his last one. nice post #85 h-n-r. you articulated precisely what i was getting at. btw, i have a difficult time trusting anything chris welsh says. i don't want to completely dismiss him, because he was a player. put it this way: he often seems unprepared and under-researched.

i don't find my ted williams / science of hitting post contentious at all. i'm simply suggesting, don't be too hasty to guffaw or pigeonhole data . a lot of it is numbers integration w/ physics. however, i know what your saying johnny about some of the mlb network fellas. it gets irritating, and is tonally condescending, when guys are throwing numbers around without explaining the real world physically practical application.

i think it's the type of application somebody comes to on their own, if they're interested in it, and shouldn't necessarily be talking head broadcast. it took me a good long while to really understand spin rate. i understood the number of revolutions part. i wanted to know how it could be applied practically to a pitcher's improvement on the mound. a friend of mine explained release spin rate to me applied to a 4 seam fastball and how that could help a pitcher get even more upward trajectory movement. h-n-r pointed to stephenson's slider in a earlier post. that pitch is a big part of what made him successful at the tail end of the 2017 season. it's important for him to repeat that pitch, because it is one of his good secondary pitches. whatever tool is available for him to attain that is valuable.

btw, it's gotten way beyond the radar speed gun. they use doppler and some other devices that slip my mind at the moment. it's all about getting some kind of advantage. if a pitcher can be helped by a 2% - 5% margin, that could conceivably be the difference in being a division champion or a wild card on a good team. there must be something to it if every mlb team has a functioning department dedicated to it's incorporation and advancement within development and instruction.

anybody can understand how being able to measure the revolutions of the ball every foot, from release to catch or contact, is a valuable tool. but, from my pov this has to be used in conjunction with all the other sub departments -mentioned in previous posts ad nauseam- for it to be successful. that means having a lot of open minded smart people in your organization. i'm a systems guy who believes you can't have too much emphasis on any one thing for too long. you tend to lose sight of the bigger picture if you rely too heavily on tech, or any one thing. as johnny points out, it's still a human playing the game (for now), with utilitarian lust. see the ball. hit the ball. however, if you completely ignore data, you do so at your own peril, because it's becoming a bigger and bigger part of the game, in many facets, all the time. things are changing at a much more accelerated pace. i just want to try and understand enough of the nomenclature to be in the same ballpark, and maybe i'll learn something. it's mostly my nature to be curious. if i like something, or a subject, i want to know as much about it as i can. i guess that's what bugs me about chris welsh. there are times when he sounds uninformed in a moldy pedantic 1988 way.

 

[JohnU]

I think it's interesting that most data suggest that bat speed has a huge impact on the hitter's ability to put the ball in play. The best hitter in recent Reds history (Votto) chokes up on his bat an inch. Bat speed.

The hitter who makes the least amount of effective contact (Hamilton) does not choke up. Frequently overmatched.

Doesn't seem like it takes a computer to evaluate the outcomes of both approaches.

Using data to get an advantage is, to me, three-fold.
It's first identifying the data that is pertinent to you.
After that, adapting that data to the real world.
Following would be to turn a value into an instinctive approach. Hit 8 line drives that get caught and you have to remind yourself that you hit 8 line drives.

The fourth thing, less predictable, is creating the sort of ballplayer who can actually succeed in an advanced world. The pitchers have already outgrown the model. Hitters still are limited by the size of the bat and by the ever-changing strike zone that is still manipulated by umpires. Is it possible to teach young players how to quicken their bat? What sort of weight training is required?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Nice come from behind win. Romano could have caved after things didn't go his way early, but he hung in there and put up some zeroes. The bullpen followed suit and gave the offense a chance to play catchup.

Scooter and Duvall had rough games, but some signs other guys are coming around. Winker, Suarez , and Votto were 6-10 with three walks and a HBP. Peraza and Barnhart had a couple knocks and scored two runs each.

The Quacker had a scoreless inning, but I think he'll be a mixed bag for the most part. Wandy Peralta was tough with all three pitches working. He's looked good in his early outings after struggling a bit in Arizona. Iglesias was Iglesias.

 

[eburg5000]

I agree It was a nice win and it was needed. And the 1st 3 hitters in the lineup drove in all 7 runs.

I was just wondering. What was all that unnecessary annoying wooing or screaming all through the game. I thought they only did that in Cincinnati, but I guess not. I don't get it. or like it. I can see myself going to a game and someone sitting behind me screaming all through the game. Not something I would want to have to suffer through....My age is showing.

Lets hope Mahle can have a good game and the Reds can get a split today. A split here would make this dreary start of the season look much better.

 

[JohnU]

I agree It was a nice win and it was needed. And the 1st 3 hitters in the lineup drove in all 7 runs.

I was just wondering. What was all that unnecessary annoying wooing or screaming all through the game. I thought they only did that in Cincinnati, but I guess not. I don't get it. or like it. I can see myself going to a game and someone sitting behind me screaming all through the game. Not something I would want to have to suffer through....My age is showing.

Lets hope Mahle can have a good game and the Reds can get a split today. A split here would make this dreary start of the season look much better.

They have evidently stopped wooing in Cincy. Not sure if it just stopped being fun or whether the ushers put it down. Either way, it's quite annoying. I think the idea started in Pissburgh. Not sure why but somebody claimed they started it in Cincy on a bark in the park night. I wish the fans would clamp down on the abusers.

I watched the game until it was tied and decided to switch to an old movie to protect my sanity. The highlights were a home run by Suarez.

 

[eburg5000]

I watched the game until it was tied and decided to switch to an old movie to protect my sanity. The highlights were a home run by Suarez.

Sometimes I just record it, and watch the parts that are interesting. Then sometime I will watch all of it. just depends on what I have to do. I at least try to record enough that I can fast forward through the commercials

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's been a few local stories written on the "Woo".
They say it originated in Pittsburgh years ago. Makes sense, Pittsburgh fans and annoying seem synonymous to me.

Had the misfortune of sitting next to the local fool that calls himself the Wooo Guy a couple years ago. He talks as if he's a celebrity, but I thought he was just another synonym.

 

[JohnU]

People who do annoying things over and over again long ago lost the sense that it's annoying. I would probably like to spend a whole year sitting in front of the moron who beats the drum at Cleveland, and stand up and face him, waving a red towel.

 

[eburg5000]

Suarez drives in 6 runs on Saturday to beat the Pirates, Today he is hit by a pitch and goes on the DL. ..Like this season hasn't been bad enough.

 

[eburg5000]

One hit, two walks and hmm a hit batter. So much for the split, I was hoping for.

Peraza had a decent series. I think he had 5 hits, None today. It wouldn't have mattered today, but putting Peraza the pitcher and Hamilton all three together in the lineup doesn't seem to me like a good idea. But I'm not sure how you would bat them.

Oh Well on the Philadelphia

 

[JohnU]

One hit, two walks and hmm a hit batter. So much for the split, I was hoping for.

Peraza had a decent series. I think he had 5 hits, None today. It wouldn't have mattered today, but putting Peraza the pitcher and Hamilton all three together in the lineup doesn't seem to me like a good idea. But I'm not sure how you would bat them.

Oh Well on the Philadelphia

Mahle got the hit.

 

[JohnU]

Snow showers Monday night in Philly.

 

[Ojb81]

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Jameson Taillon looked the way you'd expect the #2 overall 2010 pick to look. Didn't look like the same guy the Reds beat up on last season. I don't know that any of the current Reds young starters posess the raw talent he does, but it shows the difference learning through experience can make for young SP.

You know it may not be a good day for your SP when the game begins with a 13 pitch walk. Mahle struggled, but hung in there through 4 innings. The wheels fell off the wagon in the 5th. Overall he was never able to gain confidence and pitched on the low end of his velocity range. It's a process.

Tough break for Suarez figuratively and literally.

 

[eburg5000]

I figure because it was his throwing hand. He will be out at least 2 months.

I wonder if they will bring Senzel up to replace him. If they do and he plays well. Who's out when Suarez comes back.

They were talking yesterday about Senzel playing 2nd base in triple A, when in spring training he played a lot at short stop. I think the reason is the Reds management isn't planning on scooter being with the Reds in the future, Not saying that when Suarez comes back Scooter will be benched, just that I don't think Scooter is in the long range plans

 

[JohnU]

I think they go with Henny Penny at 3B for awhile, still inside that player-control bracket on Senzel. Obviously the Goose moves up a peg.

This is one of the interesting reasons guys like Ben Revere ought to stay with the teams they signed with unless they get an MLB contract after ST. Cincy will call somebody and it's likely going to be a bench bat at the moment. Revere could have been that guy instead of somebody foraging for a contract in Salt Lake City.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think Alex Blandino will get the callup. He's already on the 40 man.

I never heard anyone heap any praise on Senzel's play at SS. I think they have pulled the plug on that experiment. I agree Scooter isn't in the longterm plan, but if a guy projects to hit like Senzel and could play SS he'd be there. I don't think he's playing 2ND due to Peraza blocking his path. If the Reds thought he could play SS I think he be playing there in AAA.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

We may see the club go with an extra BP arm if the SP continues to struggle through 5 innings. Zack Weiss maybe. Guys like Blandino and Weiss have options and can yo-yo on the Louisville shuttle as needed.

 

[JohnU]

I remain a little higher on Scooter than others are. I think the guy projects to have good weeks and he seems to rise up when the offense needs it. That's an eyeball test, to be sure, but a bit of that has to be part of the process. He's not going to kill the Reds at 2B and he's not old yet. He's not Phillips but he's better there than he appears.

Peraza needs to stop worrying about being in the lineup and calm the fuck down. His SS is so far pretty ordinary and that's not helping him. He isn't on base so he can't run. Hamilton hasn't been running either.

As for a callup, it's probably contingent on how Cody Reed shows -- if they play in Philly tonight. They may give him 2 starts but I'd think the leash isn't too long. It's clear Disco the Duck and Finnegan aren't inclined to play before mid-May, so the pitching roster will get a lot of tinkering. We still have Vanimal in the minors and Kyle Crockett. Weiss appears to be a favorite. The Gallardo albatross is worrisome.

I would settle for some fundamental baseball right now. Tootblans are murder. Lnowing how to play the wall is a learned experience but backing up should be automatic. It looks like a slow pitch team in the outfield.

The other problem here is lineup construction. Penny would hit no higher than 7th. Goose could hit as high as 5th. So a batting order with those guys lower down, who hits 2nd? If it's Peraza, it might as well be Billy. I can see a few more shutouts. Suarez is no No. 2 hitter anyway, but this team has suffered in that spot for 8 years. Maybe Penny does move up to the 2 spot, which means he should probably have been in the lineup in the first place.

I don't see Senzel coming up. It's not going to make that big of a difference to the team or to him if he stays in AAA until late May, but maybe if somebody else gets hurt, that might change.