SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[JohnU]

Losing isn't a prerequisite to winning, folks. It's quite the contrary- winning is a result of superior process, and losing is evidence of sustained ineptitude.

I need to frame this.

 

[JohnU]

I think, reading these well-thought-out comments, we might want to come to a consensus somehow on what constitutes sustained success in MLB. With notable exceptions, the window of opportunity on any given MLB roster is probably 3 years.

The trick is to keep upgrading the roster. The problem with that is, teams are signing their top players to long contracts, and free agency costs the acquiring team. That among other things would suggest that ... say, the Royals, will trend downward in another 2 years unless they can upgrade. If they can't do it with current available talent, through trades or free agency, they have to do the same thing the Reds are trying to do. KC has been there, done that. It took 30 years.

I suppose there are a billion nuances to that, many of which have been discussed (ie contracts) ... but all but a select few franchises have trouble sustaining success. Even LA had to buy a winner. If I look at the teams from 10 years ago forward that were pennant or divisional winners, most of them have done some serious skidding.

Some of them have recovered as part of the trending back upward. At least one -- Boston -- has been more like a ping pong ball than a baseball. So has Texas.

Even Colorado won a pennant!

I suppose the point to all this ... can the Reds put together a roster that can win the long season? That's how St. Louis does it and how the Pirates are learning to do that. The Brewers never did learn it. Time will tell on the Cubs and the Mets. Atlanta once had the process down pat. The Giants seem to have a clue.

 

[JohnU]

Jake Cave now getting a look in CF as our Rule 5 wonder boy.
Cave can't hit.
The problem with the CF corps is that it is a mirror image of the CF corps we've seen (Choo a slight exception) since 2007.
Small ball is NOT a game played with a single, two bunts and a wild pitch. It's possible to actually score a lot of runs playing small ball.
But you can't do it when your only good hitter leads the world in walks and the rest of the lineup is hitting .229 with that many strikeouts apiece.
You can win at small ball by scoring 9 runs a game.
But small ball is not a good strategy in the big leagues anymore because of the defensive shifts. If you can't reach first base, you ain't gonna score.
And having a half-dozen swingaholics playing LF will not make up for the zilch coming out of right field and the combined .298 OBP from center field.
I got not clue what this infield will generate on offense but it's not gonna be pretty.

I will wait till 2020 to see if we have a pitcher capable of making an All-Star game roster.

And I do know that having a third-base coach who waves guys home because he'd rather make thing happen than play smart baseball is never going to work.

Don Long probably thinks he has small balls.

 

[JohnU]

It was sort of fun to put some names and bodies together for spring opener.

 

[wvu_man]

I know that the odds are stacked against this team for this season and possibly many years to come but if we are going to lose 100 games this year, I'd like to see us go through the growing pains and struggles with the "youngins" playing. As a younger Reds fan (just turned 33), I never got to watch the Big Red Machine so I'm pretty much used to watching a sub-par team trot out onto field every spring. I have watched losing season after losing season for many years so I'm pretty much used to that. So basically what I'm saying is, I love my Reds and if I'm going to watch them lose, I'd like to see a group of young, hungry guys who will hustle, learn the game, grow and improve. I don't have a whole lot of confidence in the owner and GM to see us through this rebuilding process because they really haven't done much in the past few years to show me why I should. I just hope that if they are going into rebuilding mode, that they will give opportunities to the prospects that they have traded for instead of sticking them in AA or AAA and not giving them a chance to succeed at the higher level. If they don't pan out, don't let them rot in mediocrity in the minors. Give them a chance or move on.

 

[JohnU]

OK, two of our young hosses got the ball ... Stephenson and Reed. Anybody else believe they will spend the first half of the season in the minors? Basically, the interview with Williams said as much. They aren't as interested in winning as in player improvement.

I still think the Reds will trade Bruce before long.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's already a night and day difference between Jocketty and Williams in regard to keeping the paying customers in the loop within discretionary limits. Dick is much more open and forthcoming with plans for the future. Jocketty was more of a "on the need to know" kind of GM, and he didn't think anyone else needed to know.

The gist I got from DW was that if they are ready, they will be in Cincinnati, if they need more development they will be in Louisville. We can assume that about most of the pitchers in camp competing for a realistic spot on the OD roster....., so no revelation there.

Bryan Price made comments to the effect that Stephenson could make the team as a member of the bullpen or SP. I'd assume there's multiple guys that fall into that category. None of these guys can be a starter in Louisville and Cincinnati and pitch the full season with the exception of maybe DeSclafani. Lorenzen, Finnegan, Iglesias, and the prospects in competition to make the club could all fall into splitting time between the rotation and bullpen.

From a durability standpoint Iglesias is the one that seems to have the club worried the most. Listed as behind schedule due to a off season flexibility program, he's the one I like the most. I think he could the best RHP of the group we're seeing in camp.

Any thoughts on PED suspended Juan Duran getting AB's yesterday? They seem like wasted plate appearances for a guy that can't play the first half of the season. In my opinion he shouldn't even be in camp.

 

[JohnU]

I think giving Duran a chance to play is not a bad idea, shows support for the guy if indeed he needs that. Plus, he will need to be somewhere after the suspension ends. I don't think ST was going to achieve much else. Otherwise, he's taking a spot on the field of somebody more worthy. Duran will never face big-league pitchers.

Concur on Igelsias, who seems to get it about pitching at the top level. I think Lorenzen will end up in the bullpen, maybe as the setup guy if Jumbo falters or is part of a trade. All in all, Price has a lot more flexibility with his staff than he ever has had and it appears, Dirty Sanchez aside, that it isn't clogged up with old-hag relievers.

If enthusiasm counts, that ought to matter. The onus is now on the catchers to keep control of what's going on 60 feet away. Meso and Barnhart are both capable. Not sure where Cabrera fits, other than being one of about 39 guys named Cabrera in pro baseball.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The previous attempts to trade Jay Bruce sends the definite message they have zero interest in retaining his services. Finding a suitable trade partner is the only obstacle standing in the way of him being replaced in RF by a league minimum salary player. Hell, Scott Schebler can probably bat .220 and hit 25 bombs and match JB's swing and miss inefficiency for $12M less.

Watching Schebler jump and crash after catching a ball short of the wall Tuesday was reminiscent of watching JB and a few of his feeble past attempts at the wall. Yesterday I saw another one when Schebler air mailed both cutoff men and the runner advanced.

Jay Bruce is a good kid, but he's the Reds' poster boy for top prospects that have advanced to the Majors and still lack basic fundamentals. It's a developmental cultural failing that has to change.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

They like Cabrera and I've read a few stories suggesting they might keep three catchers with Mesoraco returning from injury. It'd make more sense if any of them actually played another position.

Another guy they're looking at early is Jordan Pacheco. He plays multiple defensive positions and has almost 400 games behind the dish between MiLB and MLB games. Didn't look too hot playing the hot-corner Tuesday. He's one of those guys Price is on record as liking.

 

[JohnU]

Pacheco appears to be the utility man du-jour if he can beat out DeJesus the Younger.

Of the outfielders who seem to be on the list, we have Holt, Cave, Schrebler, Duvall, Waldrip, Winker and 12 or so others whose names escape me. I think DeJesus played enough LF to qualify and Pacheco has been in the OF. (sigh) Peraza is getting reps in CF. I think he will go to Lousyville to learn to play outfield until Phillips is gone.

Bruce will end up in Baldy Moore pretty soon, in exchange for 16 lefthanded pitchers and Gus Triandos.

I can't see the Reds bringing Winker to the show until late summer.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think DeJesus is a lock much the same way Negron was last ST in Bryan Price's eyes.

There are limited options for UT middle infielders. Pacheco and Duvall are more 1B/ 3b with Duvall adding LF and Pacheco being emergency 3rd catcher. DeJesus and Peraza are the only UT guys that play the middle (also 3B) and both can play OF.

IMO, They'll only keep one of either Peraza and DeJesus on the OD roster. Suarez provides flexibility as another option to play up the middle with Duvall or Pacheco moving to 3B if needed in a pinch. Price likes Pacheco with his defensive flexibility and MLB experienced bat off the bench.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'll probably change my mind a dozen times between now and Opening Day, but at the moment I see DeJesus and Pacheco both making the cut.

 

[JohnU]

So if Pacheco makes the team as the 3rd catcher, does that send Cabrera out? If Cabrera stays, the need for an emergency catcher is less, meaning you try to find a UT guy who can hit better than Pacheco can.
Good luck with that, I reckon.
Lots of spare parts on this roster.

 

[JohnU]

YEAH BABY!

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think the Reds are situated fine with Mesoraco and Barnhart as the primary back stops. If Mesoraco didn't have season ending hip surgery last year I don't think they'd be considering a third catcher.

Ramon Cabrera appears to be out of assignment options, so being DFA seems inevitable if that is the case. I can't see the club carrying 3 catchers all season without one or more playing a secondary position. I think the Reds like Cabrera, but he may fall victim to the numbers game.

Pacheco signed a minor league deal and I don't think he's a qualified article XX-B free agent that has release rights under the CBA if he doesn't make the team, so he can be kept as insurance at Louisville if needed. I think they keep a third catcher, but I don't see Cabrera on the OD roster if Pacheco makes the cut and vice versa.

 

[eburg5000]

Undefeated so far in st games. Normally that wouldn't mean much, But we better enjoy this while we can. Wins will be few, and far between this year

 

[Hit-n-Run]

One loss and they slid to 4th. Didn't take long to turn the smiles upside down. By season's end all we'll have to do is turn the standings upside down and they'll still be near the top.

 

[JohnU]

One loss and they slid to 4th. Didn't take long to turn the smiles upside down. By season's end all we'll have to do is turn the standings upside down and they'll still be near the top.

It's early. We should be OK when ol' Hoss gets back.

 

[JohnU]

Article on a guy who seems to have slipped past the radar gun.

LAYNE SOMSEN