SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[Redsfan1507]

For whatever reason, the recent Reds have been reluctant to be very creative with changing positions. If these concrete constipated minds ran the Big Red Machine, George Phillips was a shortstop, and there was talk of moving him over, but decided they were better off with 6 -1/2 forgettable shortstops over about 6 seasons, IMO, because they didn't have any 2b other than Phillips that could hit either.

The Chapman quagmire is a tired subject. Everyone but Dusty wanted AC to start, then Baker leaves, and they refuse to start AC, even though he was the Reds best SP in 2 consecutive ST, and he could be sent back to the pen a week from his last start.

It was public info the Reds pegged Devin Mesoraco as the 4 hitter last year. No wonder. The problem is that as a catcher only, he would miss about 200 at bats a season due to forced rest without playing a second position...then his hip injury, and guess what ? He still is going to be a part time catcher only, even though not a single player exists in this organization they've mentioned so far as a LF possible, has much experience as a hitter. Duvall is Adam Dunn, less 50 walks and 20 HR a season from Dunn's normal. Yorman Rodriguez is Billy Hamilton, less about 50 steals a year. Waldrop is probably a platoon only hitter, and Winkler is a AA player right now. So, I don't understand what's to risk giving Meso some flyballs in LF this spring...unless they plan on having him back on the DL soon, or worse, keeping him on the roster for a month just to pinch hit, like last year's unfathomable pea-brained fiasco.

They've already said Peraza was a shortstop with a 2b arm, so I'd say he's a 2b to the tunnel vision Reds. Maybe a SS if they are forced to play him there... Peraza said he could play CF, doesn't mean they believe him or will give him a chance. If I were a MLB ready player like Peraza , and they sent me to Louisville on this fucked up inept team because they said they didn't have a position for me, I'd demand a trade.

 

[Redsfan1507]

WOW. 1ST PARAGRAPH GOT DELETED UO BADLY-

SHOULD HAVE SAID:

For whatever reason, the recent Reds have been reluctant to be very creative with changing positions. If these concrete constipated minds ran the Big Red Machine, George fFoster wouldn't have been a Red, Rose would have stayed in the OF, Dennis Menke would have played 3b, and the Reds might have not made the Series...Phillips was a shortstop, and there was talk of moving him over, but decided they were better off with 6 -1/2 forgettable shortstops over about 6 seasons, IMO, because they didn't have any 2b other than Phillips that could hit either.

 

[JohnU]

The Reds are not holding spring training this year. This is called a tryout camp. They have 5 positions anchored in concrete with 3 of them being guys whose abilities are less than predictable.

Hamilton can't hit.
Phillips probably is at the end of his career.
Cozart might not hit.
Mesoraco might not hit.

And 4 others are as close to secure as a Haitian checking account.

We have no 3B.
We haven't had a LF in 4 years.
We probably won't have a RF.

But we have Votto, if he stays on the field.

A big-league team that has no good idea who is going to be playing 3B or LF is bad enough but they are also trying to trade the RIGHT fielder too and have tried to trade the 2B!
And they signed Jonathon Sanchez, which shows they are paying attention.

to

something.

But we still have 17 guys trying to be pitchers.
And no bullpen.

 

[JohnU]

George Phillips was a nice touch.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I would alternate Mesoraco and Barnhart at C, and play Meso in LF MOST of the games Barnhart caught.

When Meso was catching, I'd play a youngster in LF- Yorman, Waldrop, DuVall, or name that player to be released later.

Hamilton would be my CF, as long as he attempts 2 bunts a game, and actually gets 2 down. If he's hitting .230, he's probably going to play until the Reds can raise a .260 hitter to replace him. Good luck with that.

If Bruce is here, he plays RF, but if he's hitting .220 and pouting, I platoon his ass so he'll never make more money in free agency.

The Reds have no 3b on the horizon, so Suarez is where Edwin Encarnacion was- he will play there everyday, regardless of his performance- never good for "motivation". Peraza would make my team if he shows any similar traits at the plate he had in the minors- I'll take a .280-.300 speedy defender over a .240 17 HR 24 E guy any day, and I am convinced that either Cozart (SS), Suarez (3b) or B-PEED (after the dump attempt) will dissapoint enough for Peraza to take a roster spot.

I hope not, but Votto may be a .230 hitting 41 year old pinch hitter making $25M in his last year of contract before this team wins 90 games again.

 

[Redsfan1507]

This team is going to suck, but you will see me in the seats. I'll be the guy in the sundeck wearing the Mr. Red mask.

 

[JohnU]

IF and a big IF ... these guys even closely resembled the talent we were told they'd have, this team could score 4 runs in that ballpark, maybe 4 in most other ballparks. But the lack of hitting has been something that blows my mind. I learned it's not the hitting coach, unless the hitting coaches the Reds hire are total idiots.

There is always that. Price seems to want a polite dugout staff. Now I am not sure how that fucking helps the fucking Reds.

I need to mention that 4 runs is not going to win many games with this pitching staff.

 

[JohnU]

So this just in ... I hate to say it, but this is another example of a manager whose only idea of a clue was batting Hamilton 9th in the order. Fay has moved on from the Enquirer to WCPO ... same results.

Hamilton: Will lead off to begin season
--
Manager Bryan Price indicated Wednesday that Hamilton (shoulder) will sit atop the Reds' order to begin the 2016 season, John Fay of WCPO reports. "That's the question on him. Is he leadoff hitter or does he hit somewhere else?" Price said.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The problem with the Reds lineup is, Votto can't hit in all 9 spots.

I like a leadoff hitter with steal speed (check) and OBP above .330 (uh...)...SO, Hamilton already has the easy half of my criteria down, now all he has to do is improve his OBP by a hundred points. I dunno if it makes a difference or not, but if he had about 100 more bunt attempts a year, I guarantee he would get on base more than those hundred swings being flyballs and strikeouts instead. He would also get better at bunting, and I think that is a more worthwhile endeavour than trying to hit the ball in the air more for a 145 pound guy.

Unless there is another guy in this lineup with 30+ steal and .330 + OBP potential, I'm for Hamilton by default. Hell, Billy has hit better than Corey Patterson did as a Red, every year. He walked once more than BP last year, but no one wants to walk Billy. It can be a triple in a pitch or two.

BP ? My problems with BP are all offensive. I don't want a groundball prone hitter in the 4 spot with 2 on and 1 out, thank you. He doesn't walk. He hits more DP's than HR's EVERY year, no matter where he hits in the lineup. I don't think he protects Joey Votto, but the opposite is definitely true, so I'd hit BP in front of Votto.

I'd like to request a smart enough manager to wait to bunt the #2 hitter, until AFTER Hamilton stole 2b, so he could bunt him to 3b...Hell, if they took 2 pitches, they might have BH at 3b with no outs. So, I'd like a 2 hitter than can make contact with 2 strikes, put down a bunt, steal a base himself once in a while, and be able to hit a medium popup to tag Billy. It can't be Votto, because you gotta score more than 1 run a game, and at best, Billy is usually only on base 1 time a game. We need to score him that time, damned near every time. I'd like to get Votto behind Votto, so BP might add another run a game. Then we can ask Mesoraco and Bruce to add one, and the rest to do same. That way maybe we lose 5-4 instead of 5-1.

Who hits #4 ?

IMO, a guy that hits deep flyballs regularly and is a power threat that won't chase out of the zone 150 + times a year. Sounds like Mesoraco to me, but just 350 at bats a season is surrender without trying. This guy has to play another easy position for 50 games a year to get 200 more PA's- LEFTFIELD, or Rightfield anyone ? He has the arm, ans Jay Bruce is a whiffaholic begging for a platoon, that hits .198 for 5 months a season. He isn't a season long 4 hitter on a MLB team, he's a 2 week hot streak twice a year. Barnhart and Mesoraco in the lineup together for 50 games will probably result in more net runs than Barnhart and Duvall or Barnhart and Rodriguez or Barnhart and whoever in LF for those 50 games. If Adam Dunn played 150 games a year in LF, Mesoraco can play 50, no problem.

Is Suarez a hitter ? I sure hope so. That would give us 4.

Cozart ? C'mon... I think Peraza could be .280 with 30 steals in a little while, but they have to find a position for him. I don't think that will take too long, if he would play 3b or OF... or maybe SS, when losing a body part a year catches up to poor Zack Cozart.

Maybe one or two of these young OF will surprise us...if so, I'd platoon Bruce and Hamilton and Mesoraco with them.

I don't even want to think about the pitching yet. I think I might use a 7 man rotation. That way the math works (7 x 150 innings=1,050 IP, or about what a veteran rotation starting rotation should put up. That would leave them without having to shut anyone down, and would limit the amount of washed up deadbeat relievers to about 5. Less is more there, folks. Hoover can close for 15 of the 20 games a year we have a lead after 8 innings.

 

[JohnU]

Middle infielders can transition to left field within a couple hundred fungoes. Playing the foul line corners takes some time but it can be done. Most catchers can go to 1B after a week, though it may not be pretty. I'd give Mesoraco a shot to backup at 1B to give JV a day off every 10.

Cincy's overall defense will be as good as it has been so even with a new 3B, it's not brutal in the grass.

Hamilton, BP, Votto, Mesoraco, Suarez, Bruce ... etc. Not sure how Peraza fits but it's fairly clear he's not going to make the club anyhow. It also appears the Reds won't be adding any new faces barring a Bruce trade.

There appears to be 3 or 4 other left fielders who will get a chance. I lose track of them.

Cozart to left field?

 

[JohnU]

It appears, lack of competition, that Suarez is our 3B. Now, given what we have seen, a guy who hits .260 is a lock for the lineup. What the fuck-ever.

I got no rap on Suarez, but our "upgrade" is to move a stone-handed SS to 3B and hope he can hit.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Before we see this team be competitive they're going to have to cycle through most of the 2016 OD roster. The level of talent they've acquired isn't there to compete within the next couple years. It's hard to see the club plugging the remaining holes having already spent most of it bargaining chips.

I'm tired of the FO excuses blaming economics. They've made long-term commitments that they were never going to be able to afford and remain competitive. The main reason the budget is a problem is because they mismanaged it. May be a small market, but they made BIG mistakes.

Most of the returning position players aren't going to improve. I'm not sure which way Suarez is going to go. I don't think he'll hit .280, but if his power numbers trend upward I'd be satisfied with .260.

The more I look at the roster the more I think Peraza makes the OD roster. There's little versatility on this roster. Not being able to trade Phillips leaves him without a everyday position, but there are few options for a utility type player that can play middle IF and CF. If he hits...I could see him being utilized as a super UT guy this season. Injuries have a way of getting UT guys more playing time than expected.

I could see Hamilton eventually falling into a UT role here or elsewhere if his offense doesn't improve.

 

[JohnU]

It appears that either Price or whoever pushes his buttons has decided that Hamilton will indeed excel at leadoff this spring. It could be a ploy, like one you'd hear from North Korea, about the harvest having been a success and happy days are just a tomorrow away. Once Billy shows his true potential, we shall bask in the glory that we are destined to fulfill.

I don't see how Peraza can be shipped off to Lousyville but we are only taking the front office's word for it that the guy can play. Details, details. I do think Suarez's sample size was sufficiently solid so as to add more 'S's' to his scouting synopsis.

More worrisome is that Cozart still isn't up to speed and if he isn't up to speed, then he's not as good as he was last year and he was better last year for 2 months, mainly because ... who knows? So if he reverts to normal, we're even worse off than the North Korean farmers.

As far as evaluating players, the Reds seem to have taken the approach that almost any young guy who gets signed to a pro deal has the potential to become the next version of Eric Davis. I do recall when ED hit the show. We all KNEW that the harvest was about to succeed. There was something that said, "Eric Davis will lead this team to its predestined glory."

I don't know that anyone is saying that about Scott Shrebler.

 

[chico ruiz]

we reds fans have to get right with the idea of taking comfort in individual player improvements, as opposed to overall team improvement (wins and losses), in 2016 and the slow-motion movement toward 2017->. they will probably seem insignificant as the team struggles. examples off the top of my head would be hamilton having a OBP of .300+, winker or rodriquez batting .280 or higher for at least half seasons with some power, the reds leading mlb in stolen bases, 3 or 4 of the young pitchers exhibiting honest to goodness consistent mlb stuff. we probably won't see reed, garrett, or stephenson until later in the season. but, you never know, and it will be interesting to see who makes the leap and succeeds. for a lot of them it will probably be 2017 or 18.

we'll have to resist the urge to pick apart the reds and their limited options this year. it's going to be a rough year, but i think it's fair to be mildly optimistic for the near future. as 1507 has been fond of pointing out, very good teams -who are successful in the post season- have at least one good lefty starter. the reds have 4 or 5 viable candidates for those presumptive spot -or spots- in their organization right now. however, in looking at the reds roster & farms -it seems to me- they are going to have to trade pitching for hitting at some point. that will happen, probably as soon as this season. when making the last slew of trades, it made sense to trade for pitchers rather than hitters if those guys were ranked higher in the reds evaluations. i do think the reds may have missed the boat by not pulling the trigger on the bruce for wheeler trade. pardon the mixed metaphors, but -for the reasons stated above- i think it was a risk worth taking to find a way to make that trade happen.

i thought the reds would get some better bats back for chapman. that was a little disappointing, but the reds seem to be very high on jagielo. i believe they wanted to draft him in 2013? i think suarez fits in somewhere for the reds immediate, but maybe not future plans. however, the consensus on this board is they have more pressing and definite needs elsewhere (especially in the outfield). the reds have enough pitching prospects to handle normal attrition while still having some extra pitchers to trade for bats. looking from the outside / in, it would appear this is the reds road map forward to being competitive.

 

[JohnU]

I might agree that the team will show incremental improvement as they adjust to a new style of play. I still don't know what that style of play actually IS, but it's clear the 3-run homer isn't going to be all that common.

The pitching intrigues me since what I see on offense and in the field isn't much of a surprise, other than maybe one of the left fielders actually producing. I would love to see Price adopt a novel approach to roster management with his pitchers. I don't believe he will, but this is a chance to re-invent the wheel when it comes to low-leverage starters with young arms, miscast middle relief made up of guys who just can't not get jobs ... and above all, the notion that a setup guy and a closer are the only way to win.

Hell, a 7-man rotation would work. This team does not need strength in the back of the bullpen.

But they haven't been able to find any hitting, so I would guess trading for it will be a tough challenge.

Hitters are hard to find.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree with Chico to a certain degree on how this team should be viewed moving forward. In theory individual improvement should lead to team improvement, but I don't see clear evidence that there's a change in developmental philosophy to alter the future outcome from the past decade we've seen. It looks like business as usual to me.

They've acquired some speed, but have acquired a equal amount of whiff and hope for a 3-run homer types that are past the normal developmental age. The Duvall and Schebler one dimensional players are exactly what smarter teams are trying to get away from. I can understand they may be a bridge to some future player/s, but at this point they look like a bridge to nowhere.

I agree with John in that hitting is getting harder to find. The type of hitters that were once seen as acceptable are now viewed as second tier players. The Pedro Alvarez one dimensional types are dinosaurs and even guys like Fowler and Ian Desmond are finding their monetary value isn't what their agent would lead them to believe. The latter two found out the hard way that their value isn't what it use to be when a #1 draft pick is part of the price. Teams place a lot of value in their top draft picks these days. Something the Reds didn't seem to understand when they traded for Latos.

The Fowler negotiating carousel was comical. Apparently a bird in the hand isn't as good as two in the bush with a opt out.

Colby Rasmus turned out to be the smartest guy in the room down in Houston when he accepted the qualifying $15.8M offer. I'd bet Luhnow doesn't make him that offer next year.

But nonetheless ST games start tomorrow and I'll be tuning in to listen whenever they're on. Regardless of the outcome this season, it's still better than no baseball.

 

[JohnU]

Alleging the Reds don't part ways with Bruce, the lineup would appear to be somewhat similar to recent years, though absent Frazier, I'd assume Mesoraco will move into a higher spot. Trading anything Meso gives us for what Pena gave us is probably a plus.

I did see where the Reds are giving Peraza some "reps" in center field, so that is either a hint or a warning to cousin Billy to get the bat on the ball a little more.

These early spring interviews are being dissected by the fantasy leagues, so it's hard to tell what really is coming from the camps. We won't know much for another 2 weeks. Keeping an eye on Lamb will matter.

Anyone have a guess about what Cingrani is going to do?

 

[JohnU]

So, Bruce is finally getting some help from Larkin.
Maybe he will learn to hit just before we trade him.

REPORT HERE

 

[Redsfan1507]

I would feel sorry for poor Joey Votto, who took all that money, then had anxiety and gimpy knee that kept him drawing full time pay for two very part time seasons out of 4....except winning was never part of a MLB contract, by either party. The only yearly guarantees in baseball are the big players get paid no matter how they perform, and most fans are disappointed in the end.

Careful what you ask for, sometimes you get it...like BP, who signed what was at the time, equal to the best NL 2b contract, only to be perceived by BP as a ripoff when MVP Joey Votto got 4 times his deal. Now, BP and the Reds are probably going to have to play out that contract, because once again, no one was willing to sweeten BP's contract to trade him, or trade for him.

As a long time Reds fan, I've seen this movie before- a few times....back in the days where "stars" were Mario Soto, Dan Driessen and aging Dave Concepcion...to the decline of Larkin and the revolving door of failed SS since... when Griffey Jr, Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion were allowed to compete for laziest Reds player since Alex Johnson.

The Reds can't cite economics, other than their ineptitude. The recent $110 M payroll isn't among the worst in MLB, it was upper middle of the pack. They just didn't get what they paid for. $14M isn't a big salary by MLB standards, but it's too much for the Reds to pay a "cleanup hitter" with 14 HR, or an everyday RF that hits .220. They signed Bailey, and couldn't afford Cueto. They paid Madson $12M for not pitching. They paid Broxton to close and never gave him the job, signed Chapman to start, and never started him. They signed castaways Gomes, Hairston and Ludwick and actually got 1st year 1/2 season production...and signed them all to longer deals only to have them be what the back of their baseball cards said they were...then, after NO lessons learned, they signed Marlin Byrd. They paid $6M for Cairo and Hannahan combined, but had to trade Frazier because he made $8M. BTW- so does Mesoraco, but he's planned to be a little more than half time platoon Cather and cleanup hitter with a bad hip and no second position.

The Reds have signed players that shouldn't have been re-signed by anyone, and paid them too much. They paid platoons and pinch hitters to be regulars, and they paid players expected to be stars, that weren't, too much. They traded starting players for role players soon to be released. The paid Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty too much, for too little, for too long. All the while, Reds farmhands continued to graduate to MLB without the ability to even make contact more than 70-75% of their swings, without the ability to get a bunt down in two tries, or to throw a strike to the single lefty hitter they are paid not to walk.

If the Reds don't change their way of doing business-not just in MLB payroll, but in minor league development and the front office staff, 10 dozen minor leaguers aren't going to solve the Reds problems, now or in the future.

Losing isn't a prerequisite to winning, folks. It's quite the contrary- winning is a result of superior process, and losing is evidence of sustained ineptitude. This Reds team isn't losing to get better, they are losing because they failed to win with better talent and are out of money to overpay someone else's players, and have none worthy of their own MLB ready.. All they are acting on is the old axiom that you can always lose cheaper, in the hopes that other peoples prospects are better than their own- what does that say ? The front office needs time to learn how to do their job ?

I understand these players want to be better, but most can't. It's not their fault, so I'll refuse to boo them. I wish they introduced the GM so I could boo him.

The answers aren't in Cincinnati- it's growing them in Billings and Pensacola, Dayton and Daytona, and Louisville. Pardon me if I don't trust the Reds to do that- I need some proof the Reds have learned to do that first.

 

[chico ruiz]

i've been writing / posting, in detail, for 3+ years how and why this day was coming for the reds. if, as h'n'r says, there is no 'change in developmental philosophy' and actual substantive delivery, of said, on the farms, then the same thing will happen 5 years from now. but, i'm trying to be optimistic. why? because it's almost spring. it's spring training time. i know you guys were probably the same growing up when this time of year rolled around. opening day is around the corner and i'm getting ready for little league. hell yeah! hard as a rock infields at fresno fields. taking grounders in the chops and loving it. black eyes, skinned knees, cherries from sliding on the outside of your thigh. i didn't care. i was going to master the pop-up and hook slides come hell or high-water. i ruined a lot of pants and unis. and that smell! cool crisp clean early pre-spring afternoons. the grass is struggling to turn green. i had my bill mazeroski 2nd baseman's glove, and rico carty bat, and i couldn't wait for school to let out. my grades always slipped a bit during this time of year. i remember hating it when they tried to make me a catcher. but, i did it. and good lord, in high school, we were already playing games on february 29th. that's when i discovered sliding pants. enough of this cloying nonsense, and back to the reality of the organization we grew up loving and has been slowing rotting from the inside out. i'm just kidding you freakishly red baseball partisans.

i read an interview with dick williams that gave this red's fan some hope moving forward.

"We're not saving to create a profit, we're saving to invest in the future, for sure," Williams said. "We've got the biggest amateur signing pool this year, when you combine domestic and international. We want to take full advantage of it. Obviously, there's a lot of operational investments we'll make as well. I talked about investing in the analytics and sports science. We'll be investing in personnel, scouting personnel, new player development initiatives. I'll be talking a lot about that over the course of this year as we roll things out, but we'll put that money [to] work for sure."


here's a quote from a BA writer on robert stephenson.

Why waste service time for a pitcher who hasn’t yet shown he’s mastered the skills that are generally believed to be necessary to pitch successfully in the big leagues. Homer Bailey is a great example of what to worry about happening with that kind of approach. Bailey made his big league debut in 2007, and got shelled. He was back up in 2008, and got shelled. He was mediocre in 2009 as he bounced again between AAA and the majors. It was a similar story in 2010 and again in 2011. Bailey finally spent a full season in the majors in 2012. By that point he was already hitting arbitration. So the Reds ended up getting just a couple of years of Bailey in middle to front-of-rotation form before he reached free agency. There’s no reason to do that with Stephenson. A great Robert Stephenson start in the big leagues next April means very little, especially when it might be sandwiched around some poor ones. Look at what the Mets have done with Noah Syndergaard and others or how the Rays develop pitchers. They keep them in AAA a little longer than necessary. The advantage of that is you get big league ready starters who are ready to go when they hit the majors, not a year or two down the road.

there are some things i agree with, and some things i don't, but i think it underscores what the reds have NOT been doing, in their system, for the last almost decade. in order to catch up with teams that invested resources (not just money, but cultural, and instructional changes) in their farm systems, the reds traded for more advanced pitching prospects. and as h'n'r points out, this is a business model that is unsustainable if you expect to win consistently. on the other side of the optimism coin, the reds also have the second overall pick in the draft. if they are really high on, for instance, two college bats, they could trade one of their pitchers for another draft slot near the top and get another kid from middletown. i've been hearing a lot about florida’s buddy reed, louisville’s corey ray, and tennessee’s nick senzel. the reds have some chips, but -absolutely- things have to change systemically and internally. i'm just tuckered out writing about it. hope that doesn't make me sound like an arrogant prick.