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Part 1 of 3
RB ranking tiers: Seeking value among vets, rookies, timeshares
By Eric Karabell
Unlike the quarterback position, which has a useful strategy all to itself, fantasy owners are rarely going to look at the running backs from their draft and claim they’re tangibly set at the position. In fact, halfway through the average draft, most owners will look at their running backs -- and the many problematic options lurking -- and come away unimpressed.
That’s how things tend to work these days at running back, as injuries, timeshares and so much general uncertainty make constructing a team virtual guesswork. Fantasy owners are no longer directed into coveting the position in early rounds, though it’s best to get a decent balance at the position.
Hopefully this blog entry on following a tiered system can help.
Obviously, we cannot know who your early running backs are, so once one hits the middle rounds, owners should be prepared to follow their own instincts, get a proper mix of reasonable options and, as always, avoid reaching.
Value is key. Draft six running backs and hope three can be weekly plays. Sure, we’d all hope for more, but this is running back, so realism is warranted.
With quarterback tiers in the rear-view mirror and wide receivers pending later this week, here is a look at my running back tiers.
Tier 1: Top of Round 1
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Just like at quarterback, there is a "big three" at this position, and you really can’t go wrong with any of them. Well, you could -- if the second fellow gets hurt or suspended again, or if the third guy gets suspended -- but for right now, all is well. For now. If these three guys go 1-2-3, one can’t argue.
Tier 2: Top of Round 2
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans
One could debate the overall placement in comparison to wide receivers, and it would make perfect sense. McCoy and Gordon could very well be first-round choices, and nobody would argue. This is a rather large tier, but for each one, there’s some degree of concern. The concern will only grow later. McCoy and Gordon probably see their touchdowns decline. Freeman and Murray could share touches with teammates more than last season. Howard isn’t a pass-catcher, and these are PPR tiers. But the running back position as a whole is a mess, so the Tier 2 guys remain safe fantasy starters.
Tier 3: Late Round 2
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
Really, Tier 2 could have two more players. I’m just a bit more scared about these fellows than the others. Miller’s touches were up, but his yards per carry and receptions were not. The Texans could easily scale back his touches to what we saw in his Miami days to get better production. Ajayi had an interesting season replacing Miller. The Dolphins didn’t even dress him Week 1. Then he had to play. Then he had a trio of 200-yard rushing performances but was otherwise quiet. His workload is also in question, and by the way, even if it’s Tom Savage and Jay Cutler as the respective quarterbacks, does that help these guys?
Tier 4: Round 3
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Gurley is the veteran of the group and the one coming off the rough season, but Jared Goff and the offensive line figure to improve, making his life easier. Then we’ve got three rookies. Fournette probably won’t catch many passes. McCaffrey figures to catch many passes, but the overall touches could be problematic. And Mixon really might do just about everything, so his upside trumps the others, in theory. Whatever the case, I like all three quite a bit, as shown here. Rookie running backs with great opportunity can do great things, so don’t be afraid to reach a little.
Tier 5: Round 4
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
Each of these veterans enters a crossroads season. Crowell is better statistically than most realize, but it’s worth pointing out the club has another running back to catch passes. The Saints brought in a future Hall of Famer in Adrian Peterson, who might or might not be too old to star again, to make Ingram’s situation muddled, but again, the numbers should still be there. As for Lynch, coming out of retirement to a solid situation with a winning team and offense, well, at least he didn’t get hurt or banged around last season by linebackers. He should, in theory, be healthy and motivated.
RB ranking tiers: Seeking value among vets, rookies, timeshares
By Eric Karabell
Unlike the quarterback position, which has a useful strategy all to itself, fantasy owners are rarely going to look at the running backs from their draft and claim they’re tangibly set at the position. In fact, halfway through the average draft, most owners will look at their running backs -- and the many problematic options lurking -- and come away unimpressed.
That’s how things tend to work these days at running back, as injuries, timeshares and so much general uncertainty make constructing a team virtual guesswork. Fantasy owners are no longer directed into coveting the position in early rounds, though it’s best to get a decent balance at the position.
Hopefully this blog entry on following a tiered system can help.
Obviously, we cannot know who your early running backs are, so once one hits the middle rounds, owners should be prepared to follow their own instincts, get a proper mix of reasonable options and, as always, avoid reaching.
Value is key. Draft six running backs and hope three can be weekly plays. Sure, we’d all hope for more, but this is running back, so realism is warranted.
With quarterback tiers in the rear-view mirror and wide receivers pending later this week, here is a look at my running back tiers.
Tier 1: Top of Round 1
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Just like at quarterback, there is a "big three" at this position, and you really can’t go wrong with any of them. Well, you could -- if the second fellow gets hurt or suspended again, or if the third guy gets suspended -- but for right now, all is well. For now. If these three guys go 1-2-3, one can’t argue.
Tier 2: Top of Round 2
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans
One could debate the overall placement in comparison to wide receivers, and it would make perfect sense. McCoy and Gordon could very well be first-round choices, and nobody would argue. This is a rather large tier, but for each one, there’s some degree of concern. The concern will only grow later. McCoy and Gordon probably see their touchdowns decline. Freeman and Murray could share touches with teammates more than last season. Howard isn’t a pass-catcher, and these are PPR tiers. But the running back position as a whole is a mess, so the Tier 2 guys remain safe fantasy starters.
Tier 3: Late Round 2
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
Really, Tier 2 could have two more players. I’m just a bit more scared about these fellows than the others. Miller’s touches were up, but his yards per carry and receptions were not. The Texans could easily scale back his touches to what we saw in his Miami days to get better production. Ajayi had an interesting season replacing Miller. The Dolphins didn’t even dress him Week 1. Then he had to play. Then he had a trio of 200-yard rushing performances but was otherwise quiet. His workload is also in question, and by the way, even if it’s Tom Savage and Jay Cutler as the respective quarterbacks, does that help these guys?
Tier 4: Round 3
Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Gurley is the veteran of the group and the one coming off the rough season, but Jared Goff and the offensive line figure to improve, making his life easier. Then we’ve got three rookies. Fournette probably won’t catch many passes. McCaffrey figures to catch many passes, but the overall touches could be problematic. And Mixon really might do just about everything, so his upside trumps the others, in theory. Whatever the case, I like all three quite a bit, as shown here. Rookie running backs with great opportunity can do great things, so don’t be afraid to reach a little.
Tier 5: Round 4
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders
Each of these veterans enters a crossroads season. Crowell is better statistically than most realize, but it’s worth pointing out the club has another running back to catch passes. The Saints brought in a future Hall of Famer in Adrian Peterson, who might or might not be too old to star again, to make Ingram’s situation muddled, but again, the numbers should still be there. As for Lynch, coming out of retirement to a solid situation with a winning team and offense, well, at least he didn’t get hurt or banged around last season by linebackers. He should, in theory, be healthy and motivated.
