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TREFF
Fantasy Football Guru--??
So, being extremely bored this Monday morning/afternoon, I decided to check out what teams might potentially be doing this off season. Before I even get started though, with potential dominoes at QB like Brady, Prescott, Rivers, Dalton, Bridgewater, Winston, Tranny and Mariota...the signing of any one of which would drastically change a team's cap situation, and possibly thier entire offensive philosophy, everything at this point is just pure speculation.
So, going by who is currently on the rosters, the cap space, and the most likely scenarios of Tennessee signing Henry and Arizona signing Drake..here's what I've come up with--
Teams likely to seriously address the RB position-
Tampa Bay **80+ million in cap space** - currently, only the disappointing Ronnie Jones on the roster. With that cap space, they could do whatever they want. But given they've gotta lock up a QB, and will need to sign Godwin to a long deal soon, my estimate is a RB in top 2 rounds.
Maimi **80+ M*** Even worse than TB's RB depth chart. Ballage and Gaskins are not the dudes. Also like TB, gobs of cap space, but surely this would be better put to use investing on both sides of the line. Given the almost certainty of a rookie QB, I would expect a low end veteran signing, a return of Lamar Miller perhaps? Maybe Crowell, or someone the cap strapped Niners cut, or a real low ball like Riddick or ? AND I expect a RB taken in the first two rounds for a longer term solution.
Houston **60 M ** Houston could go the easy route, and re-sign Hyde or even L. Miller. But my guess is this is the landing spot for Melvin Gordon. Highly doubtful they invest draft capital in anything but depth at the position. But they do HAVE to get someone with really only Duke Johnson if note currently on the roster.
LAChargers **50+M** Chargers have to replace Gordon on the roster, even if Ekeler is the guy going forward. Plus they need to sign a QB, and various other needs, so that 50 mill will go quickly. I'm expecting a low end veteran like Cromwell or maybe Hyde, but wouldn't be too shocked if they went with a rookie, especially if they sign a vet QB.
Atlanta **5M** (ouch!). With only 5 mill sitting around, the Falcons have some tough choices. A seemingly easy one would be to dump D. Freeman and save roughly 3 million. With that kind if cap situation, I can't imagine any worthy RB being chased by the Falcons, but Freeman should be gone, and they'll draft a rook to replace him, early.
KC **13M ** Now the chiefs are intriguing. First, they can save a ridiculous 13mil by saying goodbye to S. Watkins. Either he restructures, significantly, or that's a dine deal. Secondly, the incumbent, is on a team option, and hasn't exactly proved dependable, so its no big loss to wave bye bye to him either. So, with no significant cap space, even after the easy calls, free agency isnt a realistic option, meaning they'll likely draft a rook. Now, Reid is well aware that the success of this team hinges on the offense, and they did exceptionally better offensively when a more typical, dynamic, 3 down style back like K. Hunt was on the roster, and I really expect one of the top 3 rookie RB's lands here.
Now were getting into the real iffy spots---
Indianapolis **86m** Indy has a capable back in Marlon Mack, sure. But, Mack needs a new deal. Will they commit to him? Or take this opportunity to nail down Gordon, or maybe even K. Hunt? Yes, I know the owners said no with the character issues, but hey, seen stranger things. Even if they were to throw BIG money at a QB, theres still plenty to get any FA RB they desire. I do not expect a draft pick, at least not a high one, but possibly some mid round competition if the right guy falls.
New Orleans **9+M** (ouch again). Normally I'd say they don't need a RB, Kamara and Murray are perfectly fine, and under contract. But, given the cap situation, releasing Murray creates space, and he is replaceable. This would likely be a draft pick, one of the bigger, 2 down type rookies like Z. Moss would be great here to compliment Kamara
San Francisco **12M** 12 million MIGHT cover the rookie class. I expect a little house cleaning as Shanny Jr. cuts ties with a couple free agency busts. Over 8 mill can be saved by cutting Coleman and McKinnon (another crazy amount of 12M with an adios to R. Sherman if they so chose). Again, cap space would dictate a likelihood of a draft pick. And given the gym rat Mostert's late season success in the tried and true Shanny run game, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a late round pick, and he runs away with the job in camp. But would LOVE to see one of Swift, Taylor or Dobbins here..or even Akers or CEH.
And finally,
Pittsburgh **NEG 8+ Mill*** (holy hell, wtf!?!?). Some serious cuts and redos need to happen behind the steel curtain just to get under the cap, let along have enough to sign thier own FA's, and another 10-15 mill for the rookie class. Far as I'm concerned, ANYTHING can go here, and its not like it isnt a need. Conner has flashed, will glimmered a bit, a 4 game stretch and 2 other outliers, along with about 25 dudes, while missing 11 games in 3 seasons. And Samuels and Snell showed they aren't a great answer either. But obviously, if they do address RB, it has to be in the draft.
Now, obviously, if the Titans inexplicably fail to sign Henry, he goes to the top of the list of any team on this list with more than 50m to spend...Christ, imagine D. Henry with read option Watson, and Hopkins/Fuller, a fantasy GOLD MINE!...and of course Tennessee would jump to the top of the list of landing spots. Same situation with ARZ and Drake, although I doubt theres a mad scramble to sign Drake. He'll have no problem finding a job, but would be at best the 2nd best RB on the market, arguably #5.
Any thoughts? Am I full of shit?
So, going by who is currently on the rosters, the cap space, and the most likely scenarios of Tennessee signing Henry and Arizona signing Drake..here's what I've come up with--
Teams likely to seriously address the RB position-
Tampa Bay **80+ million in cap space** - currently, only the disappointing Ronnie Jones on the roster. With that cap space, they could do whatever they want. But given they've gotta lock up a QB, and will need to sign Godwin to a long deal soon, my estimate is a RB in top 2 rounds.
Maimi **80+ M*** Even worse than TB's RB depth chart. Ballage and Gaskins are not the dudes. Also like TB, gobs of cap space, but surely this would be better put to use investing on both sides of the line. Given the almost certainty of a rookie QB, I would expect a low end veteran signing, a return of Lamar Miller perhaps? Maybe Crowell, or someone the cap strapped Niners cut, or a real low ball like Riddick or ? AND I expect a RB taken in the first two rounds for a longer term solution.
Houston **60 M ** Houston could go the easy route, and re-sign Hyde or even L. Miller. But my guess is this is the landing spot for Melvin Gordon. Highly doubtful they invest draft capital in anything but depth at the position. But they do HAVE to get someone with really only Duke Johnson if note currently on the roster.
LAChargers **50+M** Chargers have to replace Gordon on the roster, even if Ekeler is the guy going forward. Plus they need to sign a QB, and various other needs, so that 50 mill will go quickly. I'm expecting a low end veteran like Cromwell or maybe Hyde, but wouldn't be too shocked if they went with a rookie, especially if they sign a vet QB.
Atlanta **5M** (ouch!). With only 5 mill sitting around, the Falcons have some tough choices. A seemingly easy one would be to dump D. Freeman and save roughly 3 million. With that kind if cap situation, I can't imagine any worthy RB being chased by the Falcons, but Freeman should be gone, and they'll draft a rook to replace him, early.
KC **13M ** Now the chiefs are intriguing. First, they can save a ridiculous 13mil by saying goodbye to S. Watkins. Either he restructures, significantly, or that's a dine deal. Secondly, the incumbent, is on a team option, and hasn't exactly proved dependable, so its no big loss to wave bye bye to him either. So, with no significant cap space, even after the easy calls, free agency isnt a realistic option, meaning they'll likely draft a rook. Now, Reid is well aware that the success of this team hinges on the offense, and they did exceptionally better offensively when a more typical, dynamic, 3 down style back like K. Hunt was on the roster, and I really expect one of the top 3 rookie RB's lands here.
Now were getting into the real iffy spots---
Indianapolis **86m** Indy has a capable back in Marlon Mack, sure. But, Mack needs a new deal. Will they commit to him? Or take this opportunity to nail down Gordon, or maybe even K. Hunt? Yes, I know the owners said no with the character issues, but hey, seen stranger things. Even if they were to throw BIG money at a QB, theres still plenty to get any FA RB they desire. I do not expect a draft pick, at least not a high one, but possibly some mid round competition if the right guy falls.
New Orleans **9+M** (ouch again). Normally I'd say they don't need a RB, Kamara and Murray are perfectly fine, and under contract. But, given the cap situation, releasing Murray creates space, and he is replaceable. This would likely be a draft pick, one of the bigger, 2 down type rookies like Z. Moss would be great here to compliment Kamara
San Francisco **12M** 12 million MIGHT cover the rookie class. I expect a little house cleaning as Shanny Jr. cuts ties with a couple free agency busts. Over 8 mill can be saved by cutting Coleman and McKinnon (another crazy amount of 12M with an adios to R. Sherman if they so chose). Again, cap space would dictate a likelihood of a draft pick. And given the gym rat Mostert's late season success in the tried and true Shanny run game, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a late round pick, and he runs away with the job in camp. But would LOVE to see one of Swift, Taylor or Dobbins here..or even Akers or CEH.
And finally,
Pittsburgh **NEG 8+ Mill*** (holy hell, wtf!?!?). Some serious cuts and redos need to happen behind the steel curtain just to get under the cap, let along have enough to sign thier own FA's, and another 10-15 mill for the rookie class. Far as I'm concerned, ANYTHING can go here, and its not like it isnt a need. Conner has flashed, will glimmered a bit, a 4 game stretch and 2 other outliers, along with about 25 dudes, while missing 11 games in 3 seasons. And Samuels and Snell showed they aren't a great answer either. But obviously, if they do address RB, it has to be in the draft.
Now, obviously, if the Titans inexplicably fail to sign Henry, he goes to the top of the list of any team on this list with more than 50m to spend...Christ, imagine D. Henry with read option Watson, and Hopkins/Fuller, a fantasy GOLD MINE!...and of course Tennessee would jump to the top of the list of landing spots. Same situation with ARZ and Drake, although I doubt theres a mad scramble to sign Drake. He'll have no problem finding a job, but would be at best the 2nd best RB on the market, arguably #5.
Any thoughts? Am I full of shit?