Payroll-roster 2013

[Mays-Fan]

OK, with a hat tip to tzill for his format, this is my best guess as to what the 2013 Giants will look like with their payroll. There are several huge wildcards of course at this point. The total payroll is the biggest, but some modest inflation is likely due to enhanced future revenue streams coming off the WC. Anyway, here goes:

Major assumptions:

FA's:
Scutaro 2/$15 (7/8)
Pagan 3/$36 (11/12/13)
Pence 3/$42 (13/14/15)
OF $2.0 for 2013
Theriot $1.5
Wilson – non-tendered (much as this breaks my heart)

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $3.6 Arb-2
Casilla $5.4 Arb-3
3 others $4.0 (Mijares/Kontos/Hensley/Runzler/Hembree/other)

# Bullpen Subtotal $23.25

C/IF (8)

Buster $4.0 Arb-1 or first year of extension
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $7.0 FA (2/15?)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1
Theriot $1.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $20.7

OF (5)

Pagan $11.0 FA (1st yr of 3/36?)
Pence $13.0 (Arb-3 or 1st yr of 3/42?)
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb
Other $2.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/someone)

# OF Subtotal $27.0

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $140.7 (25 players)

 

[tzill]

OK, with a hat tip to tzill for his format, this is my best guess as to what the 2013 Giants will look like with their payroll. There are several huge wildcards of course at this point. The total payroll is the biggest, but some modest inflation is likely due to enhanced future revenue streams coming off the WC. Anyway, here goes:

Major assumptions:

FA's:
Scutaro 2/$15 (7/8) 2/12
Pagan 3/$36 (11/12/13) 3/27
Pence 3/$42 (13/14/15)
OF $2.0 for 2013
Theriot $1.5
Wilson – non-tendered (much as this breaks my heart) DFA, brought back for 4 w/ incentives

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed 22.25
Cain $20.0 fixed 20.83
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed 0.95

# Starters Subtotal $67.75 69.03

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $3.6 Arb-2
Casilla $5.4 Arb-3
3 others $4.0 (Mijares/Kontos/Hensley(gone)/Runzler/Hembree/other)
(Weez 4; Mijares 1.6; Kontos 0.5)
# Bullpen Subtotal $23.25 25.35

C/IF (8)

Buster $4.0 Arb-1 or first year of extension 6.0
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $7.0 FA (2/15?) 6.0 2/12
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1 0.8
Theriot $1.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $20.7 21.5

OF (5)

Pagan $11.0 FA (1st yr of 3/36?) 9.0 3/27
Pence $13.0 (Arb-3 or 1st yr of 3/42?)
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb 1.3 Arb 1
Other $2.0 FA (can't see this)
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/someone) Kieshnick

# OF Subtotal $27.0 23.8

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $140.7 (25 players)

141.68 (24 players)


We are not far off; I don't think they'll find anyone for $2MM for that fifth OF spot. I suspect they'll spend more in the $5-6 range to move Blanco to the bench.

 

[ColinCoby]

Good work guys. Couple of quick questions:

What was the payroll at last year?

Who might the Giants be targeting for their 3rd/4th outfielder? (who would you target?)

 

[tzill]

Good work guys. Couple of quick questions:

What was the payroll at last year?

Who might the Giants be targeting for their 3rd/4th outfielder? (who would you target?)

1. 131.35
2 There are tons of FAs out there, just off the top of my head --
Buck
Hairston
Ludwick
Ross
Victorino
Morgan
and of course, Swish, Bourne, Hamilton, Upton

 

[tzill]

Oh, and next Friday is the deadline to tender arb; expect the Giants to non-tender Weez.

 

[ColinCoby]

1. 131.35
2 There are tons of FAs out there, just off the top of my head --
Buck
Hairston
Ludwick
Ross
Victorino
Morgan
and of course, Swish, Bourne, Hamilton, Upton

It would appear that most of those guys would earn more than the $5-$6 million you predict the Giants might be willing to spend.

I like the idea of Hairston. Platoon him with Blanco and hope that Brown makes an appearance sooner rather than later...

 

[Mays-Fan]

141.68 (24 players)


We are not far off; I don't think they'll find anyone for $2MM for that fifth OF spot. I suspect they'll spend more in the $5-6 range to move Blanco to the bench.

Like CC - I was thinking Hairston as the FA OF. RHH, good compliment to LHH Blanco. While I would like a pricier FA OF, I don't think the budget will allow it. Hopefully I am wrong, and if I am, that is where the money should go. But I am fine with Hairston if it means signing Pagan and Pence.

Budget constraints may not allow both Casilla AND Weezy. Romo is a no-brainer.

Buster's extension is a big wild card as well. Obviously they will back-end him like Pablo and Bum, so the 2013 impact remains to be seen.

I'm also guessing it will now take more than 3/27 to keep Pagan, and more than 2/12 to keep Scoots. We could have done those in August or September, but now I don't think so, not with our neighbors to the south looking to expand their payrolls.

Heck, with the WC again and the prospects of Zito and maybe Timmeh dropping off the 2014 payrolls, maybe we'll expand ours up to $150 million.

 

[tzill]

Like CC - I was thinking Hairston as the FA OF. RHH, good compliment to LHH Blanco. While I would like a pricier FA OF, I don't think the budget will allow it. Hopefully I am wrong, and if I am, that is where the money should go. But I am fine with Hairston if it means signing Pagan and Pence.

Budget constraints may not allow both Casilla AND Weezy. Romo is a no-brainer.

Buster's extension is a big wild card as well. Obviously they will back-end him like Pablo and Bum, so the 2013 impact remains to be seen.

I'm also guessing it will now take more than 3/27 to keep Pagan, and more than 2/12 to keep Scoots. We could have done those in August or September, but now I don't think so, not with our neighbors to the south looking to expand their payrolls.

Heck, with the WC again and the prospects of Zito and maybe Timmeh dropping off the 2014 payrolls, maybe we'll expand ours up to $150 million.

I think the plan was to get to 150MM in 2013 irrespective of playoff money. Now, with the WS stash, I think it's a no-brainer. I'm guessing Hairston as well, under the Mark Portugal "if they're on our team they can't beat us" theory.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think the plan was to get to 150MM in 2013 irrespective of playoff money. Now, with the WS stash, I think it's a no-brainer. I'm guessing Hairston as well, under the Mark Portugal "if they're on our team they can't beat us" theory.

I will stipulate re your 2012 total of $131.35 mill. To get to $150 mill would require a 14.2% increase. That seems high irrespective of the impact to future revenues of another (so great to use that word) WC.

I hope you are right - perhaps the revenue flows support $150 mill and more of payroll.

I've heard rumors we are pursuing Khalil Greene as well.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Updated now that Oxy and Scoots are signed:

Major assumptions:

Like baseball-reference.com, bonuses are not amortized over life of contract

FA's:
OF $2.0 for 2013 (Nady / Hairston)
Theriot $1.5
Wilson – non-tendered (much as this breaks my heart)

--------------------------------------------------------------

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $3.6 Arb-2
Casilla $5.4 Arb-3
3 others $4.0 (Mijares/Kontos/Runzler/Hembree/other)

# Bullpen Subtotal $23.25

C/IF (8)

Buster $5.9 Arb-1 or first year of extension
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $6.0 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1
Theriot $1.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $21.6

OF (5)

Pagan $7.0 (4/40)
Pence $13.8 (Arb-4)
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb
Other $2.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/someone)

# OF Subtotal $23.8

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $138.4 (25 players)

 

[ColinCoby]

Updated now that Oxy and Scoots are signed:

Major assumptions:

Like baseball-reference.com, bonuses are not amortized over life of contract

FA's:
OF $2.0 for 2013 (Nady / Hairston)
Theriot $1.5
Wilson – non-tendered (much as this breaks my heart)

--------------------------------------------------------------

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $3.6 Arb-2
Casilla $5.4 Arb-3
3 others $4.0 (Mijares/Kontos/Runzler/Hembree/other)

# Bullpen Subtotal $23.25

C/IF (8)

Buster $5.9 Arb-1 or first year of extension
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $6.0 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $1.0 Arb-1
Theriot $1.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $21.6

OF (5)

Pagan $7.0 (4/40)
Pence $13.8 (Arb-4)
Blanco $0.5 Pre-Arb
Other $2.0 FA
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/someone)

# OF Subtotal $23.8

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $138.4 (25 players)

Thanks man. This is what I was seeking in the other thread. Very close to the projected $140 million.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Fine-tuned for late acquisitions:

Major assumptions:

Like baseball-reference.com, bonuses are not amortized over life of contract

FA's:
Theriot $1.5
Wilson – non-tendered (much as this breaks my heart)

--------------------------------------------------------------

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed
Cain $20.0 fixed
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $67.75

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $3.6 Arb-2
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Mijares $1.6 Arb-2
2 others $1.0 (Kontos/Runzler/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario)

# Bullpen Subtotal $20.95

C/IF (8)

Buster $5.9 Arb-1 or first year of extension
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $6.0 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $0.8 Arb-1
Theriot $1.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $21.4

OF (5)

Pagan $7.0 (4/40)
Pence $13.8 Arb-4
Blanco $1.3 Arb-1
Torres $2.0 fixed
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie)

# OF Subtotal $24.6

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $136.7 (25 players)

 

[tzill]

Fine-tuned for late acquisitions:

Major assumptions:

Like baseball-reference.com, bonuses are not amortized over life of contract

FA's:
Theriot $1.5
Wilson – non-tendered (much as this breaks my heart)

--------------------------------------------------------------

SF Giants Payroll 2013

Starters (5)
Timmy $22.0 fixed --22.25
Cain $20.0 fixed -- 20.83
Zito $20.0 fixed
Vogey $5.0 fixed
Bum $.75 fixed -- 0.95

# Starters Subtotal $67.75 -- 69.03

Bullpen (7)
Lopez $4.25 fixed
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $3.6 Arb-2
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Mijares $1.6 Arb-2
2 others $1.0 (Kontos/Runzler/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario) -- Kontos 0.5, BWeez 3.0

# Bullpen Subtotal $20.95 -- 23.45

C/IF (8)

Buster $5.9 Arb-1 or first year of extension
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $0.5 Pre-Arb
Scutaro $6.0 fixed (3/20) -- 6.67
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $5.7 Fixed
Arias $0.8 Arb-1
Theriot $1.5 FA

# C/IF Subtotal $21.4 -- -- 22.07

OF (5)

Pagan $7.0 (4/40) -- 8.25
Pence $13.8 Arb-4
Blanco $1.3 Arb-1
Torres $2.0 fixed
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie)

# OF Subtotal $24.6

Huff buyout: $2.0

Prelim Total $136.7 (25 players)

-- 141.15

My corrections factoring in signing bonuses and Weez on a $3MM make good contract. This leaves plenty of cash for a deadline FA.

 

[Mays-Fan]

-- 141.15

My corrections factoring in signing bonuses and Weez on a $3MM make good contract. This leaves plenty of cash for a deadline FA.

Hey, I was just treating these like baseball-reference did. Although there appears to be be some disagreement re Pagan's contract. Some sites have it as 4/40, baseball-reference has it as 4/45.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ang...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

 

[tzill]

Hey, I was just treating these like baseball-reference did. Although there appears to be be some disagreement re Pagan's contract. Some sites have it as 4/40, baseball-reference has it as 4/45.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ang...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

Cots lists it at 4/40
8.25/10.25/10.25/11.25

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t4r9nky1EouVJsFXQlv3FKQ&output=html

 

[Mays-Fan]

Cots lists it at 4/40
8.25/10.25/10.25/11.25

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t4r9nky1EouVJsFXQlv3FKQ&output=html

The counter-argument is that it's 7/9/9/10, with a $5 mm bonus that goes against the 2012 books. Cash vs accrual. I hate accrual accounting. It's a CPA's way of creating more billable hours, and making themselves out to be more important than they really are.

 

[gp956]

Hey, I was just treating these like baseball-reference did. Although there appears to be be some disagreement re Pagan's contract. Some sites have it as 4/40, baseball-reference has it as 4/45.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ang...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

If you go to the "details" link next to the 4/45, you'll see baseball-ref has the contract at: 8.25/10.25/10.25/11.25.

 

[Mays-Fan]

If you go to the "details" link next to the 4/45, you'll see baseball-ref has the contract at: 8.25/10.25/10.25/11.25.

Please see my post directly above. It's all how one interprets the $5mm signing bonus, or whatever you want to call the $5mm. Plus, the b-r numbers for Pagan add to 4/40, not 4/45.

"The new contract has a $5MM signing bonus and salaries of $7MM in 2013, $9MM in '14, $9MM in '15, and $10MM in '16, tweets Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/angel_pagan/#SgQqoUjoM3P8fsFq.99


Also, then, there is seemingly an inconsistent treatment at baseball-reference in re to Affeldt's contract vis-a-vis Pagan's. b-r has Affeldt at 3/21, but only shows 6/6/6 for 2013-2015.

And they don't even have Scutaro's up there yet. More inconsistency.

Just saying.

 

[gp956]

Please see my post directly above. It's all how one interprets the $5mm signing bonus, or whatever you want to call the $5mm. Plus, the b-r numbers for Pagan add to 4/40, not 4/45.

"The new contract has a $5MM signing bonus and salaries of $7MM in 2013, $9MM in '14, $9MM in '15, and $10MM in '16, tweets Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com."
Read more at Angel Pagan Rumors: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com


Also, then, there is seemingly an inconsistent treatment at baseball-reference in re to Affeldt's contract vis-a-vis Pagan's. b-r has Affeldt at 3/21, but only shows 6/6/6 for 2013-2015.

And they don't even have Scutaro's up there yet. More inconsistency.

Just saying.

I'm not sure where the disconnect is, I thought you were questioning the "true" price of Pagan's contract, I was simply pointing out that BB-Ref's 4/45 number was an error, since they're own year by year compilation adds to 4/40. Therefore, there is no source who puts the price at 4/45.

As for signing bonuses and how to account for them, you and I have had this discussion previously. BTW, I'd use COTS as my primary source for contract info.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'm not sure where the disconnect is, I thought you were questioning the "true" price of Pagan's contract, I was simply pointing out that BB-Ref's 4/45 number was an error, since they're own year by year compilation adds to 4/40. Therefore, there is no source who puts the price at 4/45.

As for signing bonuses and how to account for them, you and I have had this discussion previously. BTW, I'd use COTS as my primary source for contract info.

Thank you for that reminder, and the COTS reference. The key point was made by Marco, who said that for calculation of the luxury tax, bonuses should be amortized over the length of the contract. Not that we are near the threshhold. You, tzill, and Marco all are correct in thinking this way.

However, for purposes of management strategery and hot stove discussion, as long as we are not near the lux tax limit, I would argue that we look at salary issues as management does, and likely that is on a cash basis (surely there is a set of tax books, but that is not how management decisions are made, that is merely how taxes are filed). The owners are not paying 1/4 of AP's bonus in 2016 - they've already stroked him a check, paid in large part I'm sure from revenue collected because of our WS run. Same with Scoot's bonus, and Cain's, and Affeldt's, and everyone's. Just saying.