Opposite George and Why Aaron Rodgers will Ground the Jets

[averagejoe]

Tom Brady and the Patriots had the distinction of winning the AFC East Division 17 times in 19 seasons. Do you know which active QB had won the next-most division titles behind Brady?

Aaron Charles Rodgers.

Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers won their division 8 times in the last 15 seasons. In all, Rodgers has guided the Packers to 11 playoff appearances in 15 seasons.

Brady appeared in 8 Super Bowls and won 6 of them. Rodgers, however, won in his one and only Super Bowl appearance.

Now some anti-GOAT nay-sayers will claim that Brady capitalized on a weak AFC East division enroute to his historic achievements. In much the same vein, Rodgers has capitalized on a weak NFC North division. That may be where the comparisons end.

While Rodgers has won more division titles than any other active QB, he has just as many championship titles as Matt Stafford, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and Russell Wilson. Ouch.

NY Jets fans are very excited over the signing of Aaron Rodgers. But should they be?

While Rodgers helped guide the Packers to the playoffs in 11 of 15 seasons, Rodgers now finds himself in an arguably much tougher division than the NFC North. In 2022, the Vikings, Lions and Bears ranked 28, 29 and 32 respectively in scoring defense.

In Rodgers’ new AFC East division, the Bills, Patriots and Dolphins ranked 2, 11 and 24 respectively in scoring defense. And if winning in the NFC playoffs was a challenge, can the AFC playoffs be any easier, provided he and the Jets get that far?

Recently, some NFL analysts have made a point of saying that Jordon Love takes over a Packers team that boasts the most complete personnel of offensive players in the NFC North. If that’s true, it may be unsettling to consider that in 2022 Aaron Rodgers had his worst QB rating (91.1) since becoming the starter way back in 2008.

In 2022, Aaron Rodgers finished as the QB13 in fantasy. While some may see this as a glass-half-full ranking, it should be noted that nearly all the QB who finished 14 and lower all missed time with injuries.

For instance, Lamar Jackson was the QB14 despite missing 4 games, yet was only 8 fantasy points behind Rodgers. In fact, had they continued at their pace of play and not missed time, Tua Tagovailoa (QB15), Russell Wilson (QB16), Derek Carr (QB17), Dak Prescott (QB18) and Kyler Murray (QB19) were all on pace to finish ahead of Rodgers last season.

While this is all dependent upon your league scoring rules, in 2022 Rodgers averaged a disappointingly low 14.8 fantasy points per week.

Is Rodgers worth a flier in the later rounds as your fantasy QB2? Absolutely he is. But if you view him as anything more than that, well, take the advice of Rodgers himself and “relax.” And perhaps do a statistical discount double-check while you’re at it.

 

[TREFF]

Agreed %100, to all.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

View attachment 335451

Tom Brady and the Patriots had the distinction of winning the AFC East Division 17 times in 19 seasons. Do you know which active QB had won the next-most division titles behind Brady?

Aaron Charles Rodgers.

Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers won their division 8 times in the last 15 seasons. In all, Rodgers has guided the Packers to 11 playoff appearances in 15 seasons.

Brady appeared in 8 Super Bowls and won 6 of them. Rodgers, however, won in his one and only Super Bowl appearance.

Now some anti-GOAT nay-sayers will claim that Brady capitalized on a weak AFC East division enroute to his historic achievements. In much the same vein, Rodgers has capitalized on a weak NFC North division. That may be where the comparisons end.

While Rodgers has won more division titles than any other active QB, he has just as many championship titles as Matt Stafford, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and Russell Wilson. Ouch.

NY Jets fans are very excited over the signing of Aaron Rodgers. But should they be?

While Rodgers helped guide the Packers to the playoffs in 11 of 15 seasons, Rodgers now finds himself in an arguably much tougher division than the NFC North. In 2022, the Vikings, Lions and Bears ranked 28, 29 and 32 respectively in scoring defense.

In Rodgers’ new AFC East division, the Bills, Patriots and Dolphins ranked 2, 11 and 24 respectively in scoring defense. And if winning in the NFC playoffs was a challenge, can the AFC playoffs be any easier, provided he and the Jets get that far?

Recently, some NFL analysts have made a point of saying that Jordon Love takes over a Packers team that boasts the most complete personnel of offensive players in the NFC North. If that’s true, it may be unsettling to consider that in 2022 Aaron Rodgers had his worst QB rating (91.1) since becoming the starter way back in 2008.

In 2022, Aaron Rodgers finished as the QB13 in fantasy. While some may see this as a glass-half-full ranking, it should be noted that nearly all the QB who finished 14 and lower all missed time with injuries.

For instance, Lamar Jackson was the QB14 despite missing 4 games, yet was only 8 fantasy points behind Rodgers. In fact, had they continued at their pace of play and not missed time, Tua Tagovailoa (QB15), Russell Wilson (QB16), Derek Carr (QB17), Dak Prescott (QB18) and Kyler Murray (QB19) were all on pace to finish ahead of Rodgers last season.

While this is all dependent upon your league scoring rules, in 2022 Rodgers averaged a disappointingly low 14.8 fantasy points per week.

Is Rodgers worth a flier in the later rounds as your fantasy QB2? Absolutely he is. But if you view him as anything more than that, well, take the advice of Rodgers himself and “relax.” And perhaps do a statistical discount double-check while you’re at it.

lets list the top 10 Fantasy QBs doesn't have to be in order just listing them

1. Mahomes
2. Allen
3. Burrow
4. Hurts
5. Fields
6. Lamar
7. Lawrence
8. Herbert
9. Tua
10. Dak

anyone I missed??

I don't think so... that seems good..

after those 10, I don't think anyone has a higher upside, but yet lower floor than Rodgers...


Rodgers will either play to prove something... or continue to decline... I don't see any middle ground with him...

but I can definitely see him being a QB1... and I think it is as good of a bet than any other of the 22 QBs to take either 11 or 12...


and of those other 22 QBs I think Rodgers is the safest bet to be top 5... sure I don't expect any to do it... but really how Is he not the BEST FANTASY pick after those 10... I think I would easily draft him as the 11th... especially since if I am wrong, in most 12 team leagues there will be many QBs to pick from in the waivers.... even if I have to stream... which you are likely doing anyway if you don't have one of those top 10...



IMO the 11 and 12 is Rodgers and Wilson... and both are for the exact same reason...

 

[averagejoe]

Rodgers will either play to prove something... or continue to decline... I don't see any middle ground with him...

I agree.
But he isnt in Green Bay anymore either. What i mean by that is, whether it is subconscious or reality, there is an ora of playing at Lambeau Field. The vibe. The environment. I'm sure Rodgers drew from that. Visiting teams had to account for that.

I dont think East Rutherford, NJ carries that same vibe. And Rodgers strikes me as the personality type that needs that mental stimulous.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I agree.
But he isnt in Green Bay anymore either. What i mean by that is, whether it is subconscious or reality, there is an ora of playing at Lambeau Field. The vibe. The environment. I'm sure Rodgers drew from that. Visiting teams had to account for that.

I dont think East Rutherford, NJ carries that same vibe. And Rodgers strikes me as the personality type that needs that mental stimulous.

There is definitely an ora playing in lambeau that he will lose.

Losing that will be tough. But not sure how strong of ora it is anymore.

He is also a diva. No place better to be a diva than NY. Sure the jets play in New Jersey. But let’s not pretend that the jets or giants are not NY teams.

 

[Trudem]

All I care about is him playing 65% of the snaps. Then he can stub his toe en route to hopefully a winless season

 

[Clayton]

Jets fans should be excited about getting Rodgers. They built a talented roster and flopped at QB.

But yeah...Rodgers in Fantasy is probably a QB2.

 

[Bandit]

I totally agree with you Joe. The one thing I want to see out of this entire season is Rodgers to flop with the Jets. I hope they don't make the playoffs and he gets booed out of the stadium and out of football. It's no secret that I can't stand his selfish ass and hopefully he publicly shits the bed.

 

[BigKen]

Say what you will. Appears Aaron Rogers' head and heart are in the right place. He signed a new 2 year guaranteed contract for $75M. He took a $35M pay cut.

 

[TREFF]

Say what you will. Appears Aaron Rogers' head and heart are in the right place. He signed a new 2 year guaranteed contract for $75M. He took a $35M pay cut.

Meh, yes and no. Year #2 was going to be cut, no matter what he did, or didn't do in this year.
All it truly does is make year 2 a more palatable cap hit for the Jets, take all of what he was originally guaranteed in the Packers deal and spread it out over 5 years. The only thing he "loses" is the non guaranteed part if the original deal...which, without a restructuring, he likely would've never seen anyways.

So yes, he gets to claim being the good guy by 'taking a 35m pay cut', and its not a lie, but in reality he's getting paid every dime he wouldve gotten in the first place

 

[MilkSpiller22]

its all about the narrative you want to believe during the preseason...

But i can easily write a believeable narrative that would be pro-Rodgers... and it would just be as likely as anything else at this point in time...

With Breece Hall not 100%, a team that normally has always wanted to be a run first offense does not have the talent to do so, and with Rodgers, who has been angry with the packers never giving him the talent at WR, he wants to show the football world what he can do with a deep WR corp... Rodgers takes the Jets on his back, and throws the ball 35+ times per game, and averages 250 yds and 2 TDs per game...

 

[TREFF]

its all about the narrative you want to believe during the preseason...

But i can easily write a believeable narrative that would be pro-Rodgers... and it would just be as likely as anything else at this point in time...

With Breece Hall not 100%, a team that normally has always wanted to be a run first offense does not have the talent to do so, and with Rodgers, who has been angry with the packers never giving him the talent at WR, he wants to show the football world what he can do with a deep WR corp... Rodgers takes the Jets on his back, and throws the ball 35+ times per game, and averages 250 yds and 2 TDs per game...

That's 4250 and 24, perfectly reasonable expectations given Rodgers pedigree. And should be the minimum that the Jets are expecting

 

[sharkymcwrath]

All those years in Green Bay and Rodgers gets to and wins one Super Bowl. One. Those teams had great offenses and great defenses. Now he’s going to go to the Jets, that are not as good on offense or defense, and now he’s going to win Super Bowls? LMAO! Sure.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

That's 4250 and 24, perfectly reasonable expectations given Rodgers pedigree. And should be the minimum that the Jets are expecting

but point is that that is top 10 QB...

and you had a typo... it is 34 not 24

 

[MilkSpiller22]

All those years in Green Bay and Rodgers gets to and wins one Super Bowl. One. Those teams had great offenses and great defenses. Now he’s going to go to the Jets, that are not as good on offense or defense, and now he’s going to win Super Bowls? LMAO! Sure.

and that is the other narrative... an old declining QB who is not really a WINNER, has a chance with a team he has never played with, with players he is mostly uncomfortable with and are not as well established, with a coaching staff he doesnt know that well(even with the jets doing whatever they could to make Rodgers more comfortable)... in a division that is harder than he has ever faced....

how can he succeed??

 

[TREFF]

but point is that that is top 10 QB...

and you had a typo... it is 34 not 24

nope not a typo..just bad math in my head. But I do appreciate the effort to cover for me

And it had damned well better be top 10, would place him #8 in yards and number 4 in TD's last year. Only issue would be where inside the top 10 after Lamar, Allen, Fields, Hurts, get their rushing game bumps that would push him out of the top 5, and any other surprises from 'the field'

 

[MilkSpiller22]

nope not a typo..just bad math in my head. But I do appreciate the effort to cover for me

And it had damned well better be top 10, would place him #8 in yards and number 4 in TD's last year. Only issue would be where inside the top 10 after Lamar, Allen, Fields, Hurts, get their rushing game bumps that would push him out of the top 5, and any other surprises from 'the field'

its hard to make a point when my posts are fragmented...LOL...

i am just saying he SHOULD be drafted as a QB1... i have him as the 11th QB... Not because i believe he will be what i said, but i just see him to be the most likely of the OTHER 22 QBs to be a top 10 if not top 5 QB this season...

and after the top 10 in ADP, there is no clear choice... I would rather be WRONG about Rodgers and have to drop him, than to take a similar chance on Wilson, Carr, Cousins, or any other of the potential QBs in that range...

if i am not getting a top 10 QB, and i am wrong about Rodgers, there will be many available on waivers... and i can stream... it is not the worst thing ever...

so why not take a risk on Rodgers as a QB1??

now if the league is bigger than 12 teams or is a superflex(or 2 QB league)... all that would mean, is that i would draft a second QB earlier, and not rely on waivers or streaming to FIX my mistake...

 

[eaglesnut]

Recently, some NFL analysts have made a point of saying that Jordon Love takes over a Packers team that boasts the most complete personnel of offensive players in the NFC North.

What analysts? This is an awful take by them.

Jefferson, St.Brown, Moore

Davante Adams fits in that group, but not the trash from last year.

You know who else fits in that group? Garrett Wilson

 

[TREFF]

its hard to make a point when my posts are fragmented...LOL...

i am just saying he SHOULD be drafted as a QB1... i have him as the 11th QB... Not because i believe he will be what i said, but i just see him to be the most likely of the OTHER 22 QBs to be a top 10 if not top 5 QB this season...

and after the top 10 in ADP, there is no clear choice... I would rather be WRONG about Rodgers and have to drop him, than to take a similar chance on Wilson, Carr, Cousins, or any other of the potential QBs in that range...

if i am not getting a top 10 QB, and i am wrong about Rodgers, there will be many available on waivers... and i can stream... it is not the worst thing ever...

so why not take a risk on Rodgers as a QB1??

now if the league is bigger than 12 teams or is a superflex(or 2 QB league)... all that would mean, is that i would draft a second QB earlier, and not rely on waivers or streaming to FIX my mistake...

well I'm still not entirely %100 on what point you're attempting to make..
however...

once you get past the 5-7 'locks' for the top ten, I would rather place a wager on Rodgers than many of the other 'worthy' candidates. And my guess is that due to his relatively awful numbers last year, and recency bias,, he can likely be drafted much later than many of those other 'worthy candidates' For whatever that is worth in the discussion.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

well I'm still not entirely %100 on what point you're attempting to make..
however...

once you get past the 5-7 'locks' for the top ten, I would rather place a wager on Rodgers than many of the other 'worthy' candidates. And my guess is that due to his relatively awful numbers last year, and recency bias,, he can likely be drafted much later than many of those other 'worthy candidates' For whatever that is worth in the discussion.

again fragmented...LOL

Joe's OP is anti Rodgers and the last line is
"Is Rodgers worth a flier in the later rounds as your fantasy QB2? Absolutely he is. But if you view him as anything more than that, well, take the advice of Rodgers himself and “relax.” And perhaps do a statistical discount double-check while you’re at it."


i think i went through 7 posts just to express how i disagree with this last line... And how IMO he should be the 11th QB drafted...

basically i did an awesome job!!!