"Official" 2012 Pirates' W-L Prediction Thread

[Darkstone42]

Also, I went ahead and stickied this thread so it's easy for you to find when you feel like updating it, mags.

 

[magnumo]

It's a Price Is Right joke.

OK..... thanks for that, Darkstone. Still don't get the connection though.

 

[dare2be]

Well, being late to the party, I couldn't make a legitimate prediction, so I went with a TPIR joke instead.

Considering how the pitching seems to have started falling off a cliff again, I'd put in a 86-76 prediction, just missing the playoffs.

 

[steelparrot]

I have no objections to this thread getting pinned

 

[thedddd]

It's a Price Is Right joke.

Funny I didn't get it until you mentioned that.

Anyway I can honestly say I that I am completely happy with the fact that I blew at the prediction this year.

 

[magnumo]

Also, I went ahead and stickied this thread so it's easy for you to find when you feel like updating it, mags.

OK, Darkstone..... thanks for that.

 

[magnumo]

- With the Pirates' win #62 this evening, we have our first mathematical elimination (me) from the contest.

- With the Pirates' season exactly 2/3 complete, the team's record stands at 62-46 (.574), which projects to a record of 93-69.

- In fact, the team would need to go 18-36 (or worse) over the final third of the season to keep the CLS (current losing streak) alive.

At any rate, here are the 19 remaining contestants. Obviously, steelparrot remains the closest to the Bucs' projected finish. After each contestant's name, I have added the Pirates' W-L performance (from here on out) which would result in that contestant winning the contest:

88-74 steelparrot...(26-28)
87-75 thecrow124...(25-29)
84-78 pixburgher66...(22-32)
83-79 Darkstone42...(21-33)
82-80 sychmd...(20-34)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(19-35)
80-82 Burns80y...(18-36)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(17-37)
76-86 rmilia1...(14-40)
75-87 element1286...(13-41)
74-88 stillmatic32...(12-42)
73-89 evolver115...(11-43)
72-90 powwow35...(10-44)
71-91 Illinest...(9-45)
70-92 sloshyklu...(8-46)
69-93 thedddd...(7-47)
68-94 Forty_Sixand2...(6-48)
67-95 TheBurgh88...(5-49)
63-99 WVUinVegas...(1-53)

A couple of obvious observations:

- Most of the remaining candidates don't have much of a chance.

- If the Bucs play just .500 ball the rest of the way, they will finish at 89-73, which would mean that nobody wins (the contest)..... while all Pirate fans will have good reason for celebration.

 

[magnumo]

With the Pirates' win #64 today, WVUinVegas has been mathematically eliminated. The Pirates are now on pace for a 91-71 record. Steelparrot remains the closest to that projected finish:

88-74 steelparrot...(24-24)
87-75 thecrow124...(23-25)
84-78 pixburgher66...(20-28)
83-79 Darkstone42...(19-29)
82-80 sychmd...(18-30)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(17-31)
80-82 Burns80y...(16-32)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(15-33)
76-86 rmilia1...(12-36)
75-87 element1286...(11-37)
74-88 stillmatic32...(10-38)
73-89 evolver115...(9-39)
72-90 powwow35...(8-40)
71-91 Illinest...(7-41)
70-92 sloshyklu...(6-42)
69-93 thedddd...(5-43)
68-94 Forty_Sixand2...(4-44)
67-95 TheBurgh88...(3-45)

 

[WVUinVegas]

With the Pirates' win #64 today, WVUinVegas has been mathematically eliminated.

I've never been more happy to have been dead wrong!

 

[dare2be]

I'm adjusting my mid-season 86-76 prediction down to 80-82, with a sweep of the Bucs on the last weekend.

 

[magnumo]

I've never been more happy to have been dead wrong!

As the only contestant to be mathematically eliminated BEFORE you, I can say sincerely..... SAME HERE!

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates have just passed the 3/4 pole of their season (122 games played and 40 to go) with a record of 67-55 (.549). If they finish the season at that pace, their final record will be 89-73..... just one game better than steelparrot's prediction..... so he remains "closest" to winning the contest. Here are the remaining contestants. The numbers in parentheses show the won-lost performance of the Pirates in their remaining games which will make each contestant a winner.

88-74 steelparrot...(21-19)
87-75 thecrow124...(20-20)
84-78 pixburgher66...(17-23)
83-79 Darkstone42...(16-24)
82-80 sychmd...(15-25)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(14-26)
80-82 Burns80y...(13-27)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(12-28)
76-86 rmilia1...(9-31)
75-87 element1286...(8-32)
74-88 stillmatic32...(7-33)
73-89 evolver115...(6-34)
72-90 powwow35...(5-35)
71-91 Illinest...(4-36)
70-92 sloshyklu...(3-37)
69-93 thedddd...(2-38)
68-94 Forty_Sixand2...(1-39)
67-95 TheBurgh88...(0-40)

 

[magnumo]

After the series loss to the Brewers, the Pirates find themselves at 68-59 (.535) with 35 games to play. Their 68th win mathematically eliminated TheBurgh88 from the contest.

- If the Pirates sustain their current pace (.535), they will finish the season at 87-75, which puts thecrow124 in the driver's seat.

- If the Pirates play .500 ball between now and season's end, they will finish the season at 86-76.

- If they continue the pace at which they've played since the 100-game mark, they will finish the season at 81-81.

- The Pirates need to play at least .400 ball (14-21) from here on out to finish with a winning season (82-80).

Here are the remaining contestants:

88-74 steelparrot...(20-15)
87-75 thecrow124...(19-16)
84-78 pixburgher66...(16-19)
83-79 Darkstone42...(15-20)
82-80 sychmd...(14-21)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(13-22)
80-82 Burns80y...(12-23)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(11-24)
76-86 rmilia1...(8-27)
75-87 element1286...(7-28)
74-88 stillmatic32...(6-29)
73-89 evolver115...(5-30)
72-90 powwow35...(4-31)
71-91 Illinest...(3-32)
70-92 sloshyklu...(2-33)
69-93 thedddd...(1-34)
68-94 Forty_Sixand2...(0-35)

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates take 2 of 3 from the Cards, leaving their record at 70-60 (.538) with 32 games to play. Those two wins have mathematically eliminated Forty_Sixand2 and thedddd from the contest.

- If the Pirates sustain their .538 pace between now and season's end, they will finish at 87-75, keeping thecrow124 in the driver's seat.

- The Pirates must win at least 12 of their remaining 32 games to have a winning season.

The 15 remaining contestants:

88-74 steelparrot...(18-14)
87-75 thecrow124...(17-15)
84-78 pixburgher66...(14-18)
83-79 Darkstone42...(13-29)
82-80 sychmd...(12-20)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(11-21)
80-82 Burns80y...(10-22)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(9-23)
76-86 rmilia1...(6-26)
75-87 element1286...(5-27)
74-88 stillmatic32...(4-28)
73-89 evolver115...(3-29)
72-90 powwow35...(2-30)
71-91 Illinest...(1-31)
70-92 sloshyklu...(0-32)

 

[Illinest]

I'm still in it.

 

[magnumo]

Another series in the can, and it's time for another update. Since the Bucs were swept by the Brewers, no additional contestants have been mathematically eliminated.

The Pirates stand at 70-63 (.526). If they maintain that pace through season's end, they will finish at 85-77. The closest participant to that record is pixburgher66.

The Pirates have gone 12-21 (.364) since the 100-game mark. If they maintain that pace through season's end, they will finish at (barely) 81-81. They must go 12-17 from here on out to have a winning season. Don't look now, but the Brewers (+23) have passed the Pirates (+13) in terms of run differential.

Here are the remaining contestants, with the record from here on out which will give each a victory in the contest:

88-74 steelparrot...(18-11)
87-75 thecrow124...(17-12)
84-78 pixburgher66...(14-15)
83-79 Darkstone42...(13-16)
82-80 sychmd...(12-17)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(11-18)
80-82 Burns80y...(10-19)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(9-20)
76-86 rmilia1...(6-23)
75-87 element1286...(5-24)
74-88 stillmatic32...(4-25)
73-89 evolver115...(3-26)
72-90 powwow35...(2-27)
71-91 Illinest...(1-28)
70-92 sloshyklu...(0-29)

 

[dare2be]

sloshyklu has been hanging on for the last 3 days...

 

[pixburgher66]

BUT I DON'T WANNA WIN! I WANT TO WIN!

 

[magnumo]

The Bucs take 2 of 3 from Houston, leaving their record at 72-64 (.529), and mathematically eliminating Illinest and sloshyklu from the contest.

72-64 projects to 86-76 at season's end, putting thecrow124 back as closest.

.500 from here on out projects to 85-77.

Continuing their pace since the 100-game mark (14-22/.389), they finish at 82-80.

The 13 remaining contestants:

88-74 steelparrot...(16-10)
87-75 thecrow124...(15-11)
84-78 pixburgher66...(12-14)
83-79 Darkstone42...(11-15)
82-80 sychmd...(10-16)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(9-17)
80-82 Burns80y...(8-18)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(7-19)
76-86 rmilia1...(4-22)
75-87 element1286...(3-23)
74-88 stillmatic32...(2-24)
73-89 evolver115...(1-25)
72-90 powwow35...(0-26)

 

[magnumo]

Swept at home by the Cubs, the Pirates now stand at 72-67 (.518) with 23 games left to play.

72-67 projects to 84-78 at season's end, putting pixburgher66 in the sweet spot.

If they continue their pace since the 100-game mark (14-25/.359), they will finish at 80-82.

We still have 13 remaining contestants:

88-74 steelparrot...(16-7)
87-75 thecrow124...(15-8)
84-78 pixburgher66...(12-11)
83-79 Darkstone42...(11-12)
82-80 sychmd...(10-13)
81-81 NorthCoastSteelersFan...(9-14)
80-82 Burns80y...(8-15)
79-83 smokeyburgess...(7-16)
76-86 rmilia1...(4-19)
75-87 element1286...(3-20)
74-88 stillmatic32...(2-21)
73-89 evolver115...(1-22)
72-90 powwow35...(0-23)