Numbers

[JohnU]

13th in hitting,
12th in pitching,
1st in our hearts, right?

 

[ckhokie]

Yeesh. How bad are they compared to the whole League?

 

[JohnU]

Low run totals and high ERA would almost without exception mean the team doesn't win anything.
I think there was only one team in recent years (Arizona maybe) that was outscored for the season and still won the title. But if you have a couple of stud pitchers, you might pull it off. The Reds do not have that.
It's too early to attach much importance to team numbers. The team ERA is clearly the fault of the bullpen.

 

[chico ruiz]

in reading many of the posts on this board, over the last few years, there's been a tendency to talk about the bullpen as a afterthought. you can plug in whoever whenever. they are all failed or frustrated starters. my personal favorite and one i read a lot; anyone of five different guys could handle the closer's role. some of that was understandable, because many of us, after interesting informed debate on this very board, wanted to see chapman in the starting rotation. but, the premise was flawed and still is. if you watched any of the kc royals games last year it was obvious what the linchpin of their success was. if a starter got through 6 innings with a lead the game was over. put it in the 'w' column for kansas city. actually, 5 innings with a lead would do. herrera, davis, and holland.

the reds had been blessed with a good bullpen from 2010 till mid-season 2014. injuries played a role, as always, in the collapse of this extremely important part of the team. price's pitching coach inclinations played a part. now he's sending telegraphs to opposing managers that he will use cingrani more as the set-up hurler. "the time may have come now where, regardless of who's coming up, lefty or righty, he gets the opportunity," Price said. "I think it's time." does this sound like a confident manager to anyone? forget confident, how about decisive? desperate? naive? yes mr. price, the time MAY have come.

i feel you john. for me, it's like the five stages of grieving. as far as i can tell, i'm wrestling with 'anger,' 'bargaining,' and 'depression' simultaneously. there's another element that's got me by the balls: confusion. i'm literally scratching my head with respect to the entire organization.

but, i'm wondering what the apparent urgency was in trading alfredo simon. i'll give them a pass, for the time being, on the latos deal, although i would love to see boxberger in a reds uniform. latos was going to command roughly 10 million for 2015, so i get it. but, simon was going to be roughly 5 million for this year. that's getting close to what the reds are paying marquis, gregg, and boesch combined. you can also throw badenhop in that salary / contract mix. i'm trying to think through these trades / signings, from a organizational POV, and find the upside without beating up jocketty. suarez is struggling at louisville and crawford hasn't thrown a pitch. part of the rationale given by wally was that he wanted cozart to have competition in spring camp. is there anybody else on this board that finds that to be insufficient explanation?

when i get to 'acceptance' -which i think some posters have- you probably won't hear from me again, and i likely won't be missed.

 

[redsfan03]

The hitting is what gets me. Wasn't there supposed to be a philosophy change in this organization after Dusty was kicked to the curb? This is still the free swinging, swing for the fences, no fundamental hitting that plagued us during the Dusty years. This team still lives and dies by the long ball, leaves boatloads of runners on base, and strikes out at an alarming rate.

The pitching was expected to take a step back with the losses of Latos and Simon, but I think most people expected the hitting to improve this year. Instead, it's same old, same old.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'm not sure why anyone thought this team was going to improve in it's fundamental approach. This team's offensive approach is exactly what they are drafting, developing, and promoting to the Majors. By comparison the Cardinals are drafting apples and making apple pie, the Reds are drafting lemons. The obvious thought process from the Reds was that health meant an upgrade in offense, but all the same it's still lemon pie.

 

[eburg5000]

This is the worst Bullpen that I can remember. I'm sure that there have been worse maybe in the early 80's, then again they didn't need a bullpen in 82, they never had the lead.
I agree with Chico, on Simon, never saw the need to trade him.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Chico makes an excellent point with the Simon trade and subsequent moves.

Make no mistake....the trades had everything to do with shaving payroll and nothing to do with improving this year's team. Then Jocketty sends mixed messages with the acquisitions made afterwards. You're either trimming payroll and rebuilding or adding complimentary pieces to win now unless you have a loaded and ready farm system. The Reds accomplished neither.

Jocketty can make a case for signing Badenhop based on last year's performance, but only a fool would attempt to do likewise with Gregg and Marquis. They both signed minor league deals and that's where they should be proving whether or not they deserve another chance.

The last couple months of 2014 were spent looking at the perspective short term pitching solutions. If none of the above was Jocketty's final answer for at least one SP and bullpen additions.....that's enough of a indictment for the GM to be fired. He can't say he didn't know the vacancies were inevitable and demonstrates a failed farm system strategy.

The Phillies are paying $4M for Byrd to play for another team....enough said on that topic.

 

[JohnU]

I think we can save ourselves a lot of grief and cash this one in.
Remember, the rainout will be made up with a 26th man pitcher -- and god knows he can't be as good as what we have. So that's effectively a sweep by the Cubs.

 

[JohnU]

I will re-assert my philosophy on a bullpen. ANY major league pitcher should be able to get 3 hitters out. The odds are somewhere around 77 percent of that happening to any given inning.
There are problems with that since -- sandwiched among the three outs -- there are sometimes a couple of walks, a bloop double, a screamer into the corner, a shot that one-hops the infield and rolls to the fence.
So doubling back on my philosophy ... any major league pitcher SHOULD be able to get 3 hitters out.
There are a lot of variables to that and part of it plays into whether his team has a lead, or if he's inheriting runners, is getting squeezed, has a bad hop break, or an error, a crappy call on the bases that doesn't get overturned ....
Off and on, a pitcher will have that sort of game. It's why nobody ever wins much more than 6 out of 10 games.
When an entire bullpen has this problem more often than not, the odds of winning really are suddenly out of bounds.
Continuing to ask these really bad pitchers to perform depends on the manager's options. In this case, he has none.
Pertaining to the Reds bullpen, of the lot, Jimbo Diaz probably could close out games at about league average. Nobody else ought to even get the chance.

 

[JohnU]

I think, as well, it's time the Reds stopped fucking around worrying about whether $11 million or $5 million is too much, not enough, or just right to pay a guy.
For a lot of fans, what we'd rather see is a competitive team. In a dozen years, it's not going to matter how much we saved by trading Chris Heisey. What will matter is that the team will finish 4th or 5th and still another generation will have to endure that because it's clear the makeup of the front office and the organization has nothing resembling a plan -- long or short range.

 

[eburg5000]

If the Phillies are paying most of Byrds salary, Then why won't the Reds send him packing. Any minor league, college, or even high school player can stand out in left field.

 

[eburg5000]

John, I'd like to give you a thumbs up on that last post but I don't know how. It seems not to be an option anymore

 

[eburg5000]

never mind I found it

 

[JohnU]

I was listening to Pat Hughes, the Cubs announcer, on the radio on my way around town and he was saying how well Marlon Byrd was seeing the ball. That was right after Marlon took a pitch just off the plate for ball 2. Byrd struck out swinging on the next pitch.

I guess he sees the ball OK, just can't hit it.

 

[JohnU]

 

[Redsfan1507]

I find it a bit ironic that the Reds overlook paying several million for pitchers that don't pitch (Madson, Lincoln, Marshall) and pinch hitters that don't hit (Hannahan, Cairo, maybe Boesch is next) and will drop $13M on a guy like Ludwick (or $8M on Byrd), then have to shave a few Mil on Broxton, Heisey, Simon, etc. I don't know what Marquis and Gregg are making, but I bet combined, it may be close to Latos' salary, and (not missing him), guess what ? They're probably not going to be here after this season, just like Latos, except we won't get a supplemental pick when they're gone.

The contracts they've already signed are sunk costs the rest of the roster has to compensate for to meet payroll/profit limits. I get that. I'm sure other teams have similar misses, but it seems like the Reds tend to waste about as much as they gain. Maybe more.

This team kind of plays like the organization- randomly haphazard. When they pitch, they do dont hit. D is spectacular then gives up 4 unearned out of the blue. Chapman was signed with the intent of starting, and every year until this year some front office act or injury relegated him to close. I don't blame Corcino for bitching about not making this pitching staff, or the Dodgers for claiming him. I don't care if Marquis tosses 175 innings of 5.00 ERA losing baseball, or if Gregg does as well (or bad) as Hoover or Parra, or if Byrd hits like Ludwick, because it doesn't improve the team, or provide basis for optimism it will improve them in the future...unless to spin that Winkler, Lorenzen and whoever is next on the prospect list, is going to be better next year because they got another year in Peoria this year.

IMO, the Dusty move was cutting cost too, and making a move to give the impression the front office wasn't happy with complacent mediocrity, even if their budget tells them that's what we'll get. Hamilton and others might have gotten more play with Price, but otherwise, I still see BP in the 4 hole hitting no out DP's instead of sacs, and Bruce missing at breaking balls and taking fastballs. We still have too many old retreads and LOOGY's that walk leadoff hitters and give up HR to the next bad matchup, so Price isn't the only guy to blame there, it's a team effort to be this bad.

Lets see what the Cardinals do after losing Wainwright. I already saw them keep winning after losing Carpenter, LaRussa, Duncan, Pujols, Craig, Taveras, and even Yadier last year. They seem to figure it out. Maybe there is a lesson to learn, huh ?

 

[JohnU]

The best I see is a stretch where the team wins 8 out of 12 and convinces itself it has a chance.
These guys are not built to win the long season. Even if the Reds are in contention in September, it's Cueto, maybe another lucky no-hitter from Bailey and ... Leake might give us a few good innings. If Cueto pitches, he will lose 3 games by a total score of 5-3.
After that, Desclafani's innings limit is hit, Bruce will still be hitting .218 and Votto will be hobbling along because the dugout staff can't afford to give him a day off.
The Reds are one hammy pull away from 90 losses.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Mesoraco might have already done that. There is no cleanup hitter on this team unless he can put up numbers like last year...and play 30 more games than last year...and that knowledge might have contributed to his current condition- catching every game for a week, getting a couple of innings off before relieving Pena's leadoff Shamu impersonation. If Meso was the ot option for #4, you might wonder why they didnt experiment with Meso as an OF in ST. Might not have made a difference, but just saying in case Jay Bruce or BP didnt change anything from last years pitiful performance, might wanna think about Plan B.

 

[eburg5000]

This team hasn't changed much sence the day dust took over as manager. They still do the same things. Getting real tiring as far as I am concerned.

The only way change will come is when there is a lot of empty seats. And that is probably be coming sooner than later.