Make a case on why your team will be a contender in 2015

[Chewbaccer]

Mine will be harder than most, but this is more or less for fun.

You don't have to believe your team will be in contention, just make a case why they could be.

For the Braves, let's start with the pitching staff.

Julio Tehran and Alex Wood are young studs that will have another year of experience under their belt. Both have been effective in their young careers and they should be on an upward trend.

Then you throw in the addition of Shelby Miller and a Mike Minor that is a year removed from a very solid season and was pitching hurt most of the season last year, and we have a very solid first 4 starters. Our fifth starter will be a bit iffy. It'll either be a rookie(Mike Foltynewitz or Manny Banuelos) or a veteran(Eric Stults, Wandy Rodriguez or Chien Ming Wang.)

Personally, I think one of the veterans wins the 5th starter job, probably Stults or Rodriguez. Remember last season when everyone thought Aaron Harang was done? One veteran in the rotation is needed IMO. If for nothing else, a player-coach type for the young guns in the rotation.

For the bullpen, we had arguably the best in baseball in 2013. It fell apart last season.

We kept Kimbrel, but got rid of an injury prone Jordan Walden and a struggling David Carpenter and added some veterans with closing experience to fill the gap.

Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson and Jose Veras all have closing experience, and now they don't have the pressure of closing the game unless Kimbrel needs a day off.

Will the bull pen be the dominant force it was in 2013? Probably not. Is it better than last season's? I think it is.

Our pitching staff is good enough to keep us in the hunt if we can get anything out of our offense.

Now on to that offense.


Yeah, we traded Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis away.

Yeah, they accounted for most of our home run production, but they also accounted for 45% of our strikeouts last season.

Keep in mind, our offense was ranked 29th in baseball, so it's not like we tore apart a juggernaut.

We should see a team with more productive outs, more manufactured runs, more small ball, and a lot less strikeouts.

At catcher we replace Evan Gattis with rookie Christian Bethancourt. Will Bethancourt be the instant offense threat that Gattis was? I doubt it, but I'm willing to bet that he'll be better at moving a runner from second to third, or getting that sac fly, and he won't have to do much to be better defensively.

His backup will either be AJ Pierzynski or John Buck, so he'll have some good teachers as well.

At first base, we have Freddie Freeman. He was our best offensive player last season IMO, and he'll be hitting third all season.

Second base will be interesting. Phil Gosselin played well in his short time in the majors last season, and I think he starts the year as the starter. He's a contact hitter with speed, and that's exactly what we need.

At short, we have Andrelton Simmons. He's the best defensive short stop in the game. We just need him to focus on contact and not the long ball, but whatever he does offensively, his production with the glove makes him very valuable.

Third base is Chris Johnson. Remember that .321 he hit in 2013? Yeah, that went down a bit last season, but I have confidence that he can be closer to his 2013 self than his 2014 self. Especially if we don't put him in the cleanup spot.

Left field, it's either gonna be Jonny Gomes or Eric Young Jr. If it's Gomes, we get a hard worker with a winning history and a good guy to have around the clubhouse. If it's Young, we finally have a leadoff man where a walk is basically a double.

Center field is Melvin Upton Jr. I can't talk him up. He accounted for the other 65% of our strikeouts last season and has shown nothing to me. At least he answered the phone when the hitting coach called this off season. If he hits .225, I'll take it.

Right field is Nick Markakis. A contact hitter with Gold Glove defense, and a hometown kid. He's the perfect fit for this new look offense.

Will our offense be the best in the Majors? I highly doubt it, but I do have confidence that they can score more runs than the team that ranked 29th in that department last season, and hit better with RISP than the team that ranked last in that department last season.

Remember, we were in first place most of the season last year and were in the mix until September.

Our pitching staff should be improved all the way around, and it won't take much to out do our offensive output last season. We'll be a small ball team, but after last season's disaster, that's just what we need to be.

A wild card spot is within our reach.

 

[calsnowskier]

The task at hand is only why the team could be a contender, right? Not why they SHOULD make the playoffs?

Some teams are easier here than others...

1) You are the champ until you are not. Until a new team wins the World Series, the Giants hold the moniker of "Best team", accurate or not.

2) The team made the playoffs last year, and the personnel this year is very similar to last years team.

We lost two "key" players (Sandoval and Morse), but their replacements should only be slight negative net (Aoki should be a rather significant plus while McGehee should be a significant minus).

However, the Giants were hit by injuries last year (who wasn't?). Cain will be returning and the surgery he had supposedly fixed some long-running issues that he had. Belt was placed on the DL twice with freakish injuries (hit in the hand by a pitch then hit in the face by a thrown ball during pre-game fielding practice) that should not be indicators of his fragility. Pagan had back surgery last year, but he is back (realistically, he is still a huge question mark).

They also added two significant pieces late in the season last year that should be available for the entire year in '15. Peavy was acquired at the trade deadline and performed like a 1 during the regular season after coming over. Panik took over the 2B job at about the same time and performed like a veteran both with the bat and the glove. He should hold down the position for us for the next 6 years.

3) 3 Legit superstars

Bumgarner, Posey and Pence.

The rotation is clearly not what it was in '10 or '12, but it still has one of the game's elite at the top.

Posey is the face of MLB. With Jeter's retirement, he currently holds the "Captain" title in the game. Further, he is considered, AT WORST, one of the game's best catchers.

Pence quietly had a HUGE World Series, and if not for Bum, likely would have won MVP (yes, above Sandoval). He is also a guy you can pencil in for 162 games in right (although this year, he does plan on taking a few games off) He is the energy-heart and soul of the team.



LA and San Diego appear to both have legit teams that will make getting to the playoffs from the West tough. But there are no knowledgeable fans that would SERIOUSLY say the Giants are not AT LEAST a contender in 2015.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Great points. While it's easy to make a case for the defending champs, the Padres have vastly improved and the Dodgers are strong.

Only real argument against the Giants is their feast in even years, famine in odd years recent trend. Pulling for yall in the West.

 

[calsnowskier]

Great points. While it's easy to make a case for the defending champs, the Padres have vastly improved and the Dodgers are strong.

Only real argument against the Giants is their feast in even years, famine in odd years recent trend. Pulling for yall in the West.

That's why I clarified at the beginning why I am making the case for the Giants to be a "contender". I am not making the case for them winning the West or, really, even making the playoffs at all. I think that could be any of the 3 teams.

The more I am thinking about the Padres, though, the more I am placing them as the #3 team in the division. Their defense will be hysterically-bad. Further, Kemp had a bounce-back in '14, but he is still injury prone and his offense was non-existent in '13. I like Myers AS A PROSPECT, but he is not a player yet. He had a 77 OPS+ in '14. Ouch!! Middlebrooks MAY be good, but there is a reason the Sox gave up on him. He had a 48 OPS in '14. 48!!!! And everyone looks at their additions and completely ignores what was there beforehand (not a whole-hell-of-a-lot). Gyorko had a 79 OPS+, and he was expected to be one of their big bats.

 

[Chewbaccer]

That's why I clarified at the beginning why I am making the case for the Giants to be a "contender". I am not making the case for them winning the West or, really, even making the playoffs at all. I think that could be any of the 3 teams.

The more I am thinking about the Padres, though, the more I am placing them as the #3 team in the division. Their defense will be hysterically-bad. Further, Kemp had a bounce-back in '14, but he is still injury prone and his offense was non-existent in '13. I like Myers AS A PROSPECT, but he is not a player yet. He had a 77 OPS+ in '14. Ouch!! Middlebrooks MAY be good, but there is a reason the Sox gave up on him. He had a 48 OPS in '14. 48!!!! And everyone looks at their additions and completely ignores what was there beforehand (not a whole-hell-of-a-lot). Gyorko had a 79 OPS+, and he was expected to be one of their big bats.

I never pick a team that adds a lot of big pieces until they prove they can win. The Marlins a few years ago, the Blue Jays the year after that. These days, it's hard to buy a World Series. The Dodgers have done well since their big moves, but haven't had much playoff success.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Ultra Royals Homer Argument

• A Bumgarner away from a ring; they're the AL Champs ( by virtue of sweep mind you) for a reason
• Best defense in baseball
• fastest team in baseball; and they aren't afraid to let you know about it on the basepaths.

• still latent offensive upside in the up and down the lineup to round out the position players portfolio

1. 1. Rios was a steady offensive force as late as the year before last. The demise of Alex Rios is over-exaggerated.
   2. Morales woes were related to disruption in timing that can be traced to being a very late signing; Stephen Drew suffered a similar fate in his late signing last year.
   3. Hosmer has been up and down offensively, but turned on the jets to end the season, maybe he puts it all together this year.
   4. Perez is also a candidate to bounce bounce from his sub 100 wRC+ after a record breaking workload in 2014.
      
   5. Infante dealt with injuries much of the year, and Christian Colon looked capable at 2B if Infante repeats the DL parade.

• The continued development of Yordano Ventura in his sophomore year
• Duffy will continue to dominate LHB's
• Theory: Volquez was signed by the Pirates as his skillset in a neutral plane is crap, but from a defensive analytic perspective, you can goad some hyper inflated numbers using the shift as evidenced by his 2014 season. The Pirates have been high on defensive analytics for years, so it's just speculation on my part.
• Hochevar and Frasor make the Bullpen even better
• PECOTA hater
• We actually have a UIF this year... Christian Colon.

 

[broncosmitty]

I could make this complicated, but i wont.

Miguel Cabrera.

 

[Wazmankg]

I could make this complicated, but i wont.

Miguel Cabrera.

Hopefully he'll be healthy all year for a change... and Victor will too... and JV is not in the throes of irreversible decline. That's pretty much it as far as them being a contender.... as for their shot at actually winning it all, that would take a much longer post.

 

[gunnarthor]

Twins case - first off, the offense was surprisingly solid last year. Finished 5th in runs despite a crap year from Mauer. Assuming he has a bit of a bounceback, they have some solid pieces on offense and some depth there. Oswaldo Arcia will have a break out season - he's a really underrated hitter but he'll finish in the top 10 in homers this season. Their offense is sort of underrated b/c it doesn't do anything great but doesn't suck at anything either so nothing ends up standing out. But it was a solid lineup. They have some depth so regression from some of these guys can be minimized by others. A big wildcard is Aaron Hicks - he seemed to have issues under Gardy but new manager Molitor and Torii Hunter might help him adjust to the majors better. As bad as he was last year, he did manage a .340 OBP.

The pitching was a disaster. Assuming Hughes and Gibson can combine for roughly the same value of production (Huges might slip but Gibson can pick up the slack there), the team needs a lot of better starts from the rest. So the hope is that Nolasco (pitched much better after his return from the DL), Ervin Santana and Alex Meyer (or Trevor May or Tommy Milone) can give the team more quality starts and keep them in games. Perkins is a good closer and they have bullpen depth (which fluctuates insanely year to year anyway) so if their starters can just be good (not great), they can compete in the AL central (or at least flirt with .500).

Prospect-wise, the Twins have a bunch of big-time prospects who will start the season at AA or higher - Meyer (if he's not on the club), RHP JO Berrios (20 but made a start at AAA last year), 3B Sano and OF Buxton were all ranked in the top 32 of mlb.com's prospect list. Reliever Nick Burdi and SS/2B Jorge Polanco both made some top 100 lists or honorable mentions. And Trevor May (if not on the ML staff, was a former top 100 guy who destroyed AAA hitters last year but got roughed up in the majors. He'll be a solid ML pitcher). After those seven, AA/AAA squads will also have 2B/OF Eddie Rosario (a former top 100 guy on some lists) and several explosive bullpen arms. There's some real depth in the Twins system.

Add it all up and there's room to think this could be a similar squad to the 2001 Twins who went from 69 wins to 85 and nearly won the AL central.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

I could make this complicated, but i wont.

Miguel Cabrera.

I'll take that cue and go:

Mets...pitching.

That's going to be the reason IF they contend.

 

[broncosmitty]

I'll take that cue and go:

Mets...pitching.

That's going to be the reason IF they contend.

When I saw Bartolo might be the Opening Day starter, first thing I thought......``Nationals wasted a boatload of money.``

 

[phredmojo]

I can tell you why my team WONT make the playoffs!

Howard Lincoln and Jack Z with a nice sprinkle of McClendon.

 

[scoutyjones2]

They are the Cardinals...they are always in contention and there is no reason to think otherwise!

 

[Indrid Cold]

The Bosox...because nobody in the AL East looks to be very good. They've picked up a few pieces that could let them be in contention if some of the pitchers show up. I actually wonder if Buchholz might come alive just because people have mostly given up on him.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

It's simple Preller didn't trade away all those prospects to finish last. The starting rotation will be good. The lineup should hit, even in Petco. Yeah the defense is going to suck, but you can't have everything right?

 

[Lord Scalious]

Pixie dust and Roids..

 

[kramer1]

I can make a case on how the Reds might finish in 4th place.