I am ranking the top 12 starting RBs based on their schedules

[Brees#1]

For the first tier(the elites)
Peterson
Easy games-When he wants, he can run on anyone. Every other year this guy has been tops in rushing yards. But if I had to guess, rams, falcons, packersx2, lionsx2, bills, redskins, bears, panthers, and dolphins all figure to be great games where they could be in them until the end against teams that cannot stop the run or cannot really stop AP.
Tough gaes-His tough ones come against NE, NO, TB, NYJ. Not counting the last game against Chicago unless your league does week 17.
11 nice games figures for him to return to the top and the vikings to actually contend.
McCoy
Easy games-Jaguars, redskinsx2, rams, giants, panthers, packers, titans, and cowboysx2.
Tough games-49ers, cardinals, texans, seahawks
Likely not as involved-Colts. I see colts getting ahead in this game forcing Foles to throw.
10 nice games here but may not see as much of the workload against packers.
Charles
Easy games-Titans, dolphins, 49ers(considering JC will be worked more than McCoy), chargers, rams, seahawks(because of the noise, defense at home), broncos at home, raiders at home.
Tough games-broncos on the road, pats, jets, bills(coming off bye and not in Toronto), raiders on short rest, cards, and steelers.
8 nice games here. Yes I have JC doing well against the two teams I see McCoy struggling with. The reasons are KC has defense to give Seattle one of their worst games and Smith will be running JC through the ground against SF. Eagles do not and not as physically well coached as KC.
Forte
Easy games-Bills, packersx2, panthers, falcons, vikings, cowboys, and lions at home.
Tough games-49ers, jets, dolphins(something tells me Miami stacks 8iob here), pats, bucs(I would think at this time bucs can be gashed but its the Lovie factor), lions in Detroit, and saints.
8 games here as well where he could get the elite number of 13 or more points.
Lynch
Easy games-Packers, cowboys, raiders, giants, 49ersx2, and cards on the road.
Tough games-Chargers, broncos, redskins(both rested and 8iob), rams(like last year), panthers(like last year), chiefs, and cards at home
Wild card-Eagles, depends if seahawks are leading by DDs where they run out the clock.
7 good games, but 7 bad games. Possibly he may end up not playing the whole season.
Lacy
Easy games-Because of Rodgers, opponents have to account for the run and the pass which does not work. Lacy was effective in every game Rodgers started last year. Without Rodgers, he struggled against the eagles, giants, and lions who could stop the run and backs his size but after that and against the vikings he did well even against Pittsburgh who was on the road though by then teams were accounting for Flynn. AS long as he and Rodgers are both healthy he's a threat every game except for the first game.

I will rank those this way
1.Peterson
2.Lacy
3.McCoy
4.Forte
5.Charles
6.Lynch

The next tier
Foster
Easy games-Bills, cowboys, colts at home, titansx2, eagles(because they are at home and eagles on b2b), and jaguars.
Tough games-Redskins(8iob here), giants(giants at home 2 weeks), steelers, browns, and ravens.
Wild cards-Raiders and colts on the road(could get behind)
7 nice games but all after week 3 and possibly good against raiders, colts, or both.
Murray
Easy games-Titans, texans(because Houston won't have the offense to keep defense fresh), giantsx2(weaker run defense), jaguars, eagles(short week), bears, and colts.
Tough games-49ers, rams(not this time cowboys will not be leading), saints, seahawks, redskins(primetime), eagles on the road.
Wild card-Cards(could go either way scorewise)
8 nice games with 1 more potential.
Bell
Easy games-browns at home, panthers, bucs(running the clock), jaguars, texans(running the clock), colts, titans, saints(in December), and bengals(steelers usually run well vs them).
Tough games-ravensx2(short rest after big game and likely fatigue wk9), browns on the road(abandoned run), jets, falcons(abandoned run).
Wild card-Chiefs(depending on the score).
9 nice games should steelers give him the ball enough. Blount could be another factor.

Rankings
1.Peterson
2.Lacy
3.McCoy
4.Murray
5.Forte
6.Bell
7.Foster
8.Charles
9.Lynch

The next tier
Ball
Easy games-Same as Lacy. If Manning is healthy, Ball benefits by teams accounting for both. Could be the big steal in round 2 or could end up being a big flop.
Stacy
Easy games-Vikings, cowboys, seahawks(last year ran well at home), broncos(running the clock, I see this as one of the big upsets), chargers(another game where defense comes up big), raiders(obviously), redskins, cards(short rest), and giants.
Tough games-Bucs, eagles, 49ers(primetime), chiefs, cards.
Wild card-49ers on the road(they tend to play better in SF for some reason on o)
The issue here is whether Bradford commits to the run enough. If he doesnt, some of these stats are pointless. But if rams are taking the next step and winning more games and secondary dominating more than last year then it obviously helps Stacy. 9 or 10 games with great expectations.
Ellington
Easy games-Chargers(because its week 1 and on MNF), giants, redskins, raiders, eagles(defense and eagles on the road in a losable game), cowboys, rams, lions(lions on road out west), and falcons.
Tough games-49ers(he did well last year in SF but they didnt account for him), broncos, seahawksx2, chiefs, and rams on the road.
9 games all before the postseason where he has potential to be huge. The tough test comes in December and trade bait possibly.

Rankings
1.Peterson
2.Lacy
3.McCoy
4.Ball
5.Ellington
6.Murray
7.Forte
8.Bell
9.Stacy
10.Foster
11.Charles
12.Lynch

 

[TheRedPlectrum]

Lacy above McCoy =

 

[TREFF]

Lacy above McCoy =

fairly pointless exercise, as it relies on last years defensive stats vs the run, doesn't take into account players changing teams, new head coaches who implement drastically different defensive strategies, ect, ect... nor does he account for the obvious talent gap between the two in question. Ranking players preseason based on SOS is always a major oopsie in my book.

 

[iowajerms]

The starting RBs that didn't make the list. I went with the highest ranked RB on each team according to NFL.com Fantasy Rankings.

Gio Bernard
Reggie Bush
Toby Gerhart
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson
Rashad Jennings
Chris Johnson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Doug Martin
Ryan Matthews
Knowshon Moreno
Alfred Morris
Ray Rice
Trent Richardson
Bishop Shankey
CJ Spiller
Ben Tate
Pierre Thomas
Shane Vereen
DeAngelo Williams

 

[broncosmitty]

Jackson was like 84 years old last year. Would touch him with a 39 and a half foot pole.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Nice write up! Unfortunately I disagree. Ball in the third tier is funnier than me having him 2nd overall. How can you claim Lacy's advantage being Rodgers and not say the same for Peyton?

I will keep saying it, Ball is a first round pick...maybe not in July mocks, but he will be in the first round in any competitive league.

Also, you can't claim a bad defense because of last year's results. The Bears will be MUCH better than last year. Rams too.Panthers an easy matchup? And the Texans? How do you claim a bad offense for the, but have Foster as a top ten back?

 

[wilwhite]

Your approach makes sense, and that's a lot of work. And if Lacy comes out above McCoy with your analysis, so be it.

That said, you have the Texans as both a tough and an easy opponent - which actually highlights the shifting landscape year-to-year for defenses. (They were tough two years ago and easy last year, have new coaches, and got Clowney. Good? Bad? It's a mystery.)

So the "wild cards" should probably dominate your lists - which of course would make it harder to get much of an effect out of them.

 

[Clayton]

Rams will do well against Charles (think Chiefs oline), struggle against Murray (Cowboys oline and Dez), and Peterson is kinda unknown because they'll shut him down except for 0-3 giant runs.

 

[averagejoe]

Brees, this is a nice idea to rank according to SOS. Appreciate the effort. Not to shoot down your idea, but SOS is usually a "team" concept. There is a SOS chart available that ranks according to individual positions, instead of "teams." After all, one defense may be great against RB, but poor against the TE.

With this in mind, here's all 32 starting RB based on their matchup against only the run D with 1 being the easiest and 32 being the toughest:

1) T.Rich
2) CJ1K
3) Foster
4) McCoy
5) Rashad J.
6) Gerhart
7) Spiller
8) AP
9) Morris
10) Murray
11) Bush
12) Sankey
13) Ellington
14) Miller/Moreno
15) Gore
16) Bernard
17) Charles
18) Lynch
19) Martin
20) Mathews
21) Vereen
22) Forte
23) Frenchy
24) Lacy
25) Rice
26) DMC/MJD
27) DeAngelo
28) Tate
29) Ball
30) Stacy
31) LeVeon
32) SJax

 

[Brees#1]

Lacy above McCoy =

It can go either way, Lacy is the one though that defenses can't completely shut down without Rodgers doing damage. Foles? The saints took care of him, and so did Arizona and he is yet to face the giants as a starter. Who knows what Foles does this season.

 

[Brees#1]

The starting RBs that didn't make the list. I went with the highest ranked RB on each team according to NFL.com Fantasy Rankings.

Gio Bernard
Reggie Bush
Toby Gerhart
Frank Gore
Steven Jackson
Rashad Jennings
Chris Johnson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Doug Martin
Ryan Matthews
Knowshon Moreno
Alfred Morris
Ray Rice
Trent Richardson
Bishop Shankey
CJ Spiller
Ben Tate
Pierre Thomas
Shane Vereen
DeAngelo Williams

The ones I listed, minus Stacy, do not have to worry about a timeshare.

 

[Brees#1]

Nice write up! Unfortunately I disagree. Ball in the third tier is funnier than me having him 2nd overall. How can you claim Lacy's advantage being Rodgers and not say the same for Peyton?

I will keep saying it, Ball is a first round pick...maybe not in July mocks, but he will be in the first round in any competitive league.

Also, you can't claim a bad defense because of last year's results. The Bears will be MUCH better than last year. Rams too.Panthers an easy matchup? And the Texans? How do you claim a bad offense for the, but have Foster as a top ten back?

Panthers lost some important players on defense. I am certain they are gonna bad year. You think they're gonna not have injuries when they have to deal with Cincinatti, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, and Pittsburgh all in the first half? Carolina matched up well against what they had last year. Munnerlyn gone is gonna hurt as is Hardy. And they were not that great late against the run last year. Carolina is no different than the other 1 year contenders that regressed. And remember people were talking about wanting Rivera fired after 2012? Carolina is living off of last year not realizing everyone in their division all improved and how close their games were against crap offenses(that SF win was a fluke).

How much better will Chicago be against the run? Lovie and Urlacher is not there anymore. Yeah they got Allen but how much does he have left?

I didn't say Houston will be a bad offense. I said Houston would get gassed because Dallas has too much on offense for Houston to stop and I don't think RF is gonna go in Dallas and put up a shootout until I see otherwise and Dallas will be at home again after playing the saints(yeah my saints could lose but they're supposed to win). Also as we saw in Tennessee RF commits to the run game.

Rams have been mediocre against the run for years. Even last year, CJ2K had a monster game against them and it was not for Gabbert MJD could have as well. Even Foster got over 100 rushing yards in that loss. Thats something they have been bad at for a while but mostly because of their secondary.

 

[averagejoe]

How much better will Chicago be against the run?

Better than 30th. (161.5 yards per game)

 

[Brees#1]

Your approach makes sense, and that's a lot of work. And if Lacy comes out above McCoy with your analysis, so be it.

That said, you have the Texans as both a tough and an easy opponent - which actually highlights the shifting landscape year-to-year for defenses. (They were tough two years ago and easy last year, have new coaches, and got Clowney. Good? Bad? It's a mystery.)

So the "wild cards" should probably dominate your lists - which of course would make it harder to get much of an effect out of them.

I have Houston's defense carrying them next year. their strength is against the run and Kareem. I think they win a lot of games because they have the titans and jaguars twice and Indy is at their place on a short week in addition to a last place schedule. Thats another thing, that TNF game could distract them against Dallas. Their passing offense will not be as good but RF is not going to throw it enough either. And as I said before, RBs can do well on bad passing teams. Look what JC did for KC and Spiller and FJax for Buffalo.

 

[Brees#1]

Rams will do well against Charles (think Chiefs oline), struggle against Murray (Cowboys oline and Dez), and Peterson is kinda unknown because they'll shut him down except for 0-3 giant runs.

Romo is different on the road. In a place like that week 3, idk if he will get past Quinn for Dez to matter.

 

[Davis_Mike]

I really won't get into the specific player in your list, but you needed to make it clear if the league scoring is standard or PPR. Because any tier list would be drastically different with either scoring system.

I would start out my tiers like this:

Tier 1(The order depends on the scoring system)
AP
McCoy
Charles

Tier 2
Forte
Lynch
Lacy

Tier 3
Martin
Stacy
Murray
Bell
Ellington

That is just the basic starting point for my tiers for RB(s).

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I love how some defenses are listed as both an easy match up and a tough match up.
Which is it?!?!?

 

[averagejoe]

The ones I listed, minus Stacy, do not have to worry about a timeshare.

I know what you're saying, but every RB worries about sharing carries. And most do share. It's what they do with those carries that count. If you were to calculate the team's total rush attempts by each RB, these are the RB with the highest percentage of carries based on their team's offense:

83% Morris
77% CJ1K
72% Stacy, Mathews & Lynch
71% McCoy & AP
68% Lacy & Gore
67% Rice
66% Tate
65% Forte
64% LeVeon
62% MJD
60% Charles

 

[TKOSpikes]

I love when your in the average zone, Joe!

 

[TREFF]

I love when your in the average zone, Joe!

Joe's the man! !

Actually kind of shocked Alf is on top, seemed like everyone we turned around last year someone was complaining about how often Helu was on the field.