DOA

[eburg5000]

that's a ball player there.

 

[JohnU]

Somebody just dug the basement a little deeper for the team tonight.
If it wasn't clear, Cueto gave up on that one.

 

[eburg5000]

Came mighty close to being a no hitter. Has this team totally given up.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Sometimes, it's just no fun coming to work. The money is normal to them, but maybe the quality of work life just sucks right now. I can relate in theory, just not in practice. I was and still am I suppose a bad loser. The only time I can ever remember feeling ok after a loss was after some type of massive overachievement to get TO the one that got away. This team was "supposed" to win in '11,'12, and '13, and didnt. 2010 was a surprise, and a dissapointment in the end. This year, I think they were hoping for "competitive" and just got overwhelmed with injuries and underperformance, and to sone degree the 2 are related.

Votto's refusal to talk about his situation makes PR touchy, and leaves more questions about not just his near term prospects, but also the Reds long term options. It's a problem. There is a lot of uncertainty around almost all of what was believed to be the Reds core. Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Bailey all have contract/performance issues, and Cueto, Latos and Chapman have expiring contracts who's performance puts financial pressure on the Reds to add to the already club high payroll, or cut bait and re-tool...leaving them with the underperforming/overpaid previous core. Frazier, Hamilton, Mesoraco were bright spots, that won't be cheap long either.

IMO, this all is the product of 2 organizational malfunctions- the farm not supplying timely quality answers, and the Reds not making timely quality decisions. Those 2 are related IMO.

 

[JohnU]

I agree, there will need to be genius to send this team in another direction.
My favorite Reds team, mentioned often, is the 1961 pennant team that nobody who posts on these boards even remembers.
I look at how that team was built and revisited it a few times.
Starting in November of that year, the team began to rebuild. Traded Roy McMillan to the Braves for Juan Pizarro and Joey Jay. (2 first names) ... the Pizarro to the White Sox for Freese. Sent somebody to Cleveland for Coleman ... and all the while, the fans are going 'what the fuck are they doing?" McMillan was popular.
Then they traded Ed Bailey to the Giants and really pissed off the fans.
By the end of July, they were in first place and we were glued to the radio.

The point is, the 1960 Reds were TERRIBLE. By the end of 1961, they were a few years away from almost winning in 1964 and were a heartbeat from what we know as the BRM.

Different times, different deals, contracts, trades ... all different now.

But the principle is never going to change.

Find winners and prepare to rock the boat. Walt is too loyal. Nice guys finish last.

 

[eburg5000]

I hate to say it, because it shows my age, but I do remember the 61 Reds. I was only 10 at the time , and didn't really start following the Reds till 66, I also read the book about the 61 reds, which I think I read it, because of your post.

 

[JohnU]

The fun part of 1961 was that once the team got into first place, the crowds started showing up. For folks who don't recall the geography around Crosley, a crowd of 7,000 in those days challenged parking beyond the scope of sanity. When crowds reached into the high 20,000 range, the park was almost full.
Ushers were literally swamped. Vendors went mad selling beer. The pissers were ... well yeah.
You'd have to park several blocks away and some little ghetto kid would come up and say, 'I'll watch your car for 50 cents.' Yeah right ... but it was worth 50 cents after you learned that the kids who got 'car deals' were respected. They earned the half-buck and your car was safe. Safe from what? Dunno, the kid said he would watch it and ... he did.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't remember the '61 team, but I remember the Frank Robinson trade being one of the worst in team history. May, Helms and Stewart were good players, and I didnt know squat about Morgan, Menke, Billingham, Geronimo...but wound up being a good trade for the Reds. Perez for Woody Fryman broke the BRM. My point is, even the experts are throwing dice. Every trade is intended to be a winner, sooner or later I think.

My issue with Reds right now is, the core players I thought were for the most part sound signings, appear to be a problem. The Reds can't deal a quarter billion dollars in damaged goods, and they are very limited with what they can bring in because of them. A player or two can make or break this team for 5 years. If they deal a prime time pitcher, they pressure Leake or Simon to repeat or step up from what may already be a career year. I've seen that movie before.

I think they need to cut bait on Ludwick, Hannahan, and most of the bullpen, and send Mesoraco to winter OF school- try to get him 500 AB's next year. Bruce could use a tee and strike out 140 times, so he could use some work too. There is no plan B for Votto. He has to play, and I think they've done a crappy job explaining that to him. No way I dismantle the pitching rotation unless it's an overwhelming return.

 

[eburg5000]

Frank Robinson was the worst in team history, and mighty close to being the worst trade in all of baseball history. But that Perez for Fryman trade is a close 2nd. And maybe hurt the team more.

 

[JohnU]

I think, moving forward, there are some very telling numbers that ought to help the GMs modify what they are doing.
First off, the most runs any team in MLB will score this year is less than 800. A dozen years ago, the good teams scored upwards of 1,000 runs.
Even mediocre pitching staffs are holding teams to less than 3 runs a game. Notice the Cubs.
Good pitching is already there because the hitting is so terrible.
Trading bats for pitchers now isn't really important unless you already have the bats and need the pitchers.
I have spent a lot of years believing I would not trade quality experienced MLB pitching for a bat, unless it was Frank Robinson.
Now I am not so sure. Cincy needs to build a roster than can score runs. It's tough. Good hitters are locked down in long contracts. Here and there, you can get lightning in a bottle.
The Reds can, I think, contend with a rotation of Bailey, Latos, Leake, maybe Corcino or Holmberg and a dozen other guys named Simon.
Cueto ... I love the guy, but he's worth 2 bats.
Chapman ought to be a starter but he's worth 3 bats.
Simon is worth 1 bat, maybe 2. He's not worth it but the GMs of the world will think he is.

And watch what the Cubs have done. They are positioned to replace the Pirates as the team to contend for the NL-C. It will be two more years.

Reds will be signing Cesar Izturis to play middle infield.

 

[Redsfan1507]

If the Reds can win 2 of their last 6 games, they'll win 74 miserable games this year, the same record Dusty's dead beat first Reds year. Almost hard to believe they can win 74-with the Cubs-ish second half record they had.

A question worth pondering is, looking at 2008-2013, the Reds added a whole lot of talent, but wound up in 2014 no better than the "rebuild" started with in '08. Injuries greatly reduced the lineup to an anemic effort, but the Reds had zero pitching or defense in 2008. I have to believe although the record is the same, the state of the club is in better shape than 2008, don't I ?

...IF..."is the middle word in life"...the injuries are past, the long term signed core is still sound, and they can either hold onto players like Cueto, Chapman and Latos, or get equal return for them.

The other side of that "if" leaves the prospect of owing more than a quarter billion dollars to players that gave us this year's contribution....at a stage like 2008, of re-tooling... with that huge debt preventing doing it at the MLB level.

 

[JohnU]

I think they need to re-evaluate the process. If indeed the advanced metrics are important, Walt needs to spend a little less on middle and late relief pitching and more on depth.
The breakdown was that Pena became the machinery this year instead of the lever, which was why he was signed. Same with Schumaker and Santiago. Those guys are a sure-fire 105-loss team.
I will re-assert that the Reds need to build a good offensive team and a dependable pitching rotation, which is not what I would have said 2 years ago. Watching how this team performs, it's clear that there isn't any coaching and it's clear that maybe none would be of any help anyhow.
So we need to go after hitters who already know how to get it done.
How to get them: The 64,000 dollar question.
I don't know if the team is better now than in 2006-7-8, but they hit better back then. The ongoing belief was that all they needed was pitching. So they got pitching and figured they'd just play good defense around a bunch of 2.99 ERAs and all would be well.
Teams need a mix of everything. Getting shut out 20 times is rough. Losing 40 1-run games is rough. These guys don't believe in themselves. The Parrots believe. The Cardinals believe.
You have to be able to string together 4 or 5 hits here and there to let your starter off the hook.
And the starter can't dole it back out to the other guy, a 2-run homer at a time.

And for crying out loud, put CHAPMAN IN THE ROTATION.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't get that one. As recent as last year, Price was in favor of the move that had to have been discussed before signing Broxton to a closer contract...then it's his decision, and he chooses status quo. When Arroyo was there, and Broxton was injured, I understood AC in the bullpen- this year ? It was a no brainer to move him into the rotation-no one expected Simon to be a SP- not even Simon. Cingrani should have been groomed for the bullpen LOOGY role for the same reasons Chapman should be a SP- the number of pitches they can get outs with- Cingrani has 1 and Chapman has 3.

It's wasted talent.

Now, Broxton is gone, and so are logical closer choices beyond Chapman. If they weren't going to make changes, why change managers? Well, so Hamilton could play I suppose- Dusty didnt believe in rookies, especially ones that don't hit homers. That's really the only change I saw this year, a few more bunts, a lot more steal attempts, but otherwise the same old tune.

Frazier, Mesoraco and Hamilton bettered expectations, and Pena was was he was intended to be. Other than that, every other hitter in the lineup was well below expectations. The 3b coaching was as bad as ever. The rotation did well, but other than Broxton and Chapman, the bullpen stunk. The defense was good. Ludwick was a mistake. So was Hannahan, but he wasn't expected to hit 4th either. Bruce was always a swingaholic, but he fell off the cliff this year. Votto ? You tell me. I think he quit. Phillips has been steadily trending toward mediocrity as a hitter, but his D is great.

Votto is the straw that stirs this drink, and he was missing. There is no replacement.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Offense is down all over-its not the pitching it's the reduced PED's. I believe that, and the fact the average MLB catcher can't throw out a majority of above average base stealers with an average jump, will prove to trend offense more toward moving runners by means other than the 3 run homer before long. So, I'm a believer in Hamilton's tools. I always believe the farm is the lifeblood of a team. I also believe it's tough to retool and keep your top farm talent. Jocketty has made miscalculations, but we don't know how his decisions were limited by ownership and percieved PR ( ticket sales), either.

Letting popular players go is a risk- just like signing them until they're 40 is. We'll never know if the team we had would have been enough if they were healthy, unless they are next year and the Reds do nothing, again. The record says the fans expect them to do something. Change isn't always better, but it shows you are un satisfied.

 

[JohnU]

The problem with getting healthy is that the people who currently are healthy are the ones who are not hurt. Doesn't mean Cueto won't do a TJ act on us next spring. Or Mesoraco won't rip up a knee. Anybody can get hit in the chops with a line drive or wild pitch.

What you do for Plan B is not to expect guys like Santiago and Hannahan to fill in while we wait ... wait ... wait for Votto to get healthy.

You go out and get a hitter.

How? Dunno ... most of the good ones are tied up in long-term deals now. Hitting has always been useful and it's even more valuable now that there are so many bad hitters and overachieving pitchers, throwing to strike zones that befuddle me because the PitchFx says a ball that is on the knees is worth the same as one up around the letters -- both unhittable by anybody not named Rennie Stennett.

Cincy would do worse than go all small-ball but that's really not possible today unless you teach Bruce to bunt and diminish the impact of the super shift.

In all, it seems to me that the Reds are a team that needs to have blooper hits land a foot inside the line -- in other words, they need to get lucky. The trick is to actually hit the ball. That requires something more than luck.

 

[redsfan03]

It appears Jocketty will be around for a while. He just signed a long term extension. I used to be a big fan of his, but I've got to be honest, I get less and less impressed by him every year. The farm system is completely dry and the Reds are loaded with huge long term contracts. I understand he's overseen some of their most successful seasons in recent memory, but I have to wonder if it isn't more due to the vastly improved farm system we gained under Krivsky (who, by and large, was a terrible GM).

 

[JohnU]

I can't say the farm system is a problem that bothers me for a couple of reasons.
I think you can trade to improve the farm. You only need to pick one guy every so often to make the minors work. And there are Cubans here and there you can lift off the mat.

The problem is that these guys get trapped in the minors while the Reds sign guys like Izturis, and Valdez ... if you are gonna suck on the bench, do it for league minimum instead of a 2-year $5 million deal. Kris Negron is 27 years old. He's easily been the team's best reserve guy. Meanwhile, Hack Jannahan ....

The contracts thing is always a crap shoot. Every team faces that now. Do you let Votto walk? At the time, the consensus was ... no way. What goes around comes around on that, and eventually, the Yankees and the Dodgers will still have all the talent and will be sitting there, waiting for the rest of them to play out their options.

If a team is lucky now, making the playoffs 3 years out of 5 is probably as good as it gets. The rarity is when the Yankees and Beansox don't make the playoffs.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, there is a lot to consider as a GM. I can't disagree with any perspective here, but there are complications.

Fans generally don't know minor leaguers, and don't buy as many season tickets when favorite MLB players are traded for mysteries, even if it is a sound move. Lots of farmhands "project" well, but turn at like Brandon Larson-MLB flops. GM's get a comfort level with signing "known" backups like Santiago or Hannahan instead of hoping Negron or Soto will really hit when the starter goes on the DL...they pay more for that comfort level, unfortunately. 5 tool players are rare, but aren't generally relegated to utility status when they're brought up-teams usually make a starting spot available for them. By the same reasoning, farmhands projected to be utility grade players aren't given the same opportunities as MLB "proven" players- often a mistake...especially when that 4 or 5 tool stud becomes a .217 hitter or a DL regular, or they wind up being a MLB pinch hitter that can't hit, like Hannahan.

The farm is a big deal to me, because you need a lot of quality choices so your plan B, C or D doesn't become futility. These days in order to get a top prospect or three, you gotta trade a current MLB All-Star to get them, and vice-versa...so you can empty a perceived MLB ready group of would be cheaper alternatives pretty quickly. I question the ability of a GM to sort the real talent from the roster fillers at the minor league level, when they pick poorly from the MLB platoon and utility infielder pool. Development is important, and a big missing component in the Reds system. I just haven't seen many players develop any aspect of their game in the Reds farm, other than an occasional position change. 4 bunt attempts isn't teaching anything, and not many guys look like they've seen a curveball much less can hit one to the opposite field, when they arrive in Cincinnati.

In hoping for what was trouble last off season- that they pay Cueto a fat contract to keep him. Same with Chapman...because frankly, no ones minor leaguers they would get in return are likely to have similar talent. You can't keep trading expensive star players for the next Cueto or Chapman, or Mike Trout, or everyone would be doing it....or drafting those players themselves.

Anytime I see a local like Pittsburgh's Harrison, it tells me scouts miss a lot in their back yard. Makes me skeptical they have better vision with other teams players. Think they have to try to sign their own studs, hope they stay healthy, farm better, avoid the Ludwick type signings, and only trade when it's forced by pending free agency or an overwhelming offer.

 

[JohnU]

I think it also pays to compare past results with future expectations.
Kansas City and Pittsburgh currently are the best examples, and Baltimore maybe as well.
In past years, Tampon Bay.
They finished so poorly for so many years that they got so many early draft selections -- eventually something either pays off or you send the GM back to some office job with IBM where he came from.
To some degree, the Reds current team is the the product of a lot of poor finishes.
Eventually, you are supposed to improve -- not go 20-some years without any success at all, like the Parrots did.
I think the trick to drafting is to draft No. 1 picks in the No. 1 spot ... NOT No. 8 picks in the No. 1 slot because you know you can sign him cheap and fake the fans out for a couple of years.
Top draft picks, college pitchers and hitters from the top 30 or 40 programs, will cost big money. A high school kid with a 99-heater ... will not be cheap but he's also going to be a much bigger gamble for a longer time.
St. Louis drafts college players and they're in the big leagues in 2 years.
The Reds are letting their high school kids turn 25 years old and are still humping whores in Louisville on rainout days.

The other trick is to find NDFA guys like Iglesias or Chapman, hope they love the big Wishbone C enough to sign ... and you can maybe get lucky enough that they throw faster than they drive.

Still, the Reds need to develop a system of hitting and they need to do it now. They can't tell Stubbs or Hamilton to "work on your bunting" and expect it to work. Bruce hasn't actually SEEN a pitch he's swung at in 2 years.

Reds philosophy is -- swing the bat, hope you get lucky and try to score on a bad throw.

That isn't the GM's fault unless he's responsible for hiring coaches and scouts who are clueless. In that respect, everybody is a crap shoot from time to time. I mean ... how did the Reds not get Clayton Kershaw? Dunno ... 28 other teams didn't get him either.

 

[Redsfan1507]

76 wins is only about half their 1 run losses from being a playoff contender. Stats can be useful, and decisive. Go back and dissect those close games and pick out common denominators if you want, but the bottom line is, a lot of those 1 run losses were to teams no better than the Reds. They werent all blown by the middle bullpen. How many of those losses had outs made beyond 2b that were the first or last out of the inning ? A few. Its conjecture if bad fundamental baserunning is prompted by desperate offenses, or only contribute to the lack of offense, but baserunning wasnt great, even with nore steals. This team still strikes out a lot, ignores fundamentals often, and spends more thought on L/R matchups than plate philosophy, as does MLB in general.

You can't win if you don't score-and the Reds didnt score enough to win much, except in games Cueto and Chapman pitched-even though the lineup in those games had a lot of un-impressive hitters. There is a clue there I believe- the better you pitch, the fewer runs you need. Sounds obvious, but there will be lots of jabbering about trading some of the better pitching for a hitter that is going to make outs 75% of his at bats.

If you had a crystal ball, it would be easier to predict Votto, Phillips and Bruces 2015 production, thus telling you if you needed to get another hitter at all. No one can plan injuries, but the bench isnt the bench if they play 100 games. The top hitter on this team didnt make it to .280, so they need something. One of the top power hitters was benched nearly half the time because he was a catcher, but his lighter hitting backup catcher played 1b often. Light hitting Santiago replaced Mesoraco in most lineups spelling him, and that's a steep cut, by choice that wasn't made up for by Santiago's defense. I'll be interested to see if they ask Meso to practice at another part time position in the offseason or not, and why not if they don't. I'd like to see another 3b coach. Hitting coaches IMO, are for minor adjustments, and minor league players, not overhauls on guys with long term contracts. Can Yorman Rodriguez hit better than Ludwick's .240 and 9 Hr ? I hope so, but I know he can get to and throw out more outs than Ludwick, and he's $9 Mil cheaper.
We don't need a corner infielder that can't hit or field on a 2 year deal, so I'd gamble on Negron or Lutz before Hannahan or even Santiago again. There was 5 wins just in better choices this year. Imagine if Votto would play half a year.