Devils Analytics Thread

[MadCaptain]

It appears that Analytics have finally gained a foothold in NHL offices with the Devils now leading the change along with several other teams that have created departments this off-season.

I have not kept up with new developments in hockey statistics, but I was against the advanced stats used 4-5 years ago. I also assume there are several others here that have little knowledge about the stats that these guys use. I'm not sure what to think about it yet but I feel it warrants discussion. The statisticians are here now and we can't ignore them anymore.


I'm wondering if anyone here (McDevils?) knows what stats are being used now, how these models work, and if they would be kind enough to explain some of the work that would be done by these departments.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Stats Made Simple Part 1 : Corsi & Fenwick - Second City Hockey

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I believe the most popular ones involve possession, basically more indepth/better versions of plus minus. Example a guy like Nik Lidstrom is a great advance stats player because he was amazing both defensively and offensively. If he was on the ice the Red Wings had the puck.

 

[MCDevils]

There's all kinds of fun stuff. Corsi (+100 different variations), Fenwick, Zone starts, QualComp, etc, etc.

The biggest indicator (generally in terms of success) is possession.

 

[MadCaptain]

Those were the common ones (Corsi, Fenwick) several years ago, and the ones that I highly disagreed with. At the time, the data available was not strong enough to truly support either of these stats. I imagine there has been large advances in data input since them. I know for certain Center Ice/ESPN/Etc. have begun to map out shot location and shot type but I'm not aware what stats are left out of these fan-based information releases. The possession stats seem intriguing though. I can see some good uses from them if interpreted correctly.


I'm also not afraid to get into nerd-level discussions about data, where it comes from, and how its used. I have enough experience with modelling to know that you can manipulate the data to have it show whatever you want.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Again, you still need the eyeball test and common sense. I don't think you can go all in on these advanced stats but if there are 2 similar free agents/prospects and the advanced stats tip heavily in favor of one over the other than why not?

 

[DevilishWon]

I'm a big believer in the win-loss-ot loss stat...that's about it

 

[MadCaptain]

I'm a big believer in the win-loss-ot loss stat...that's about it

I don't think its a matter of believing in advanced stats or not. Several teams, including the Devils, have brought in new departments to analyze players with these stats. It is relevant to Hockey regardless of our opinions right now.

Have you put much thought into the subject or have just been trying to ignore it all?

 

[DoobeeDoobeeDoo]

I don't think its a matter of believing in advanced stats or not. Several teams, including the Devils, have brought in new departments to analyze players with these stats. It is relevant to Hockey regardless of our opinions right now.

Have you put much thought into the subject or have just been trying to ignore it all?

Hard to ignore, that was the stat that said the Kings were the best team in hockey last season and it worked. Makes sense, puck possession matters.

 

[nj_cup]

I don't think you need all these stats. There is only one way to score in the nhl that's by beating the goalie. To do that you need to put the pucks on net. I know we had great possession time last year but really what good is that when our shots are weak writers that come from the point. Our whole game plan is to cycle grind it down toss back to the point and home a deflection. I don't need a stat guy to tell me that won't work

 

[nj_cup]

People see the book money ball and try to find something in hockey that isn't there This isn't baseball.

I get what they are doing and appreciate them trying to find an advantage anywhere they can but not worth it.


I remember a few years ago everyone was bashing kovys coris stats or some crap. Yeah um I would give anything to have him back right now the guy was a pure stud. I also will go out on a limb and say that ovechkin has similar crap stats? Yeah tel me you don't want him on your team

 

[MCDevils]

I can't find the article now, but I read somewhere about a month ago, that last years Devils team was the first team in half a decade to miss the playoffs while being a top possession team.

Last season we were the only team in the top 12 (Fenwick%) that DIDN'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

Another great reason why adding Mike Cam was a good signing because he was one of the best 5v5 goal scorers in the NHL.

Note: Assuming that we simply split our shootouts we would have been a playoff team.

 

[MadCaptain]

I can't find the article now, but I read somewhere about a month ago, that last years Devils team was the first team in half a decade to miss the playoffs while being a top possession team.

Last season we were the only team in the top 12 (Fenwick%) that DIDN'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.

Another great reason why adding Mike Cam was a good signing because he was one of the best 5v5 goal scorers in the NHL.

Note: Assuming that we simply split our shootouts we would have been a playoff team.

Would that mean the stats are flawed? The Devils were a terrible team last year. They were outclassed in skill, were never able to get any consistent strong play, and were designated as a team to rest your starters against.

The gameplan against them were to just let the team play their possession game, wait for the inevitable defense breakdown, and then score on the odd-man rushes. It's not like the possession game led to more goals. Hell, the Kings had terrible offense as well despite having a lot more skilled guys than the Devils. They just had a lot better group of defensemen than the Devils.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

You need guys that can score. The stats can only tell you so much. But being a possession team is huge in a 7 game series. Forcing the other team to constantly be chasing the puck around in their own end, forcing guys to get stuck out for long shifts. In the regular season this may not matter but come playoff time it will grind a team down.

 

[MCDevils]

Would that mean the stats are flawed? The Devils were a terrible team last year. They were outclassed in skill, were never able to get any consistent strong play, and were designated as a team to rest your starters against.

The gameplan against them were to just let the team play their possession game, wait for the inevitable defense breakdown, and then score on the odd-man rushes. It's not like the possession game led to more goals. Hell, the Kings had terrible offense as well despite having a lot more skilled guys than the Devils. They just had a lot better group of defensemen than the Devils.

The Devils were not a terrible team by any means last year. Like I said, the SOs are the only reason we weren't in the playoffs. The SO performance is an anomaly. I also don't agree with you way you're rating teams offensively. You can't just go off goal scoring. Look at how much the Caps from 3ish years ago accomplished when Ovi was scoring 65G. The Devils just didn't finish last year.

This also has nothing to do with stats being flawed. There are always going to be exceptions. A perfect example is how Toronto started out with a great record, but they were a terrible posession team and it caught up to them as the season went on. The Devils were actually fairly consistent last season. No huge losing streaks, not huge winning streaks.

 

[MCDevils]

You need guys that can score. The stats can only tell you so much. But being a possession team is huge in a 7 game series. Forcing the other team to constantly be chasing the puck around in their own end, forcing guys to get stuck out for long shifts. In the regular season this may not matter but come playoff time it will grind a team down.

Exactly right. I know Lou keeps saying that he wants to move a forward to resign carter which i think is incredibly stupid.

Assume the top 9:

Camm-Zajac-Jagr
Elias - Henrique - Havlat
Clowe- Brunner- Ryder


You can't tell me that a 4th of Zubrus, Ruutu, JJ will produce less offense than Carter, Gionta, Bernier.

I don't care in the slightest how much the 4th line makes because we have the cap room and those three (Zubrus, Ruutu, JJ) will help offensively.

Mike Camm is also going to be a huge help. He was the 7th (I think) best 5v5 goal scorer in the league last season on a weak Calgary squad.

 

[MCDevils]

 

[nj_cup]

This is actually a really good thread going on. I don't know how to multi quote......

Mc. I read that same story I think it was on yahoo when they inked Schnider but just adding camaleri goal scoring # doesn't work. I remember when we lost kovy praise clarkson and bought just because we added Ryder Bruner jägr the goal totals would even out. Doesn't work that way.


Mad captain was right we were a terrible team last year on top of beyond boring team to watch. Possession is important but you can't roll 4 lines of puck possession players. Your going to need to have a line of pure skill. a line we still don't have or a go to legit sniper that can take over a game.

In the playoffs it's good to have a a team that's good on the boards but guess what who's going to step up and score that timely goal? Salvador from the point after a cycle down low? Or insert a star player from other team. Keep in mind we are a team that is very old and are going to have to battle for every goal and every win this yer because our game plan of puck and board play. 82 games of that on top of playoffs? We are easy pickings.


People are going to say we missed the playoffs because the shootout and yeah to some extent. There are also games we won that We shouldn't have the one that comes to mind is that game in Boston scoring 3 goals in the final two mins. Over a season you win some you lose some. But fine I get the shoutout argument we certainly won't be that bad this year buuuuuuuuuut people seem to be forgetting that jägr had a career year for 42 years old that's what kept us close all season. We were also very very lucky with injuries think with this roster and age we will get so lucky again?

Mc I know you showed a list about his goal scoring and how it ranks up there. I still holding my prediction of 17-21 goals this year. This has Brian rolston written all over it and I was against that signing at the time too. If this deal goes bad I don't want to hear like I heard after Brian " he was the only ufa that wanted to come here Lou had to do something". No he didn't have to do anything maybe when he puts up crap numbers this year people will see stats aren't everything.


Wrote this on a tablet forgive the spellings

 

[nj_cup]

Exactly right. I know Lou keeps saying that he wants to move a forward to resign carter which i think is incredibly stupid.


Mike Camm is also going to be a huge help. He was the 7th (I think) best 5v5 goal scorer in the league last season on a weak Calgary squad.

This is like the movie little big league. The play by play guy had a stat checker that would come up with these off the wall stats to make things look better. Camaleri has the most goals in the nhl on Tuesdays after a full moon.

 

[MCDevils]

[/B]



This is like the movie little big league. The play by play guy had a stat checker that would come up with these off the wall stats to make things look better. Camaleri has the most goals in the nhl on Tuesdays after a full moon.

I still think you're wrong here. We were one of the worst 5v5 goal scoring teams in the league, adding Cam, and moving guys down the depth chart will at least give us a chance to be better. Even if adding Cam only gets us 15 more goals than last year, that's almost equal to 3 additional wins (might be fuzzy on the calculation, haven't read about it in a while) assuming that we continue to be similar defensively.