Deadline deals

[Redsfan1507]

Is it just me, or are there a LOT more name players being moved before the non-waiver deadline than normal ?

Could it be the bigger contracts are starting to be a bigger issue, and teams more eager (or required to) shed contracts, and/or players nearing free agency ?

I think so. There are more teams knowing they can't re-sign or don't want to at market cost. The rentals, may be just that too- teams willing to pick up the last $3M for a post season run this year, possibly without any consideration for the $100-$200M it might take to keep them on free agency. Lots of teams want Cueto, but realistically, how many could pay him Jon Lester money ? 2-3 ? Not the Royals, I assume. So, I think he and Price, etc. are moving again this winter.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Price might stick because the Jays will pay some money. Cueto is gone for sure. If we dont' unload Leake and Chapman, I will not be happy. I'd also see if we could send Bruce to the Mets for Wheeler.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Price might stick because the Jays will pay some money. Cueto is gone for sure. If we dont' unload Leake and Chapman, I will not be happy. I'd also see if we could send Bruce to the Mets for Wheeler.

Our system is void of hitters. We absolutely blow developing hitters right now, and we just traded Leake to the Giants for another pitcher and a AAAA 1B/OF with a little power who is turning 27.

Trading Bruce is not a bad idea, but last thing we need to do right now is trade for more damn starting pitching. We need hitters in our organization.

Bailey, Lorenzen, Iglesias, DeSclafani, Lamb, Finnegan, Stephenson, Travieso, Moscot, Cingrani. Most of these guys are ML ready by the start of 2016: Bailey, Lorenzen, Iglesias, DeSclafani, Finnegan, Stephenson, Moscot, Cingrani. That is 8 guys vying for 5 slots right there, and if you add Wheeler, which is great, you now have 9 for 5 slots. What are we doing about our vacancy in RF by losing Bruce? What about LF with Byrd leaving? Hamilton has been terrible at the plate. Phillips is getting older and losing some power, but seems to be a more patient hitter now. Suarez, has he done enough to ward off Cozart coming back from injury, otherwise we may be weakening that slot.

Have to hope everyone comes back healthy and ready to hit. I kinda wish Bruce is not traded now unless it is to gain some quality bats, and I am not crazy about any of the bats in the Mets system. The Yankees, now that is a different scenario. Refsnyder and Judge stand out to me as bats to target. Refsnyder is considered a 2B but his best position would probably be corner OF. The trade of Leake to the Giants missed out on a solid bat in Christian Arroyo.

I would love to have a healthy Wheeler pitching for us, but on the same token, we have an embarrassment of riches in pitching (not saying for a second any of these guys are going to be as good as most the Mets pitchers) but we have a ton. We now need to acquire hitters, there is just no other way around it.

Say we don't trade Bruce, we could still have this as a projectable lineup:

2B Phillips
1B Votto
3B Frazier
RF Bruce
C Mesoraco
SS Suarez
LF Y. Rodriguez
Pitcher Slot
CF Hamilton

SP Bailey
SP DeSclafani
SP Lorenzen
SP Iglesias/Stephenson/Cingrani
SP Finnegan/Moscot/Lamb

CL Chapman
SU Hoover

That is actually a lineup we might be able to compete with next year still as long as Meso and Bailey can stay healthy. We may be in rebuild mode, but if you hold off on a couple players, you can still compete next year for a wild card as well.

Byrd will not hit his 550 at bats, so we can just let him go FA instead of being forced to pick up the player vested option. Phillips, Votto and Bailey are basically non-tradeable as their age, production, injury history, contracts and trade veto ability prevent them from being traded.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Little underwhelmed from our return on Leake. I know he wasn't a major on-the-blocker, but I thought he'd bring back something better than Duvall.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Price might stick because the Jays will pay some money. Cueto is gone for sure. If we dont' unload Leake and Chapman, I will not be happy. I'd also see if we could send Bruce to the Mets for Wheeler.

I think the Reds are missing out on a HUGE get if they don't deal Chapman. With the extra year, his price is high.... anyone know what the D'Backs are allegedly offering?

 

[Tubbs1518]

Our system is void of hitters. We absolutely blow developing hitters right now, and we just traded Leake to the Giants for another pitcher and a AAAA 1B/OF with a little power who is turning 27.

Trading Bruce is not a bad idea, but last thing we need to do right now is trade for more damn starting pitching. We need hitters in our organization.

Bailey, Lorenzen, Iglesias, DeSclafani, Lamb, Finnegan, Stephenson, Travieso, Moscot, Cingrani. Most of these guys are ML ready by the start of 2016: Bailey, Lorenzen, Iglesias, DeSclafani, Finnegan, Stephenson, Moscot, Cingrani. That is 8 guys vying for 5 slots right there, and if you add Wheeler, which is great, you now have 9 for 5 slots. What are we doing about our vacancy in RF by losing Bruce? What about LF with Byrd leaving? Hamilton has been terrible at the plate. Phillips is getting older and losing some power, but seems to be a more patient hitter now. Suarez, has he done enough to ward off Cozart coming back from injury, otherwise we may be weakening that slot.

Have to hope everyone comes back healthy and ready to hit. I kinda wish Bruce is not traded now unless it is to gain some quality bats, and I am not crazy about any of the bats in the Mets system. The Yankees, now that is a different scenario. Refsnyder and Judge stand out to me as bats to target. Refsnyder is considered a 2B but his best position would probably be corner OF. The trade of Leake to the Giants missed out on a solid bat in Christian Arroyo.

I would love to have a healthy Wheeler pitching for us, but on the same token, we have an embarrassment of riches in pitching (not saying for a second any of these guys are going to be as good as most the Mets pitchers) but we have a ton. We now need to acquire hitters, there is just no other way around it.

Say we don't trade Bruce, we could still have this as a projectable lineup:

2B Phillips
1B Votto
3B Frazier
RF Bruce
C Mesoraco
SS Suarez
LF Y. Rodriguez
Pitcher Slot
CF Hamilton

SP Bailey
SP DeSclafani
SP Lorenzen
SP Iglesias/Stephenson/Cingrani
SP Finnegan/Moscot/Lamb

CL Chapman
SU Hoover

That is actually a lineup we might be able to compete with next year still as long as Meso and Bailey can stay healthy. We may be in rebuild mode, but if you hold off on a couple players, you can still compete next year for a wild card as well.

Byrd will not hit his 550 at bats, so we can just let him go FA instead of being forced to pick up the player vested option. Phillips, Votto and Bailey are basically non-tradeable as their age, production, injury history, contracts and trade veto ability prevent them from being traded.

I would trade Bruce for Wheeler all day. Bruce isn't a guy who can be depended on on a winning team. He is a nice guy to have behind your main guys. We don't have that luxury here. Of the guys you listed, none of them are big time sure things. None of them are #1 guys outside of possibly Stephenson IMO. Wheeler could be. Also the Mets have a couple nice bats in their minor leagues I would work to get back. Conforto is going to be a very good hitter. We need guys who can hit for average, Bruce doesn't bring that and isn't what this team needs. And no, we are not competing next year, unless you mean competing for last.

 

[Redsfan1507]

MLB still thinks the Reds front office is like the last sell off Krivsky made. Trading All Stars for middle relievers...The trick here is, the Reds can only keep a few guys making real MLB money, because they already committed to the equivalent of a few teams entire payroll, to 7 players next year- Votto, Bailey, Phillips, Bruce,Chapman, Mesoraco and Frazier are owed in excess of $75M with a total budget about $110M. That means if they keep them all, they only have $35M for 18 other players. The MLB minimum for rookies is about $450K. You do the math. It won't work easily without 75% of the AAA roster in Cincinnati...so, they need minor leaguers to cover the minor leaguers that will be on the big club.

And they probably can't afford a LF like Byrd for $9M and Frazier making $8M ( until arbitration and free agency).If I gotta choose, I'd keep Frazier and release Byrd. No team is trading for him at that price, IMO. Like Ludwick, he'll get picked up next year for $3M by some team.

 

[chico ruiz]

a little off the subject, but, even so, still a random ancillary trade connection from the reds near past.

i've had opportunity to watch ex-red didi gregorius develop this year. that may not be the correct way to describe it, but he seems more relaxed. it's like he's letting the game come to him, rather than forcing or trying too hard. very fluid defensively & offensively. not as choppy or nervous as some reds fans might remember him. he's not hitting .300, but he seems a lot more comfortable. it's probably as simple as his self confidence has grown to the point where he feels he belongs in mlb.

anyway, it's fun watching him play defense. very quick left & right, with a better arm than i remember. he doesn't waste time setting and aiming as much. he throws with less effort and seemingly more on it. nice to see a ex-red making good.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Didi could always play D. He just doesn't have any power, isn't likely to hit for a high average, walk, or steal much. He's about a 2.5 tool player, and none of them are on "O".

 

[Redsfan1507]

I'm still expecting Bruce to do what I always expect- .250/30HR by the end of the year. The real problem with Bruce, is the same problem I had with the under-performing Edwin Encarnacion when he was a Red-most of their yearly offense is produced in a couple of hot streaks a few weeks long, leaving the vast majority of the season buried in low contact sinkholes where they do little offensively, to help win games. Bruce is arguably "better" than E-5 was, because unlike E-5, Bruce is a solid defender, and a cooperative media darling....but I'd prefer a guy that was more consistent at the plate than Bruce.

His L/R splits, K/BB ratio, and long hitless slumps, suggest a player that probably should be platooned more, IMO.

That said, if you look at monthly splits on most 30 HR threats, most are up and down guys that strike out too much.

The real problem is, there are almost as few Reds likely to hit 30 HR as there are ones that steal 30 bases, or hit .300 or walk 100 times. Simply put, the Reds don't have many superior hitters. Trading Bruce isn't likely to help that in a Reds organization that produces shockingly few minor league players that hit enough to become everyday MLB outfielders.

As far as trading All-Stars for "prospects" is concerned, I think some fans are believing the prospect "propaganda" too much. I believe 80% of the reason for doing so, is simply to reduce payroll.

If teams REALLY believed in those "top" prospects becoming MLB impact players, they would have kept them, wouldn't they ? We're led to believe the pennant chaser dealers just need "now" players more than the "down the road" prospects.

Some of that is true... BUT...I think baseball people are well aware there is VERY low probability any of the 3 players received for Cueto, EVER have a 4-5 year stretch like Cueto has had. It's the odds gamble that makes it easier to swallow- you have 3 chances of "replacing" your stud...unfortunately, IMO, all poor. I think what they hope is, one can fill a hole immediately possibly as a spot starter or middle bullpen guy, and one or both of the others might hold a MLB spot down sometime in the next couple of years. In the meantime, they save enough money to give a couple MLB roster players contractual and/or arbitration raises, while they try to grow replacements as quickly as possible on the farm...so, by the time the MLB guys they do have to keep are free agent eligible, they can dump them for more $450K salaries. It's the revolving door of baseball business.

Honestly, if a team has one or two players from any given amatuer draft even REACH the Majors, it is deemed a success. Getting a couple a decade to perform like Cueto and Leake is tremendous. Periodically, if very "successful" at getting a LOT of farmhands to the Bigs, it depletes the farm rosters...like now. The Reds need "organizational depth"...meaning they need bodies to fill out rosters, not always expecting them to make a higher level impact.

IMO, it all sucks for fans.

 

[JohnU]

Bingo! 1507.
The ongoing blather around farm systems is amusing at best.
You don't replace rosters with farm systems. What you want is a Votto every 4th year ... not 16 guys who are slightly better than Kris Negron.

But the lie does continue, doesn't it? And we keep blaming the GM.

Tell ya what ... in 2 or 3 years when that entire wobbly Keystone Kops infield that plays in Pittsburgh needs to be replaced, we will see how great their "farm system" has been. After Burnett, Liriano and Morton all finally hit the wall, let's see if the Parrots can come up with 3 quality rotation guys. Melancon isn't getting younger and I can't say for sure if I'd want to win a World Series with Chris Stewart as my backup catcher.

But yeah ... those amazing farm systems. Let's see how the trendy ones are doing in a couple of years now that the Parrots have to pick somewhere near 26th in the rotation.

Let's see how the Cubs move forward with a lot of home-run hitters who wear concrete gloves. Sooner or later, gonna have to trade one or two of them for a pitcher. What? A pitcher in Wrigley? Surely ... ye jest.

Don't call me Shirley.

 

[eburg5000]

MLB has sure changed a lot sense I was a kid. Economics is much more important now. Putting nine quality players on the field is almost impossible. I think free agency is some of the problem, but not all. How many new teams have they added in the last 50 years. Most benches back then would be everyday starters now. A 260 batting AVG then was barely keeping your head above water, now it's good. All this is bad for the fans

 

[JohnU]

The nature of baseball was inevitably going to hurt the hitters ... when every team now has 13 pitchers on the roster and all of them are expected to throw to 1 or 2 hitters, it's obvious the edge goes to the pitching. Any attempts to change that would mean forcing teams to make their pitchers change their ways, which is not going to happen.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Free agency started the salary landslide...but PED's really were the earthquake that brought down the mountain. I'm absolutely sure PED's in baseball started with a few gym rat players getting an edge, but by the time MLB was really aware of the PED potential, and had noticed the arbitration and free agency inflation of contracts from users putting up those gaudy numbers, Selig and the owners knew they hooked a money whale. Sosa and Bonds and McGwire were bringing in lots of new interest (and revenue)...so MLB just looked the other way, a defacto encouragement...not only did players contracts get out of reach of most teams, ticket prices and sponsors products inflated too. TV revenue went off the charts. Everyone in MLB got richer. A lot richer. Faster. IMO, it's been a long running conspiracy...like most successful ones, it's whispered, not openly discussed.

It was and is, the perfect crime for MLB. They are still reaping the money benefits of PED's, while paying none of the penalties, or accepting any liability- that's all on the players. There are suggestions the current "random" testing doesn't expose good boys with Wheaties smiles and lots of twitter and facebook hits. More leverage for the MLB mafia. Because the players still make millions, and exposing the entire scenario would alienate fans, no one is willing to expand on Canseco's squealer book...yet.

Meanwhile, the only people not getting more, are the fans, who pay them all. Sad.

 

[JohnU]

I can say that, regardless of the reason, Reds fans are going to pay dearly ... period, and PEDs has nothing to do with it.
It's called ineptitude from the top down. As much as I never thought I'd claim this -- but Price has managed to wreck, in less than 2 seasons, everything that Dusty built. And Dusty was not even close to being a great manager.
That's how bad Price has been.
This team is headed for a very long period of bad baseball.
Looking at the rotation pitchers specifically, it's curious that, under a former pitching coach, a pitching coach and an assistant pitching coach all in the dugout, that Lorenzen and Desclafani are systematically regressing with each start. Holmberg hasn't been around long enough to get shelled yet and Iglesias probably is immune to it.
Keyvius Sampson needs another couple of starts before the league analyzes the film on him. Bombs away, goes the Sheppard song.

I cannot convey how insulted I am at how this pitching staff was mismanaged and how on EARTH we went from Kevin Gregg to Jason Marquis to Dylan Axelrod all in same season, with Jumbo and Badenworse just really impressing us.

Chapman, meanwhile, is in the closer's chair, waiting to get an inning when the team is down 11-2 in the 9th inning.

 

[eburg5000]

The Reds are trying to give the impression that they are rebuilding. And all these rookie pitchers are the next Cueto, and Leake. But they know as well as we know, most won't stick if any. In a few years the only players we will see that is on the team now is Votto and Bailey, (Bailey if he makes it back). And the rest of the team will be made up of young minor league players with the word potential on their backs, while the Reds lose 90 to 100 games a year.

When the Reds traded Latos and Simon last year, and didn't sign Leake this year. Showed me and everyone else that they are going to go as cheap as they can for awhile. So be prepared to watch the Houston Astros of the last 7 years, in Reds uniforms

 

[Redsfan1507]

Actually, I think only part of that is true eburg. I think it's probable the Reds won't truly compete in 2016, I think it's entirely possible they can be where the Astros are now, from a competitive standpoint in just a couple of years. Other than the payroll amount of course, because of Votto, Bailey, Phillips, etc. guaranteed and untradeable contracts. In fact, I think if the Reds DON'T compete by 2017, they'll have to consider a much more unattractive plan- to eat some of those contracts and truly start over. See the Phillies for that plan.

The Reds don't have ESTABLISHED rotation pitchers, other than Bailey, but are deep in pitchers than CAN be viable on 2 years or less. That's no small asset. It's the rarest asset.

In 2017, age wise, Votto can still be a thumper, as could Bruce, Frazier, Mesoraco. Phillips would be winding down at least leg and bat speed wise. Hamilton might actually be a .250 hitter by then, and whoever is the SS would be entering prime age. They need an OF ( that could be in AA currently) and a 2b by then...assuming aforementioned players were still on the roster and producing. Bullpens revolve yearly. They will have 3 decent SP internally, plus Bailey by then...Remember, only a couple years ago, the knock on the Reds was they didnt have a number one SP...and Cueto matured...

I still believe Chapman is the overlooked difference maker in all this. If they put him the rotation, and can pay him to stay, he's a key answer. If they are going to use him as a closer. and fight free agent offers in a year, they have to trade him for more assets, IMO. They've already made several bad decisions as downstream results of not making him a SP, and times running out. Hoover, or Stephenson can close for a few years until another comes along...but, Koufax, Johnson and Chapman come along once in a generation. To miss that clue is stark stupidity.

 

[JohnU]

From a competitive standpoint moving into 2017. the Cubs are ascendant, the Cardinals probably static and the Parrots on very thin ice.
Cubs need to find starting pitchers and they don't have much going there. To get one, they will have buy into the FA market -- or risk having to deal Soler or Russell.
The Cardinals just find ways to churn. It's hard to tell about their pitching. I think they are more vulnerable than they seem only because most of the league sucks buttermilk.
The Parrots have a sketchy infield -- and if you look at it, the best they have is Josh Harrison.
Their OF is very good. Cervelli and Stewart are scarcely that great. And after Garrett Cole and a couple of kids they keep bragging about but don't ever use -- what pitching? Liriano ... OK ... after that ... they finally scrapped Vance Worley. Melacon is using mirrors.
I can't evaluate the Brewers. They appear to be clueless and a new GM will be a work in progress.
That leaves the Reds, and we have identified their problems to the point of tedium. Cincy, as a franchise, is doing very well in all aspects of the game except the one on the field. The urgency to win won't happen for another couple of years. The free-agent drafts will be interesting to watch. If the Reds continue a policy of leaving guys in the minors until they're burned out ... not much is going to change.
First, it's time to get a dugout staff with some moxie. A hitting coach who helps hitters, a pitching coach who helps pitchers and a dugout coach who helps dugouts. And a manager whose definition of the word "accountability" has me puzzled.

At least we aren't losing guys at home plate like it was a World War I battle over the Rhine.

 

[eburg5000]

I don't know about that last part John. a few weeks back I saw Phillips get thrown out at home plate against Pittsburgh. It was a hard hit ground ball to the left fielder. The ball was in his hand as Phillips was rounding 3rd, the catcher had the ball waiting on him as he was half way down the line. The TV guys talked about what a great throw it was, and it was right there. but he could have lobed the ball in there , and Phillips would still have been out.
I'm not disagreeing with you John, for the most part it is better. But that play pissed me off, and I have been wanting to vent about it ever sense. And you gave me that opportunity. Thanks

 

[JohnU]

Yeah, I remember that play as well, and it wasn't clear to me if the coach had stopped him or if Phillips had run through the sign. Either way, that's a dead-duck play at the plate.