Crank 'er up, boys!

[JohnU]

 

[Ryanballa]

if your on twitter dont forget to vote #JoeyVotto #FaceofMLB. He advanced to 3rd rd 2 days ago, beating Goldshempt. He is gonna go up against Felix Hernandez in 3rd rd.

 

[JohnU]

Fangraphs is crunching numbers on the 2014 season and it doesn't look good for our heroes, they say.

About a 4.5 percent chance to win the NL-C.

Essentially, they say the Marlins and the Astros will be almost as good as the Reds.

The entire board seems a little conservative and when I see that, I perceive they are factoring in a margin for error.

EVALUATE AT YOUR WHIM

 

[Redsfan1507]

I can believe the Brewers are 4 games better with Braun all year, but don't believe the Reds are 14 games worse without Choo, Arroyo and Dusty. Win totals in general in that metric are low for projected division winners. The "parity" in MLB hasn't closed nearly that much over the winter. I wouldn't go out on a limb and project any 100 win or loss teams, but there will be a handful of 90+ win and 90+ loss teams, for sure. A few division winners will be around 30 wins better than the cellar dweller.

My best bets for 90+ win teams are: Redsox, Tigers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves. There are a few that could get to 90 including Rays, Yankees, Rangers, A's, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Giants.

Likely 90+ losers- Astros, Mets, Cubs, Marlins, Whitesox, Twins.

Lots of likely 75-85 win teams out there, and they will ultimately determine others fates on both sides of the equasion- the Reds could fall into that category easy enough...D-Backs, Orioles, Bluejays are middling type teams- I dont expect Indians, Royals, Mariners, Rockies, Phillies, Padres to play much over a sniff above .500 at best.

 

[JohnU]

The models show the Astros improving by 23 games with a pitching staff with a WAR of ONE.
How's that supposed to happen?
I can see the Reds being an 85-win team without Choo.



Yeah, with no team losing 90 and no team winning 90, it seems they've hedged all their bets.

Miami might win 65 games.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Whitesox are an underwhelming team too. I think the Indians are smoke and mirrors for the most part. Seattle isn't going to suddenly contend just with Cano and King Felix. On the surface, i expect like others the Yankees are better, but in reality, they added Beltran, Ellsbury, Tanaka, Soriano and McCann, but have lost A-Rod, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, and whatever they are paying for Jeter, C.C. Ichiro, and Tiexiera they aren't getting anymore...how much better does that make them ? It may be less than a wash.

The Reds and Pirates didnt get better, and the Cardinals didnt get worse. That's a problem that is hard to ignore.

 

[JohnU]

Birds have:
Wainright, Wacha, Miller, Lynn, Garcia, Lyons, Kelly, Martinez -- who are all starters.
Seigrist, Maness, Motte, Rosenthal, Choate in the pen.
They will have to make a move.
Most of these guys are worth more than Henry Rodriguez in a trade.
It's hard to see how they can improve, though.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Uh...they could improve if Craig gets 550 at bats- that might mean a .300/25/125 year from him. Grizzly Adams could get 500 swings if Craig moves to OF, and that guy makes Frank Howard look unimpressive. Adams might hit 49 HR and make them forget all about Beltran. Hell, Kolton Wong might steal 30 bases playing 2b, and Carpenter might hit BETTER playing 3b and not having to concentrate on the DP. Bourjos and Jay platooning on CF might take away 30 hits a year that used to fall between Holliday and one legged Beltran. Molina could be healthy again. Peralta isn't going to make then forget the Oz, but he'll outhit Brendan Ryan and Descalso and Furcal while he was on the DL.

They can get better, without adding anyone, pretty easily.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Pirates not so much. Martin isn't going to get younger, and I doubt Alverez is suddenly going to hit .280, or even .260, and I dont know if Marte or McCutcheon can get any better. The pitching might evolve, but they have to add to get much better offensively. IMO. The Brewers can hit, but Braun with less brawn may regress and Aramis Ramirez is a lock to be less now. Can Gomez and Segura get better ? Maybe...is Scooter more than Weeks ? Probably. They have 4 number 4 SP's though, and play bad D. They may not be much buffer between the Reds and Cubs, but if Garza and Lohse can't turn back the clock, they're going to have to score 6 runs to be in the game.

 

[JohnU]

I thought the secret to the Parrots last year was Martin, not that he was so great, but the options were McKenry or Barrajas. Seems like a fresh-cut tree stump was an improvement there. The issue with the Parrots is that league isn't surprised by them now. They will contend, though.

I have not bought into Roenicke's managing with the Brewers.

Of course, nobody plays all their games inside the division. It's interleague that is learning to separate teams now, and the NL hasn't done well, except when they get lucky with the schedule.

Like against Seattle. That series that the Reds lost was so symbolic of how Dusty's teams were prepared. When the Reds didn't sweep that series, I knew the season was a wash. Worse, they went 1-2.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I never saw Dusty prepared for anything except an excuse for underperforming.

I despise inter league play. When one game in the W-L column decides who is left out of post season, and the two teams in the same division vying for that spot play different schedules, it's not kosher for me. Your point is well taken though- if the Reds draw Seattle on a 90 loss season and lose 2/3 while the Cardinals win a series against a middling Royals team, it's the Reds fault. There are cases where one team gets someone like the Astros and another gets the Redsox, too.

It puts the NL at a disadvantage, IMO. AL teams usually have a roster spot for a DH, that at least offensively, puts up starting player numbers...and the NL teams have to fill that spot with a 4th OF, or a utility INF that isnt playing normally for a reason. Its a disadvantage that can't be made up in a NL park- because the NL pitchers don't hit any better than AL pitchers do in any appreciable amount.

I don't like the DH for all kinds of reasons- mostly because it's not the original, classic version of baseball where 9 guys all have to play both sides of the game. Managers and coaches actually had to manage and coach DURING the game....until even the NL was AL'd into being lazy ass morons too.

Lots of people like AL baseball, I'm just not one of them. I'd rather see Big Papi hit than Jon Lester too, but it's a different game when Papi has to play D, and Lester has to go to the plate like all the hitters he just threw chin music to.

 

[WvuDieHard]

I thought the secret to the Parrots last year was Martin, not that he was so great, but the options were McKenry or Barrajas. Seems like a fresh-cut tree stump was an improvement there. The issue with the Parrots is that league isn't surprised by them now. They will contend, though.

I have not bought into Roenicke's managing with the Brewers.

Of course, nobody plays all their games inside the division. It's interleague that is learning to separate teams now, and the NL hasn't done well, except when they get lucky with the schedule.

Like against Seattle. That series that the Reds lost was so symbolic of how Dusty's teams were prepared. When the Reds didn't sweep that series, I knew the season was a wash. Worse, they went 1-2.

But remember it wasn't Dustmop's fault. Let's revisit those famous Dustmop excuses:
1)"I think we overachieved," Baker said.
2)Sometimes it gets to the point where you're always blaming the teacher (meaning Jacoby). Sometimes it's the pupils,'' Baker said.

These 2 statements clearly show the baseball world what a delusional retard Dustmop was and why he is sitting in a rocking chair unemployed.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The man blamed his Cubs debacle on Bartman...on a foul ball that Alou couldn't have caught in his dreams...after Prior already had over 100 pitches in, with no one warming up in the pen...until he gave up a handful of runs with Dusty doing a crossword in the dugout.

Dusty was right about one thing- any team he ever managed that won, overachieved. They had to.

I would probably have fired Dusty after 2011, and definately would have after his 3 gaffes in the historic 3 game home playoff losing streak in 2012. Walt was all in for 2013, but forgot that Dusty is NEVER all in, with another year left on his contract. Gotta blame Walt for all that. Besides, now, Dusty's gone, and Price is left with an MVP, a disgruntled gold glove 2b, ONE OF with full time experience in the last 4 years, and a rotation without a LHSP, unless it's a rookie, or Chapman, or 57 year old Jeff Francis.

Price is intelligent, but he may need to be a magician to better Dusty's lousy use of better talent last year.

 

[JohnU]

Well, I'm ready to move past the former dugout staff. Any comparisons are purely coincidental to me.

 

[chico ruiz]

i'm with john on this. it's well past time to move on. it is, after all, officially 2014. you're wasting your baseball knowledge, and space on this board, with those type posts 1507. i don't want to revisit dusty's every little peccadillo this season. i'm looking forward to seeing how frazier, cozart, and mesaraco improve. phillips says inappropriate things in emotional moments at times. but, i get the feeling he regrets them later. i look at the other 99% of him and see a guy that loves to play the game and gives 100%. he won't be disgruntled. he'll try to win because 2013 is over. he will move on. let's do the same.

 

[JohnU]

I think what interests me about the graphics and the projections is that most of them in 2013 were off by an average of 10 wins. That's not really consistent with what the bookmakers would like to use for data. I don't know about long-term trends. I doubt this sort of numbers crunching has been around that long.

But it's clear that the computerized sabremetrics used to create these projections is flaunted by the stats geeks as way better than the "eyeball test."

I haven't found ONE single stats geek who thinks these projections are accurate. I guess stats and the eyeball test are pretty much the same thing to them.

I do know this: When a ballpark has an 8-foot high outfield wall, lots of things can happen.

 

[chico ruiz]

i tend to agree with that john. but, i think the good baseball people use it as a tool and ignore the hubris of the overly statified. projections are just that, projections. i do find the three true outcomes trajectory in the last 50 years fascinating. when a league wide stat goes from 18% to 30+% it is a trend. i don't like it, but it certainly does make for many interesting conversations about the game and how it got to this point.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't believe in coincidence. I think there are causal factors for everything. Trends are worth noticing. It's why I expect Phillips to decline for the 4th straight year. The RBI last year was only because 2 of the top 3 OBP players were hitting in front of him. He's hit 18 HR each of the last 4 years, and he's 32...I expect a decline there too. If he was going to hit more HR, probably would have previous to 33 years old. Ludwick is 36- nuff said.

I too hope Frazier, Cozart improve. Their minor league stats and ages 26-27, don't suggest a large improvement offensively is likely though. Hamilton and Mesoraco have better chances over the next 2-3 years, IMO.

I think it's likely Bruce is still improving, and although I think Votto can hit for higher BA, he may never hit 30HR again.

I like the pitching though. I believe all the starters except Leake (who is likely to have already had his career best last year) still have upside, even though they've been impressive already. Chapmans ceiling may only be limited by his health, and a role outside his control. It's only because of their relative fastballs that I think Leake and Chapman are upside opposites. They both have plenty of time.

IMO, the Reds need another hitter ( or improvement from ones they have)preferably a 3b or LF...and they have to have a quality LHSP. If not, I don't believe they can win more than 86-87 games.

 

[JohnU]

The general value of the modern metrics, which really do have to be crunched down to Bull Durham English despite the wrath of folks who despise RBI.

First off, RBI is a valuable stat -- and it's the ONLY stat I care about for 7-8 hitters in a lineup. Their job is to drive in runs. They should not be in the BABIP discussion or the OPS+ discussion or the wWAR discussion. They should just drive in runs and churn the lineup.

Second, advanced metrics all but eliminate the "miracle player" who, in our fiction and fantasy, is a Calico Joe that nobody ever heard of -- and who gets that one shot in a million and suddenly proves to everyone that talent is not that easy to recognize.

That sort of player just will not happen again, Yasiel Puig be damned. Of course, Puig was no mystery.

 

[chico ruiz]

i'm not sure your phillips analysis is accurate 1507. in fact, outside of catchers, i think age 30 to 35 tends to be position players most productive years. that's assuming they stay relatively healthy. brandon's numbers have stayed steady since he was 25. couple that with him being asked to hit in different batting order positions, and you have a very consistent player overall. it's hard to find another player who has batted 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 throughout his career and had that kind of success. i think the 'phillips is declining' argument has been way overblown. i'd like to see his doubles and OBP go up. i could care less about his dinger total. more contact. more contact. more contact. i don't care if the ball only travels 5 to10 feet. so, you can put whatever disclaimer you want to on phillip's rbi total from last year. as john points out, it's a valuable stat that reflects production. he also played hurt for 1/3 of the season. without phillips the reds don't win 90 games in 2013. i expect phillips will be even better in 2014.