Can Felix hold it together in August and September?

[seahawksfan234]

Felix is obviously having a career year and if the season ended today would likely claim the AL Cy Young, but can he keep this performance up? The past 3 years he has seen a huge drop in production during the final two months of the season.

Take a look...

Before August 1, 2013: 22 GS 2.34 ERA
After August 1, 2013: 9 GS 5.15 ERA

Before August 1, 2012: 22 GS 2.79 ERA
After August 1, 2012: 11 GS 3.62 ERA (6.62 ERA in his final 6 starts of 2012)

The past two seasons, Felix has struggled near the end of the year. Perhaps that is due to not playing on a playoff team, but in 2012 and 2013 Felix had a legitimate chance at the Cy Young going into August and looked bad in at the end of the year. I'm hoping that Felix continues pitching like this, the man deserves another Cy Young.

 

[Logicallylethal]

Felix had the 2012 Cy young in the bag too. Felix should have at least two or three under his belt. The year Greinke won, I thought Felix was more deserving.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Its a legitimate concern for sure. Especially since Felix has more IP and pitches thrown through July this year then the previous two.

Through July
2014: 23 starts, 165.1 IP, 5 110+ pitch games, 2371 total pitches thrown
2013: 22 starts, 153.2 IP, 3 110+ pitch games, 2284 total pitches thrown
2012: 22 starts, 155.0 IP, 6 110+ pitch games, 2288 total pitches thrown

Obviously all innings and pitches arent equal given the nature of the current game situation however it seemed like Lloyd has being careful but obviously the numbers say he is has thrown more.

What I would hang our hats on the fact that he is a year older and a year wiser and seems to be healthier then he was last year. I know he had the back issue towards the end of last year. Also if I remember correctly he lost 30 pounds over the off season last year and gained strength in his lower body. I have confidence he will keep it going because he is at the top of his game right now but we will see.

 

[cezero]

Crazy numbers.

Look at this, though from Peter Gammons a couple weeks back.

Felix Hernandez?s Filthy, Filthy Changeup - GammonsDaily.com

What’s most helped Hernandez over his stretch of dominance has been his changeup, a pitch he’s thrown at a 33.7% frequency over his most recent 11 starts — higher than any of his other offerings, and in a diverse repertoire that includes a four-seam fastball, sinker, curve, slider and cutter, no less. Including last night’s start, opponents now own a ridiculously insane and mind-bogglingly low .279 OPS against the pitch since May 18. So, it’s really no surprise that 34.7% of his 101 pitches thrown Friday were changes

Should help a little.

 

[Podunkparte]

Who's taking it from him at this point?

Tanaka - No
Sale - As long as Felix pitches the rest of the way, no because of Sale's missed time
Kazmir is probably the closest and he has a higher ERA with 35 less innings pitched to this point.

There's still some time to go, but if Felix wants the award again, he's gonna win it. He pitches so well in meaningful games, and hopefully we'll be playing some of those late this season, which hasn't been the case in recent years.

 

[Banned 10x]

difference this year is that he has something to pitch for. I fully expect him to continue throughout the end of the season on the same pace he's on.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Felix had the 2012 Cy young in the bag too. Felix should have at least two or three under his belt. The year Greinke won, I thought Felix was more deserving.

I don't see it...

Greinke- 16-8 record, 2.16 ERA (205 ERA+), 1.07 WHIP, 51BB/242K, 6 CG, 3 shutouts
Felix ---- 19-5 record, 2.49 ERA (171 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, 71 BB/217K, 2 CG, 1 shutout

Unless record is a large part of your criteria, Greinke has a better case IMO.

 

[cezero]

I don't see it...

blah blah blah blah blah

Yanks trolls are everybody's favorite.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I want to agree with LogicallyLethal, but Zach Greinke had the better year. Felix had a great year, but Greinke was better in every meaningful statistic. A lot of other years, Felix wins with those stats.

 

[Logicallylethal]

True about Greinke

My original post was probably a tad bit biased lol. If Greinke didn't deserve it the first year then Felix doesn't win it the year he wins it.

 

[dude82]

So far, so good...

 

[seahawksfan234]

True about Greinke

My original post was probably a tad bit biased lol. If Greinke didn't deserve it the first year then Felix doesn't win it the year he wins it.

Greinke had a great year. Normally Felix would win the Cy Young with the stats he had that year, so I don't blame you for feeling that way.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Yanks trolls are everybody's favorite.

Yea, it's a shame that my baseball knowledge exceeds that of posting frequently in a Derek Jeter strikeout thread, no?

 

[gohusk]

McClendon's doing a good job of keeping his pitch count down. He was bad the last two seasons late but Wedge had no problem just letting him stay out there at 120+ when he was clearly tiring. And his control on his off-speed stuff has gotten better every season. He's got 4 A pitches in his bag of tricks that all look the same coming out of his hands so he doesn't have to throw the 95+ MPH fastball to dominate hitters.

 

[dude82]

So far this August, he has an ERA of something like 1.20 in two starts. I don't think he's necessarily going to keep up his current pace for all of the next six weeks, but I'd be surprised if he suddenly started getting lit up like he has in August and/or September over the last couple of years.

I think the biggest reason why Felix is likely to avoid any big late-season struggles this year is the bullpen's effectiveness. McClendon's been able to keep Felix's pitch count down and give him an extra day of rest here-and-there, but he's only been able to do that because he has the best bullpen in the league. Last year's pen had the 4th worst ERA, 4th most blown saves, 4th worst saves percentage, 2nd worst percentage of inherited-runners scoring and 3rd most losses in relief in the American League. By contrast, this year's bullpen has the best ERA (it's not really that close), least blown saves, best saves percentage, 4th best percentage of inherited runners scoring and tied for 4th most losses in relief in the American League. That last stat ranking is still too high for my liking, but I think some of that can be attributed to the offense. Even so, this year's bullpen has been light years better than last year's and Lloyd knows that he can count on them when he needs them more often than not. So does Felix.

 

[blstoker]

McClendon's doing a good job of keeping his pitch count down. He was bad the last two seasons late but Wedge had no problem just letting him stay out there at 120+ when he was clearly tiring. And his control on his off-speed stuff has gotten better every season. He's got 4 A pitches in his bag of tricks that all look the same coming out of his hands so he doesn't have to throw the 95+ MPH fastball to dominate hitters.

People have been talking about pitch counts like this year has been better than last. Last season, after 25 starts (which, coincidentally, Felix had his 25th start of the year for both 2013 and 2014 on August 11) Felix was 12-5 with a 2.44 ERA and had thrown a total of 2600 pitches. This year, he's 13-3 with a 1.95 ERA and has thrown a total of 2564 pitches. That's a 34 pitch difference, not a big deal.

Also, it's become common lately to bash Wedge for issues last year, and though I have no issue with it most of the time, this time is just wrong. Last year, Felix's highest pitch count was 114, a count he has reached 3 times this season and surpassed once. Wedge did let Felix throw over 120 twice in 2012 (both pretty early) but in both games Felix was dealing (17 innings, 0 runs, 25 Ks, 1 Sho). 2011 is a different story, but since Felix never really threatened to have a sub 3 ERA that year, that's a whole different beast.

Felix has worn down the last couple seasons, but that doesn't appear to be because of excessive pitch counts, at least it's no more indication that it won't happen this season if it was because of pitch counts. Felix is the team ace, he is the guy who will and should be asked to pitch a high count if the team needs it, but Wedge didn't ask him to do so his last 2 years any more than McClendon has (or at least not that much more). Here's hoping he bucks the trend and finishes the season with a sub 2 ERA.

 

[dude82]

Maybe it isn't so much the number of pitches or innings he's thrown, but the amount of stress in those pitches and innings. He gets so little run support and has gotten, in years prior to this one, so little help from the bullpen that he probably tried to be perfect every time he went out there for the last few years. That can take a lot out of you over a 6-month period and get you to a point where, once something goes wrong, it's hard to get it going right again. I know that he's the ace and that aces are expected to be able to push through that kind of stuff, but when you have to do it year-after-year, it can get to even the best of the best.

At least this year he has a bullpen he can rely on and can air it out more and not have to worry about going the distance every time out just to have a chance. The offense still isn't there for him as often as it needs to be, but I think by having a reliable bullpen and a manager who can sense when maybe he could use an extra day every now and then, there's not the pressure to be perfect all the time like there was in the past. I guess we'll see how the rest of the season plays out, but I don't think it's as simple as just the number of innings or pitches, because as you pointed out, stoker, there hasn't been much difference between this year and previous years in those categories.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Bumping this thread due to the sudden relevance of it.

Obviously Felix was unlikely to continue his godly pace, but given the extra rest that McClendon gave him and his poor last 3 starts, I have to wonder if there is something to this end of season slump that Felix suffers from every single year.

Here are the stats from his previous 3 starts:
8/29: 7 IP 10 H 5 ER 4 HR 1 BB 1 SO
8/22: 5.2 IP 5 H 3 ER 1 HR 2 BB 7 SO
8/16: 5 IP 7 H 2 ER 1 HR 0 BB 3 SO
Total: 17.2 IP 22 H 10 ER 6 HR 3 BB 11 SO (5.23 ERA 1.45 WHIP)

As referenced in my original post, Felix has managed to pitch himself out of a Cy Young award the past two seasons due to extremely poor finishes, it would be a shame to see him do that again this year. Although if he continues pitching like this, Chris Sale may emerge as the stronger candidate.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Nice bounce back performance today. Here are his final 4 probable starts assuming no rotation changes going forward. I know with this team that's a foolish assumption

9/8 vs. Astros
9/14 vs. A's
9/19 @ Astros
9/24 @ Blue Jays

Also lines him up to pitch game #163 should they make it that far.

 

[Itsmytime]

I think my prayers were answered!