Baserunning

[JohnU]

Again, I only know what I observe and don't spend much time analyzing.
Seems like the Reds offensive strategy was to hit the first pitch because it was likely to be a FB strike.
I guess if I am the pitcher and I know this because the scouting reports make it clear, I have a bit of an edge.
Now, I agree that if the first pitch is one you can hammer, by all means ... hammer it.

I don't think Cozart and Frazier are lost causes, mainly because both of them have a Z in their name. That's rare and should be exploited.
Seriously, I don't expect miracles -- one or two hits more a week by everybody would really matter. And by a hit, I generally mean -- just be on base.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

A Z in their name.....LOL

You are funny John.....or maybe it's just late. I'll go with funny for now.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Cozart stole bases in the minors and hasn't in MLB because:

1. He got steal signals in the minors.

2. Minor leaguers percieved as MLB role players often get to show a variety of skills viewed as potential assets to offset deficiencies such as power or contact rates. When he arrived on MLB, he was given a defined role.

3. His above average speed is more effective against average minor leaguers than average Big Leaguers, and the more narrow the MLB managers assigned role for a player, the fewer skills are attempted. Dusty wanted Cozart to play D and hit a few homers... not bunt, not steal, not hit the other way for the 2nd out if the inning...That's what he tried to do. Votto CAN steal bases, but if his manager doesn't want him to, he isn't going to steal 20 on his own.

8 hitters are simply the guy you want coming to the plate less than every other position player in the lineup. It's usually the worst hitter, although many don't want the catcher to beat up resources (legs and lungs) needed more catching than the infrequent offense is worth. If you have to have a pitcher up next, a 2 out single or walk in front of the pitcher isn't worth much usually- a guy that can hit a solo homer occasionally is a bonus. Sounds like Cozart doesn't it ?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree with most of what you posted 1507 with exception of the value of a 2 out hit or walk from the 8 hitter. The value in the 8 hitter reaching base is not having the pitcher lead off the next inning.

I like the lead off hitter leading off as opposed to batting with 1 out which is the case 80%+ when the pitcher leads off the inning.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Agreed. I'd like an 8 hitter to lead off with a double !

 

[JohnU]

I suppose the nature of a batting order is dependent on a lot of variables but the pitcher does come to bat in the NL, and I always like when he gives a good at-bat. This may not be a bunt or even anything but a strikeout. Foul off a couple, it helps. Mainly putting the ball in play is ideal.

Reds pitchers, for the most part, were better than average at putting the ball in play, though that's a perception, not a metric.

But I think that the mentality of the No. 8 hitter being something akin to a pack mule is dated in the 1950s. I want that pitcher working HARD to get every hitter out, hold every runner on and assume that every runner is going to take an extra base. Giving away outs is really pointless.

In the 8 hitter can't hit, we need to be looking for somebody who can. Cozart CAN hit .250 at times, .310 at times and .120 at times. Depends on who's pitching, mainly, because he's a lifetime .240 hitter. He will at times go 9 for 13 and turn around and go a week without a pop fly.


The ongoing discussion about the value of the sac bunt is legitimate. Confine it to a couple of pitchers.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I like the opposition doing things they don't want to do. The more that happens, the more we win. The idea is to get our boys good at doing things the opposition doesn't want to deal with.

It's pretty simple on the surface. First, do yourself no harm. Play defense and pitch well. Make mistakes help you not the other team. Offense is about scoring more than the other team...teams that don't play D and pitch have to score more than they give up, a futile exercise.

Every SP is on a pitch count. The better they are, the more important that is. Taking balls and fouling off strikes gets you to that lesser reliever sooner. Our pitchers can't give up 3 extra outs a game unless they can always score another run or three to make up for it. Most can't.

Every team makes at least 24 outs, 27 if your on the road (where playing .500 is the goal) or losing at home ( not the goal ). Keep track of how many runs are produced with your outs. Increase that number, and you don't need as many late inning heroics to beat teams. Baserunners should be assets to hitters, not distractions or handicaps.

Hitters need to be aggressive in their personal wheelhouse, and take best advantage of what is given them otherwise. Advancing runners increases odds of scoring them, especially if the bad guys have to keep issuing situationsl walks to keep a guy at 1b...a lone runner at 2b is an opportunity to score, but the D looks at a lone runner at 1b as an opportunity for a DP. Getting to 2b without making an out is the goal, always. A double, a steal, a single and a walk is just as good. I like odds of scoring there better than the odds of a 2 out 2 run homer, but if you play your cards right, you might just get a few more pressured pitches that result in 3 run jobs as a bonus.

It's a philosophy- a way of offense, that kicks the shit out of mostly scoring on 2 out hits and solo homers.

 

[chico ruiz]

not to mention it is a heck of a lot more fun to watch. i was left with mouth gaping, ensuing yawn, and subsequent sleep watching the reds last year. the cozart (no steals thing) was a head scratcher. little or no action, on the whole, for the entire season. btw, i haven't read any posts with opinions on the new replay format or home plate collision rules on this board. i'm getting sleepy thinking about them right now. might have to take a nap. what are they doing to my beloved game? but, price says they will run. it's the most exciting part of the game to me. causes havoc and creates mistakes. i just want the reds to be watchable again. win / lose, if they're aggressive and forcing the game, rather then letting it come to them, i'll watch. strike out, walk, home run, dead ball, dead air, dead game. i think i heard a pin drop at gabp last year.

 

[JohnU]

Eventually there is going to be a play at the plate and '99 Rams and his associated trolls will start flooding the board with how the guy tried to kill Yadi and we will spend the next 4 years hearing about it. The "discussion" about the rule will be even more tedious than Benghazi Benghazi Benghazi.

The replay rule is only slightly less banal.

I think baseball fans who know slightly more than their CBS login name are mostly OK with the definitions: Make the game safe because we can, let's get the play right, because we can. That's called maturation of a society.

I suppose we could start a thread on it. Feel free.

I did see one play in Wednesday's game where the catcher seemed tentative but that could have just been (a.) rust (b.) a poor effort or (c.) don't get hurt on the first game in spring training.

My problem is that Selig will get credit for this and he's the last person on the planet who should get credit for anything.

 

[JohnU]

I do need to add, watching Phillips jam his thumb in 2nd base on Wednesday, that trying to steal 2nd base need not require surgery. If the Reds are intent on working on their running game, I need to remind them that dislocated shoulders and such are what happens when you can't slide properly.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The plate decision is one of many contrasts in the game. It protects the guy wearing the most protective equipment on the field, but..

It's still ok for a runner to be 4 feet from the bag when he upends a SS.

The same commissioner that looked the other way for 2 decades of PED use is still commissioner, suspending players the Feds find but are somehow overlooked in MLB "random" testing.

MLB will turn in a college kid with an agent if he doesn't sign, but will sign 15 year olds in the Doninican with an agent.

Hmmm.

 

[chico ruiz]

there is also a dehumanization element to that societal maturation process john. baseball is a game, not a camera at a high traffic intersection. i like the human fallibility aspect. i don't want the games lasting longer than they already do. i want to see a manager go berserk over what he perceives as a bad call. home plate collisions and bang-bang plays are the essence, and most compelling parts, of the game. as far as running the bases aggressively in spring training? yes, absolutely. start the winning ways right now. be full out ready to continue the track meet on march 31st v. the cardinals. send yadier & co. a message from the get-go. they are ball players, not porcelain dolls. i believe price reached out to maddon this off-season. instill an attitude, and readiness to attack, for an entire team. we will continue to put pressure on you even if we're up 8-0 in the 7th inning. we want that extra run, and we will do what is necessary to get it. rub their noses in it. if they get upset, all the better. they're more apt to make mistakes. many, on this very board, have identified the reds lack of so-called 'killer instinct' -the last few years- as a big problem. if price wants to change that he has to start right now. use hamilton as a catalyst. the reds actually have above average speed. go full-out from home to first and the rest will fall into place. screw it, put the bat on the ball and run the opposition to death.

 

[JohnU]

There's a stupidity border that exists for any sport, wherein trying to get 12 runs instead of 11 is not worth the risk. When that becomes a trend, I will worry about it.

The thing with a running game and shutting it down 8-0 is that the team that is behind 0-8 isn't shutting down the running game. It just can't manufacture the risk. But if it's suddenly 8-4 on a 3-run dinger and another run, then the team that shut down its running game, emptied its bench, etc. etc., may wish it had not. In a phrase, piss on the unwritten rule. If it's a game you have to win, then win it.

I never believed in the basketball clock-killer, the football pre-vent defense, or the just-get-outs process of baseball. I want to see the Reds win 18-0. Screw it, I do.

But the replay camera isn't going to hurt baseball as much as purists are demanding us believe. Mostly, I just don't think it's necessary and it will only be a big deal when the Yankees and Red Sox have a kumbaya moment. Maybe to enrich it, we can make sure Derek Jeter is involved. (Is he still allowing us to enjoy his every final moment?)

The crash-dummy play at the plate should be easier to deal with but what will matter there is if the coach at 3B and the guy trying to score on a 31-hopper to left field ... here's a play at the plate, here comes the runner, here comes the ball, runner, ball, runner, ball ... holy SHIT, Batman!

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've seen "intimidating" teams without much power. Being aggressive doesnt just mean swinging at first pitches in the dirt...the Ty Cobb type tactic is outdated, but the theory is still very valid...maybe more so with declining herds of rhinos stampeding through the minors without a clue about manufacturing anything except homers and signing bonuses.

You could call the Cardinals last year one of intimidating teams without tremendous power or speed. They did move runners aggressively, and didnt strike out a ton.

I'm a numbers guy. If you can get to the 2b bag doing one thing (sliding) in about 2.0 seconds or a shade over, that doesn't give the opposition much time or margin for error to do 5 things to get you out ( 2 throws, 2 catches and 1 tag). Where the average catcher only throws out 25% of attempts, a speed of light kind of guy like Hamilton might never get thrown out. Dribble a ball into play while he's off, make a bad throw, and you might as well given him an inside the Parker. He has what I used to call three foot triple potential...bunt for a hit and advance to 3b on the throwing error. It's a weapon I hope is used a lot by the Reds this year.

 

[JohnU]

Intimidation is an interesting phenomenon. The minor-league team I follow in Gary hit exactly 20 home runs last year, won the league title and had a right fielder who had 18 triples. I saw them play a game against St. Paul where the pitcher absolutely KNEW they were going to steal every base they could. The guy on second was leaning, the guy on first was leaning ... and it was a question of which pitch they would run.

By the time the pitcher realized there wasn't anything he could do but give his catcher a chance, he was 3-0 on the hitter and still had the runners stealing. A couple of bunts, one steal of home and a squeeze play ...

The term was being "Rail-catted" that the league has known for years. Gary's manager is a believer in small ball, and he literally bleeds his opponents to death.

I saw exactly TWO home runs in Gary by the home team this last year, and one of them was inside-the-park.

Now you can't really get away with that in the majors and I don't even endeavor to suggest you can, but watching small ball if it's done properly is a treat. When you see more steals of home plate than you do home runs, guess what you have to have to win with that?

Pitching, defense, and some brains. Some sheer madness helps. Gary fans have loved it for 10 years.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Is the park the size of Yellowstone ?

 

[JohnU]

Is the park the size of Yellowstone ?

The dimensions are regular except the wind blows off Lake Michigan in from left field. Usually.
Day games, sometimes it's from right field but that's rare.
The power alleys are fairly deep, 408 to the areas just left and right of CF.
Actually, other teams DO hit home runs there, but it is the minor leagues.
The park is also dug into the ground to that the entrance to the stadium is at ground level.
All that conspires. I see balls hit like bazookas just die in front of the warning track.

 

[JohnU]

Gary had a rookie SS named Zac Mitchell, about 5-8 ... less power than a pair of AAA batteries. League rookie who had never hit a HR in his pro career. Playing Winnipeg and in the 5th inning, Zac hits a dinger to right field for his first ever. Comes up in the bottom of the 9th, team down 2 runs, 2 outs ... hits a walk-off HR. He may never hit another one.

That was probably about 30 percent the team's HR's at home for the season.

 

[Redsfan1507]

A benefit to a park like that is it teaches how to play defense. Possible downside is that pitchers think that 89 mph fastball is an outgetter, until the move away and it becomes a gopher ball.

 

[JohnU]

The issue in indy ball is that you have 4 rotation guys, rarely more. If a guy comes out and doesn't have his stuff, you gotta just go with him. Sometimes a guy will give up 6-8 runs and just bulldog it on out to the fifth -- unless his pitch count gets real high. There's not the bullpen, certainly very few situational relievers. Pitchers have to depend on their infielders. Most pitching staffs are 10 deep and guys who can get people out don't hang around too long -- if they're throwing 89 in the zone, the scouts will snatch them.