as a cub fan i'm tired of the losing

[Johnny Sleeper]

Starting the clock, I am mixed. I understand completely the waiting game, but when this regime shows that you get a player like Castro or Rizzo, and you are gonna lock them up thru arbitration years, I dont see the point of holding the kids back when there is a small chance they will reach arbitration.

Even if they are going to buy out their arbitration years and a few years of FA they still can work out a much more team friendly deal if the player has an extra year before he hits FA. If a player doesn't want to work out a long-term deal before they hit FA, and we have several Boras clients who tend to do that, then you have an extra year of them at $8-10M, their last year of arbitration, instead of having to pay them $15-20M, what they would get as an FA at the same time.

You limit the earning potential of the player and help control your long-term costs. It would be different if you were a contender and the team needed that hole filled and the prospect was their best option. If the Cubs were in the position of the Rays going into the season and holding back Myers I would agree with you, because the Rays could have used his bat much earlier in the season. However, with where the Cubs are in the rebuilding I don't see any reason to give up a year of team control when you would, in theory, be competitive for a few months in what will be another rough season, although a more exciting one once some of the kids come up. Guys like Lake, maybe Vitters, maybe Baez and Alcantara late in the season, possibly Olt, etc. The situation has as much to do with as keeping your costs under control long-term.

 

[Devsfan4life95]

Devs, are you against the way they are building the organization or just dislike Theo? If the problem is with the process they are using what alternative would you like to see?

My problem is the hypocrisies that have gone on since the opening press conference where he came in and said "every year is special" "My goal is to win the world series" Then he blows the team to smithereens and doesn't replace one player with a suitable major leaguer worth a damn except for Lee with Rizzo and I'm even skeptical on that right now given his steady decline since around this time last year. My problem is that he says we aren't going to add any FA's then he goes and signs bargain basement (at least it is nowadays) players just to flip them 3 months later. Why sign anybody if you're just using them as trade bait? If you are rebuilding the farm do it thru the draft and let the kids play!

Then he goes and trades what little pieces we have that were in his so-called "prime age" of players he wanted to keep going forward i.e Garza this year,Maholm last year and hell even Soriano at his ripe old age I mean hell ain't we paying most of his salary anyway? This regime had the financial resources to bid to get Cespedes, shit the bed there, so we didn't get him, fine. Could've had Darvish then and we let him go to Texas, like we don't need young pitching here or down on the farm? I am very glad we didn't get PUjols or Hamilton, however Prince Fielder would've fit right in here and would've still been just 30 next year when we should've been starting to go for it but they are showing no signs of even beginning to worry about Chicago, it's all about the minor leagues and I'm tired of it.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Rizzo is a better player then Fielder is TODAY and that gap will grow as Fielder declines in a hurry like his father did. That and Fielder should be a DH. The difference in OPS between Fielder and Rizzo this year is 0.20, .778 to .758, and there is a much larger difference between them on the defensive end that gives Rizzo the advantage. Throw in career curves and no team would rather have Fielder then Rizzo.

What kids should they be letting play? You can't throw fresh draft picks to the wolves and hope they can adjust eventually when they need to develop in the lower levels. Signing short-term players and trading them for draft picks drastically speeds up the building of a farm system. If they hadn't changed the rules on the draft and international spending then you could make the case for spending that money on draft picks and international FAs, but they can't.

They traded Maholm in what will go down as his career year. Garza has had some injury issues and wanted top dollar. If Garza would have signed a reasonable extension then he would have been extended. Instead Garza will get something ridiculous like $18-20M/yr as an FA. Not that I begrudge him for getting the most he can, but he will get that in his declining years with some injury history.

Do you really think adding Fielder to this team would make it any better? Darvish was a blind bid so there is no way they could have known what the magic number was for him, but you really think paying the equivalent of $18M/yr for an unproven pitcher would have been a good idea? All great teams have a great farm system to support them. If you put your focus on the major league team and ignore the minors, as the Cubs did for the decade+ before new ownership then you end up with an occasional trip to the playoffs to get swept.

The last time the Cubs got close to the World Series it was on the back of a strong farm. Wood, Prior, Zambrano along with guys who had been acquired via trade like Sosa, Rammy, etc. It wasn't on the back of overspending for mediocre FAs like Fielder. It was on developing cost controlled players who were great values and supplementing them with a few FAs. The Cubs were in worse shape then the Marlins when the Ricketts bought them and they are now one of the healthiest organizations in baseball and about to have a wave of highly talented kids come up and provide a strong foundation for what is going to be only their first or second legitimate shot at winning the World Series in your lifetime.

 

[anotheridiot]

we will see if the plan is to actually let these kids play here and not just deal them for pieces they need.

With the likes of Baez, Almora, Soler, Olt/Villanueva/Vitters, Alcantara, Bryant, arms like Baker, Arietta, Vizcaino, I dont see the need to sign free agents until these guys prove they cant do it. I just dont say the major league team is improving thru the system if they keep signing 2 year deals to 30 something outfielders when you can field a team of Lake, Ha, BJax or Vitters in a corner next year. You give them that year to sink, if they do, I still think the fans would fill more seats watching them than signing marlon byrd for another year.

Yes, we need work with pitching and catching, but it sure seems like theo would rather buy pitching or refurbish some guys like Baker and Arietta who did start opening day for Baltimore. Vizcaino can be a nice pickup as well. I never liked the Jackson signing I just didnt think a 4 year contract was needed at this stage. I know he eats innings, but a .500 pitcher with a high era, that has played for 7 teams in 8 years tells you something about his character that the teams that had him did not want to commit to him. Theo committed and got mediocre.

I know I have alot of the same thoughts as DF, but not on Fielder. He might hit highlight homers, but when he starts having knee and back trouble, maybe drops 60 pounds on some subway diet to keep his knees under him, he will lose that power. His swing is perfect for pulling quads and shattering heels. But when Garza fits the mold of age and paying players for what they will do not what they have done, you wonder what that mold is. It definitely is not Olt being the centerpiece of the trade. Especially when you got Villanueva and Bryant already.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I agree with a lot of the theory behind letting the kids play, AI, but they have to be ready. Arietta is off to a nice start and if he can keep his BB/9 rate in the 2.5-3 area he could turn around and be a solid starter who put it all together a little late similar to Samardzija. Pitchers tend to take a little longer to develop then hitters.

I think BJax is just done. He tinkered with his approach this off-season and worked on a new swing and it isn't working even after a demotion to AA. Vitters I think had a chance to come back up this season until the injuries pretty much cost him the year as he has only played 33 games. Theo has said he wants players to have 500 PAs in AAA before coming up and Ha is about half way there, 194, so he might get a chance after DeJesus is traded next year or called up in June to put Shierholtz in a 4th OF role. Ha could also end up in a RF platoon with Shierholtz as Ha's splits are significantly better against LHP.

Olt getting playing time is very dependent on his vision. If his vision clears up I expect him to get more time at 3B then anyone else next year. I expect the stop-gap signings for position players to pretty much be done. Although, I'm not sure what your issue with Schierholtz is. He is younger then Garza and is 12th in baseball for fWAR for RFs. Schierholtz is 5th in OPS for NL RFs with 300+ PAs, 7th in all of baseball and one of the guys ahead of him is serving a PED suspension. Vitters and Bryant were both drafted with questions about their ability to stick at 3B. I think Vitters is pretty much done at 3B and I don't expect Bryant to stick there and end up in the OF.

As for the Garza deal there were a lot of rumors at the time that the PTBNL is going to be the best prospect in the deal. We are just going to have to wait and see how that pans out. However, keep in mind that Olt was a top 25 prospect before the season and if his vision clears up he was more then worth being the center piece for Garza. If nothing else it was a great buy-low on Olt as the Rangers wouldn't even consider moving him for Greinke last year at the deadline and the Rangers have given up on a bit hitter a bit early recently in Chirs Davis.

 

[dirtboy068]

this year was a throw away from day one. its all about next year

I wonder how much pressure the owners feel putting a good team on the field 2014.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

this year was a throw away from day one. its all about next year

I wonder how much pressure the owners feel putting a good team on the field 2014.

From the quotes I have read Theo told the owners that this would not be a short process because of how far behind the Cubs were every other team in baseball in terms of scouting, development, information flow, etc and most of Theo's first year on the job was getting each department up to MLB standards. I guess it depends on what you think they can do in 2014 to make the team "good". I tend to agree with AI that we should see a wave of kids next year with Alcantara, Olt, Vitters, Lake, Rizzo, Castro and Jae-Hoon Ha all being 24 or younger and should get some playing time.

Then on the pitching side you have guys like Kyle Hendricks, Barr Loux, Vizcaino and Justin Grimm who will all be 25 or younger and could have roles in the pitching staff. I see most of them as bullpen arms, but Hendricks could end up in the rotation at some point. Vizcaino's health will determine if he ends up as a bullpen arm or if he can handle a starter's load. I think he ends up being unable to handle the work load of a starter and ends up in the bullpen like Kerry Wood, Isringhausen and Papelbon did and they had good careers in the bullpen after their bodies wouldn't let them be big league starters. I also like Rafael Dolis, although he will be 26 next year, as a bullpen arm. Dolis reminds me of Marmol, very hard thrower with occasional control issues, but I think he will end up a solid 7th inning type not a high pressure situation guy, but a solid hold a lead or keep the game tied in the 6th/7th most of the time type.

I expect next year to be another "throw away", but with more youth. If the ownership is putting pressure on the front office to make a big headline splash in the winter I could see them going after Cano or Shin-Shoo Choo. Either one would be a good fit, but it would mean that some prospects would have to go soon as they would have no place to play and they have a lot of guys who are going to be ready in the next two years not just their big four of Baez, Soler, Bryant and Almora, but several others that are fringe top 100 prospects or former top 50 prospects like Alcantara, Olt, Vitters, Ha, Szczur, Villanueva, etc. Some of those guys are finally hitting AA and while it is unlikely they jump from AA to the majors the ones in AAA will have to go somewhere to make room for the promotions to AAA.

 

[anotheridiot]

Castro came up from AA, so I dont think its improbable to think some of them might skip AAA. All I am saying is I think more fans would pay to watch kids than picking up more never made it bigger names. Maybe Castro would not be struggling now with more experience of 500 AAA plate appearances, but it sure seems like the way they handle the big league adjustments all happen at the big league level and really does not have much to do with what happens in the minors.

And BJax was told to change his approach once he got to the big leagues. He was striking out a ton regardless, so by the time he got to the bigs it seems to be too late. If the plate appearances and adjustments dont happen by AA, it doesnt look like its gonna happen. AAA just seems to be the holding area for some AAAA position players with no real future and pitchers that are a bus ride away to get to town to work a few days.

 

[Devsfan4life95]

I'm sick to death of "throw away" years. 3 is too many it's time to get started IMO. I'm telling you, if they throw next year away too it may be time to go find greener pastures.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I'm sick to death of "throw away" years. 3 is too many it's time to get started IMO. I'm telling you, if they throw next year away too it may be time to go find greener pastures.

What does this mean? Are you Cubs fan or someone who jumps from team to team based on who they think can win?

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

Castro came up from AA, so I dont think its improbable to think some of them might skip AAA. All I am saying is I think more fans would pay to watch kids than picking up more never made it bigger names.

I don't disagree that it is possible for a player to skip AAA and be fine, although it depends on the player. However, Theo has stressed that he wants the players to have around 500 PAs in AAA before coming up it looks like he did the same in Boston. Pedroia had 733 PAs in AAA, Ellsbury had 401 and Josh Reddick had 791. It just seems to be the way Theo believes players should be brought along and that could be from how he was taught by Lucchino or it could have to do with his own studying of historical trends and that players who spend the time in AAA are less likely to bust when they reach the majors.

Junior Lake only had 170 PAs in AAA and was never a top prospect. So it obviously isn't a hard rule. We'll see what happens with Baez and Soler next year as that will give us a better idea of how Theo will handle top prospects and calling them up. The thing with Castro is he is so special that he is in his 4th season and is only three DAYS older then Lake. I think that gets forgotten at times that Castro is still very young and that shows at times.

 

[ChicagoIrish]

I'm sick to death of "throw away" years. 3 is too many it's time to get started IMO. I'm telling you, if they throw next year away too it may be time to go find greener pastures.

Lol

 

[ChicagoIrish]

Maybe you should join the Cardinals fan base. Or better yet, you seem like a good Red Sox/Yankees fan.

 

[Devsfan4life95]

I meant that in the context of me finding something better to do then watch baseball. I can't stand any of the teams you mentioned.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I meant that in the context of me finding something better to do then watch baseball. I can't stand any of the teams you mentioned.

What do you think they should do this off-season? Outside of doing something crazy like trading Baez, Vogelbach, Amaya and other prospects to the Rays for David Price along with adding some FAs like Cano and Choo, which would be about $80M in salary for 3 players, how do you make this team competitive without waiting another year for Baez, Soler, Almora and Bryant to be ready in 2015? The core pieces the Cubs had when they were sold were all at the end of their careers. Guys like Lee, Rammy, Soriano, Dempster, Wood, Zambrano and Marmol were all in decline and there was nothing on the farm to replace them with and a ton of money on the books because of them.

I understand the frustration of not wanting to watch a team lose 90+ games and I've only watched about one or two games a week this year and generally not the whole game. However, I don't see a realistic way to make the team competitive next year due to the number of holes the Cubs have. There is really not much different I can say they could have done that would change things. The team and organization were just in that bad of shape.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well, we have Javier Baez tearing up all leagues, with 31 bombs this season, but castros mind cramp, (I wont say brain lol) will keep all the kids down since Theo blamed Castro not having enough development, that should push this back another year or two.

 

[Smart]

There's no need to buy anyone yet. We are still two years away in rebuilding mode. We have our long-term infield:

1B: Anthony Rizzo
C: Wellington Castillo
SS: Javier Baez
2B: Starlin Castro
3B: Kris Bryant

I like Schierholtz and Soler in two outfield positions in the long-term. This team has the potential talent to become an upper-level team. The focus now needs to be on development. If six of seven of these eight can develop as much as we hope, we'll have a top five offense in 2015. At that point, you go out and buy depth. Hopefully, another pitcher develops to be a solid #3 to go along with Travis Wood as a #2. We would thus need to go out and buy a #1 pitcher, and we's be true World Series contenders. There's no need to rush.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

I don't see them being related. Castro is still only 23 and it seems like he just stopped trying to work on improvements after his first two and a half years went so well. Baez probably starts next year in AAA and comes up at some point next season at 21. I'm interested in what they will do with Soler next season as if he hadn't gotten injured he probably is in AA with Baez right now. Hopefully, he will accomplish what they need to see in the fall to start next year in AAA, but I figure he is going to start in AA and then get promoted around mid-season.

Almora probably starts next year in high A then finishes in AA with his AAA time in 2015. Kris Bryant is also killing it right now and could start next year in AA and finish the year in AAA. I could see Bryant, Soler and Almora all come up together in early 2015. That would, theoretically, give you a wave of prospects next year in Olt, Baez, Vitters and Alcantara all getting playing time in various capacities then in 2015 another wave with Almora, Bryant and Soler.

 

[Johnny Sleeper]

There's no need to buy anyone yet. We are still two years away in rebuilding mode. We have our long-term infield:

1B: Anthony Rizzo
C: Wellington Castillo
SS: Javier Baez
2B: Starlin Castro
3B: Kris Bryant

You think Bryant sticks at 3B? There were questions about that going into the draft and his bat is good enough that he can play RF/LF and still be a plus bat. With the number of infield prospects between Baez, Alcantara, Amaya, Candelario, Villanueva and Olt I just don't see Bryant making at 3B since they have so many better defensive options who can also hit. An OF of Bryant-Almora-Soler would be very good.

I also don't expect them to keep Schierholtz past this season. He is arbitration eligible this year so he will be a cheap option in RF until they have another prospect ready to come up then both he and DeJesus can be traded as expiring contracts next year. Szczur probably comes up at some point next year and Vitters, who an .891 OPS in AAA this year, probably gets an audition in LF if he can stay healthy. There is still a slim chance that BJax can recover.

The abundance of prospects, especially in the infield, that should be ready by mid-2015 is a good probably to have. It gives them options for what skill set they would prefer at the positions and some extra to trade to fill other holes like the rotation. I haven't even mentioned Vogelbach who just got jumped to Daytona and continues to crush the ball.

 

[anotheridiot]

All I am saying is there seems to be little future with Ha, BJax and Junior lake, so it does not hurt us to play them next season. If Vitters is healthy, he can play out there too. I dont think Bryant sticks at third, but most have him going to right field, not left. I dont understand that, especially in Wrigley, but they put the All Star first baseman LaHair out in right and he didnt do terrible. I would rather see a full time outfielder with a gun like Soler being considered for Right field instead, let Vitters and Bryant have left field.

Original thoughts were Lake would be the platoon with Shierholtz in right next year, so maybe he will split time in right and center and leave Vitters out in left field for now. I just dont see the thought process to bringing in more betterans, to deal at the deadline, for more prospects, that will just slow down our prospects we have now.

I would shut down Olt right now. Get him out of baseball for a while, give his brain time to heal. He is doing nothing but getting frustrated now, the brain is either still swelled or there is a buildup of fluid somewhere effecting his vision. Its more than a baseball decision, its a life decision for Olt. See what happens in spring training and give him the opportunity to start at third base next year. Pretty sure his service time is already ticking with Texas playing him in the big leagues, but if he earns a payday with arbitration, let him have it. Otherwise, its gonna be Baez or Villanueva at third base anyway and arby will be some other teams problem.

I dont know, the Bryant pick really was odd, since they needed pitching. I dont know if any later than second pick is gonna be a ML top of the rotation guy, but Theo likes the too many cocks in the henhouse scenario in every position but pitching it seems. Had Soler as our cf of the future, took almora. But hey, odds are they are all gonna be AAAA players anyhow, so why keep getting our hopes up.