2013 Pirates

[redlegs@hokies]

Reds fan here, just wanted to get an idea on what the Pirate faithful are expecting this year(I know its early but opening day is still too far). You seem to have a decent nucleus to build around (well, anyone would with McCutchen at the center) and some tough pitching. Where do you all see the Pirates/ Central in 2013? Thoughts?

 

[Darkstone42]

Reds fan here, just wanted to get an idea on what the Pirate faithful are expecting this year(I know its early but opening day is still too far). You seem to have a decent nucleus to build around (well, anyone would with McCutchen at the center) and some tough pitching. Where do you all see the Pirates/ Central in 2013? Thoughts?

The consensus vibe I've picked up from the board recently is that anything could happen. As mags mentioned in another thread, anything from 65-95 wins would be unsurprising.

That said, I think the Pirates have a slightly worse season this year than last, but finish third or fourth in the division, behind the Reds and either one or both of the Cards and Brewers.

 

[Burns80y]

I am higher on the Pirates this year than anytime in recent memory. I think they end the streak and win 85 games.

 

[thedddd]

They have more depth in pitching which is saying a lot vs years past.

But the one thing that is going to be hard for them is to replace the 12 wins against the Astros when the rest of the division they had a .421 record. To which for the most part they stayed the same or got better. Without the Astros there is no "guaranteed" win so unless you can win inside this division they are a 4th or 5th place team.

 

[Illinest]

I think wandy will be solid. Pitch like a #3 starter. Burnett could be good again but he's a #2 when he's good and there's no guarantee he'll repeat his performance. I'm nervous about him.

I think that the pirates are hoping to use russell martin to improve everyone's ERA, which seems preposterous to me but i'll allow them a chance to try it before i shit all over it. Liriano is a good pitcher when he doesn't walk people and martin's big skill is supposedly his pitch framing. Match made in heaven or another cheapified attempt to win without spending money to acquire real talent?

I do think that there's a chance they'll break the streak. There's enough talent in the lineup that it wouldn't be a shock, but we would still need a lot of things to fall neatly into place and if there's one thing our twenty year losing streak has taught me it's that something usually messes up.

 

[thecrow124]

Well in all honesty I expect very little. I think the 2 months of offense we showed last year was an abberition. I do not expect it to be duplicated for any period of time.

Pitching will not be good. AJ is old and because of that is impossible to predict. Wandy is in decline. McDonald is probably closer to his second half numbers than his first half. Karstens is good for about half a season. Liriano is not a good pitcher.

So all that being said I think we will hit homeruns and I think we will strike out a lot offensively, but not score much. I think our pitchers will strike out a lot of hitters, but not really limit runs. Combine that and I just don't think we will be very good.

 

[magnumo]

I see Cincy and St. Louis finishing a solid 1st and 2nd in the NL Central. After that, throw the other three teams in a hat. Any could shake out in any position.... 3rd, 4th, or last. If everything goes right for our Bucs, they might challenge Cincy and St. Louis..... but that's a very big "if." On the other hand, it would not surprise me at all if the Pirates come in last, while Milwaukee and Chicago battle it out for 3rd and 4th in the division.

 

[redlegs@hokies]

The pirates and brewers seem like wildcards, either one could rise up and play great ball or just hold serve for the season. How strong is the pirates minors system/ any big prospects expected to come through? Its tough having to wait for baseball with football practically over now.

 

[Illinest]

Well we are hoping to add Cole to our starting rotation about mid-season.

And not that anyone is counting on anything too substantial from him but our mini-Halladay is supposed to be returning to the lineup around that time. I'm talking about Charlie Morton of course.

I think that the starting rotation should be solid by the end of the year one way or another. I'm counting on Cole but I think he's talented enough that it's okay to count on him.

 

[magnumo]

The pirates and brewers seem like wildcards, either one could rise up and play great ball or just hold serve for the season. How strong is the pirates minors system/ any big prospects expected to come through? Its tough having to wait for baseball with football practically over now.

Most current reports indicate that the Pirates' minor league system has improved from near the bottom to solidly in the upper half of MLB. In the rankings I've seen lately, they come in anywhere between 8th and 12th. The problem I see with that ranking is that most of our high-ceiling prospects are years away from the majors.

I agree with Illinest's post..... the only "big prospect" who is knocking at the door is Gerrit Cole, who may be ready to step into the Pirates' rotation by mid-season. The bad news is that most Pirate fans expect our rotation to be a strength without Cole.

 

[element1286]

Another small improvement on last year, which will probably push them over the .500 mark.

 

[Etrius24]

88 wins

 

[Illinest]

The perfectly whelming offseason of the Pirates - Baseball Nation

This guy posted a chart here, it shows year to year progression per position from 2010 to 2013. The rest of the article is reasonable but this chart is what I wanted to focus on.

C - Doumit to Martin
Well we had a catcher in Doumit who could hit reasonably well when healthy but he was not a very good defender. In Martin we have a weaker hitter but a pretty good defender. In spite of the difference in OPS between the two I feel that this is a net gain.

1B - Clement to Jones
This is a huge increase. Jones is better than Clement in just about every way. Jones was listed in the OF on the 2010 team btw. We also have a competent RH platoon partner in Sanchez. Big upgrade here.

2B - Iwamura to Walker
Another huge increase. I remember feeling hopeful about Iwamura but he turned out to be worse than I ever would've imagined. Walker is a much better player than that version of Iwamura

SS - Cedeno to Barmes
I don't like either of them but I prefer Barmes. Barmes at least has the bona fide glove.

3B - Laroche to Alvarez
Remember Andy Laroche? It's okay if you don't. I think that most of us have reflexively blocked him from memory to protect our psyche. He was a better gloveman than Pedro but all in all an utter failure as a 3Bman.
The only qualification I have to make about 3B is that I yelled angrily when they dumped Bautista. I won't say that I expected him to become a premiere slugger but I thought that he was under-appreciated and worth keeping even if he never contributed more than mid .700s

LF - Milledge to Marte
Another probable upgrade, probably a big one. Milledge was supposed to be a little of everything but after having seen both players I can't imagine what Milledge ever did that Marte won't be able to do ten times better. There is of course still the chance of a bust but I feel pretty confident about Marte so I'm not too worried

CF - McC to McC
The only holdover.

RF - Jones to whoever
This is the only downgrade among the position players. It's possible that one of the options will perform well enough to equal Jones' production, so there is that at least.

SP1 - Duke to Burnett
LOL

SP2 - Ohlendorf to Rodriguez
LOL2

SP3 - Maholm to McDonald
Seems like it's most likely a lateral move unless McDonald shows us more of that ace-type stuff he was flashing in the first half of 2012.

SP4 - Morton to Liriano
I don't even know. Morton wasn't yet transformed into Halladay Lite at the time. He was a total wild-card who didn't even have the past success of Liriano to feel optimistic about. I'll call it a wash

SP5 - Burres to Karstens/Locke/McPherson/Cole
Ranges from minor upgrade all the way up to biggest upgrade that is scientifically possible. Science.


So then you have bullpen which seems okay again. Replaced Hanrahan with Marcum from last season but it's hard to compare bullpens with other bullpens so I won't bother.


There you have it. Improvement, in many cases big improvement at every position except for 1.

 

[magnumo]

Illinest,

While I agree with most of your comments, I submit that it would be hard for the 2013 Pirates NOT to be a significant improvement over the 2010 Pirates. The vast majority of all MLB teams of all-time would be a significant improvement over the 2010 Pirates.

I think it's worth noting that 2010 was the Pirates' 3rd full season under Huntington, since he was hired in September 2007. Seems that any comparison should be made to the 2007 or 2008 Pirates. I know folks will say that the Pirates' system was in terrible shape when Huntington took over (and I agree with that). Nevertheless, that should be the comparison, rather than the 2010 Pirates. The team NH put on the field in 2010 was a DISGRACE. He tore down the existing team after 2007 (which needed to be done) but failed to get decent value for the players he traded away. Had he won most of those trades (as previous successful rebuilding GM's have done), we wouldn't have the awful 2010 Pirates to compare to.

 

[steelparrot]

I know he has to many games played to be a 'prospect', but Marte has a super high ceiling. Him breaking out at the big league level would be a huge boost to our future.

I think the Martin upgrade is pretty huge. His career obp is avg + .82, so all he has to do is bat 250+ to get his obp around .350.

I know this doesnt show up in statistics, but Barajas is so slow, his opb has to be discounted imho. When a player is on the extreme ends of the speed range, it affects scoring runs by an large amount.

 

[Darkstone42]

I think this is as good a place as any to drop this...


Cutch's face at the end cracked me up the first time. I saw it this morning and almost spit out my cereal.

 

[stillmatic32]

Very good write up Illinest. I expect them to break the losing streak this year, but I did midway through last year as well. I think a big part of this season is going to be on Marte. If everyone else stays relatively close to last year's production, the offense is one player away (Marte) from being a strong offense. Everyone else we pretty much know what we are getting.

If Marte hits around .290/335 with 12 home runs and Pedro improves, that is the improvement the Buccos need to get over the hump. I think it is very likely.

As far as pitching there are at on of options and hopefully that can provide 5 solid starting pitchers at a time. Cole will be a strong addition around June/July, I hope.

A few more weeks and we get to see what this team has.

 

[thedddd]

Very good write up Illinest. I expect them to break the losing streak this year, but I did midway through last year as well. I think a big part of this season is going to be on Marte. If everyone else stays relatively close to last year's production, the offense is one player away (Marte) from being a strong offense. Everyone else we pretty much know what we are getting.

If Marte hits around .290/335 with 12 home runs and Pedro improves, that is the improvement the Buccos need to get over the hump. I think it is very likely.

As far as pitching there are at on of options and hopefully that can provide 5 solid starting pitchers at a time. Cole will be a strong addition around June/July, I hope.

A few more weeks and we get to see what this team has.

If both of those occur then yeah I see a good chance but that goes with Jones, Walker and McCutchen continue to hit as they are. I really hope Sanchez hits well during the season because if Jones can keep the one side of the platoon this team will be better.

 

[thedddd]

Kovacevic: No way Pirates should keep Cole | TribLIVE

Per this article lets hope they don't mess with Marte's approach to the plate. If he is successful that way then leave it go.

And I love the last section about Sean Casey.

 

[Illinest]

Ive gotten so tired of dejan. He used to seem like a cool guy.
Well i did read it. The bit about cole is what matters most. When a reporter mentions excitement i weight that observation much more heavily than i would a prepared statement. Everybody wants cole on the roster. Thats enough.

Likewise the comment about melancon was good to hear. On the other hand burnett talking about mcdonald seems too likely to be a vote of confidence.

Oh well - lets hope the team is competitive early. The schedule is tough but if we can get through to june in decent shape then we're in a good position to finish strong. Even taillon could make it late in the year if he has a great season.