Is Baker Mayfield a Bust?

[fastforward]

No, they'd never trade him there.

But if the Browns can't get a deal done and cut him... hahahahahahahaha.

That's why I don't think the Browns can cut him - too easy for it to bite them in the ass. And they have to pay the money anyway. They'll trade him or keep him.

If the Carolina offer is bad (Browns pay the whole salary and Carolina gives a 2024 6th, for example), I think the Browns would decide to just keep Mayfield. And if the Browns keep him, both sides will figure out that he should play.

So Carolina has to offer just above whatever that "bad" line is for the Browns.

Me, I'm rooting for cutting or keeping, because this trade looks boring as hell, except that the Browns face the Panthers Week 1.

Agree to disagree. Trades are normally about offering as little as possible over the 'bad line'. I don't see teams being scared to trade with a divisional rival as they were 15+ years ago. If the Browns price is $9M, an NFC team is prepared to pay $9M, but the Steelers are prepared to pay $12M then send him to the Steelers. The Browns are $3M better off and a divisional rival is $3M worse off than if they'd spent their money elsewhere. Business is business.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Agree to disagree. Trades are normally about offering as little as possible over the 'bad line'. I don't see teams being scared to trade with a divisional rival as they were 15+ years ago. If the Browns price is $9M, an NFC team is prepared to pay $9M, but the Steelers are prepared to pay $12M then send him to the Steelers. The Browns are $3M better off and a divisional rival is $3M worse off than if they'd spent their money elsewhere. Business is business.

I sort of agree. I do think there is a built in bias not to trade within the division and maybe even the conference but the over riding concern is to get the best return possible.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

No, they'd never trade him there.

But if the Browns can't get a deal done and cut him... hahahahahahahaha.

That's why I don't think the Browns can cut him - too easy for it to bite them in the ass. And they have to pay the money anyway. They'll trade him or keep him.

If the Carolina offer is bad (Browns pay the whole salary and Carolina gives a 2024 6th, for example), I think the Browns would decide to just keep Mayfield. And if the Browns keep him, both sides will figure out that he should play.

So Carolina has to offer just above whatever that "bad" line is for the Browns.

Me, I'm rooting for cutting or keeping, because this trade looks boring as hell, except that the Browns face the Panthers Week 1.

I'm convinced that a trade will happen and it will be a Bridgewater type deal where the Browns end up accepting peanuts for Mayfield. They'll continue to bargain and try to drum up a market for Mayfield but at the end of the day they move him for what ever they can get, which isn't going to be much.

 

[Manster7588]

I'm convinced that a trade will happen and it will be a Bridgewater type deal where the Browns end up accepting peanuts for Mayfield. They'll continue to bargain and try to drum up a market for Mayfield but at the end of the day they move him for what ever they can get, which isn't going to be much.

Yep, problem for Cleveland is only the Panthers are showing any interest, making the drumming basically impossible.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Yep, problem for Cleveland is only the Panthers are showing any interest, making the drumming basically impossible.

And the fact that every team in the NFL knows Baker can't remain on the team - Cleveland is offering half now, and may have to eat 3/4 - otherwise, they eat the entire thing by releasing him. They vastly overplayed their hand with this direct scenario.

 

[wilwhite]

I'm convinced that a trade will happen and it will be a Bridgewater type deal where the Browns end up accepting peanuts for Mayfield. They'll continue to bargain and try to drum up a market for Mayfield but at the end of the day they move him for what ever they can get, which isn't going to be much.

Is half the salary and a fourth peanuts? (Bridgewater was like a third of the salary snd a sixth; Ryan was all the salary and a third.)

 

[jarntt]

Is half the salary and a fourth peanuts? (Bridgewater was like a third of the salary snd a sixth; Ryan was all the salary and a third.)

My guess (stressing guess) is half the salary would fetch them a 6th or 7th
If they eat 3/4's of it maybe a 4th?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Is half the salary and a fourth peanuts? (Bridgewater was like a third of the salary snd a sixth; Ryan was all the salary and a third.)

Panthers end up paying 17 out of 20 million and got a 6th round pick for Teddy.

 

[dtgold88]

In an ideal world, where would Mayfield go?

Most fun would be the Steelers. Probably best for Mayfield in the long run would be the Buccaneers. Sit your ass down and learn something; you’ll be the starter next year.

Not sure what their current HC thinks of him. Arians loved the guy so would have thought better chance had he stayed.

 

[wilwhite]

Panthers end up paying 17 out of 20 million and got a 6th round pick for Teddy.

I think it was $7M out of $10M and the 2022 contract year was removed.

 

[dtgold88]

Yep, problem for Cleveland is only the Panthers are showing any interest, making the drumming basically impossible.

are the Panthers even showing interest? Could be the norm and reporters are just making it up based on what they think makes the most sense.

Like many deals in all sports if something happens it may just be something no one expected.

 

[wilwhite]

My guess (stressing guess) is half the salary would fetch them a 6th or 7th
If they eat 3/4's of it maybe a 4th?

Not sure you can really pay your way to a higher pick in this league. I think the pick has more to do with the value and remaining longevity of the player and the money more to do with other concerns.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think it was $7M out of $10M and the 2022 contract year was removed.

plus the portion of signing bonus for that season, so a 17 million cap hit for the Panthers

 

[wilwhite]

plus the portion of signing bonus for that season, so a 17 million cap hit for the Panthers

I think that's money the Panthers owed Bridgewater regardless, even if they cut him.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think that's money the Panthers owed Bridgewater regardless, even if they cut him.

Yes it was, so they could have cut him and eat 10 million, but instead traded him for a 6th round pick and took a 17 million dollar cap hit. Kind of a spendy 6th round pick for the Panthers.

 

[wilwhite]

Yes it was, so they could have cut him and eat 10 million, but instead traded him for a 6th round pick and took a 17 million dollar cap hit. Kind of a spendy 6th round pick for the Panthers.

Hm... so they could have saved $7 million by cutting him, but instead opted to spend it to get a sixth-round pick. (I don't think there were any concerns about how Bridgewater might haunt them with a particular team.)

That's kind of a useful benchmark. A sixth-round pick was worth $7 million last year to the Panthers.

 

[fastforward]

I think that's money the Panthers owed Bridgewater regardless, even if they cut him.

They would have had to account for the dead money anyway. It wasn't money owed to Bridgewater, it was money already paid to him that they had cap-accounted for. I seem to remember the real cash/cap figure being up to $7M for dumping Bridgewater but I don't have access to the old contract details. Trading for Darnold was a ridiculous and desperate move for the Panthers.

 

[wilwhite]

are the Panthers even showing interest? Could be the norm and reporters are just making it up based on what they think makes the most sense.

Like many deals in all sports if something happens it may just be something no one expected.

Looks like the teams are in fact negotiating, if you can trust "sources" in the sports industry.

 

[fastforward]

Hm... so they could have saved $7 million by cutting him, but instead opted to spend it to get a sixth-round pick. (I don't think there were any concerns about how Bridgewater might haunt them with a particular team.)

That's kind of a useful benchmark. A sixth-round pick was worth $7 million last year to the Panthers.

This is not correct. From memory the Panthers paid $7M of Bridgewater's $13M guaranteed salary. The Broncos giving up a 6th for Bridgewater with a $6M contract was an 'at-that-moment' market value. It does NOT imply that a 6th is worth $7M. If Bridgewater had been on a $25M salary with the Panthers the Panthers would have had to eat $19M to move Bridgewater on that deal.

The clearest valuation for a pick is the Rams-Dolphins trade of Aqib Talib. Talib was on IR and was going to retire at the end of the season. The Rams gave up a 5th round pick to the Dolphins who would pay Talib the remaining $4M of his salary before he retired.

 

[wilwhite]

Agree to disagree. Trades are normally about offering as little as possible over the 'bad line'. I don't see teams being scared to trade with a divisional rival as they were 15+ years ago. If the Browns price is $9M, an NFC team is prepared to pay $9M, but the Steelers are prepared to pay $12M then send him to the Steelers. The Browns are $3M better off and a divisional rival is $3M worse off than if they'd spent their money elsewhere. Business is business.

If we're putting a price on things, what's the monetary value to the club of a win over the Steelers versus a loss? That, times the likelihood that Mayfield on the Steelers would cost them a win, times the number of times they'd likely face him over his Steelers career, is the number you're comparing the $3 million to. For fun say you can identify the win value at $10 million, and an estimated 10% chance Mayfield being on the Steelers means you lose, and figuring you face him eight times, that would be $8 million. Same math on the Panthers and you only face him twice, that would be $2 million.

Made-up numbers, but you get the idea. They have to do some version of that calculation, even if it's just by their gut.