Kawhi wants out of San Antonio

[DJ]

an over simplification huh?

Horford: 29M in '18-'19, 30M in '19-'20

Hayward: 31M in '18-'19, 33M in '19-'20, 34M in '20-'21

Kyrie: 20M next year. After that he will go up to numbers just slightly larger than Hayward.

Tatum- will be eligible for 25% of the cap. Kyrie and Hayward were eligible for 30% of the cap (unless Kyrie makes an All NBA team or starts the All Star game and then he will be eligible for 35%). Brown will be eligible for 25% of the cap as well.

Do you really think that is THAT big a difference?

So like i said- its practically impossible to carry 4 max players. Some guys will have to go - if Kawhi comes in.

its math. its what the CBA was designed to do. If you are going to have 4 max players- regardless if they are 25%, or 30%, (or even 35%) "maxes"- the rest of your roster will have little more than min. level guys and you will be paying boatloads of tax.

Its what the NBA designed the CBA to do.

Golden State.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yes. Actually.

Ball has a lot of value. But I think a top 7 or 8 protected first would be a fair price while taking Ball and Deng. That pick would go to the Spurs, not the Lakers.

I generally agree with you, Lance, but I think you are way off on this one.

What team is going to be willing to take on Deng's contract and Lonzo Ball and give back a late lottery pick?

I could probably come up with a few teams that would give up a protected 1st for Lonzo Ball, even with the family circus in tow. But throwing in the Deng contract completely poisons that. How many teams are even capable of taking on $25 million in new salary? You think the Bulls would do that trade? The Hawks? The Kings? Certainly not the Sixers.

Any team that is taking on Deng's contract is looking to take on assets, not give out assets. And similar to Fultz, if the Lakers are willing to deal Ball after one season as part of a salary dump they clearly don't value him all that much either.

 

[WiggyRuss]

One reason why I would not be surprised if Boston goes for Kawhi is that reason precisely. They cant pay all the talent they have. At some point they will have to let Horford go, and or trade quite a bit of pieces. It is simply not even CLOSE to feasible to keep the team together that Boston currently has for more than the next 2- if that in some ways.

Horford, Kyrie and Hayward are your max players that will be making over a combined 90 million after next year assuming Kyrie resigns.

Smart, Rozier, Tatum, Brown all have to get paid at some point. Smart now, Rozier after next year, Brown the following year and Tatum the following year.

THIS year very well might be Boston's BEST roster. Rozier or Irving will not be on the team at the start of the season after this season. Its highly doubtful that if Hayward is on the team that Brown AND Tatum will be on the team for the long long term.

If you are Boston, while Kyrie is only getting 20M instead of 32M, why not trade for Kawhi-- use Brown, its not like you can sign everyone anyway. Before Kyrie gets a new market level max make the deal- if you have to give up Brown and Rozier fine- you probably cant keep both, or maybe either one anyway.

 

[tlance]

@WiggyRuss

You keep BSing me, but answer these questions:

1) If the Celtics dealt Horford and Brown, their top 6 players would be: Kawhi, Hayward, Kyrie, Tatum, Rozier and Smart. Can 5 of those 6 ever play on the court together? Certainly not for extended stretches.

2) financially, Kyrie and Kawh are both FAs next summer. Both could leave. If they stay, they will be making 35 million plus with Hayward already at 30. Is that sustainable long term?

3) who has more trade value? Kyrie, or Horford?

4) which player has missed key playoff games in 2 of the last 4 seasons and has pretty significant injury risk moving forward?

If you answer those questions objectively, you will arrive at the same conclusions I have. The Spurs would rather have Kyrie than Horford, and the Celtics need Horford more than they need Kyrie. It makes sense from a fit standpoint, a financial standpoint and it mitigates their future injury risk too.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Golden State.

thats becuase Draymond and Klay are on contracts that pay each of them less than 20M a year.

When that figure goes up to the 30's is when its no longer tenable. Klay after this year, Draymond after the following year. Klay makes 19 this year and Draymond makes 17. Also, we have to assume Durants contract of only 25M last year goes up to AT LEAST 30-32, if not like 36M this offseason.

Just keeping those 4 guys together from this year to the new year will probably cost Golden State an additional 15M, and thats with Klay and Draymond on their still fairly small deals (minimal increases from Klay, Draymon and Curry, and then a fairly substantial but still undermarket deal for Durant is where the 15M comes from).

15M and that level of tax and repeater equals more like 50M.

After that when Klay jumps to say, even conservatively, 28M and Draymond jumps, again CONSERVATIVELY, to 28M, that then becomes 35M more to keep the 4 together than what they paid this last year. In tax that can equal as much as 140M all else being equal.

 

[flyerhawk]

One reason why I would not be surprised if Boston goes for Kawhi is that reason precisely. They cant pay all the talent they have. At some point they will have to let Horford go, and or trade quite a bit of pieces. It is simply not even CLOSE to feasible to keep the team together that Boston currently has for more than the next 2- if that in some ways.

Horford, Kyrie and Hayward are your max players that will be making over a combined 90 million after next year assuming Kyrie resigns.

Smart, Rozier, Tatum, Brown all have to get paid at some point. Smart now, Rozier after next year, Brown the following year and Tatum the following year.

THIS year very well might be Boston's BEST roster. Rozier or Irving will not be on the team at the start of the season after this season. Its highly doubtful that if Hayward is on the team that Brown AND Tatum will be on the team for the long long term.

If you are Boston, while Kyrie is only getting 20M instead of 32M, why not trade for Kawhi-- use Brown, its not like you can sign everyone anyway. Before Kyrie gets a new market level max make the deal- if you have to give up Brown and Rozier fine- you probably cant keep both, or maybe either one anyway.

If the Celtics can get Kawhi without blowing up their roster, they are going to do it. Tatum and Kawhi could be a championship winning combo. The team, as constructed, is not a championship team.

 

[DJ]

thats becuase Draymond and Klay are on contracts that pay each of them less than 20M a year.

When that figure goes up to the 30's is when its no longer tenable. Klay after this year, Draymond after the following year. Klay makes 19 this year and Draymond makes 17. Also, we have to assume Durants contract of only 25M last year goes up to AT LEAST 30-32, if not like 36M this offseason.

Just keeping those 4 guys together from this year to the new year will probably cost Golden State an additional 15M, and thats with Klay and Draymond on their still fairly small deals (minimal increases from Klay, Draymon and Curry, and then a fairly substantial but still undermarket deal for Durant is where the 15M comes from).

15M and that level of tax and repeater equals more like 50M.

After that when Klay jumps to say, even conservatively, 28M and Draymond jumps, again CONSERVATIVELY, to 28M, that then becomes 35M more to keep the 4 together than what they paid this last year. In tax that can equal as much as 140M all else being equal.

If it were the Cavs.....you'd say deep pockets Gilbert.

 

[WiggyRuss]

@WiggyRuss

You keep BSing me, but answer these questions:

1) If the Celtics dealt Horford and Brown, their top 6 players would be: Kawhi, Hayward, Kyrie, Tatum, Rozier and Smart. Can 5 of those 6 ever play on the court together? Certainly not for extended stretches.

2) financially, Kyrie and Kawh are both FAs next summer. Both could leave. If they stay, they will be making 35 million plus with Hayward already at 30. Is that sustainable long term?

3) who has more trade value? Kyrie, or Horford?

4) which player has missed key playoff games in 2 of the last 4 seasons and has pretty significant injury risk moving forward?

If you answer those questions objectively, you will arrive at the same conclusions I have. The Spurs would rather have Kyrie than Horford, and the Celtics need Horford more than they need Kyrie. It makes sense from a fit standpoint, a financial standpoint and it mitigates their future injury risk too.

1. you think Smart is coming back? not likely

2. It depends on both- i am not sure if either is eligible for the 35% level. Both missing substantial time with injuries last year. I think both would have to either start the all star game, or make an All NBA team to qualify- which is certainly possible- but it goes back to what i was saying- yah- you cant carry 4 max guys.

3. Kyrie EASILY has more trade value than Horford. Not even close

4. Kyrie without a doubt.

I totally 1,000% disagree that the Celtics in any situation would prefer Horford over Kyrie. If Danny Ainge is forced to get a big man he has plenty of assets at his disposable to do so- and big men have never meant less than they do in todays game.

 

[tlance]

an over simplification huh?

Horford: 29M in '18-'19, 30M in '19-'20

Hayward: 31M in '18-'19, 33M in '19-'20, 34M in '20-'21

Kyrie: 20M next year. After that he will go up to numbers just slightly larger than Hayward.

Tatum- will be eligible for 25% of the cap. Kyrie and Hayward were eligible for 30% of the cap (unless Kyrie makes an All NBA team or starts the All Star game and then he will be eligible for 35%). Brown will be eligible for 25% of the cap as well.

Do you really think that is THAT big a difference?

So like i said- its practically impossible to carry 4 max players. Some guys will have to go - if Kawhi comes in.

its math. its what the CBA was designed to do. If you are going to have 4 max players- regardless if they are 25%, or 30%, (or even 35%) "maxes"- the rest of your roster will have little more than min. level guys and you will be paying boatloads of tax.

Its what the NBA designed the CBA to do.

Yes. It is a huge difference actually.

Tatum will be eligible for 25% 3 years from now. By then, Horford's contract will be up and I bet Boston can get him back on a discount if he is still producing and the Celtics are winning.

Kyrie, on the other hand is going to be making 30-35% starting in 2019 and he is a large injury risk.

 

[flyerhawk]

If you answer those questions objectively, you will arrive at the same conclusions I have. The Spurs would rather have Kyrie than Horford, and the Celtics need Horford more than they need Kyrie. It makes sense from a fit standpoint, a financial standpoint and it mitigates their future injury risk too.

I would be surprised if the Spurs want Kyrie. He's a great player but he only has one year left on his contract. Why would the Spurs trade an expiring asset for another expiring asset?

 

[WiggyRuss]

If it were the Cavs.....you'd say deep pockets Gilbert.

i said the Cavs would not even consider trading for DeAndre Jordan considering he was another max guy and you cant carry 4 max guys- and this was before it was evident IT would be gone and was assuming, which was what most were at the time, that IT might be with the Cavs long term.

You cant have LEBron, IT, Love and Jordan---- you cant pay 4 max guys. No one can. Not at what the cap is currently set at what the repeater taxes are set at.

 

[DJ]

Yes. It is a huge difference actually.

Tatum will be eligible for 25% 3 years from now. By then, Horford's contract will be up and I bet Boston can get him back on a discount if he is still producing and the Celtics are winning.

Kyrie, on the other hand is going to be making 30-35% starting in 2019 and he is a large injury risk.

It's why they should trade Irving if they can. While Horford isn't the same level player Irving is......they can count on him to play in the postseason and he is their only big man. Plus, with the wings they have.....Irving is expendable.

They don't have just 1. They have Brown AND Tatum.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I would be surprised if the Spurs want Kyrie. He's a great player but he only has one year left on his contract. Why would the Spurs trade an expiring asset for another expiring asset?

because itsthe best they can do?

woudlnt yo utake your chances with a supreme talent like that and hope that he would love playing for Pop and being the man in San Antonio, - then rolling the dice on a couple young guys that have under performed their draft slots? Plus- i am sure you would get another fairly significant asset out of the deal- whether it would be a draft pick or a player or two.

 

[BigKen]

According to Boston Sports Tonight, four teams are actively after Leonard. Add that to the fact that LeBron stated yesteday that he will NOT be the first free agent to sign anywhere, that puts the competition in hyper speed.

The four teams are the Lakers, Clippers, Sixers and Celtics. Ainge stated yesterday that he will not make a final offer unless he can sit down alone with Leonard and discuss what HE wants to do with his career.

Basically, Ainge is out if Leonard is only interested in playing for the Lakers and will not consider an extension or new long term contract.

The talking heads in Boston think that if Leonard will sign with the Celtics that Horford and Rozier will be the offer and possibly the Sacramento first round pick or the Memphis first round pick.

Can the Lakers or Clippers match that??

 

[WiggyRuss]

It's why they should trade Irving if they can. While Horford isn't the same level player Irving is......they can count on him to play in the postseason and he is their only big man. Plus, with the wings they have.....Irving is expendable.

They don't have just 1. They have Brown AND Tatum.

Hey. I just watched my Cavs play Horford in 7 games. Tristan Thompson effectively negated him once Lue used his brain.

I know Tristan Thompson or some other bit role player cant negate Kyrie Irving.

Horford is a marginal all star talent. Kyrie has top 10 ability. Again- I take the high end talent every single time and dont think twice about it.

 

[tlance]

I generally agree with you, Lance, but I think you are way off on this one.

What team is going to be willing to take on Deng's contract and Lonzo Ball and give back a late lottery pick?

I could probably come up with a few teams that would give up a protected 1st for Lonzo Ball, even with the family circus in tow. But throwing in the Deng contract completely poisons that. How many teams are even capable of taking on $25 million in new salary? You think the Bulls would do that trade? The Hawks? The Kings? Certainly not the Sixers.

Any team that is taking on Deng's contract is looking to take on assets, not give out assets. And similar to Fultz, if the Lakers are willing to deal Ball after one season as part of a salary dump they clearly don't value him all that much either.

I think the Suns could and should do that deal.

Because, if they are being smart, they will see that they won't really be a major player for a max FA until 2020. And Deng's contract is up by then. Also, adding Ball, Ayton and Bridges should give them a chance to win 35 plus and start their ascent to the playoffs.

I also think you are significantly undervaluing Ball. I don't think he is great, but he is well worth giving a protected pick and taking salary when your team isn't signing anybody of note anyway. The Suns will only get themselves in trouble with that cap space, IMO.

 

[WiggyRuss]

According to Boston Sports Tonight, four teams are actively after Leonard. Add that to the fact that LeBron stated yesteday that he will NOT be the first free agent to sign anywhere, that puts the competition in hyper speed.

The four teams are the Lakers, Clippers, Sixers and Celtics. Ainge stated yesterday that he will not make a final offer unless he can sit down alone with Leonard and discuss what HE wants to do with his career.

Basically, Ainge is out if Leonard is only interested in playing for the Lakers and will not consider an extension or new long term contract.

The talking heads in Boston think that if Leonard will sign with the Celtics that Horford and Rozier will be the offer and possibly the Sacramento first round pick or the Memphis first round pick.

Can the Lakers or Clippers match that??

not even close.

If you had the choice between Terry Rozier and Lonzo Ball to be your point guard i take Rozier in a second. Guy kicked ass in the playoffs.

While Horford is not an elite talent, he is a very good player that is under contract. And the Sacramento and Memphis picks are much better picks than anything the Lakers can offer pick wise, and better pick wise than anything the Sixers can offer besides maybe that TOTALLY unprotected Miami pick.

I bet that type of offer- Rozier, Horford, and a solid first or two is EXACTLY the type of offer the Spurs are looking for rather than a marginal first rounder or two, and a couple high draft picks that have underperformed their draft slots.

 

[flyerhawk]

Hey. I just watched my Cavs play Horford in 7 games. Tristan Thompson effectively negated him once Lue used his brain.

I know Tristan Thompson or some other bit role player cant negate Kyrie Irving.

Horford is a marginal all star talent. Kyrie has top 10 ability. Again- I take the high end talent every single time and dont think twice about it.

How did Kyrie do in that series?

 

[DJ]

According to Boston Sports Tonight, four teams are actively after Leonard. Add that to the fact that LeBron stated yesteday that he will NOT be the first free agent to sign anywhere, that puts the competition in hyper speed.

The four teams are the Lakers, Clippers, Sixers and Celtics. Ainge stated yesterday that he will not make a final offer unless he can sit down alone with Leonard and discuss what HE wants to do with his career.

Basically, Ainge is out if Leonard is only interested in playing for the Lakers and will not consider an extension or new long term contract.

The talking heads in Boston think that if Leonard will sign with the Celtics that Horford and Rozier will be the offer and possibly the Sacramento first round pick or the Memphis first round pick.

Can the Lakers or Clippers match that??

Boston won't trade Horford. He's their only big man basically with Baynes a FA.

 

[DJ]

Hey. I just watched my Cavs play Horford in 7 games. Tristan Thompson effectively negated him once Lue used his brain.

I know Tristan Thompson or some other bit role player cant negate Kyrie Irving.

Horford is a marginal all star talent. Kyrie has top 10 ability. Again- I take the high end talent every single time and dont think twice about it.

IRving.

Try and refute it all you want......it's true.