Winning Season?

[magnumo]

When can Pirate fans expect one?

A number of thoughts and observations:

- Since their high point on July 19 (51-44, .537), the Pirates have been downright awful (11-29, .275).

- Not only have their results been awful, but they have looked awful while producing those results.

- It appears that the performance of the rotation during the first half was mostly mirage. I don't see compelling evidence that we can expect improvement (or a repeat of the first half) next season.

- The so-called "Altoona Four" have been disappointing, with Owens on the DL after a mediocre season, and Morris and Wilson demoted to the bullpen. Only Locke has continued to show promise as a starter.

- Alvarez is showing no signs of finding himself at Indy. The only other position player in the high minors who has looked good is Marte. But since he's an outfielder, it appears that the best hope we have is trading an outfielder for someone to fill another hole.

- Many of our other prospects have been disappointing (e.g. Sanchez).

- All those pitching phenoms drafted by Huntington are in the low minors.

- In terms of players acquired through trades and acquisitions, it appears that Huntington's primary process has been to throw a whole bunch of players against the wall and hope that a few stick. Unfortunately, the vast majority slid down off the wall. (To list them here would consume too many keystrokes.) We need better (from both the GM and the players he acquires).

- The last 40 games have demonstrated that Hurdle and Searage are not the saviors many of us had hoped they would be.

Bottom line: Seems to me that we should expect a regression in team performance next season. Since our 19th consecutive losing season is all but guaranteed this year, 2012 seems likely to be #20.

I could use a dose of optimism. When do you expect the Pirates to have a winning season and why??

 

[thecrow124]

Wow, really hard question. I was hoping beyond hope that this would be the miracle season to break the streak, but alas, it is not. I now believe that it will be at least 4 more years of losing simply because we have no hope of building an offense with our minor league system.
Oddly there is a solution to the situation that could conceivably cut that wait in half, but no one here wants to hear it. It involves the trade of Andrew McCutchen for a pile of top prospects. However trading Cutch would probably cause a rebellion of epic proportions from Pirate Nation.
The second phase of the plan in my head would be trading Pedro for somewhat less of a return but not much. By trading those 2 we could realistically build something that resembles an offense by 2013 and have those players around in 2014 when we could see some actual pitching at the major league level as well.
This is just my theory and I am sure it will draw mix criticism but IMO it is the fastest way to turn this crapfest around and start to produce winning baseball at all levels.

 

[element1286]

No idea, it could be next year, it could be 5 years away. There are too many unknowns, and things change too fast, cliche I know but it is true. Look at the turnaround of Morton, and then failure of Pedro. Why always focusing on the negative, Mags? That seems taxing on the psyche.

Crow, if they traded Cutch for prospects the rebellion would be justified. There is a reason you never see pre-arb stars traded for prospects.

 

[thedddd]

Tough question on when they will have a winning season.

Yeah it is easy to dwell on the negative stuff since we are used to it and it is easy to do. But looking at a few items I think are positive for next year outside of McCutchen:
1. Neil Walker at 2B
2. Some bullpen pieces - Backend - Hanrahan, Meek when healthy, now Leroux. Long relief McCutchen (Karstens or Correia next year)
3. James McDonald - granted he needs to pitch deeper into games but most of his starts he has kept the team in it to win.

Also if Tabata can get healthy there is another positive for a top of the order hitting who should get on base.

 

[Darkstone42]

They're a young team and they look gassed, especially the pitchers. Hopefully this season stretched them out for next season, and they can put together a full season.

I would like to see the Pirates target one bat and one starter this offseason. They don't need to break the bank or anything, just give the young guys some support and a chance to build on what they did through the first 90 or so games of this season. I think the winning season could be as close as 2 years away if a couple solid pickups are made this year.

 

[element1286]

Tough question on when they will have a winning season.

Yeah it is easy to dwell on the negative stuff since we are used to it and it is easy to do. But looking at a few items I think are positive for next year outside of McCutchen:
1. Neil Walker at 2B
2. Some bullpen pieces - Backend - Hanrahan, Meek when healthy, now Leroux. Long relief McCutchen (Karstens or Correia next year)
3. James McDonald - granted he needs to pitch deeper into games but most of his starts he has kept the team in it to win.

Also if Tabata can get healthy there is another positive for a top of the order hitting who should get on base.

Presley and Harrison look like legit players, probably not stars, but I don't see why they can't be regular starters, or good bench players, at the very least.

We'll get a look at Lincoln down the stretch; he should have a rotation spot next year.

Plus, the young guys who they are relying on; McCutchen, Tabata, Walker, and Morton can all get better. Especially Tabata and Walker who have had down seasons with the bat. If Morton can bounce back so can Pedro, so can Tony Sanchez, and the Altoona four.

 

[thecrow124]

Presley and Harrison look like legit players, probably not stars, but I don't see why they can't be regular starters, or good bench players, at the very least.

We'll get a look at Lincoln down the stretch; he should have a rotation spot next year.

Plus, the young guys who they are relying on; McCutchen, Tabata, Walker, and Morton can all get better. Especially Tabata and Walker who have had down seasons with the bat. If Morton can bounce back so can Pedro, so can Tony Sanchez, and the Altoona four.

Not sure what exactly you wanted from Walker, but this is probably the low point and he is likely going to end up with numbers between last year and this year for his average season. So calling this a down year may be a stretch at this point.

 

[element1286]

Not sure what exactly you wanted from Walker, but this is probably the low point and he is likely going to end up with numbers between last year and this year for his average season. So calling this a down year may be a stretch at this point.

Last year .296/.349/.462

This year .275/.340/.403

I don't know, I'd consider that a down year. He's still been a good player, but he can be better with the bat, we've already seen him do it.

 

[magnumo]

That notion hit me hard, element.....

No idea, it could be next year, it could be 5 years away. There are too many unknowns, and things change too fast, cliche I know but it is true. Look at the turnaround of Morton, and then failure of Pedro. Why always focusing on the negative, Mags? That seems taxing on the psyche.

.....and as I think about it, it's a fair question. Let me start to answer it this way:

I have never perceived myself as "always focusing on the negative." In real life, I've never been known as a pessimist. In fact, I've always worked hard to see the big picture, to look at both sides of any issue. Many others (including those who evaluated my performance) described that characteristic, along with a consistent dedication to "telling it like it is" (whether to bosses, peers, or subordinates), as the primary reasons for the modest success I had during my working career.

And I've seen a LOT of teams rebuild successfully over the years, including the Pirates. For purposes of brevity, I will list a couple of obvious Pirate examples.

1. The teams from 1950 to 1957 were awful..... but as that decade moved toward the next, one could see clear signs of the light at the end of the tunnel..... which culminated in the 1960 World Series victory.

2. I'm also reminded of the bad teams in the mid 80's, but in looking at the big picture at that time, one could see clearly that the Pirates were building toward Leyland's good teams.

The same kind of situation prevailed with those two rebuilds, and with numerous successful rebuilding processes of other teams. There were common positive elements. There were clear signs. One could never be sure, but one could see the team's potential building..... and see the likelihood that a competitive team was just around the corner.

Perhaps I've allowed myself to be poisoned by so many years of losing..... but when I look at the Pirates today (the big picture, the whole picture), I just don't see the signs. I don't see enough positives to feel good about the future of the franchise. Sure, Morton has pitched much better than last year, and McCutchen is a very good young player who may get better. But even bad teams typically have a few good players. Today, when I look at the big picture..... when I look at all the signs in Pirate-land..... it just doesn't look very encouraging to me. Quite the contrary.

But maybe you're right. Perhaps I'm dwelling too much on the negative. I will take that thought under advisement and endeavor to re-assess my perceptions.

 

[element1286]

.....and as I think about it, it's a fair question. Let me start to answer it this way:

I have never perceived myself as "always focusing on the negative." In real life, I've never been known as a pessimist. In fact, I've always worked hard to see the big picture, to look at both sides of any issue. Many others (including those who evaluated my performance) described that characteristic, along with a consistent dedication to "telling it like it is" (whether to bosses, peers, or subordinates), as the primary reasons for the modest success I had during my working career.

And I've seen a LOT of teams rebuild successfully over the years, including the Pirates. For purposes of brevity, I will list a couple of obvious Pirate examples.

1. The teams from 1950 to 1957 were awful..... but as that decade moved toward the next, one could see clear signs of the light at the end of the tunnel..... which culminated in the 1960 World Series victory.

2. I'm also reminded of the bad teams in the mid 80's, but in looking at the big picture at that time, one could see clearly that the Pirates were building toward Leyland's good teams.

The same kind of situation prevailed with those two rebuilds, and with numerous successful rebuilding processes of other teams. There were common positive elements. There were clear signs. One could never be sure, but one could see the team's potential building..... and see the likelihood that a competitive team was just around the corner.

Perhaps I've allowed myself to be poisoned by so many years of losing..... but when I look at the Pirates today (the big picture, the whole picture), I just don't see the signs. I don't see enough positives to feel good about the future of the franchise. Sure, Morton has pitched much better than last year, and McCutchen is a very good young player who may get better. But even bad teams typically have a few good players. Today, when I look at the big picture..... when I look at all the signs in Pirate-land..... it just doesn't look very encouraging to me. Quite the contrary.

But maybe you're right. Perhaps I'm dwelling too much on the negative. I will take that thought under advisement and endeavor to re-assess my perceptions.

Fair response, thanks for taking it into consideration, Mags.

I can't speak for the past, because I wasn't around then, but I think things are a little bit different because of the amount of information we have available now. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think information about up and coming prospects was few and far between, and probably only heard about guys when they reached AA or above. My thoughts, I could be totally off on that, I have no idea.

Anyway, they have the star position player, build around him.

 

[magnumo]

Definitely accurate

I can't speak for the past, because I wasn't around then, but I think things are a little bit different because of the amount of information we have available now. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think information about up and coming prospects was few and far between, and probably only heard about guys when they reached AA or above. My thoughts, I could be totally off on that, I have no idea.

Your thoughts are on target. Information on minor leaguers was spotty..... limited mostly to the back pages of The Sporting News, a few notes in the print media during Spring Training, and an occasional mention when someone did something spectacular in the minors. Mostly, we heard about prospects when they first showed up in the major leagues. A few examples from deep, dark memory:

- There was a splash in the local media (by today's standards, more of a footnote) when the Pirates "stole" Roberto Clemente from the Dodgers' minor league system. I don't remember clearly the reports on how that was done..... and it wasn't until many years later that I became aware that it was the Rule 5 draft. I'm guessing that the applicable rules were probably different in 1954. At any rate, he showed up immediately on the major league team in 1955 at age 20. And even though his first few years were far from spectacular, it was easy to see that he was a jewel in the making on those awful mid-50's teams.

- I also remember a particular report from Willie Stargell's first Spring Training with the Pirates. I don't remember what year it was, probably 1961 or 1962..... but Willie hit some monster shots during Spring Training, and there were some media reports about his developing power in the minors. But the thing I remember most was a glowing quote from Bill Virdon, who was the Pirates' CF for many years, later manager and coach. Virdon said something like, "This guy has special power, the best prospect I've seen. He will be as good as he wants to be."

- Then there was Dick Stuart, the memorable "Dr. Strangeglove." He got some mention in the press when he hit 66 home runs during one minor league season. Don't remember the year or the level (there was a different labeling system for minor league levels back in those days, specifically AAA, AA, A, B, C, D), but it sticks in my mind that the team was located in Lincoln, Nebraska.

- In 1958, the Pirates had two rookie starters (George Witt and Curt Raydon) who burst into prominence after a mid-season call-up and contributed a lot to the Pirates' surge from 7th place in 1957 to 2nd place in 1958 (in the 8-team NL). Witt went 9-2 with a 1.61 ERA, and Raydon was 8-4 with a 3.62 ERA. (I remembered the W-L records but had to look up the ERA's.) I heard little about these two guys until they showed up in the majors. Unfortunately, both suffered "sore arms" and neither had success after 1958.

 

[stillmatic32]

At this point, it would take some luck to hit .500 in the next season or two. What needs to happen is they need to sign Cutch for 4 years, minimum (1 year past arbitration). If they cannot do that, they may as well cut their losses now. I look at the target for .500 being the 2013 season. Need to also finalize the Walker extension. Outside of that, we need most of these things to happen.

1) Presley to OPS over .800
2) Tabata to OPS over .800
3) Pedro to hit 30 bombs
4) Decent upgrade at either shortstop or catcher
5) Get a 1B that hits like a 1B should
6) We need 2 starters to get to the majors that are legit front line starters. I realize this one is pretty unlikely by 2013, but it is possible Cole and Taillon could be up by June 2013. I think J-Mac has the potential to be a solid 3. Morton and Lincoln can be the 4 and 5. A first half Morton would obviously be a great 3, also.

So yeah for the Pirates to turn the corner soon, it would take a lot of luck, but it could happen. Not likely, but it could.

I didn't mention this on the list, but what the Pirates really need to happen is to have a stud emerge out of nowhere in the system. Any position, really, a game changer.

Alright, I'm done for now. I've listed way too many things needed to contend.

 

[26 elroy face]

Your thoughts are on target. Information on minor leaguers was spotty..... limited mostly to the back pages of The Sporting News, a few notes in the print media during Spring Training, and an occasional mention when someone did something spectacular in the minors. Mostly, we heard about prospects when they first showed up in the major leagues. A few examples from deep, dark memory:

- There was a splash in the local media (by today's standards, more of a footnote) when the Pirates "stole" Roberto Clemente from the Dodgers' minor league system. I don't remember clearly the reports on how that was done..... and it wasn't until many years later that I became aware that it was the Rule 5 draft. I'm guessing that the applicable rules were probably different in 1954. At any rate, he showed up immediately on the major league team in 1955 at age 20. And even though his first few years were far from spectacular, it was easy to see that he was a jewel in the making on those awful mid-50's teams.

- I also remember a particular report from Willie Stargell's first Spring Training with the Pirates. I don't remember what year it was, probably 1961 or 1962..... but Willie hit some monster shots during Spring Training, and there were some media reports about his developing power in the minors. But the thing I remember most was a glowing quote from Bill Virdon, who was the Pirates' CF for many years, later manager and coach. Virdon said something like, "This guy has special power, the best prospect I've seen. He will be as good as he wants to be."

- Then there was Dick Stuart, the memorable "Dr. Strangeglove." He got some mention in the press when he hit 66 home runs during one minor league season. Don't remember the year or the level (there was a different labeling system for minor league levels back in those days, specifically AAA, AA, A, B, C, D), but it sticks in my mind that the team was located in Lincoln, Nebraska.

- In 1958, the Pirates had two rookie starters (George Witt and Curt Raydon) who burst into prominence after a mid-season call-up and contributed a lot to the Pirates' surge from 7th place in 1957 to 2nd place in 1958 (in the 8-team NL). Witt went 9-2 with a 1.61 ERA, and Raydon was 8-4 with a 3.62 ERA. (I remembered the W-L records but had to look up the ERA's.) I heard little about these two guys until they showed up in the majors. Unfortunately, both suffered "sore arms" and neither had success after 1958.

I don't know if my memory is 100% correct on this, but the Dodgers were over the quota on black players. They couldn't protect Clemente so they were trying to hide him in Montreal when the Pirates claimed him.

As for Stuart I believe it was 1955 season at Lincoln. I remember reading an article in Life magazine " Pittsburgh Problem Baseball's Dilemma". I remember two of his home runs. The first one on the roof in left center at old Connie Mack Stadium in Philly, and the second one over the Drake Monument in Forbes Field.

Another note on Stuart. He was the undisputed arm (wrist) wresting champion of Major League baseball.