Who's left to sign ?

[Redsfan1507]

Frazier gets a 2 year deal- pushes him thru 2016 with 1 arbitration eligible year left- I think he'll be over 30 then. I know Cueto can be a FA at the end of this season- is Leake's FA year at the end of this year or NEXT year ? I can't remember...Chapman can leave after 2016 season if not extended before then.

Byrd has a 2016 option. Cozart and Hamilton aren't arbitration eligible for a couple years

Who's left, anyone ?

 

[JohnU]

I think Bruce is signed through 2017.
Aside from that, nobody who matters.
Not sure on Leake but I'd bet they sign him. He's not ace material.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Cozart, Meso, and Frazier were 1st year arbitration this winter. Bruce and Phillips are locked up through 2017. Votto is here until we're all retired or dead, Homer and Hamilton somewhere in between around 2020. Byrd has a vesting option in which I don't think he'll reach. The Phillies are paying half of the 2015 salary, the Reds would be on the hook for the full amount in 2016.

Cueto and Leake are in their last year at roughly $10M each. Cueto is only making $225k more than Leake. Chapman for two more years and as John said, "Nobody else matters".

This is a week 40 man roster, anyone expected to make a difference hasn't progressed that far yet.

 

[JohnU]

All in all, if these guys play anywhere near the back of their card, the Reds can contend.
I worry that Cozart will not hit, but the problem isn't Cozart; it's that the rest of the lineup tends to hit like Cozart part of the time.

These recent bullpen signings are mostly a smoke screen ... Badenhop is better than Ondrusek but is Gregg better than Broxton? Either way, if these guys don't score more than 3 runs a game, a staff of Koufaxes won't help.

I would hope that there is some semblance of balance in the contractual end of things. Cueto is apparently going to hold the Reds hostage. I'd say, "see ya."

 

[Redsfan1507]

For me, the Broxton deal is possibly the worst played, under the radar screw up, in a century of Reds baseball. It was sneakily incompetent at so many levels...Broxton was signed to close, so Aroldis Chapman could be the next Randy Johnson, only better....Dusty balked because that''s what he does, citing half a dozen reasons it wouldn't work- everything from culture shock to stamina to lack of control and lack of secondary pitches, all of which proved to be total bullshit... IMO, Dusty didn't want Tom Verducci blaming him again for blowing another young SP arm...then inexplicably, Price, one of Dusty's critics for not starting Chapman, takes over and AC still is in the closer's role...they send Simon to the rotation instead, and trade Broxton.

That's like finding Kate Upton naked in your bed, and deciding to screw the poodle instead.

Who in their right mind would do that ? It was a complete breakdown of the game plan from the time they signed Chapman.

Cueto isn't holding anyone hostage. In today's market he's a $25M/ yr. pitcher worthy of a contract north of $150M. What's he going to do, tell them he only wants $15M/yr for 3 years ? I haven't the Dustyest idea what the Reds are offering, but Cueto is both younger and more talented than Jon Lester, and could argue his career stats look as good as Max Scherzer's, both of which got very large deals.

Name another pitcher that won 18 or more games two out of the last 3 years. He's going to get a lot of money from someone, if he pitches anywhere close to that level this season.

I'm not a believer that mega buck, long term deals ever work in the best interest of teams, but I can't blame players for getting all they can, or fans paying $50 for a seat bitching because they let him walk.

It's easy for fans to say they should take a discount, but I'm sure Brandon Phillips was a very happy guy when he first signed his current contract, until Votto got 4 times the money BP signed for. Cueto already knows what Bailey got as a Red, and who could argue he's not worth twice that much ? Who ever he signs with won't have a problem with paying him that.

I also understand if the Reds don't believe they can afford him, but they have the responsibility to come up with a cheaper answer that doesn't impact the teams performance negatively, if they expect me to keep paying ticket increases.

It's different in GABP than Wrigley in that regard.... Reds fans object by not coming to the game. Cubs fans have historically gotten drunk at the game in protest. Both are motivations of a sort for owners, but they are polar opposites in methodology.

 

[JohnU]

Seeing as how it took Bailey 5 years to become a pitcher and Leake another 4 years to be dependable, I think the team would be well-served to get as many bats as they can. I mean, load up like the 1975 White Sox ... or the Blake Street bombers.

There are going to be lots of 8-5 games after this year is over, I think.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You think we can score 5 in that many games ?

I hope so.

We're on our 3rd 3B coach in 3 years, you know. Lol.

If everyone is healthy ( something I'm less confident in the last few years), weight score plenty and not give up too many when the top 3 SP are on the hill.

 

[JohnU]

The key word is "IF" ...

IF Votto can get 550 PA, we can score one more run a game IF Hamilton can reach 2nd base often enough.

IF Frazier and Mesoraco are as good as they seem to be in support roles, and IF Bruce really does have 40 HR ... and IF ... whew, I am tired already.

No, really ... 5 runs is a lot for any team these days but then again, so is 8.

Still, having 21 guys staked at the plate will do that.

The problem is, Byrd doesn't fix the problem in LF and I think the team believes otherwise.

I see that Chapman avoids arbitration. I gotta believe he's worth more in trade than in FA compensation. He's a short reliever, not an A-list player. I will forever wonder what we missed out on this guy.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see that the Reds and Chapman avoided arbitration hearing and agreed to a little over $8M.

I don't think most fans realize that after Chapman's third and final arbitration next year he'll be the highest paid Reds player in the history of the organization for their pre-arb and arbitration years. ($48M)

By comparison the Reds have paid nearly twice as much for Chapman as the Dodgers did for the 3 Cy Youngs and a MVP that Clayton Kershaw won during his first 6 years.

The biggest downside in signing top International talent is it's really expensive. Made worse by not maximizing the way you utilize the talent. The new international bonus pool rules have narrowed the gap between the younger international FA and rule 4 draftees. But the older Internationals and Asian players are still very expensive. A draft system may be in the offing to control future cost.

 

[JohnU]

I suppose the Reds have gotten their money's worth from Chapman. He does what he's supposed to do -- save games. If he was a shortstop, his fastball would be less important to me. I can't say for sure what a true dollar value is on a player, though WAR endeavors to do that for me. I can only say what I know, not what I believe, in the case of Chapman. I am just going to be forever disappointed to see if he was really a great starting pitcher. That is just not going to happen in Cincy. The Reds did move to pick up some bullpen scraps but none of them is going to shove Chappy into the rotation.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't think the reason runs are down is the pitching. I think the best players in the game have already gotten what PED's really accomplished for them- the 9 figure contracts- and there is a reduced "need" for them now. I still think PED's are used, just not in the -in-your-face- type overkill they were for 20 years when "big" contracts went from $40m to $240m. I do think that the small park HR first tactics of the PED era still linger, and that doesn't help manufacture runs, either. The stolen base, hit and run and productive outs have always been in inverse proportion to the amount of HR hit , and like in the vast majority of the 150 history of baseball, if hitters become humans that hit 20-30 HR in big years instead of 40-70, done of those throwback methods of scoring will resurface as well. It won't all happen next year though.

MLB isn't done looting the game yet, IMO. They'll entertain a new strike zone, gambling, expansion of playoffs, and a 3 ball walk before they'll consider a salary cap or a real PED testing and enforcement policy, because it's all about the money to them.

Just like nuclear weapons and the space race were token tools to hide the real tactic of the Cold War-to bankrupt communism, PED's were just tools to inflate costs and payrolls in order to empty consumers wallets at record pace.

MLB doesn't give a hoot about the HOF,gambling or PED's, any more than the mafia cares about the IRS-they just want to benefit from the loopholes without paying the freight. They'll pay a token penalty occasionally, as long as it doesn't slow down the money machine.

 

[JohnU]

I am amused at the ways MLB is going about not addressing the problems the game faces. Here, the new commissioner is open to discussing a ban on the super-shift defense. Yeah, whatever.

Some other guy is railing on about the strike zone, as if a ball that bounces 4 feet off the plate is still one that Zach Cozart can't read.

If they didn't already fuck it up with the "umpires' folly" -- the "let's let New York sort it out for us" -- the next thing will be a pitch clock, which wouldn't piss me off fully.

I would guess that more games will be played in Japan soon. That's always a good way to lure in new fans -- make the games last 5 hours, put them on at 3 in the morning and tell everyone your sport has gone global.

I just want to sit in Row R, right field side, and watch the damned game.

And if anybody thinks a squeeze play isn't exciting, I should invite you to Gary, where our RailCats execute it at least twice on a home stand.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Descretionary income and lack of common sense may be at an all time high. Makes marketing easy enough to convince people a $500 phone that costs $300/mo to use is a must have. They're selling baseball much the same way. Odd, they still can't convince may people in Florida to buy a ticket to a MLB game though.

As in life, I think baseball doesn't need more new rules, if they would only enforce the ones they have already.

I find it ironic they have a new interpretation protecting the catcher-only player wearing full body protective equipment, but a base runner can still go 6 feet wide of the bag to cleat a SS working a DP, and the SS can receive the ball 3 feet off the bag, and still get the putout. They talk about a pitch clock, but let every hitter step out of the box on every pitch to adjust 5 pieces of unneccessary accessories.

The DH doesn't quicken the game...game gets longer with 15 strikeouts than putting the ball in play, too. Contact is less frequent these days, and it isn't because of the interpretation of the strikezone by umpires-it's because not many hitters can hit a breaking ball trying to pull everything out of the park. No wonder they shift so much now. Baseball IQ at the plate isn't very high, and managers that have lived on two 3 run steroidal HR's and matching up 2 loogies a game aren't assigning much homework.

What MLB has done for baseball is add a neon pink highlight to the Mona Lisa's hair and call it increased value.

 

[Tubbs1518]

The Reds need to trade Cueto, quick, fast and in a hurry.

 

[Redsfan1507]

They may have to trade Cueto, but lame ducks don't get much ready for prime time talent in return...IMO, this team is in trouble this year, without Cueto, with or without the extra payroll his exit would create.

Think Paul Maholm and Jason Marquis are going to have comebacks in this lifetime ? Maybe just long enough to fool someone into making room on the 40 man roster for a couple DFA's in 6 weeks.

Without Cueto, I'm afraid Bailey and Leake become Harang and Arroyo in a pre-Dusty impersonation of the Cincinnati Deads....unless Descalfani's 22nd round pick was a fluke, Igalsias is ready to be the next Cueto, or Holmberg suddenly becomes Tom Browning, or Cingrani grows a curveball...and/or Chapman suddenly becomes a starter after 4 seasons of denying him the opportunity. Lots of those kinds of options don't necessarily make them attractive options.

I remember what 3 longshots in the rotation looks like in the W/L column, and the Pirates, Cubs and Astros aren't 90 plus loss locks in the division anymore. Unless they have a very secret weapon or three, without Cueto, the Reds rotation looks like a contender for the worst in the division to me. Not pretty for a team that often struggles offensively in a hitters park.

 

[JohnU]

I think they gotta ride Cueto to the end of the season. If they flame out, they flame out. These guys won't be far enough out at the deadline to dump him, unless they get a Don Corleone deal.

But I saw the Reds go from 97 wins in 2012 to 76 last year. Not sure what that means, but it happened.

This is probably a team that will have to put three or four career years in a row in the lineup, alleging Frazier and Mesoraco have more ceiling than Bruce does.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Ultimately, just like most teams, the Reds need big years from several players. I know every team has injuries, but the Reds last year were to all the highest paid guys except Cueto, and that's just too many guys expected to carry the load.

I'm not surprised at 20 fewer wins less those guys. What concerns me is that if that's the equasion, we can't be 20 wins better this year, with those guys, but less Latos and Simon, can we ? Agree on Cueto for the same reason- definately can't improve that much adding him to the lost list.

Frazier may have peaked, or will soon. Hamilton should get better, and if Cozart doesn't, he'll get replaced. Byrd for Ludwick is fine, but the key there is getting Winkler or another OF ready by the time he's done...which may be soon. Ironically, if Bruce can go back to hitting 30 HR, is BA may be less important.

Votto and Mesoraco are keys, because there just isn't an equal replacement for them that I can see.

 

[JohnU]

Cueto is a starting pitcher, hence can only affect the outcome, tops, once every 5th day.
What a rotation needs to be is a group of pitchers who go out and do their job -- pitch. Get outs, keep the team in contention, all that. A shutout counts the same as a 21-18 game.

What pitchers have to have is support. That means scoring a couple of runs in the first inning, putting the pedal to the metal, so to speak, keep scoring and let the other team make adjustments.

But these guys go 4 or 5 innings without a hit, more than that without multiple hits ... and last year, when they did do that, the third base coach had them thrown out at home plate.

Baserunners, lineup churn, all that ... Price has his work cut out for him with these guys. There isn't any difference in the approach, unless just having Votto in the game matters.

I can see JV with 40 doubles, 25 dingers and a couple of triples ... so 70 long hits out of a projected 200 or so. One out of three. He gets another 80 walks, so he's on base 270 times in 660 PA ... who else is going to step up?

All I want the pitchers to do is go out and pitch.

 

[eburg5000]

been working a lot of over time and been gone awhile. This site has changed some sense I was last here. I'm sort in the dark of some of the things going on with the Reds lately. Haven't had much time to catch up

 

[JohnU]

Spring drills for the pitchers and catchers. Unless somebody comes up lame, it's usually "I'm about where I want to be," he told MLB. Yadda yadda.

Odds on the Reds locking up Cueto -- I think better than we realize. Is that a good idea?
I'd rather spend the money on bats, to be honest, right now.