Twist or trend?

[tzill]

From Pavlovic today:

7. A Pitching Problem? There were no Giants on the National League Pitcher of the Month ballot, which ultimately doesn’t matter. But it’s a bit of a sign of the way things were.

Barry Zito had a 6.46 ERA in six August starts; Ryan Vogelsong was at 6.32. The back end of the bullpen got shelled and even Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner had some uncharacteristic outings. The rough month has turned into a rough month-plus: The Giants ERA in September is 5.31. That certainly will be the focus this weekend and in the coming weeks.

Six weeks is a long time to suck...I hope GP is right and it's just another up/down cycle.

 

[calsnowskier]

Iirc, the pitching was suspect in august 2010 as well...

 

[msgkings322]

Iirc, the pitching was suspect in august 2010 as well...

Lincecum was beyond terrible that month, but I don't recall the rest of the staff being bad.

 

[SF11704]

Six weeks is a long time to suck...I hope GP is right and it's just another up/down cycle.

Sure hope so. What concerns me is that this seems to be at a 'staff' level. Having Zeets suck and even having Timmy struggling was ok as long as Cain, MadBum and Vogey were still performing ..... 3 of the 5 SPs always seemed to have a good game as we went through the rotation. The pen was pretty stable. It just doesn't look that way at the moment. We seem to be struggling at all levels and with most of the staff.

Playing a good 3 game set with the Doyers this weekend will go a long way in making things better. As I stated before .... have to have at least one W. Two would be nice. Just can't afford to be swept.

 

[msgkings322]

Sure hope so. What concerns me is that this seems to be at a 'staff' level. Having Zeets suck and even having Timmy struggling was ok as long as Cain, MadBum and Vogey were still performing ..... 3 of the 5 SPs always seemed to have a good game as we went through the rotation. The pen was pretty stable. It just doesn't look that way at the moment. We seem to be struggling at all levels and with most of the staff.

Playing a good 3 game set with the Doyers this weekend will go a long way in making things better. As I stated before .... have to have at least one W. Two would be nice. Just can't afford to be swept.

But would tzill prefer we sweep the Dogs 9-6, 10-8, and 8-7 or get swept 1-0, 2-1, 3-2?

 

[SF11704]

But would tzill prefer we sweep the Dogs 9-6, 10-8, and 8-7 or get swept 1-0, 2-1, 3-2?

I think all fans really want their team to win first. How they get to that point may not really matter in the final scope of things. If we were 20 games out with 30 to play then Tzill may prefer to watch a 3-2 loss rather than a 9-8 win. The importance of the game itself would dictate his preference I think.

If we made it into the WS series I am sure he would take a 15-12 win over a 3-2 loss. I understand what he is trying to say but I also think there are many other factors that wind up influencing his final choice. I don't have any doubts that Tzill is a direhard Giant fan and just like the rest of us ..... he bleeds a little with each and every loss.

 

[tzill]

Iirc, the pitching was suspect in august 2010 as well...

Was it? Was it suspect for six weeks?

I'm asking b/c I don't want to do the research, but I don't remember it that way. I remember Timmy having a crappy August.

 

[tzill]

But would tzill prefer we sweep the Dogs 9-6, 10-8, and 8-7 or get swept 1-0, 2-1, 3-2?

A fair question, although I see what you're doing here:

That's a Hobson's choice for me. I guess I'd slightly lean toward the Giant's sweep, but it'd make me a bit nauseous.

 

[gp956]

sOPS+ comparison: 2010 vs. 2012

Split  2010    2012
Mar	66	90
May	83	88
Jun	104	85
Jul	101	98
Aug	112	106
Sep	54	-

 

[calsnowskier]

sOPS+ comparison: 2010 vs. 2012

Split  2010    2012
Mar	66	90
May	83	88
Jun	104	85
Jul	101	98
Aug	112	106
Sep	54	-

While I am not surprised to see '10 actually performing well, I am very surprised to see '12 perform so poorly.


Hmmm

 

[calsnowskier]

Was it? Was it suspect for six weeks?

I'm asking b/c I don't want to do the research, but I don't remember it that way. I remember Timmy having a crappy August.

I am not looking it up either, but wasn't it in late august that sabeysabes ripped into the staff for shitting the bed?

 

[gp956]

While I am not surprised to see '10 actually performing well, I am very surprised to see '12 perform so poorly.


Hmmm

How do you get that? Cumulative sOPS+ through August:

2010 - 466
2012 - 467

2010 will end up being much better, because an sOPS+ of 54 in September isn't going to happen in 2012. But, the point here, if we beleive these numbers, is the 2010 team was worse in August, than this 2012 team. For the year they had higher peaks, and lower lows.

 

[tzill]

How do you get that? Cumulative sOPS+ through August:

2010 - 466
2012 - 467

2010 will end up being much better, because an sOPS+ of 54 in September isn't going to happen in 2012. But, the point here, if we beleive these numbers, is the 2010 team was worse in August, than this 2012 team. For the year they had higher peaks, and lower lows.

Nice work...and the stats are counterintuitive to me. But that could be some Dunning-Kruger mixed in with weighting things with recency more heavily. Only question: where are the April stats?

 

[tzill]

Another thought: can you get your hands on the sOPS for just the SPs? I'm assuming the stats above are for the whole staff, but maybe sOPS refers to just the starters?

 

[gp956]

Nice work...and the stats are counterintuitive to me. But that could be some Dunning-Kruger mixed in with weighting things with recency more heavily. Only question: where are the April stats?

They're included in the Mar stats. I meant to label that "Apr" not sure how I ended up with Mar.

 

[gp956]

Another thought: can you get your hands on the sOPS for just the SPs? I'm assuming the stats above are for the whole staff, but maybe sOPS refers to just the starters?

Starters sOPS+ comparison:

Split	2010	2012
Apr	54	76
May	80	90
Jun	105	75
Jul	97	94
Aug	123	100
Sep	63	-

Cumulative:

2010: 459
2012: 435

 

[tzill]

Starters sOPS+ comparison:

Split	2010	2012
Apr	54	76
May	80	90
Jun	105	75
Jul	97	94
Aug	123	100
Sep	63	-

Cumulative:

2010: 459
2012: 435

Wow...that really blows my mind. The SP were league average for August? Who knew.

Thanks for the work.

 

[gp956]

Wow...that really blows my mind. The SP were league average for August? Who knew.

Thanks for the work.

For this metric. You might look at FIP, or ERA+ by month too.

 

[gp956]

Final sOPS+ comparison: 2010 vs. 2012

Split  2010    2012
Mar	66	90
May	83	88
Jun	104	85
Jul	101	98
Aug	112	106
Sep	54	102

The offensive got the team to the playoffs, and the pitching staff got it together enough to get us to the world series, and then they simply imposed their will upon the Detroit Tigers. The question I have is: did we deserve to win this thing, or not?

 

[Heathbar012]

Final sOPS+ comparison: 2010 vs. 2012

Split  2010    2012
Mar	66	90
May	83	88
Jun	104	85
Jul	101	98
Aug	112	106
Sep	54	102

The offensive got the team to the playoffs, and the pitching staff got it together enough to get us to the world series, and then they simply imposed their will upon the Detroit Tigers. The question I have is: did we deserve to win this thing, or not?