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Attached is the full ESPN Insider article that talks about this.
Likeliest upsets in NCAA tournament round of 32 - NCB - ESPN
We've spent the past two days filling your curious minds with every ounce of information possible to predict upsets in the round of 64. Now it's time to look ahead a bit.
Below, you'll find the upset chances for every potential round-of-32 matchup with Giant-Killing implications (i.e., a five-seed difference), with the exception of games involving a 15- or 16-seed. If one of those teams wins its opening game, you'll hear plenty more from us.
A couple of key notes before you devour the list:
• There are situations in which, of two possible matchups, the team with the lower Giant Killer rating has the higher chance of pulling off an upset. (For example, Gonzaga against Iowa or Davidson.) That's not an error. It's the result of cluster analysis. That piece of our formula, as we've explained, groups Giants into four different "clans" based on style of play, and does the same for Killers, then adjusts the upset odds based on the historical results of meetings between various clans. But all you really need to know is that it makes our model's predictions more accurate.
• Speaking of accuracy, you'll find two different entries for Arizona against VCU. The first includes VCU's full-season stats. But we've also run VCU's numbers for the time since they lost Briante Weber to a season-ending injury on Jan. 31. If you'd like to evaluate the Rams purely on what they've done since then, we've given you the tools to do so.
• As you'll see, the No. 1 seeds appear to be quite safe in the round of 32. But the No. 2 seeds are in all sorts of trouble. Pay particularly attention to Arizona, which is guaranteed to face one of our two best Giant Killers: VCU (full-season stats) or Ohio State.
And with that, here are the numbers. We'll of course be back with more analysis as the games are finalized.
I posted the thread before I was ready, so I will upload the article and do the Top 15 in my next post.
Likeliest upsets in NCAA tournament round of 32 - NCB - ESPN
We've spent the past two days filling your curious minds with every ounce of information possible to predict upsets in the round of 64. Now it's time to look ahead a bit.
Below, you'll find the upset chances for every potential round-of-32 matchup with Giant-Killing implications (i.e., a five-seed difference), with the exception of games involving a 15- or 16-seed. If one of those teams wins its opening game, you'll hear plenty more from us.
A couple of key notes before you devour the list:
• There are situations in which, of two possible matchups, the team with the lower Giant Killer rating has the higher chance of pulling off an upset. (For example, Gonzaga against Iowa or Davidson.) That's not an error. It's the result of cluster analysis. That piece of our formula, as we've explained, groups Giants into four different "clans" based on style of play, and does the same for Killers, then adjusts the upset odds based on the historical results of meetings between various clans. But all you really need to know is that it makes our model's predictions more accurate.
• Speaking of accuracy, you'll find two different entries for Arizona against VCU. The first includes VCU's full-season stats. But we've also run VCU's numbers for the time since they lost Briante Weber to a season-ending injury on Jan. 31. If you'd like to evaluate the Rams purely on what they've done since then, we've given you the tools to do so.
• As you'll see, the No. 1 seeds appear to be quite safe in the round of 32. But the No. 2 seeds are in all sorts of trouble. Pay particularly attention to Arizona, which is guaranteed to face one of our two best Giant Killers: VCU (full-season stats) or Ohio State.
And with that, here are the numbers. We'll of course be back with more analysis as the games are finalized.
We've spent the past two days filling your curious minds with every ounce of information possible to predict upsets in the round of 64. Now it's time to look ahead a bit.
Below, you'll find the upset chances for every potential round-of-32 matchup with Giant-Killing implications (i.e., a five-seed difference), with the exception of games involving a 15- or 16-seed. If one of those teams wins its opening game, you'll hear plenty more from us.
A couple of key notes before you devour the list:
• There are situations in which, of two possible matchups, the team with the lower Giant Killer rating has the higher chance of pulling off an upset. (For example, Gonzaga against Iowa or Davidson.) That's not an error. It's the result of cluster analysis. That piece of our formula, as we've explained, groups Giants into four different "clans" based on style of play, and does the same for Killers, then adjusts the upset odds based on the historical results of meetings between various clans. But all you really need to know is that it makes our model's predictions more accurate.
• Speaking of accuracy, you'll find two different entries for Arizona against VCU. The first includes VCU's full-season stats. But we've also run VCU's numbers for the time since they lost Briante Weber to a season-ending injury on Jan. 31. If you'd like to evaluate the Rams purely on what they've done since then, we've given you the tools to do so.
• As you'll see, the No. 1 seeds appear to be quite safe in the round of 32. But the No. 2 seeds are in all sorts of trouble. Pay particularly attention to Arizona, which is guaranteed to face one of our two best Giant Killers: VCU (full-season stats) or Ohio State.
And with that, here are the numbers. We'll of course be back with more analysis as the games are finalized.
Below, you'll find the upset chances for every potential round-of-32 matchup with Giant-Killing implications (i.e., a five-seed difference), with the exception of games involving a 15- or 16-seed. If one of those teams wins its opening game, you'll hear plenty more from us.
A couple of key notes before you devour the list:
• There are situations in which, of two possible matchups, the team with the lower Giant Killer rating has the higher chance of pulling off an upset. (For example, Gonzaga against Iowa or Davidson.) That's not an error. It's the result of cluster analysis. That piece of our formula, as we've explained, groups Giants into four different "clans" based on style of play, and does the same for Killers, then adjusts the upset odds based on the historical results of meetings between various clans. But all you really need to know is that it makes our model's predictions more accurate.
• Speaking of accuracy, you'll find two different entries for Arizona against VCU. The first includes VCU's full-season stats. But we've also run VCU's numbers for the time since they lost Briante Weber to a season-ending injury on Jan. 31. If you'd like to evaluate the Rams purely on what they've done since then, we've given you the tools to do so.
• As you'll see, the No. 1 seeds appear to be quite safe in the round of 32. But the No. 2 seeds are in all sorts of trouble. Pay particularly attention to Arizona, which is guaranteed to face one of our two best Giant Killers: VCU (full-season stats) or Ohio State.
And with that, here are the numbers. We'll of course be back with more analysis as the games are finalized.
I posted the thread before I was ready, so I will upload the article and do the Top 15 in my next post.
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