The Giants' minor league system

[Heathbar012]

Agreed, I'm not big on Castro as well. He will be a very good player yes, but not worth selling the farm for.

I'd be much more inclined to get a player like Andrus, whom is VERY comparable to Castro. Guys are about 1 and a half years apart, raw, speedy, average-based shortstops. Castro has seen his average rise each year, but as his K rate and his walk rate is sharply declining. Seeing his walk rate shed that quickly (it's at 2.3% from 5.7%!!!!) and his K rate rise (15.7% from 13.4%) scares the shit out of me for a young player. To put it into perspective, he's making Pablo Sandoval look like Barry Bonds out there. Meanwhile, Andrus has seen the opposite. His K rate is steadily decreasing (14.2% to 11.8%) and his BB rate is increasing (8.4% to 10.5%) with his batting average. Plus, Andrus is the much more polished defender than Castro (Andrus learned from his idol, Omar Vizquel).

Andrus won't cost as much as Castro (though still a very big package), but I think Andrus would better fit this club. The Rangers won't be looking to trade Andrus anytime soon, but they have top prospect Profar coming soon and Andrus could be made available. But again, relating to my last post, I still don't think I'd give up THAT much.

Fine by me. Stamos/Arias can play second.

 

[CameronFrye]

Agreed, I'm not big on Castro as well. He will be a very good player yes, but not worth selling the farm for.

I'd be much more inclined to get a player like Andrus, whom is VERY comparable to Castro. Guys are about 1 and a half years apart, raw, speedy, average-based shortstops. Castro has seen his average rise each year, but as his K rate and his walk rate is sharply declining. Seeing his walk rate shed that quickly (it's at 2.3% from 5.7%!!!!) and his K rate rise (15.7% from 13.4%) scares the shit out of me for a young player. To put it into perspective, he's making Pablo Sandoval look like Barry Bonds out there. Meanwhile, Andrus has seen the opposite. His K rate is steadily decreasing (14.2% to 11.8%) and his BB rate is increasing (8.4% to 10.5%) with his batting average. Plus, Andrus is the much more polished defender than Castro (Andrus learned from his idol, Omar Vizquel).

Andrus won't cost as much as Castro (though still a very big package), but I think Andrus would better fit this club. The Rangers won't be looking to trade Andrus anytime soon, but they have top prospect Profar coming soon and Andrus could be made available. But again, relating to my last post, I still don't think I'd give up THAT much.

You make Castro sound like a flash in the pan with your description of him. The kid is a .300 hitter with a .340 OBP. He is as good defensively as Stamos and is much faster as well. Castro has as much range as he needs to succeed. He is going to be a VERY solid shortstop for the next decade.

Profar is getting his head handed to him in Single-A this season. Even if he gets back on track, he is a few years away at the earliest. Andrus is going absolutely nowhere until 2015 at the earliest. Even then, Andrus is still improving, so Profar might end up being the trade bait while Andrus stays.

Profar does not help SF because they need to improve the SS spot right now.

But this discussion matters not because the Giants' farm system has nothing but average prospects and there is no combination of minor leaguers they have that would even tempt Epstein to pull the trigger on a deal.

 

[SFGRTB]

You make Castro sound like a flash in the pan with your description of him. The kid is a .300 hitter with a .340 OBP. He is as good defensively as Stamos and is much faster as well. Castro has as much range as he needs to succeed. He is going to be a VERY solid shortstop for the next decade.

Profar is getting his head handed to him in Single-A this season. Even if he gets back on track, he is a few years away at the earliest. Andrus is going absolutely nowhere until 2015 at the earliest. Even then, Andrus is still improving, so Profar might end up being the trade bait while Andrus stays.

Profar does not help SF because they need to improve the SS spot right now.

But this discussion matters not because the Giants' farm system has nothing but average prospects and there is no combination of minor leaguers they have that would even tempt Epstein to pull the trigger on a deal.

Castro's OBP this year is .329, his BA is .317. Kid is a good hitter, yes, but there are way too many red flags around him for me to be ready to invest in him. If he were showing positive trends, I'd be less leery. Unfortunately, declining walk rate and increasing strikeout rate raises issues. Plus, defensive metrics show that Castro in his career has been a poor defender, and show his range ain't all that good (-7.9 URZ career).

Would I be at all surprised if he turns into a league leading hitter every year? Probably not. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .280/.320 OPB, which with poor fielding isn't anything spectacular.

And BTW, Profar has a .292/.358/.500 slash line with 25 XBH and 7 steals in AA (not floundering in A-ball). He could be up next year.

 

[CameronFrye]

Castro's OBP this year is .329, his BA is .317. Kid is a good hitter, yes, but there are way too many red flags around him for me to be ready to invest in him. If he were showing positive trends, I'd be less leery. Unfortunately, declining walk rate and increasing strikeout rate raises issues. Plus, defensive metrics show that Castro in his career has been a poor defender, and show his range ain't all that good (-7.9 URZ career).

Would I be at all surprised if he turns into a league leading hitter every year? Probably not. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .280/.320 OPB, which with poor fielding isn't anything spectacular.

And BTW, Profar has a .292/.358/.500 slash line with 25 XBH and 7 steals in AA (not floundering in A-ball). He could be up next year.

Then the Giants should target him. Now.

 

[Heathbar012]

Castro's OBP this year is .329, his BA is .317. Kid is a good hitter, yes, but there are way too many red flags around him for me to be ready to invest in him. If he were showing positive trends, I'd be less leery. Unfortunately, declining walk rate and increasing strikeout rate raises issues. Plus, defensive metrics show that Castro in his career has been a poor defender, and show his range ain't all that good (-7.9 URZ career).

Would I be at all surprised if he turns into a league leading hitter every year? Probably not. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see him hit .280/.320 OPB, which with poor fielding isn't anything spectacular.

And BTW, Profar has a .292/.358/.500 slash line with 25 XBH and 7 steals in AA (not floundering in A-ball). He could be up next year.

SSS. Go with his first two years in the bigs... when he wasn't dealing with accusations of sexual assault. I agree that Andrus is better with the leather, but Castro has a cannon (not that Elvis is a slouch). This is about need-based moves that would deplete the farm. It (EDIT: "It" being depleting the farm) doesn't matter if the Giants get a good, young cost-controlled SS or 2B (that can also fill in at 3B). Either way, a need would be filled (one of the few needs left on this squad, if you ask me) for at least the next two years, and possibly, the next decade.

Of course, this is all speculative, and any package of Giants' prospects and easily-sacrificed players on the big club (Belt, Schierholtz, Burriss, Theriot, Crawford, Huff, etc.) most likely won't pry away Andrus or Castro. I'm fine grabbing either player for any deal that starts with Brown, Hembree, Panik and Joseph to get the ball rolling, though. Any great trade prospect can end up with a .320 OBP for their career, but if at ages 20 and 21 (in the big leagues), his OBP is .347 and .341, respectively, I'd bet against it.

 

[SFGRTB]

Then the Giants should target him. Now.

SSS. Go with his first two years in the bigs... when he wasn't dealing with accusations of sexual assault. I agree that Andrus is better with the leather, but Castro has a cannon (not that Elvis is a slouch). This is about need-based moves that would deplete the farm. It (EDIT: "It" being depleting the farm) doesn't matter if the Giants get a good, young cost-controlled SS or 2B (that can also fill in at 3B). Either way, a need would be filled (one of the few needs left on this squad, if you ask me) for at least the next two years, and possibly, the next decade.

Of course, this is all speculative, and any package of Giants' prospects and easily-sacrificed players on the big club (Belt, Schierholtz, Burriss, Theriot, Crawford, Huff, etc.) most likely won't pry away Andrus or Castro. I'm fine grabbing either player for any deal that starts with Brown, Hembree, Panik and Joseph to get the ball rolling, though. Any great trade prospect can end up with a .320 OBP for their career, but if at ages 20 and 21 (in the big leagues), his OBP is .347 and .341, respectively, I'd bet against it.

Again, I'm not saying I wouldn't want Castro. He has already proved more than any of our current prospects have and may ever will. Would I be thrilled if we got him? Yeah, cost controlled SS that is a proven .300 hitter in this league and substantially better than anything we can throw out there right now and the foreseeable future. But, based on what we have now prospect wise means we would have to completely wipe the system clean, and then some (like take on a bad contract). I just don't think it's worth it. I'd rather have the depth.

 

[Heathbar012]

Again, I'm not saying I wouldn't want Castro. He has already proved more than any of our current prospects have and may ever will. Would I be thrilled if we got him? Yeah, cost controlled SS that is a proven .300 hitter in this league and substantially better than anything we can throw out there right now and the foreseeable future. But, based on what we have now prospect wise means we would have to completely wipe the system clean, and then some (like take on a bad contract). I just don't think it's worth it. I'd rather have the depth.

I completely understand where you're coming from because I, like you, am not going anywhere anytime soon. The longevity of winning for this franchise is something that will, at least, tangentially and slightly, give me a better outlook on life. Also, as always, I respect your breadth of knowledge on this subject, and greatly value your opinion. This is more of a difference of opinion in the front office strategy moving forward.

Two years ago, I would have completely agreed with your assessment. As you know, the team (and farm) is almost completely different from two years ago, but as you eloquently pointed out, Castro is cost-controlled right now, and isn't eligible for FA until 2017. If the current crop of top prospects in the system aren't blowing anyone away right now, isn't it safe to assume that after the next two drafts, the farm will be ranked similarly to how it is right now? At the very least, if the Giants free up some arb money for Castro or stick with Andrus until he is a FA in 2015 (assuming they can get either of them by wiping the farm clean... still a big IF), they conceivably could have a better system than they have right now when those two would be due for their biggest pay-day to date.

I know this is scary thinking because, in some ways, this model contributed to the awfulness that we all witnessed toward the end of Bonds career and a few years Post Bonds (A.D.). However, there is a lot more talent spread out at important positions on this squad than what we witnessed post-2002 (maybe even during 2002... no offense to Jeff Kent and Rich Aurilia). Again, it is highly unlikely that either of these great, young players would be available for "everything" the Giants have, but to fill such a big hole, so quickly, for so little money, for such a long time, is worth the prospect cost to me. EDIT: I hope it is worth it to SabeySabes and BaeryBaer, too.

 

[dredinis21]

I don't know about the idea that we DON'T have enough in the minors. First, you would have to look at what the strength of our organization is vs. what the Cubbies/Rangers might want. We do a great job drafting and developing pitchers and we have a bunch of them in the low minors posting remarkable K/BB ratios and some other key stats that clubs use to judge pitching talent, much like is being pointed out about Andrus and Castro. If the Cubbies are looking for young pitching, we are an ideal trading partner for Theo.

The kicker in this is that we don't know the mindset of Theo. Is Theo cleaning house so he can continue to draft, develop, and trade for his "money ball" type guys with the idea of seriously competing in 2-3 yrs? Or is the pressure on him to turn a lump of shit into gold like yesterday. If he did what he did in Boston, then we very much may have some players that he and the Cubbies may be interested in to start the convo. If he is in "win now" mode, then we got nothing.

 

[SFGRTB]

I completely understand where you're coming from because I, like you, am not going anywhere anytime soon. The longevity of winning for this franchise is something that will, at least, tangentially and slightly, give me a better outlook on life. Also, as always, I respect your breadth of knowledge on this subject, and greatly value your opinion. This is more of a difference of opinion in the front office strategy moving forward.

Two years ago, I would have completely agreed with your assessment. As you know, the team (and farm) is almost completely different from two years ago, but as you eloquently pointed out, Castro is cost-controlled right now, and isn't eligible for FA until 2017. If the current crop of top prospects in the system aren't blowing anyone away right now, isn't it safe to assume that after the next two drafts, the farm will be ranked similarly to how it is right now? At the very least, if the Giants free up some arb money for Castro or stick with Andrus until he is a FA in 2015 (assuming they can get either of them by wiping the farm clean... still a big IF), they conceivably could have a better system than they have right now when those two would be due for their biggest pay-day to date.

I know this is scary thinking because, in some ways, this model contributed to the awfulness that we all witnessed toward the end of Bonds career and a few years Post Bonds (A.D.). However, there is a lot more talent spread out at important positions on this squad than what we witnessed post-2002 (maybe even during 2002... no offense to Jeff Kent and Rich Aurilia). Again, it is highly unlikely that either of these great, young players would be available for "everything" the Giants have, but to fill such a big hole, so quickly, for so little money, for such a long time, is worth the prospect cost to me. EDIT: I hope it is worth it to SabeySabes and BaeryBaer, too.

Well said and Rep'd (hey it worked!)

I hear what you're saying. I for one will admit that I tend to be homer-ish towards our prospects (if it wasn't already evident) and would prefer to hold on to them, except for the right deal. I guess I just feel Castro wouldn't be the right deal.

But OTOH, looking at past trades like the Halladay, Santana, Sabathia, Texeria etc., the team giving up the prospects haven't missed out on much. So, I try to take that as an example.

 

[mistgl]

Well said and Rep'd (hey it worked!)

I hear what you're saying. I for one will admit that I tend to be homer-ish towards our prospects (if it wasn't already evident) and would prefer to hold on to them, except for the right deal. I guess I just feel Castro wouldn't be the right deal.

But OTOH, looking at past trades like the Halladay, Santana, Sabathia, Texeria etc., the team giving up the prospects haven't missed out on much. So, I try to take that as an example.

I wont knock the Jays for what they got in the Doc deal. He straight up told them he would go to two teams, and two teams only, Phillie and NY. The fact that they got what the did out of ti is pretty amazing. Gose looks like a none head case version of Tony plush, Drabek isn't the Ace he was supposed to be, but a solid 3-4, and D'rNaud or w/e his name is, is the best catching prospect in baseball.

Also, the Tex deal is how the rangers got Andrus and Feliz....

 

[SFGRTB]

I wont knock the Jays for what they got in the Doc deal. He straight up told them he would go to two teams, and two teams only, Phillie and NY. The fact that they got what the did out of ti is pretty amazing. Gose looks like a none head case version of Tony plush, Drabek isn't the Ace he was supposed to be, but a solid 3-4, and D'rNaud or w/e his name is, is the best catching prospect in baseball.

Also, the Tex deal is how the rangers got Andrus and Feliz....

Shit my bad on the Tex deal I was thinking Kotchman all the way. Think they got Martin Perez too.

And the Halladay return was pretty good too, though they got Goose in a different deal.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

The Giants have some decent players in the minors Brown, Joseph, Hembree, Panik... But really they've depleted the talent down there because most of it is up here... Sandoval, Posey, Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner, Romo, Sanchez, Crawford, Schierholtz, Vogelsong! , Belt, Pill, Burris scraping the barrel but still. I left some people off (BP I'm lookin at you) but my point is, you can't expect a Posey/Sandoval to sprout every year. So I'm happy.