ST thread

[JohnU]

It was also the Angels, which are a pretty damned good hitting team. I think Arizona numbers are misleading but if the kid did what he wanted to do, we can only take his word for it. No telling what the catcher was telling him to throw. Desclafani is probably a half-season talent at this point in his career. I can see him going 7-2 in the first half and 3-9 in the second half, other statistics relevant to those figures.

 

[Redsfan1507]

ST is a crapshoot,IMO. If Bendan Boesh could hit like he has this spring, he'd be still be playing elsewhere. Same with Marquis and Maholm, and a few of the traded youngsters I suppose. Timing, they say, is everything, and I'd like to believe Jocketty still has some good timing in his pocket.

A question-If the dump of Latos,Ludwick and Simon was a cost cutter, and they can't sign Cueto, but do sign Leake to something in the sub $50M range of contract, and Desclafani, Suarez and the trade returns don't pan out, was it worth saving the cash to extend Mesoraco, Chapman, and pay the contractual increases for Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Bailey, etc. ? I think it all depends on which side of the ticket you stand. If the Reds are competitive, and buying tickets, I think it's ok. If not, no one is happy.

Only time can tell. There is a distinct possibility some double A players may ride in to be an answer in a year.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Reds making first cuts this week- probables are young guys with options- Duran, Winkler, Travieso, Stephenson, Feliz, etc. I suspect vets to stick around a while- Marquis and Maholm, and since Badenhop signed he probably makes the team regardless of performance. Boesch looks like a hot guy with some MLB experience that can steal a PH/ last OF job-maybe forcing Yorman down again. They say they want Suarez to play everyday, so that sounds like Negron might get a backup utility infield spot. I think he's out of options but Lutz may be toast anyway if Shu and Boesh make the roster. I don't think they'll keep 3 C but I suspect with 20-25 pitchers left in camp Barnhart will stick around to the end of camp anyway.

 

[JohnU]

Boesch is probably a 5th outfielder for most teams in the NL and considering the Reds need an outfielder, I'd say he's in. The trick for some of these guys is to have a good spring in case they are DFA and can get a gig somewhere besides Caracas.

As for being competitive, this team can stay in the hunt through August if most of the money players show up 5 days a week. I don't think they can close the deal, though.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

IMO, trading Broxton, Heisey, Latos, and Simon were all a payroll correction from the all-in moves the Reds made a couple years ago. The 2014 payroll was around $114M record amount and without the cuts it would have balooned to over $140M in 2015.

Bailey was trending to the plus side and Cueto was coming off injury when Homer signed his deal. If Cueto had a healthy 2013, the decision would have been more difficult. Once the deal was done both Latos and Cueto were unaffordable if healthy. Was it the right decision? Not if Cueto puts up 2014 type numbers the next 4-5 years.

Letting Ludwick go didn't save much. They owed him the $4.5 M buyout and ended up paying Byrd $4M, so LF is still costing the Reds $8.5M. Probably an upgrade for $500k less.

I agree Boesch is going to make the team. Another guy having a good early ST is Irving Falu, but Negron would have to be the favorite coming into camp. Possibly one of either Dominguez, Satin, and or Lutz round out the other possible candidates in my humble opinion. Of those five there's only room for two based on recent Opening Day rosters.

 

[JohnU]

Negron makes Satin and Dominguez somewhat irrelevant if we can presume that Negron can play 3B and let Frazier slide to 1B to give Votto a day off. Satin does have some outfield experience.

I like what I've seen of Irving Falu.

I was hoping this team could be strong enough to go with 12 pitchers but as it stands, 14 might not be enough.

This may all come down to (a.) contractual complexities or (b.) clubhouse attitude.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see that Boom Boom Hoover gave up another bomb today.

They say Dominguez plays LF, RF, 1B, and 3B and is pretty fast for a big guy with power. Satin plays OF and the infield corners with some pop. Neither one of them looks stout defensively, but profile as a RH power bench bat.

I'm not convinced Negron can hit. He had success in a small sample size, but his minor league numbers are pretty weak. If he picks up where he left off last year he'd be OK, but he has struggled early in ST.

The Reds outfield options are lefthanded dominant. Not many RH options in the mix to make the big club. I'd like to see a righthand bat with some pop on the bench. Boesch provides power from the left side.

Seems like everyone on the bench the past few years profiled as a light hitting middle IF even when they weren't.

 

[JohnU]

Hoover should hope to be DFA and picked up by the Mariners.

 

[JohnU]

Dominguez has a pretty nice line on long hits -- quite a few doubles.

HIS LINE

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The bench tends to draw a lot of criticism, but the last two years the Reds' PH have been top 5 in the league and hit at or above league average PH HR's.

The perception of the Reds' bench weakness probably has more to due with them getting more AB's than their talent warrants. Used in their proper roles they've done OK I suppose.

The team as a whole hit .238 last year. Injuries and such played a role in that number. If the starting eight produce above league average and can stay on the field the bench needs only fill the roles they're really signed for.... spot starts and PH.

 

[JohnU]

Regular at-bats from the top players will probably add a half-run to the offense, which could increase the win total by one or two a month. They would be in contention with that, assuming the other teams don't improve as well.

I agree on the bench. Most teams are very thin past the front line but when you have below-replacement guys getting 30 AB a week, it tends to make you weary.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The business of baseball usually dictates ST performance isn't important if a guy has a MLB contract you can't trade. I think Badenhop falls in that category. Marquis and Maholm would also fall into that same thought process, if they made the team, plus they have the added inconvenience of making room on the 40 man roster. Is Boesch the same way ? That's sometimes like trading a couple of minor leaguers in addition to whatever they get in contract, all bad science, IMO, if you have longer term possibilities in the system. That's why I see them almost as an act of desperation if they are signed, especially if they are only needed until Bailey returns... If true, it's sad a PH or 5th outfielder or temporary 5th SP isn't available from AAA.

 

[JohnU]

FIRST CUTS.Boesch's stock just went up.


Reds option Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez
by R.J. White | CBSSports.com
The Reds made their first round of spring cuts Tuesday, optioning outfielder Juan Duran to Double-A Pensacola and outfielder Yorman Rodriguez to Triple-A Louisville.

The team also re-assigned eight players to minor league camp, including infielder Neftali Soto, outfielders Ryan LaMarre and Jesse Winker and pitchers Jonathon Crawford, Ismael Guillon, Nick Howard, Robert Stephenson and Nick Travieso.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There may be only one bright side to having a weak 40 man roster..... when you DFA a guy off to make room for some other bum, nobody else wants him and you get to keep him. Not much of a bright side really, getting to keep a player nobody else wants.

Yorman is going to be using his last option year in 2015 and will possibly go the route of Neftali Soto come November. Juan Duran has two option years remaining. Soto and LaMarre are just collecting a check and all the other players assigned haven't started their clock and are normal house cleaning moves.

It's still possible, but doubtful that the Reds will fill the needed roster spots with the current 40 man. Another option is a waiver claim from another team clearing space between now and Opening Day.

It'd be nice to see a prospect make it once in awhile. One guy that they didn't assign was Michael Lorenzen. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but the kid has come on quick and they really like him.

When a player is close to being ready, it doesn't necessarily hurt to add him to the roster. They have three option years. If a nearly ready prospect needs three option years as a safety net, then he's not much of a prospect, IMO.

 

[JohnU]

I think it's safe to say that no serious hitters are going on the waiver wire. Hitting seems to be the currency of the moment in the big leagues.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree you won't find many everyday position players on the waiver wire. Generally the guys you do see are the Emilio Bonifacio or Jose Tabata types that are attempts to dump salary while clearing room for a move.

Most players waived are back page news, but every now and then you get a Alfredo Simon.

 

[JohnU]

Cincy has a better-than-fair record for reclaiming pitchers, if you count Arthur Rhodes and generally what Manny Parra has done. Jumbo Diaz was once a lost cause. Simon, of course. All that established, it's probably easier to "fix" a pitcher's mechanics than it is to teach a guy to hit a breaking pitch.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Generally, waiver picks have been de-railed a few times by organizations that painted themselves into that corner. Diamonds found in dung are rare. It is preferable to try to mine them instead of find overlooked ones.

ST is such a short look, especially when so much PT is given to less than prime time players, and guys just getting their arm loose working on another pitch they may or may not toss 3 times a week in season. I do think the Reds might have some farm help on the horizon. Lorenzen and Dominguez are impressive, others look like they have a clue. Most with options are offed to the minors because they're blocked by bigger contracts, as much as by better players. It would be nice to add a couple of guys that can hit- especially if they can play 3b- Frazier isn't bad there, but he can also play 1b and LF. All else equal, it's better to still have a MLB lineup when a starter or two is down. Wasn't the case enough last year.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Apparently Lutz has a fourth option year. It's rare to see a guy with 4, but it's one of those obscure rules that's involves MiLB shorter than normal seasons not counting. The Reds seem to like the guy and a additional year buys them another year before they have to make a decision on him.

The option year rules, rule 5 draft, and 6 year minor league free agency rules were all intended to keep wealthier teams from stock piling talent. With the addition of so many teams over the years the talent pool has become diluted. The guys made available through waivers and rule 5 picks aren't of the same quality as they used to be.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

IMO, the Reds have already sent the first clue that Frazier may not be signed after his third arbitration year. They signed him to the first two years, but didn't extend him into his free agency years like they did with Mesoraco. Todd is older than Devin and most players when they become free agent eligible. He'll turn 32 before his first season begins as a free agent.

The Reds drafted SS Alex Blandino with the Choo compensation pick. As with most SS drafted they tend to profile elsewhere as they develop. Blandino's projection leans toward playing third base.

Payroll is always a consideration as we're seeing with the dismantling of a pretty damn good rotation. A pre-arbitration player filling a everyday position or rotation spot is a huge plus.