Some CFP goodness from fivethirtyeight

[Tharvot]

Normally my site of choice for breaking down all the whatifs and making sense of all the polls in the political world, they have done an excellent job recently in the sports world...notably, breaking down the CFP.

Here's a good article where they break down some of their calculations and simulations in predicting probability for the ranked teams to make the CFP, enjoy:

The Week In College Football: Conferences Are Weird, So Our Predictions Are Too

 

[NDHoosier101]

Aren't Stanford and ND pretty much in the same situation? Win out with a no Big12 teams going undefeated and you're in, with both needing Baylor to lose but may squeeze in past an undefeated Okie St. How does Stanford then have a 96% chance of making the playoff if they win out where ND only has a 74% chance of making it in if they win out?

 

[Tharvot]

Aren't Stanford and ND pretty much in the same situation? Win out with a no Big12 teams going undefeated and you're in, with both needing Baylor to lose but may squeeze in past an undefeated Okie St. How does Stanford then have a 96% chance of making the playoff if they win out where ND only has a 74% chance of making it in if they win out?

My guess is that a Stanford win vs ND plus a CCG win propels them more than a ND win over Stanford and no CCG. Upon first glance, I think ND has the lowest chance of making the CFP if they win out of all teams in the top 10.

In either case, if they do not win out there isn't a great shot of getting in and if one of the B12 schools wins out, there's a good shot they leapfrog Stanford and ND regardless.

 

[rmilia1]

Aren't Stanford and ND pretty much in the same situation? Win out with a no Big12 teams going undefeated and you're in, with both needing Baylor to lose but may squeeze in past an undefeated Okie St. How does Stanford then have a 96% chance of making the playoff if they win out where ND only has a 74% chance of making it in if they win out?

Because Stanford gets another quality win over Utah in the CCG

 

[NDHoosier101]

Fair points. In the end I don't think it comes down to that though, there's a lot of big games left, it wouldn't surprise me if the B1G knocked itself out of the playoffs.

 

[rmilia1]

Fair points. In the end I don't think it comes down to that though, there's a lot of big games left, it wouldn't surprise me if the B1G knocked itself out of the playoffs in the end.

Well I hear Iowa's remain schedule means they can't possibly lose but I also hear they'll get beat by a million by any team from the East ( maybe more than a million ) so really if MSU or Michigan ( who apparently are both unbelievably awesome) can beat OSU then we know the B10 is screwed.

 

[Tharvot]

Fair points. In the end I don't think it comes down to that though, there's a lot of big games left, it wouldn't surprise me if the B1G knocked itself out of the playoffs in the end.

At this point, anything could happen. IMO, its more likely that the B12 knocks itself out in the coming weeks because I don't think any of the 3 remaining teams are going to run the table the rest of the way.

 

[Tharvot]

Well I hear Iowa's remain schedule means they can't possibly lose but I also hear they'll get beat by a million by any team from the East ( maybe more than a million ) so really if MSU or Michigan ( who apparently are both unbelievably awesome) can beat OSU then we know the B10 is screwed.

I think it would be really funny if the B1G got 2 teams in.

 

[rmilia1]

I think it would be really funny if the B1G got 2 teams in.

Well OSU is the only team that can get in with a loss so we are going to need you to take one for the team

 

[Tharvot]

Well OSU is the only team that can get in with a loss so we are going to need you to take one for the team

hmmmm....

i changed my mind

 

[Texas Jefe]

Interesting numbers: Baylor, Stanford, Oky State, and Iowa all have a much higher percentage of making playoffs (99,96,98,96% respectively) if they win out, versus if Notre Dame wins out (74%)

 

[Texas Jefe]

Thing is, though, not all of them will win out. Some will lose. But which ones?

 

[dennis580]

Oklahoma has an 87% of making the playoff if we win out. That is why I am not worried about us missing the playoff if we win out. I am far more worried about winning at Baylor this week which will be difficult.

Yes Texas Jefe some of the top teams will almost certainly get upset. Upsets happen all the time. Nobody knows which ones.

 

[uncfan103]

That thing lies. It says UNC has a 46% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. Their odds are much closer to a 0.000000000000000000031% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. There's is not a scenario in which UNC gets in.

 

[Deep Creek]

Fair points. In the end I don't think it comes down to that though, there's a lot of big games left, it wouldn't surprise me if the Big 12 knocked itself out of the playoffs.

FIFY

 

[NDHoosier101]

That thing lies. It says UNC has a 46% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. Their odds are much closer to a 0.000000000000000000031% chance of making the playoffs if they win out. There's is not a scenario in which UNC gets in.

Cmon now, maybe every team in the top 50 will lose twice, then y'all will at least be a 4 seed.