Second Half Predictions

[Darkstone42]

Since we're baseball-less for a couple more days, let's talk about the upcoming second half. Make any predictions you have concerning any topic of your choosing.

Here are mine:

The Bucs regress to a solid pace, not the 100-win pace from earlier this season, but something closer to an 85-90 win pace. Their post-break record will fall somewhere between 36-33 and 38-31, pushing their final record to 92-70 to 94-68, good for the second Wild Card spot in the NL.

They'll add a decent bat like Aoki or a similar player and a middle reliever without giving up significant prospects, and the additions will contribute. There will also be a couple bench upgrades, and we'll see no more of Inge or Snider.

 

[element1286]

Jeff Locke, Mark Melancon, and Grilli come back to earth a bit.

Snider, Jones, and McKenry stop sucking. The Bucs pick up a infield bat, and a reliever for almost nothing at the deadline.

 

[sychmd]

cutch starts to hit with more power.
alvarez continues with consistency at cleanup but powre slows down and ends up with 33 HR.
marte tanks or hits 20HR, 15 3B and 35 2B as he moves to the number 2 hole because they get an actual leadoff hitter.
tabata continues to grow
snider, mcK, fade
inge is gone.
jones feels the magic.
t sanchez gets some PT as martin conitues to get tired and provides little offense.
presley or lambo provide a jolt when one of the OF goes on the DL, making snider expendable.
mercer continues to be solid, and a little more pop.

walker ??????? can he ever stay healthy and has his peak passed and we missed on selling high a couple years ago. i hope not for the local kid but get a bad vibe. he could be a great 2 hole hitter being a switch hitter and all, but ......

pitchers:
grilli's FB not in high 90's the last 10 outings. a little concerned as a couple more BB also,
melancon is a stud and might get some 9th inning work if grilli needs a blow.
wilson is a stud and might even become a starter again, especially if morton doesnt get it.
grilli closer next year, then melancon and wilson the 8th/9th in 2015 if wilson not a starter.
liriano has it all back and on fire.
burnett pitches good enough to lose more than he should and we dont bring him back.
locke regresses but only slightly as he has an aura about him and he uses the whole plate.
if cole doesnt throw heat up and in he will go to the minors before the year is out.

 

[Illinest]

-Grilli will start to wear down a bit and will blow saves here and there but will still do okay overall.
-Tabata will remember that he's lazy and start to suck again.
-The pirates will confound everyone by trading for another wandy type starter. A little later it will be announced that wandy is having surgery and won't be back. Cole will be shut down for inning count and then we will know why it was necessary to add a starter.
-The pirates will make a trade for a rental bat but it won't be a big upgrade. Rios or schierholtz or someone like that.
-We will have arguments about whether it was wise to part with kingham and hanson.
-Of the group that includes gabby sanchez, presley, snider, mckenry and jones - at least 1 of them will be moved for a reliever of some sort. Possibly one or two more will depart in the other trades depending on who we get.
-Between locke, liriano and burnett - one of them will start to get knocked around. That pitcher and charlie morton will combine with a tiring grilli to start losing us some games that we had been winning. Most of the second half will resemble the last few series before the all star game with an overall record close to .500 but at some point there will be an extended streak of either hot or cold.

If hot then we end up with 95 wins and a wild card spot.
If cold then we have a stressful final 2 weeks of waiting for win number 82, which we will eventually get but we won't make the playoffs.

 

[element1286]

-The pirates will confound everyone by trading for another wandy type starter. A little later it will be announced that wandy is having surgery and won't be back. Cole will be shut down for inning count and then we will know why it was necessary to add a starter.

Was thinking about this the other day, hopefully they don't go the Strasburg-shutdown route with Cole, since that was moronic, but innings limits is definitely a concern. Wonder if it would be a good idea to skip him once a month from here on out too keep them down as much as possible.

 

[thecrow124]

Was thinking about this the other day, hopefully they don't go the Strasburg-shutdown route with Cole, since that was moronic, but innings limits is definitely a concern. Wonder if it would be a good idea to skip him once a month from here on out too keep them down as much as possible.

Hurdle has already said Cole will not be on an innings limit, so I don't think that is much of a concern.

As for predictions, the Pirates win 13 more games this year and fulfill my preseason prediction of 69 wins.

 

[element1286]

Hurdle has already said Cole will not be on an innings limit, so I don't think that is much of a concern.

As for predictions, the Pirates win 13 more games this year and fulfill my preseason prediction of 69 wins.

Really, that seems strange for Hurdle to declare such a thing.

 

[tsmbaseball]

We've been talking about this a lot lately over in our neck of the woods. There's a good chance Pittsburgh's pitching is going to regress towards the mean. Their staff is boasting a ridiculously low (league-leading .269) BAbip and not giving up any long balls. Right now Pittsburgh is surrendering 3.34 runs per game and scoring only 3.84 runs per game.

It wouldn't take much to tip those scales in the other direction. I could see Pittsburgh acquiring a veteran bat like Alex Rios or even Raul Ibanez, and if Neil Walker improves in the second half, it should improve their lineup enough to ensure they reach 90 wins.

 

[packerzrule]

They'll add a decent bat like Aoki or a similar player and a middle reliever without giving up significant prospects, and the additions will contribute. There will also be a couple bench upgrades, and we'll see no more of Inge or Snider.

Aoki?!?!

WTF did I miss something?

 

[sychmd]

Really, that seems strange for Hurdle to declare such a thing.

hurdle says coles build and past workloads allow him to bypass an inning restraint.

except for the year they get drafted and sit out, pitchers pitch a lot of innings as well as throw on the side anyways. this whole inning limit is ridiculous and is part of why arm injuries are more prevalent.

until about 20 yrs ago, college pitchers start pitching 9 inning games starting around feb 1-10, then continue through till ncaa elimination around mid june. then they go and play in a summer league in alaska, cape, or back home.
they pitch between 5 and 6 games per month and occas pick up innings as closer on their in between BP days. that is 4 months x 5 g/m x 8 innings/game = 160. then pitchers started pitching one game / week, only 16-17 starts and now get about 115-130 IP.

then add on summer league. about 6-9 starts at 8IP/G and 50-60 more IP. that is about 165-190.
then, all colleges play a fall schedule, so that is another usually 5-7 innings per start x 8 starts (at duke we played sept 10 - nov 10) for another 50 IP.

this doesnt take into account very few colleges recognize pitch counts and none have innings rules like the little and babe ruth leagues now do.

part of the wussification of america in many areas of our society leading to the decay we now see - a different soapbox, sorry.

add on the many pitches on the indoor mounds or BP sessions between starts, and way more innings than they are allowed to throw with stronger, more mature, better prepared and workout bodies at the pro level.

i dont understand how they went every 4th day and 7-9 IP, 250-300IP/yr in the 50's into the early 80's and then since then, only the DH has allowed IP to stay in the 230 and up range for just several pitchers per year. i can see specialization having a stud in the pen, but that doesnt mean a starter can go as long with as many pitches or innings as in the past.

 

[element1286]

We've been talking about this a lot lately over in our neck of the woods. There's a good chance Pittsburgh's pitching is going to regress towards the mean. Their staff is boasting a ridiculously low (league-leading .269) BAbip and not giving up any long balls. Right now Pittsburgh is surrendering 3.34 runs per game and scoring only 3.84 runs per game.

It wouldn't take much to tip those scales in the other direction. I could see Pittsburgh acquiring a veteran bat like Alex Rios or even Raul Ibanez, and if Neil Walker improves in the second half, it should improve their lineup enough to ensure they reach 90 wins.

Yes, good points. Although there is regression, and collapse. The Pirates HR/FB isn't that low, it's top 10 in the league, but they also play in a park that is death to RH power hitters, while at the same time they have the lowest FB rate in the league, while also having the highest GB rate, all good things. Toss on top of that a well above average IF defense, and their babip is low, but not insane. .265 is low, .300 is standard depending on staff makeup, but they aren't gonna have a .340 babip just cause 'regression!'

 

[sychmd]

Yes, good points. Although there is regression, and collapse. The Pirates HR/FB isn't that low, it's top 10 in the league, but they also play in a park that is death to RH power hitters, while at the same time they have the lowest FB rate in the league, while also having the highest GB rate, all good things. Toss on top of that a well above average IF defense, and their babip is low, but not insane. .265 is low, .300 is standard depending on staff makeup, but they aren't gonna have a .340 babip just cause 'regression!'

good points element. our staff is good at occ necessary K's and getting GB. we give up few HR and PNC not good of RH batters.

our biggest struggle that bites us occasionally is
1. walks, especially to leadoff hitters and to weaker hitters. given our pitching strength, this seems to be higher than expected.
2. hurdle taking pitchers out to soon causing us to use to many per game. a lot better from a team and ind standpoint to let one guy pitch 1 inning than 2 or 3 guys split it to play the matchup game. also, let some go 2 IP and then can use less often than 2 guys pitching 1 inning. i understand, that needing to PH for the P position dictates some of that, but sometimes he changes pitchers in the middle of an inning, with the P who started the inning not having issues, and knowing the P position is batting the next bats.
hurdle taking out starters too early and taking out relievers too early is going to burn out our BP. we have reserves, but the transition to the reserves will be messy.
nothing is more disheartening, losses mo, and erodes confidence than losing games you are ahead and counting them as wins when your BP falters and cant finish.

 

[element1286]

hurdle says coles build and past workloads allow him to bypass an inning restraint.

except for the year they get drafted and sit out, pitchers pitch a lot of innings as well as throw on the side anyways. this whole inning limit is ridiculous and is part of why arm injuries are more prevalent.

until about 20 yrs ago, college pitchers start pitching 9 inning games starting around feb 1-10, then continue through till ncaa elimination around mid june. then they go and play in a summer league in alaska, cape, or back home.
they pitch between 5 and 6 games per month and occas pick up innings as closer on their in between BP days. that is 4 months x 5 g/m x 8 innings/game = 160. then pitchers started pitching one game / week, only 16-17 starts and now get about 115-130 IP.

then add on summer league. about 6-9 starts at 8IP/G and 50-60 more IP. that is about 165-190.
then, all colleges play a fall schedule, so that is another usually 5-7 innings per start x 8 starts (at duke we played sept 10 - nov 10) for another 50 IP.

this doesnt take into account very few colleges recognize pitch counts and none have innings rules like the little and babe ruth leagues now do.

part of the wussification of america in many areas of our society leading to the decay we now see - a different soapbox, sorry.

add on the many pitches on the indoor mounds or BP sessions between starts, and way more innings than they are allowed to throw with stronger, more mature, better prepared and workout bodies at the pro level.

i dont understand how they went every 4th day and 7-9 IP, 250-300IP/yr in the 50's into the early 80's and then since then, only the DH has allowed IP to stay in the 230 and up range for just several pitchers per year. i can see specialization having a stud in the pen, but that doesnt mean a starter can go as long with as many pitches or innings as in the past.

I know we don't agree on this, there is some rationale behind the innings limits, but don't really want to get into it. But I just thought it was strange that Hurdle would say such a thing when it isn't his call, it's NH's decision to make in the end.

 

[tsmbaseball]

Toss on top of that a well above average IF defense, and their babip is low, but not insane. .265 is low, .300 is standard depending on staff makeup, but they aren't gonna have a .340 babip just cause 'regression!'

Yep. I definitely agree with that 'just because... regression' statement. But I also think it's something to consider when you look at the direction the Pirates could go in the second half. If their offense is regressing to the mean [positively], as a lot of people suggest, BAbip a good statistic to keep an eye on for negative regression.

And, as previously stated, unless their bats heat up, it's a very slim margin between wins and losses with this Pirates club.

 

[sychmd]

I know we don't agree on this, there is some rationale behind the innings limits, but don't really want to get into it. But I just thought it was strange that Hurdle would say such a thing when it isn't his call, it's NH's decision to make in the end.

sure, some rationale and it should be customized. but blanket over compensating to the point that the arms are underconditioned, makes them a set up for the tendon and ligament damage that occurs. medical principles and kinesiologists have been pointing out this common sense and empirical process over the last several years.

 

[mtm166]

I think the Bucs come back to earth a bit, but play well enough to nab the first wild card spot. A playoff game in PNC Park. Can't say I ever thought I'd say that. Cutch and Pedro will carry the team in the second half. Cutch hits about .315 and Pedro winds up with 40+ HRs. Starting pitching remains strong even without Wandy, but the bullpen and Grilled Cheese regress a bit. I think we get Ibanez as a bench bat.

 

[thedddd]

I see a regression in the pitching. The hitting will stay status quo and the bench has to change.
The one thing I don't see is the 2nd half collapse.

What about finally dumping McKenry and calling up the AAA all star game Top Star in Sanchez. Heck with Martin's ability to play other positions there could come days where both are on the field/batting order at the same time.

As for another name that just happened to start popping up is Justin Morneau. Yeah he is a lefty but is hitting righties better than Jones.

 

[mtm166]

I think Sanchez might be even more a defensive liability than The Fort, if that's even possible.

 

[thedddd]

I think Sanchez might be even more a defensive liability than The Fort, if that's even possible.

Yeah that is tough but I wonder if the bat is enough to make up for that?

 

[mtm166]

Let's just hope Martin doesn't get hurt....i think I still take the Fortif I have to pick between him and Sanchez